2013 Feb Plugin Sales Discussion : Volt 1626 ; Leaf 653

[evnow]

One important thing is - Ford has made very little effort to market their plugins till now. The high Energi sales in the beginning probably got them to think they don't have to work hard to get those cars sold.

The story repeats one plugin after the other - from Leaf to Energi to Model S.

 

[GRA]

Monday it is...

Rounding out the list:

Ford Fusion Energi: 119
Ford C-Max Energi: 334
Ford Focus Electric: 158

So, Energi continues to disappoint.

Total for EVs 2,615 and total for PHEVs 2,789 ! Much closer than 1:2 some people were predicting.

The question I have is why? Is it because of inventory? Awareness of the options? Bad press (on the MPG front)? Or are people just recognizing that the Volt is superior to the CMax if it's large enough for you? There are other possibilities of course, and it may not be possible to know at this point. We'll just have to see if Ford can figure it out.

I think the C-Max Energi disappoints potential customers owing to its ridiculously small rear-seats-up cargo space for a CUV, plus the MPG controversy is probably hurting both it and the Fusion. Many people interested in a PHEV CUV may be holding off for the Outlander, as that appears to have good cargo space. Of course, a lot depends on how it's priced.

 

[adric22]

I think the C-Max Energi disappoints potential customers owing to its ridiculously small rear-seats-up cargo space for a CUV,

On a side note.. I saw my first C-Max Hybrid today in the wild and a few minutes later I came across a C-Max energi. And these were both right here in my neighborhood which is saying something. In the last two years I've seen a total of one other Leaf and 2 Volts in this area. If I include all of DF/W I've seen maybe 3 other Leafs, 10 or so Volts, and a Fisker Karma.

 

[smkettner]

It is more interesting and telling if you break this point out to:...

More interesting ? Not to me

Model S selling more than Leaf just tells me how the American middle class has fared compared to the rich.

I thought $40,000 LEAF and Volt were for the rich along with the $7,500 tax credit. Tesla buyers must be the uber rich

 

[evnow]

I thought $40,000 LEAF and Volt were for the rich along with the $7,500 tax credit. Tesla buyers must be the uber rich

Yes, Middle Class and Rich are always on a sliding scale, as you can see in the common 1% (or 99%) term.

It is also a self-description. Two people with the same income may classify themselfs as middle class or rich. A McCain may say rich is someone who makes above $5M a year - rest are middle class !

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_middle_class#Academic_models" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[scottf200]

Missed this Priuschat thread but just stumbled across it. Interesting back and forth. A few put some well thought out list down.

693-pip-sales-feb-13-in-us-whats-up
http://priuschat.com/threads/693-pip-sales-feb-13-in-us-whats-up.123015/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[MrIanB]

I am seeing a lot of new members this month leasing/buying 2013 models. If the inventory continues to grow, we will see a good bump in sales this month till the factory gets up to full production.

Congrats to all the members and owners.

Ian B

 

[adric22]

Missed this Priuschat thread but just stumbled across it. Interesting back and forth. A few put some well thought out list down.

I read through it.. Lots of varied opinions. The only thing I can offer in regards to the PiP:

• Not available in all states yet.
• EV range was disappointing. Most of us were expecting EPA range of 16 miles, and it ended up being 11. Sure it's only 5 miles different, but that is nearly 50% difference in capacity.
• Price is simply too high for no more than what you are getting. You can buy a Volt for almost the same price.

 

[evnow]

Price is simply too high for no more than what you are getting. You can buy a Volt for almost the same price.

I think Toyota simply misread the market in terms of price - ot knowingly they were milking the early adopters and will lower the price now (or give incentives).

 

[ERG4ALL]

It seems to me that if the Tesla is outselling the LEAF it ought to be further stimulus for Nissan to add optional batteries or bring out the next generation technology to be able to get a 200 mile vehicle at a price lower than Tesla. I for one don't consider myself a Tesla prospect, however, with two homes 185 miles apart, I have flirted with the idea of biting the bullet and being a Tesla prospect. Perhaps because Tesla has announced that they want to continue to drive their prices down and to develop a larger market, some day maybe I will be a Tesla customer if Nissan just focuses on the ~100 mile range.

 

[evnow]

It seems to me that if the Tesla is outselling the LEAF ....

Even Leaf had a long waiting list in the beginning ... Let us see how it shakes out.

One thing we should all realize is that in a compact car like Leaf there isn't much space for extra batteries. May be a few kWh more (30 ?) - but not for 85 kWh. I expect Nissan to add a REx at some point, like the i3.

 

[jackal]

It seems to me that if the Tesla is outselling the LEAF it ought to be further stimulus for Nissan to add optional batteries or bring out the next generation technology to be able to get a 200 mile vehicle at a price lower than Tesla. I for one don't consider myself a Tesla prospect, however, with two homes 185 miles apart, I have flirted with the idea of biting the bullet and being a Tesla prospect. Perhaps because Tesla has announced that they want to continue to drive their prices down and to develop a larger market, some day maybe I will be a Tesla customer if Nissan just focuses on the ~100 mile range.

+1.

It just confounds me that Nissan doesn't offer bigger battery pack option. Recently, they conducted a battery survey asking all the options once the battery degrade. However, the one answer I would like "upgrade to a bigger battery pack" isn't in the multiple choice.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

One thing we should all realize is that in a compact car like Leaf there isn't much space for extra batteries. May be a few kWh more (30 ?) - but not for 85 kWh. I expect Nissan to add a REx at some point, like the i3.

Three things I'd like to point out -
1) the 2013 Leaf took out some volume from the battery modules' packaging. If they take out just a little more, they could probably fit a few more modules in the same envelope.
2) the Leaf has a very deep trunk. I would suppose that many people would be willing to sacrifice some of that depth for some extra batteries. Together with (1), you could conceivably get closer to 40kWh in the Leaf's frame.
3) points 1) and 2) are only considering today's battery technology. Batteries will improve in density and cost. I have to believe that by the third gen Leaf (2018 or so), if not sooner, the next battery will be available. It's anyone's guess as to how much much energy they will be able to fit in a Leaf. 50kWh? 60?

But you're absolutely right that there's nowhere near enough room for 85kWh. But does the Leaf really need it?

 

[evnow]

Together with (1), you could conceivably get closer to 40kWh in the Leaf's frame.

We should be able to figure out how many modules can be fit into the trunk of Leaf - say by reducing the depth by 6".

My guess is this is exactly what we are going to see next year.

 

[mkjayakumar]

Interesting that the base 'Leaf S' model is $28K with a 24 kWh battery. Assuming $500 per kWh, to get to 40 kWh the Tesla Model S has, it would cost the Leaf an additional $8K.

So technically Nissan can release a Leaf with 40 kWh battery and 150 mile range for around $36K - which is $14K cheaper than a Tesla. Agreed Tesla has got bells and whistles, but for many range is the only consideration and I would jump in without hesitation on 150 mile range Leaf for $36K, which for all purposes is only $28.5K after Fed credit.

Go Nissan, Go.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

There are afew things i would like to point out as well.

What u r suggesting would put all the exra weigbt into one very small lacatikn located in an areathat is already maxed out in weight. So it aint as easy as moving thjngs an inch there and an inch hede to make it fit..
We will see larver packs in the LEAF but incrementally so until the weight of the current technology is reduced. A lot of people may wonder why more dont copy tesla withthe very large but thin platform and its simply cost. Tesla saved money by using them but i think that is a long term mistake. Nissan is spending the research dollars now and that has the potential to pay dividends later. They still have a lot to learn butthat is the only way u can learn is by doing it

One thing we should all realize is that in a compact car like Leaf there isn't much space for extra batteries. May be a few kWh more (30 ?) - but not for 85 kWh. I expect Nissan to add a REx at some point, like the i3.

Three things I'd like to point out -
1) the 2013 Leaf took out some volume from the battery modules' packaging. If they take out just a little more, they could probably fit a few more modules in the same envelope.
2) the Leaf has a very deep trunk. I would suppose that many people would be willing to sacrifice some of that depth for some extra batteries. Together with (1), you could conceivably get closer to 40kWh in the Leaf's frame.
3) points 1) and 2) are only considering today's battery technology. Batteries will improve in density and cost. I have to believe that by the third gen Leaf (2018 or so), if not sooner, the next battery will be available. It's anyone's guess as to how much much energy they will be able to fit in a Leaf. 50kWh? 60?

But you're absolutely right that there's nowhere near enough room for 85kWh. But does the Leaf really need it?

 

[SteveInSeattle]

A larger battery in the Leaf would require changes to the brakes, would slow acceleration, would raise the price, and would make the heavier vehicle LESS efficient in therms of MPGe rating, offset by higher range. It would also confuse the advertising message -- that most American's daily travel is well within the range of the Leaf.

I am a contrarian when it comes to this-- I think a cheaper, lighter Leaf with less range would be a better move. The net cost of the cheapest Leaf is now about $21,000 after Federal Tax credits, less in some states. I think a 60 mile Leaf for a net of $18,000 would sell in large dense urban areas.

If someone's commute is 100 to 150 miles R/T a day they are much better off with a plug-in hybrid given that there are too many variables that effect range and range deteriorates with age.

 

[smkettner]

A larger battery in the Leaf would require changes to the brakes, would slow acceleration, would raise the price, and would make the heavier vehicle LESS efficient in therms of MPGe rating, offset by higher range. It would also confuse the advertising message -- that most American's daily travel is well within the range of the Leaf.

If the additional range was optional the marketing position could remain the same.
I would have considered an optional 50% range increase.

 

[TomT]

If they have that length of a R/T commute, most plug-in hybrids will be basically worthless since you would be on gas most of the way due to their very limited electric range... The Volt would be best in terms of electric range but it's mileage when on gas is poor so it is not really a viable option either. Might as well just get a regular hybrid and save the money...

If someone's commute is 100 to 150 miles R/T a day they are much better off with a plug-in hybrid given that there are too many variables that effect range and range deteriorates with age.

 

[evnow]

If someone's commute is 100 to 150 miles R/T a day they are much better off with a plug-in hybrid given that there are too many variables that effect range and range deteriorates with age.

The larger range is really to make the range better in winter (for me). A 50% increase in '11-'12 range would make it possible to drive the Leaf in winter about 90 miles. If we leave out 10 to 15 miles that comes after LB, we are looking at a 75 mile safe range car in winter - so I can go to the airport or Lynnwood without having to switch off the heater.

I've always thought a 100 mile range car is all that I need. Just that, the 100 mile should be the winter freeway range.