2013 Mar Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2,236 ! ; Volt 1,478

[edatoakrun]

There is really 3 categories (4 if look at major diffs of PHEVs, 5 if you include CARB vehicles).

I can understand why Volt fans are disappointed, but having more categories tells us nothing useful.

That's funny. So you think LEAF buyers and Tesla Model S buyers are same (motivation, range concerns, etc) and indicate BEV adoption to the mainstream. Perfect example of using statistics to mislead / lie. :-( Well played.

BEVs out sold PHEVs in the mid-priced market segment, and in the high-priced luxury vehicle market segment (Fisker, RIP), last month.

Though I am skeptical of Tesla's ability to maintain these sales levels in the long term, IMO, BEVs will probably outsell PHEVs in every month in the future, in both these market segments, and in others, as more PHEVs and BEVs hit the market.

A year from now, when the Volt-allac and Infiniti LE sales figure are out, I have little doubt BEVs will outsell PHEVs in the near-luxury segment also.

The problem for the ICEV conversion PHEV manufactures, is that high production costs and efficiency limitations inherent to the concept, mean they simply cannot compete in the sales market against BEVs, if also priced profitably for the manufactures. GM will not increase Volt production, because it can't afford to.

If we ever get multiple range extended BEVs on the market, that may change the outlook.

But so far, only BMW has one planned for release, and the I3 may be so hamstrung by CARB BEVx compliance, as to make it a footnote in BEV sales, rather than a class leader in REEV/BEVx sales.

 

[RegGuheert]

The problem for the ICEV conversion PHEV manufactures, is that high production costs and efficiency limitations inherent to the concept, mean they simply cannot compete in the sales market against BEVs, if also priced profitably for the manufactures. GM will not increase Volt production, because it can't afford to.

That's a good point. But I will point out that Nissan has a cost problem of their own: They now have three battery factories in place which are providing batteries for a single vehicle model which is not selling in huge quantities. They need to find a way to pay for these factrories and reduce the risk of not being able to pay for them through vehicle sales. That is why they announced they will be using these factories to produce batteries for PHEVs as well as EVs.

The landscape is treacherous for all vehicle manufacturers right now with such a gigantic shift underway. Deciding when and where to focus resources requires a bit more sheen on the crystal ball than it used to.

 

[jackal]

Putting a ~75 mile LEAF with a 200+ mile luxury Model S really is crazy when talking about adoption and buyers of BEVs when the most common concern discussed in articles/consumers ... "range anxiety". These "100 mile" in anything but modest weather is not enough.

I think you may be a little out of touch because the volt doesn't have QC. Around the bay area, there are more than a dozen QCs now. Range anxiety isn't exactly what it used to be back in 2011. I used to go back to my spare Prius for those few days where I needed to commute more..now I don't because those QCs fill in the gap very nicely.

So I would argue that the improving EV infrastructure is really starting to make a case for more BEVs..not less.

 

[TomT]

Not around here. They are exactly two QCs in range of me and both are in the same general direction...

So I would argue that the improving EV infrastructure is really starting to make a case for more BEVs..not less.

 

[edatoakrun]

... I will point out that Nissan has a cost problem of their own: They now have three battery factories in place which are providing batteries for a single vehicle model which is not selling in huge quantities...

What were LEAF sales worldwide in March?

If Nissan is selling ~ 8,000 to 10,000 LEAFs a month worldwide by this summer, would that be "huge"?

And when minivan and Infiniti production both come online later this year?

No question, Nissan has to sell a lot of BEVs to utilize those battery factories most efficiently.

Clearly, that is Nissan's plan, and we'll just have to wait to see how well it works out.

 

[TomT]

Not when you have a battery and EV plant capable of producing many times that number...

If Nissan is selling ~ 8,000 to 10,000 LEAFs a month worldwide by this summer, would that be "huge"?

 

[evnow]

Here is the entire deal.

 

[scottf200]

Here is the entire deal.

Well I'm glad you have not completely lost it and included a "all plug-in" count.

This is what we are up against. Add up the Nissan's, Ford's, Chevrolet's, etc number and see where they each stand.

23K Cruzes in one month. 15K Versas in one month. 107K top two trucks in one month!!! Do not look at the YTD (1st Quarter) column ... no look away.

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2013/04/march-2013-usa-best-selling-vehicles.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

Here is the entire deal.

Well I'm glad you have not completely lost it and included a "all plug-in" count.

All plug-in count has always been there.

Take a look at hybrids - 5 Hybrids outsold Leaf. Immidiate goal should be to get to #2 (since Prius is too big to catch any time soon).

 

[jackal]

This is what we are up against. Add up the Nissan's, Ford's, Chevrolet's, etc number and see where they each stand.

23K Cruzes in one month. 15K Versas in one month. 107K top two trucks in one month!!! Do not look at the YTD (1st Quarter) column ... no look away.

Why the pessimism? EVs are just starting out. It obviously cannot match the numbers by ICE which has been around for nearly a century. Just like cell phone, smart phones, VCRs .. it just needs a bit of time to go mainstream. In fact, I think ICE vehicle numbers will start going downhill from now. I would say the opposite...start looking closely at the YTD numbers.

 

[edatoakrun]

My guess is that the LEAF will be on the top 100 best selling models in list in the USA during this (April through June) quarter.

The #100 seller in the USA last quarter was the Fiat 500, with 9,612 sales.

...March 2013 was the Nissan Leaf's best U.S. sales month in the model's brief history. It's now America's 160th-best-selling vehicle through one quarter of 2013, up from 178th in February and 190th at this time last year...

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2013/04/march-2013-usa-vehicle-sales-rankings-by-model.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

Tesla Model S would be the #6 top selling luxury car in the US (defined as those above $45k).

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2013/04/march-2013-best-selling-luxury-vehicles-usa.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

I'm not sure I agree that "US gas prices dipping slightly last month" had the large effect that Danny King seems to believe, but it is significant, IMO, that LEAF sales were so strong in a month when gas prices made few headlines.

If gas prices are in the headlines again, later this Spring and Summer (as they have been almost every year recently) I certainly don't expect that will hurt LEAF sales...

Last month, sales of advanced-powertrain vehicles illustrated what appears to be a zero-sum gain situation: newer plug-in models and record sales of the Nissan Leaf battery electric were offset by a drop in demand for variants of the Toyota Prius hybrid, leaving overall green car sales virtually unchanged from March 2012...

Specifically, with US gas prices dipping slightly last month, Prius demand fell, with sales of the standard liftback and the Prius V wagon plunging 23 percent and 30 percent from a year earlier, respectively. Overall, Prius sales dropped 23 percent compared to 22,140, while sales of the Camry and Highlander Hybrids fell 17 percent and 21 percent, respectively...

General Motors also suffered, largely because a strong March 2012 month for the Chevrolet Volt extended-range plug-in meant a weak month, by comparison, in 2013, as sales dropped 35 percent to 1,478 units...

Also likely affected by falling gas prices was demand for advanced-powertrain vehicles from German automakers like Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche. VW's diesel sales were little changed from a year earlier at 8,521 vehicles, but Audi diesel sales plunged 49 percent to 312 units; and Porsche hybrid sales declined 66 percent – to just 57 units...

Finally, Nissan benefitted from its recent price drop for the 2013 Leaf as well as the production of the vehicle going into full swing at the company's Tennessee plant, almost quadrupling year-earlier sales numbers to a monthly record 2,236 units...

http://green.autoblog.com/2013/04/04/march-2013-flat-numbers-hide-turbulent-story-edition/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GRA]

I'm not sure I agree that "US gas prices dipping slightly last month" had the large effect that Danny King seems to believe, but it is significant, IMO, that LEAF sales were so strong in a month when gas prices made few headlines.

If gas prices are in the headlines again, later this Spring and Summer (as they have been almost every year recently) I certainly don't expect that will hurt LEAF sales...

What remains to be seen is how much of March's Leaf sales is due to pent-up demand by people holding off for the 2013, and how much to the lower prices - i.e. will the sales spike sustain itself.

 

[RegGuheert]

What remains to be seen is how much of March's Leaf sales is due to pent-up demand by people holding off for the 2013, and how much to the lower prices - i.e. will the sales spike sustain itself.

Agreed. I will again predict a pullback after a few months of 2013 LEAF sales. But I also predict steady growth after that pullback.

On the PHEV side of the equation, what remains to be seen is whether they are in a permanent or a temporary plateau. I suspect it is only temporary since I think a PHEV is the next logical step for many folks, but it is not the final step.

 

[edatoakrun]

If Euro sales were over 1,300 (presumably all 2012 MY) in March, worldwide LEAF sales were probably close to 5,000 last month.

Anyone seen that total figure reported?

On Monday, Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn presented himself before the media in Oslo, Norway to hype the soon-to-launch, updated 2013 Euro-spec LEAF.

Ghosn spoke of the automaker’s electric vehicle dominance in Norway (Europe’s electric vehicle capital, according to Nissan) and highlighted the changes the set the updated LEAF apart from previous versions.

The CEO spoke too of sales, stating:

“The momentum is building around electric cars.”

There he’s referring to the LEAF setting a sales record in the US in March at 2,236 units and of European LEAF sales surging to over 1,300 units in March...

http://insideevs.com/93-percent-of-owners-satisfied-with-nissan-leaf-90-percent-drive-leaf-daily/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

Same platform, seats five, and costs ~$~7,000 less than the Volt after the $7,500 tax credit.

IMO, the Cruze TDI (in addition to the Spark EV in California) is a GM product that could cannibalize future Volt sales.

When General Motors first released the new U.S. market 2014 Chevrolet Cruze Clean Turbo Diesel at the Chicago Auto Show this past February, it said that it estimated the car to return up to 42mpg (5.6 L/100km) on the highway. Now, the General has the official EPA estimates in its hands, with the Cruze Diesel rated at 46mpg (5.1 L/100km) highway.
The Detroit carmaker says this number is "better than any non-hybrid passenger car in America"...

Priced from $25,695, including an $810 destination charge, the Cruze diesel is powered by a 2.0-liter turbocharged unit delivering 148 horsepower (110 kW) and 258 lb-ft of torque (350 Nm), linked to a six-speed automatic transmission. It completes the 0-60mph (96km/h) sprint in a time of 8.6 seconds.

http://www.carscoops.com/2013/04/2014-chevrolet-cruze-diesel-epa-rated.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

That would be GMs fondest hope since the alternative would be a LEAF

Same platform, seats five, and costs ~$~7,000 less than the Volt after the $7,500 tax credit.

IMO, the Cruze TDI (in addition to the Spark EV in California) is a GM product that could cannibalize future Volt sales.

When General Motors first released the new U.S. market 2014 Chevrolet Cruze Clean Turbo Diesel at the Chicago Auto Show this past February, it said that it estimated the car to return up to 42mpg (5.6 L/100km) on the highway. Now, the General has the official EPA estimates in its hands, with the Cruze Diesel rated at 46mpg (5.1 L/100km) highway.
The Detroit carmaker says this number is "better than any non-hybrid passenger car in America"...

Priced from $25,695, including an $810 destination charge, the Cruze diesel is powered by a 2.0-liter turbocharged unit delivering 148 horsepower (110 kW) and 258 lb-ft of torque (350 Nm), linked to a six-speed automatic transmission. It completes the 0-60mph (96km/h) sprint in a time of 8.6 seconds.

http://www.carscoops.com/2013/04/2014-chevrolet-cruze-diesel-epa-rated.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

That would be GMs fondest hope since the alternative would be a LEAF

Same platform, seats five, and costs ~$~7,000 less than the Volt after the $7,500 tax credit.

IMO, the Cruze TDI (in addition to the Spark EV in California) is a GM product that could cannibalize future Volt sales.
...

You can't walk into a Chevy dealer and see a LEAF parked next to the GM products, so the comparison is not immediately available to buyers.

And I really think BEVs are a separate class of vehicles from hybrids, PHEVs, ICEVs, requiring dedicated platforms to succeed, something that only (and to various degrees) Mitsubishi, Nissan, Tesla, And (Soon) BMW comprehend.

In fact, I expect that NO other Auto manufacture in the near future will try to go head-to head with the LEAF with any BEV compliance car. Look how that's working out for Ford.

The most direct competitor (in size, class, capability and cost) to the LEAF is the Focus EV, which Ford is struggling to sell in minuscule numbers, and is probably losing somewhere between $10K and $20 K per sale, at the heavily discounted price required to move the product.

 

[scottf200]

2013 Nissan LEAF Hits A Sales Stumbling Block In Japan [in March]
http://insideevs.com/2013-nissan-leaf-hits-a-sales-stumbling-block-in-japan/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

USA sales are hard to analyze with our tax credit of $7,500 timing, with the new TN plant inventory boost, and new 2013 features. And buyers holder off until 2013 for these latter things.

Overall any good EV sales (USA Apr) help all plug-ins and getting it through the sometime customer narrow perspective and math.