2013 Mar Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2,236 ! ; Volt 1,478

[evnow]

Mar numbers come out on 2nd Apr. Feb numbers are in brackets.

Leaf : 2,236(653)
Model S : 2,150* (1,400*)
FFE : 180 (158)
i : 31 (337)
RAV4 EV : 133 (52)
Fit EV : 23 (15)

Total EVs : 4,753 (2,615)


Volt : 1,478 (1,626)
PIP : 786 (693)
C-Max Energi : 494 (334)
Fusion Energi : 295 (119)
Accord PHEV : 26 (17)

Total PHEVs : 3,079 (2,789)

 

[evnow]

I think Leaf will hit 1,000 ... Volt may be 2,000.

Your guess is ... ?

 

[MrIanB]

I am guessing Leaf numbers will be about same as last month and Volt will go over 2k units sold.

Ian B

 

[Zythryn]

Tesla has been saying they have been delivering 500/week the last 3 weeks and plan to set another record this week.
I know we don't get monthly numbers from them yet, but my guess for Tesla is 2001 for the month and 5,000 for the quarter.

 

[adric22]

I am guessing Leaf numbers will be about same as last mont and Volt will go over 2k units sold.

I'm going to be a little more optimistic for March. Mainly due to the advertisements and the return of some inventory. Although I must admit my local Nissan dealer had zero inventory until just a week ago. And now they have an entire "one" Leaf on the lot. Well, I haven't been by there in a week. I suppose they could have sold it and/or gotten more in.

 

[RegGuheert]

I'll guess LEAF will top 1000 for March simply due to sales of 2013s to those who have been waiting on them.

 

[KJD]

Due to lack of LEAF inventory for most of the month, I expect March sales to be fairly low.

Now that Tesla is getting their production line up to full speed, it will be interesting to see how they balance the waiting list vs delivery rate. Can they actually build and sell 500 cars a week going forward ?

As for the LEAF it might be April before we can see the full effect of the price cut on new sales. It should improve LEAF sales over last year, but how much is the big question.

 

[davidcary]

The Leaf availability is very regional. We started with inventory here by 3/1 and I bought like 3/6 and it was the 5th sold at that dealer. So I was expecting close to 2000. The same dealer sold zero in Feb. I went for a test drive and had to drive a 2012 used just to get an idea about the car.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

If the model s turns out to beat the leaf by a 2 to 1 margin that will be remarkable. So much for the who can afford a 100k car argument, looks like the answer is plenty.

 

[edatoakrun]

If the model s turns out to beat the leaf by a 2 to 1 margin that will be remarkable. So much for the who can afford a 100k car argument, looks like the answer is plenty.

We are in the midst of another asset price bubble for debt, equity, real estate, and yes, BEVs.

Easy credit and very low interest rates mean that a very large number of people can buy $"100k" cars today, whether they choose a BEV or ICEV.

When these $"100k" car buyers realize they have blown $50 k to drive their $"100k" cars for only a few years, they will discover whether they could actually "afford" them.

 

[evnow]

If the model s turns out to beat the leaf by a 2 to 1 margin that will be remarkable. So much for the who can afford a 100k car argument, looks like the answer is plenty.

Remember, Leaf had a waiting list that lasted almost a year too.

Let us see where Tesla is next year.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

When these $"100k" car buyers realize they have blown $50 k to drive their $"100k" cars for only a few years, they will discover whether they could actually "afford" them.

Tesla aside, seems like there's no shortage of folks who can afford cars approaching or exceeding six figures. Of course many are leases based on some healthy residuals, and often paid for with pre-tax dollars by people who write them off as a "business expense".

The plight of 2011-12 leaf buyers and lessees who overpaid by ~$6k will look like small potatoes if there is a similar effect with the model S and a 25k price cut comes down the line.

 

[edatoakrun]

When these $"100k" car buyers realize they have blown $50 k to drive their $"100k" cars for only a few years, they will discover whether they could actually "afford" them.

Tesla aside, seems like there's no shortage of folks who can afford cars approaching or exceeding six figures. Of course many are leases based on some healthy residuals, and often paid for with pre-tax dollars by people who write them off as a "business expense".

The plight of 2011-12 leaf buyers and lessees who overpaid by ~$6k will look like small potatoes if there is a similar effect with the model S and a 25k price cut comes down the line.

IMO, it will not require a S price cut (or much worse for S owners, a Tesla financial or market failure) to cause ownership of a Tesla S to be extremely expensive, a fact that seems to elude some Tesla S buyers.

The delusion that a Tesla S will escape rapid depreciation is only possible because there is currently no lease option (and so no lease residual valuation) provided by Tesla.

You should expect ~$50k depreciation in a few years, and (as Musk notes below) ~$85 to $90 k depreciation in 10 years on any ~$100k Car.

Elon Musk - Chairman, Product Architect, and CEO
...Right. We don’t need to lease a single car until maybe the second half of next year at the soonest. We could just be all sales. But we have had many discussions about residual value. The thing that supports residual value is just to make sure that the depreciation of the battery pack essentially matches that of the rest of the car. And if you had a gasoline car, after 10 years, it’s on the order of 10-15% of its original value. So it’s depreciated down to almost nothing...

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/9870-Model-S-Lease-Speculation-Thread" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There is reason to believe all BEVs will depreciate at somewhat slower rates than ICEVs (IMO, especially after the big hit over the initial years) as Musk goes on to point out.

 

[adric22]

There is reason to believe all BEVs will depreciate at somewhat slower rates than ICEVs (IMO, especially after the big hit over the initial years) as Musk goes on to point out.

If the batteries hold up, I agree. Also the cost of a replacement battery pack will have a huge effect on the value of a used EV. For example, if it costs $3,000 to replace a battery in a 10 year old Leaf, that Leaf will still be worth more money because people will know they can replace the battery at a reasonable cost and keep driving it for many years. The Leaf has proven to be extremely reliable (except for the battery in hot climates)

 

[Drivesolo]

Should be ~1900 for this month.

Autoblog article:
http://green.autoblog.com/2013/03/27/nissan-leaf-sales-new-record-month-march-1900-units/

During a side session at the New York Auto Show today, José Muñoz, the senior vice president for sales and marketing, US and Canada, for Nissan, revealed that the Nissan Leaf electric vehicle is having a tremendous sales month. The company doesn't yet know the specific number – there are a few selling days left, after all – but it appears that over 1,900 Leafs will be sold this month.

 

[Phoenix]

When these $"100k" car buyers realize they have blown $50 k to drive their $"100k" cars for only a few years, they will discover whether they could actually "afford" them.

Tesla aside, seems like there's no shortage of folks who can afford cars approaching or exceeding six figures. Of course many are leases based on some healthy residuals, and often paid for with pre-tax dollars by people who write them off as a "business expense".

The plight of 2011-12 leaf buyers and lessees who overpaid by ~$6k will look like small potatoes if there is a similar effect with the model S and a 25k price cut comes down the line.

The difference though is that Tesla S comes with lifetime supercharging. That should help in its re-sale value down the road. And the longer you keep the S (or any EV), the cheaper the car costs over time. As Road and Track said, most EVs cost twice their ICE counterpart. But the price of an S is comparable to its other luxury competitors with no need for gas prices.

While I still enjoy my LEAF, it did cost twice the Nissan ICE and no lifetime quick charging. But it is more energy efficient than the S, which is a big plus.

 

[PaulScott]

Should be ~1900 for this month.

Autoblog article:
http://green.autoblog.com/2013/03/27/nissan-leaf-sales-new-record-month-march-1900-units/

During a side session at the New York Auto Show today, José Muñoz, the senior vice president for sales and marketing, US and Canada, for Nissan, revealed that the Nissan Leaf electric vehicle is having a tremendous sales month. The company doesn't yet know the specific number – there are a few selling days left, after all – but it appears that over 1,900 Leafs will be sold this month.

We're selling a lot here in Downtown LA. We sold ten just over the weekend. We're getting great inventory, too. We have 25 in stock with more on the way. This car is a great value that people are just now waking up to.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

For example, if it costs $3,000 to replace a battery in a 10 year old Leaf, that Leaf will still be worth more money because people will know they can replace the battery at a reasonable cost and keep driving it for many years.

A 10 year old Leaf is still going to be a 10 year old car, with all the dents, dings, stains, worn upholstery, and cracked dashboard of any other car. Some things on it will stop working that aren't worth fixing. It will look sad sitting next to a new one. As long as it runs there will still be a buyer for it, but it won't be a person with a lot of money to spend, people with money will be the ones buying the new ones. Assuming the new ones have greater range and other new features, I'm betting a EVs will decline in desirability even more than gas cars. Time will tell.

 

[evnow]

Should be ~1900 for this month.

Autoblog article:
http://green.autoblog.com/2013/03/27/nissan-leaf-sales-new-record-month-march-1900-units/

During a side session at the New York Auto Show today, José Muñoz, the senior vice president for sales and marketing, US and Canada, for Nissan, revealed that the Nissan Leaf electric vehicle is having a tremendous sales month. The company doesn't yet know the specific number – there are a few selling days left, after all – but it appears that over 1,900 Leafs will be sold this month.

Wow - that is more than expected. Apparently the reduced price is having a large impact.

 

[PaulScott]

For example, if it costs $3,000 to replace a battery in a 10 year old Leaf, that Leaf will still be worth more money because people will know they can replace the battery at a reasonable cost and keep driving it for many years.

A 10 year old Leaf is still going to be a 10 year old car, with all the dents, dings, stains, worn upholstery, and cracked dashboard of any other car. Some things on it will stop working that aren't worth fixing. It will look sad sitting next to a new one. As long as it runs there will still be a buyer for it, but it won't be a person with a lot of money to spend, people with money will be the ones buying the new ones. Assuming the new ones have greater range and other new features, I'm betting a EVs will decline in desirability even more than gas cars. Time will tell.

It's important to consider the price of gas when making these projections. A ten year old LEAF needing a new battery might be highly desireable if gas is $6/gallon. We're finally starting to put a price on carbon, and ten years is a long time. I am of the opinion a used EV will look pretty good in ten years.