2012 Aug Plugin Sales Discussion Thread: Volt-2,831;Leaf-685

[RegGuheert]

cars.com shows an inventory of 2433 cars. That is about 3 to 4 months worth.

I wonder when the 2013 model starts shipping. That is when Nissan will have a chance to shake up the Leaf market.

I heard a rumor that 2013 LEAFs may not ship until March, giving Nissan a chance to clear out the 2012s first. At that point, they might as well call them MY2014. :roll:

 

[RegGuheert]

Palmer also dismissed recent reports of battery problems in hot weather for the Leaf. A number of owners in America complained of reduced range during summer, but Palmer says the problem is a faulty battery level display.

"We don't have a battery problem," he says.

If they don't have a battery problem, then they should probably fix their customers' cars ASAP, since some of them have been getting rid of their LEAFs because they are having difficulty getting to work and back.

 

[JeffN]

The charge-sustain mileage of the Volt is poor vs. that of the Prius and the Volt requires premium.
If the commute goes beyond the Volt's AER range or aren't able to charge much/at all, then it seems the Volt isn't such a great choice. From http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/09/review-2012-toyota-prius-plug-in-hybrid/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;:

Let’s look at these numbers in terms of a commute. I drive 106 miles a day, and my commute involves city, highway and rural mountain roads. Starting with fuel economy without charging: the Volt averaged 33MPG, the Prius averaged 50 and the Prius plug-in averaged 52. (Credit the greater ability to regenerate for the improved figure.) With charging on both ends of my commute, the Volt averaged 40MPG, and the Prius plug-in averaged 72MPG.

Those numbers are implausible.

Assuming his reported 33 mpg in CS-only mode, he somehow charged the Volt at each end of his round trip but got only 20 total miles of EV range (86 miles at 33 mpg is around 40 mpg over 106 miles)?

 

[kmp647]

seems likely, all nw plant not ready yet, lots of inventory on the ground in the US that needs sell down

production will start slowly in January or Febuary

2013's on US dealers lots by march 2013

2012' most if not all gone by then

 

[evnow]

I think waiting for 6 more months for '13 models will only exacerbate Nissan's problems.

This also runs counter to all the talk about better sales numbers from "summer".

 

[cwerdna]

The charge-sustain mileage of the Volt is poor vs. that of the Prius and the Volt requires premium.
If the commute goes beyond the Volt's AER range or aren't able to charge much/at all, then it seems the Volt isn't such a great choice. From http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/09/review-2012-toyota-prius-plug-in-hybrid/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;:

Let’s look at these numbers in terms of a commute. I drive 106 miles a day, and my commute involves city, highway and rural mountain roads. Starting with fuel economy without charging: the Volt averaged 33MPG, the Prius averaged 50 and the Prius plug-in averaged 52. (Credit the greater ability to regenerate for the improved figure.) With charging on both ends of my commute, the Volt averaged 40MPG, and the Prius plug-in averaged 72MPG.

Those numbers are implausible.

Assuming his reported 33 mpg in CS-only mode, he somehow charged the Volt at each end of his round trip but got only 20 total miles of EV range (86 miles at 33 mpg is around 40 mpg over 106 miles)?

I wonder if it's a mistake. One of you Volt owners should post a comment. Not sure if the author will respond, describing his commute.

 

[Nubo]

I'll give credit where it's due -- GM seems to have gotten it right with Volt. I had my doubts and figured the complexity of engine plus EV drivetrain would be its Achilles' heel. But by all accounts the owners love 'em and they're working as advertised. A big Congratulations to GM for bending over backwards to guarantee satisfaction for its early adopters (looks over at Nissan...). Sure HOV access and other subsidies are part of the equation but expect very big things going forward once people wrap their heads around going to the gas station 4 times a year! :shock: . Say all you want about TCO, as we all know, the satisfaction of telling Big Oil to take a hike cannot be overestimated!

That said, I'm still glad I got my LEAF and I still prefer a car that NEVER goes to the gas station, and serves to push the technology for an all-electric future. But both approaches are valid and I'm glad Volt is succeeding, and maybe providing lessons for how to take care of customers who chose to adopt a new tech.

 

[Nubo]

around here, i dont feel safe unless i am on a bike trail where motorized vehicles of any kind are prohibited. bike lanes provide me ZERO comfort. i have had a half dozen bike/car collisions. only one that could be construed as slightly serious but only because i always assume the worst when cars are involved.

Yep - that's the reason I don't bike it. My solution to steep hills was to get some electric assist. But even in bike friendly Sound area we still have a lot of inconsiderate car drivers.

From personal experience, the solution to steep hills is two-fold.

- ride steep hills regularly
- don't be fat

I've been through all permutations of the above and the results are conclusive.

 

[Rusty]

"We don't have a battery problem," he says.

If they don't have a battery problem, then they should probably fix their customers' cars ASAP.

I always like to play "complete the sentence" when offered statements like the above."We don't have a battery problem," he says, "our customers have a battery problem." And, reading their warranty, he's probably right. Whether that's a good business decision or not I think will ultimately be left to the customers to decide.

 

[gsleaf]

I heard a rumor that 2013 LEAFs may not ship until March

I'm still predicting September or October.

 

[Jay]

I heard a rumor that 2013 LEAFs may not ship until March

I'm still predicting September or October.

For what it is worth I just spoke to Katherine at Nissan HQ a couple days ago about Smyrna production, and she said they don't have "no specific, hard date" yet, but it is still "on track" for year's end start of production...and they'd send me an update when they know.

Probably looking at late January/early February on the lots as a WAG, probably a little extra QC-holds before leaving the pen.

Imagine we'd know in another month's time what the targets are.

UPDATE: Don't know if anyone really cares, but Honda said they sold (or lease if you will) 9 Fit EVs in August. Mitsubishi i-MiEV rang in at 37

EDIT: as per stouty, should have said 'leased' not sold on the Fit EV-my bad, (=

 

[Stoaty]

EDIT/UPDATE: Don't know if anyone really cares, but Honda said they sold 9 Fit EVs in August.

I thought the Fit EV was lease only.

 

[RegGuheert]

For what it is worth I just spoke to Katherine at Nissan HQ a couple days ago about Smyrna production, and she said they don't have "no specific, hard date" yet, but it is still "on track" for year's end start of production...and they'd send me an update when they know.

Probably looking at late January/early February on the lots as a WAG, probably a little extra QC-holds before leaving the pen.

I'm not referring to when production in TN starts, but rather when the 2013 LEAF will first be sold. I heard *sales* management intends to hold off until the 2012s are sufficiently cleared from inventory.

If this rumor is true, it may indicate that there is something substantially different about the 2013 which would make moving 2012s very difficult.

Anyway, we will find out in due time.

 

[RegGuheert]

I thought the Fit EV was lease only.

Don't all leases by all manufacturers get reported as sales?

 

[Jay]

I thought the Fit EV was lease only.

Don't all leases by all manufacturers get reported as sales?

Yes they do, but we know what he was driving it. I changed my post to reflect. I know for myself, I just get in the habit of reporting everything as 'sales'

 

[RegGuheert]

Yes they do, but we know what he was driving it.

Sorry, but I'm not sure I do.

O.K. So we know that all Fits are leases. But what do we compare that with? Do we have the ratios of leases to sales for other vehicles like the Volt or the LEAF? It seems to me that BOTH Volt AND LEAF "sales" are trending toward the lease end of the spectrum, but can anyone produce numbers?

 

[evnow]

From personal experience, the solution to steep hills is two-fold.

- ride steep hills regularly
- don't be fat

I've been through all permutations of the above and the results are conclusive.

I don't have much experience being fat - but one thing for sure is, not having to negotiate rains 10 months a year helps ;-)

 

[Nubo]

From personal experience, the solution to steep hills is two-fold.

- ride steep hills regularly
- don't be fat

I've been through all permutations of the above and the results are conclusive.

I don't have much experience being fat - but one thing for sure is, not having to negotiate rains 10 months a year helps ;-)

I feel fortunate to live where the rains are less pervasive. On the other hand it's interesting that Seattle, Portland, and Minneapolis all have thriving bike cultures despite their apparent climactic disadvantages.

This winter I'm looking at needing to bike commute more often than in winters' past, to get ready for a major ride next Spring. We'll see if I'm all wet.

 

[SanDust]

Those numbers are implausible.

Yes. Charging at both ends he's get about 80 miles of electric range, probably more given his Prius numbers. Then he's go 26 miles more using gas. In order to only get 40 MPG he'd have to average under 10 MPG for those 26 miles.

Maybe he's off by a zero and he meant 400 MPG? That's possible and a lot more realistic than 40 MPG.

 

[Deleted member 1622]

I'm pleasantly surprised by the 74% jump in Leaf sales in August from the previous month (up from 393 to 685). It's pretty clear that the Volt and other Plug-in Hybrids are going to outsell it on a regular basis now, but I think that's just fine if the public can't let go of its gas pumps quite yet. It's better than nothing, and most people will burn almost no gas even with a 40 mile EV range.
The challenge, though, is to keep BEV sales going in the positive direction, and keep overall sales growth percentage year to year (let's say using 2012 as a base year) on par with the Plug-ins. If it goes the other way, and we continue to get a few hundred sold per month, I'm afraid that the large car companies will drop it altogether and focus only on making better Plug-ins. Yes, Nissan has made a huge investment. No, it wouldn't be the first time a bold move failed and a big company gave up on something revolutionary.
The poor debut months for the Leaf's electric cousins, the Focus and Fit, are not a good omen (I mean, NINE total leases for the Fit, really?).
I've had to consider lately whether maybe this turn to the Plug-ins would be a good thing... why not sell the car that can beat an ICE outright in sales, right? But the more I think about it, the death of BEVs (again!) would stifle battery innovation, and make people think it's still OK to burn gas and pollute the planet, even if you're doing it more efficiently.
Keep hope alive, Leafers!

Josh