2013 Mar Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2,236 ! ; Volt 1,478

[TomT]

They have to be higher. The Leaf can't survive long-term at those kind of sales numbers...

I still believe that the battery degradation and TMS issue is affecting sales more than they care to admit...

Ghosn went on to say that a level of around 2,000 monthly sales was NOT where Nissan expected to settle--implying that higher volumes were in the cards for the rest of the year...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

They have to be higher. The Leaf can't survive long-term at those kind of sales numbers...

I still believe that the battery degradation and TMS issue is affecting sales more than they care to admit...

Ghosn went on to say that a level of around 2,000 monthly sales was NOT where Nissan expected to settle--implying that higher volumes were in the cards for the rest of the year...

i expect them to do at least 2000 a month with a few 3,000 months come Summer.

 

[evnow]

So, BEVs beat PHEVs by a solid 50%. So much for the "quick victory" of PHEVs everyone pronounced earlier.

Leaf : 2,236(653)
Model S : 2,150* (1,400*)
FFE : 180 (158)
i : 31 (337)
RAV4 EV : 133 (52)
Fit EV : 23 (15)

Total EVs : 4,753 (2,615)


Volt : 1,478 (1,626)
PIP : 786 (693)
C-Max Energi : 494 (334)
Fusion Energi : 295 (119)
Accord PHEV : 26 (17)

Total PHEVs : 3,079 (2,789)

 

[evnow]

Ghosn went on to say that a level of around 2,000 monthly sales was NOT where Nissan expected to settle--implying that higher volumes were in the cards for the rest of the year...

I don't agree with that interpretation. I think Nissan expects the numbers to settle down at a lower level. Ghosn predicted a 12k figure for 2013 ... which may be bit pessimistic.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Ghosn went on to say that a level of around 2,000 monthly sales was NOT where Nissan expected to settle--implying that higher volumes were in the cards for the rest of the year...

I don't agree with that interpretation. I think Nissan expects the numbers to settle down at a lower level. Ghosn predicted a 12k figure for 2013 ... which may be bit pessimistic.

12K? wow, he has lost faith. I was expecting 20-30,000 this year. over 100,000 next year. i think he is greatly underestimating the effect of the price cuts

... i need another shot of koolaide!

:shock:

 

[evnow]

12K? wow, he has lost faith. I was expecting 20-30,000 this year. over 100,000 next year. i think he is greatly underestimating the effect of the price cuts

... i need another shot of koolaide!

:shock:

He said 20% increase over '12 - which makes it 12k.

If Leaf sells 2k per month for the rest of the year, we will get to about 20k. My forecast was 18k.

We should expect that after a couple of months of heavy sales, the numbers will fall back a bit to 1,500 to 1,750.

 

[evnow]

c-max 494
fusion 295
focus ev 180

Thanks.

Looks like C-Max Energi is feeling the after effects of all those MPG controversies. Fusion Energi is selling more than I was expecting - though that could just be the initial demand. Ofcourse, FFE will continue to suffer given Ford's attitude.

 

[GRA]

I'm not surprised by this since I think many have been waiting for the heat pump in the LEAF and SV is the cheapest way to get one.

Agreed, that and the 6.6 charger. If you live in a mild climate to which the Leaf is most suited, the heat pump is a no-brainer. OTOH, if you live in Frostbite Falls, it's not likely to make a difference in the winter when you really need the efficiency. If Nissan had made the heat pump an option on the S, I expect we would see it taking a much higher % of sales. Here in the Bay Area, I tell anyone who asks me to go for the SV to get the heat pump, if they will be using the car anywhere near its max. range.

Do not forget that the S has no cruise control...either standard or as an option. Was as big as factor as the heat pump and 6.6 charger for me.

Yes, that's an issue for me as well, even though the car has less than a 1 hour practical range on the freeway. But I think the charger and heat pump are probably more critical to the decision for most people.

 

[evnow]

Great numbers for BEV, not so good for PHEV. Now BEVs have outsold PHEV for the month & quarter.

 

[scottf200]

c-max 494 fusion 295 focus ev 180

Thanks.Looks like C-Max Energi is feeling the after effects of all those MPG controversies. Fusion Energi is selling more than I was expecting - though that could just be the initial demand. Ofcourse, FFE will continue to suffer given Ford's attitude.

Regular HEV C-Max is doing well.

494 (13.2%) PHEV C-Max Energi
3275 (86.8%) HEV C-Max
3769 (100%) total

From goodcarbadcar sales tables:

Prius V| Ford C-Max Sales Figures
2,769 | 3,182 - October
2,690 | 4,848 - November
2,992 | 4,310 - December
2,522 | 2,725 - January '13
2,543 | 3,183 - February
3,460 | 3,769 - March

 

[scottf200]

Great numbers for BEV, not so good for PHEV. Now BEVs have outsold PHEV for the month & quarter.

I think we are certainly just in a 2nd cycle of early adopters.

There is really 3 categories (4 if look at major diffs of PHEVs, 5 if you include CARB vehicles).

Putting a ~75 mile LEAF with a 200+ mile luxury Model S really is crazy when talking about adoption and buyers of BEVs when the most common concern discussed in articles/consumers ... "range anxiety". These "100 mile" in anything but modest weather is not enough.

1.0 - LRAW BEV (long range all weather - Tesla)
1.5 - MRAW BEV (mid range all weather -RAV4)
2.0 - SR BEV (short range - LEAF, FFE, etc)
3/4 - SR PHEV (short range - Volt)
3/4 - TR PHEV (tiny range - PiP, Accord, Ford C-Max E, etc)

 

[RegGuheert]

Putting a ~75 mile LEAF with a 200+ mile luxury Model S really is crazy when talking about adoption and buyers of BEVs when the most common concern discussed in articles/consumers ... "range anxiety". These "100 mile" in anything but modest weather is not enough.

Given that the LEAF has outsold all of the other cars in that list worldwide, perhaps "price anxiety" is also a concern.

 

[evnow]

There is really 3 categories (4 if look at major diffs of PHEVs, 5 if you include CARB vehicles).

I can understand why Volt fans are disappointed, but having more categories tells us nothing useful.

 

[scottf200]

There is really 3 categories (4 if look at major diffs of PHEVs, 5 if you include CARB vehicles).

I can understand why Volt fans are disappointed, but having more categories tells us nothing useful.

That's funny. So you think LEAF buyers and Tesla Model S buyers are same (motivation, range concerns, etc) and indicate BEV adoption to the mainstream. Perfect example of using statistics to mislead / lie. :-( Well played.

 

[TonyWilliams]

There is really 3 categories (4 if look at major diffs of PHEVs, 5 if you include CARB vehicles).

I can understand why Volt fans are disappointed, but having more categories tells us nothing useful.

That's funny. So you think LEAF buyers and Tesla Model S buyers are same (motivation, range concerns, etc) and indicate BEV adoption to the mainstream. Perfect example of using statistics to mislead / lie. :-( Well played.

You can make as many categories as you like, and the number remain the same. That's all he said.

None of these cars, except a straight Prius hybrid, are mainstream.

 

[KJD]

When you look at the combined numbers for Jan, Feb and March, it looks like the most expensive car, Tesla, comes out on top.

That brings up the question of what did these new Tesla drivers have before the Model S ?

More specifically how many were Volt drivers vs LEAF drivers vs never had a plug in car before ?

 

[evnow]

That's funny. So you think LEAF buyers and Tesla Model S buyers are same (motivation, range concerns, etc) and indicate BEV adoption to the mainstream. Perfect example of using statistics to mislead / lie. :-( Well played.

The categories you suggested add no new information that we already don't know. You don't make half a dozen sub-categories when we have just a dozen models. If you want real examples of using stats to mislead, let me know, I can supply some

BTW, yes, buyers of S & Leaf overlap. We know a number of Leaf owners who already own S. Remember Leaf was the first family sized BEV available for purchase. So, all sorts of people got Leaf - and as the market offers more choices, people are going to switch. Just like I'll in the next year or so.

But the main point is that - we can't take it for granted like many predictions did, that PHEVs will surely outsell BEVs. There are a lot of variables - including price, model cycles, execution (Fisker vs Model S, for eg.).

 

[Reddy]

There is really 3 categories (4 if look at major diffs of PHEVs, 5 if you include CARB vehicles).

I can understand why Volt fans are disappointed, but having more categories tells us nothing useful.

evnow: Thanks for putting together that table. It really helps to quickly see what's going on in the electrified vehicle arena. I'm interested in this stuff, and I'm still getting confused with all of the new choices. Ten years ago we were talking about E-Vaporware instead of choices.

Scott, also thanks for the categories. I think they help when trying to convince newbies/wantabees about what is available. Too many choices can be confusing, especially when just learning. Below "tiny", I would also add "conventional hybrids". I don't know how to classify, perhaps "braking energy collectors".

This next two paragraphs may be for a separate thread, if others want to give it a go:
So when talking with electrified wantabees, I will probably start from the bottom of the list, since most people have heard of conventional hybrids. Unfortunately, the thing missing (and not always perfectly correlated with EV-range), is cost. Most people don't understand the total cost of ownership, and get stopped by sticker-shock. Even then, most people don't know how much electricity costs and how much cheaper it is to drive EV instead of ICE. Example: My '92 ICE, $9K purchase, $15K gas, $10K maintenance, $5K ins (all guesstimates). Rounded to $40K and165,000 mi equals $0.24/mi. Do people realize that they will spend 4x the sticker price over the next 20 yrs? I know I certainly didn't but I'm sure glad I bicycled all those years because I probably saved $50K on another car.

Everyone's situation is different and at least now there are choices that will fit for nearly everyone. So how do we get more electrified users? Cost, range, test drives, free rentals, more stations, quiet, nightly plug-in vs smelly gas?

 

[RegGuheert]

One thing is for sure, the amount of LEAF word-of-mouth going on is growing rapidly. While these things are pretty common in CA, they are virtually unheard of around here and in many other places around the U.S. For many people, the car is not real until they see one and it is not an option until someone they trust purchases one and has good experiences with it.

 

[mkjayakumar]

Absolutely. Your last point that average Joe has to see someone they know drive this for a while before they buy one is spot on.

Now a 3rd friend of mine went ahead and leased one - all in the month of march. They have all seen me driving this everyday all over town for over a year now with no issues and for a fraction of cost, when they were hauling their 16mpg SUVs and mini Vans.