2012 Nov Plugin Sales Discussion : Volt 1,519 ; Leaf 1,539

[TonyWilliams]

Rav4 = 2600 (and they lose $10,000 per car)
...
Only the Rav4 is a step over the bare minimum, in my opinion. All the others, including LEAF, put in enough batteries to call it a 100 mile car, which virtually none will ordinarily do.

The above two go hand in hand.

The current state of the batteries do not allow much higher capacity battery to be put into a sub $40k car.

And my point was its available to go 100 plus real earth miles, and they didn't have to offer that. They could have put a 30kWh battery in, called it the same 100 mile car, gotten a 70 mile EPA rating, and not lost $10,000 per sale.

 

[Jay]

Not yet broken out between the hybrid and plug-in (Energi) sales but C-Max sold even more in November ...

"C-MAX Hybrids sales gain momentum with 4,848 vehicles in November, a 52 percent increase compared with October; Ford posts best-ever month for electrified vehicle sales"

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/12/03/5027048/c-max-lineup-success-helps-drive.html

Ford is annoying. Usually I can grab everyone's numbers by early afternoon, but you (usually) have to wait on the call/expanded stats the day after to get the Focus Electric, and now the C-Max Energi's numbers. Toyota is only mildly annoying as they make you work for it (with regards to the RAV4 EV) as well, but at least can get done the same day.

 

[RegGuheert]

And my point was its available to go 100 plus real earth miles, and they didn't have to offer that. They could have put a 30kWh battery in, called it the same 100 mile car, gotten a 70 mile EPA rating, and not lost $10,000 per sale.

Good point.

I wonder if they saved some engineering money with Tesla by allowing them to basically field the base Model S drivetrain, including batteries, prior to the Tesla's rollout. Or, perhaps Tesla simply did not have the engineering resources on hand to design another battery system for the RAV 4 in time.

 

[TonyWilliams]

And my point was its available to go 100 plus real earth miles, and they didn't have to offer that. They could have put a 30kWh battery in, called it the same 100 mile car, gotten a 70 mile EPA rating, and not lost $10,000 per sale.

Good point.

I wonder if they saved some engineering money with Tesla by allowing them to basically field the base Model S drivetrain, including batteries, prior to the Tesla's rollout. Or, perhaps Tesla simply did not have the engineering resources on hand to design another battery system for the RAV 4 in time.

I don't know. Toyota paid almost $40k per car ($100 million for 2600 cars).

I did look at a prototype, and it had two separate packs underneath. My production car has one, so there are differences in packaging.

I don't know how much data Tesla is gaining with a dumbed down Model S-40 (154hp/270 torque in Rav4). I suspect they just did the deal because they had no income, and it was "easy", and Toyota owns a chunk of Tesla, and they got an awesome deal from Toyota on their Fremont factory.

Elon Musk gave the Toyota dude a Roadster in thanks.

 

[Jay]

Honda Fit EV set an all-time best....26 sold

 

[Jay]

1,766 Prius plug-in

 

[DaveEV]

Both numbers IMO are disappointing. I was hoping Volt would maintain its last months numbers and Leaf would get closer to 2k given the incredibly cheap lease deals they have now

Inventory (going by cars.com) for the Volt seems lower than what I've seen in the past - ~3600 cars. IIRC inventory has been up around 5000 cars in the past.

At 1600/month, cars.com is also only reporting a 1-month supply for the LEAF. Also pretty low.

Look at this ad Nissan is running on cars.com now:


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Good to see them pushing the bottom line price - I suspect the high MSRP turns off a number of customers - that's an area where turning the tax credit into an instant rebate would really help sales, IMO.

I think we'll see 1000-1500 LEAFs / mo until the 2013 is released - how sales do after that really depends on how aggressive Nissan is with the MSRP. From the Japan specs it's clear that Nissan spent a good amount of effort in reducing manufacturing costs.

As far as the Volt - GM really needs to figure out how to get the MSRP down there, too.

The C-MAX Energi had real potential to grab some decent market-share as the Hybrid is doing, but IMO the lack of rear cargo room is a deal-killer for man people who want 5-passenger capacity compared to a Volt. And after incentives (tax credit and dealer incentives), the Energi is basically the same price as the Volt but with half the EV range.

 

[evnow]

And my point was its available to go 100 plus real earth miles, and they didn't have to offer that. They could have put a 30kWh battery in, called it the same 100 mile car, gotten a 70 mile EPA rating, and not lost $10,000 per sale.

And my point is, if they are willing to lose 10k, it will be a compliance car.

 

[Jay]

completed out what we can today

i-miev 42
rav 4 ev 32

 

[scottf200]

Statik,

Thanks for the Volt article:
Chevrolet Volt Sales Cut In Half For November As Heavy Incentive Programs End
http://insideevs.com/chevrolet-volt-sales-cut-in-half-for-november-as-heavy-incentive-programs-end/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

While many will see this month’s result as a failure of sorts, it really is not; at least if you looking at it from General Motor’s point of view. November was the month that the General finally showed some restraint and put an end to layering multiple incentives on the Volt to move excess inventory, partially due to low levels after a 4 week shut down of their assembly facility in October to start work on the 2013 Malibu.

And the sales summary:
November 2012 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card
http://insideevs.com/november-2012-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Jay]

Statik,

Thanks for the Volt article:
Chevrolet Volt Sales Cut In Half For November As Heavy Incentive Programs End
http://insideevs.com/chevrolet-volt-sales-cut-in-half-for-november-as-heavy-incentive-programs-end/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

While many will see this month’s result as a failure of sorts, it really is not; at least if you looking at it from General Motor’s point of view. November was the month that the General finally showed some restraint and put an end to layering multiple incentives on the Volt to move excess inventory, partially due to low levels after a 4 week shut down of their assembly facility in October to start work on the 2013 Malibu.

And the sales summary:
November 2012 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card
http://insideevs.com/november-2012-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks for checking it out..."sales reporting day" is a busy one for me trying to get all the numbers out. Unfortunately, it keeps me busy enough that I am too burned out to write anything else, lol.

I do like the numbers though. Good or bad, quantifiable results are fun (at least to me).

 

[MrIanB]

Statik;

Are you able to get orders/delivery numbers monthly for the Tesla to see how they compare or do they not release those numbers?

Tia,

Ian B

 

[TonyWilliams]

And my point was its available to go 100 plus real earth miles, and they didn't have to offer that. They could have put a 30kWh battery in, called it the same 100 mile car, gotten a 70 mile EPA rating, and not lost $10,000 per sale.

And my point is, if they are willing to lose 10k, it will be a compliance car.

It is and would be a compliance car with either battery pack.

The smaller, yet fully compliant, battery might not cost them money to sell the car, while the current car most certainly does.

Both meet CARB ZEV guidelines.

 

[Jay]

Statik;

Are you able to get orders/delivery numbers monthly for the Tesla to see how they compare or do they not release those numbers?

Tia,

Ian B

Tesla doesn't give out the numbers specifically, however there is a lot of SEC filings, line updates, tweets, VIN sequencing, etc. that can get you fairly close. We take a stab/educated guess at the number every month, so far we've been within a dozen or two once the final quarterly tallies come in.

We know Tesla produced around 800 of the Model S during the month, and that they net (after cancellations) about 700 reservations (before the surge on the pricing bump). However, the month was back-end heavy which aren't actualy deliveries/sales. Also, the line started specing out Canadian Signature Performances a couple weeks ago, so you lost some US sales there as well. I'd say you are looking at 400 sold into the US during the month.

Also it looks impossible for Tesla to sell the 2,700 to 3,200 they forecast in their last SEC update, I would say they might produce 2,700 but that would be the extend of it.

60 kWh cars just got bumped this week to January for SOP, and the 40 kWh into March.

What is going to be interesting is to see how the reservations fair after the January 1st hike, and how the follow-through fairs as they bring forward reserves to turn into sales, the cancellation rate is on the 85 kWh versions has been quite high (imo).

Sales trends over the past 3 months would seem to indicate around 10,000 units per year is going to be the high water mark, while they company looks to sell 20,000. Personal opinion only...I think Tesla may (is) intentionally slow the production rate somewhat into 2013 to elongate plant productivity past the estimated June-July catch-up to orders.

edit (added info): Tesla had a reservation surge late in month caused by pricing increase effective Jan 1 but likely will not know how conversion rate on pre-existing reserves until they update in the new year

 

[MrIanB]

Statik;

Are you able to get orders/delivery numbers monthly for the Tesla to see how they compare or do they not release those numbers?

Tia,

Ian B

Tesla doesn't give out the numbers specifically, however there is a lot of SEC filings, line updates, tweets, VIN sequencing, etc. that can get you fairly close. We take a stab/educated guess at the number every month, so far we've been within a dozen or two once the final quarterly tallies come in.

We know Tesla produced around 800 of the Model S during the month, and that they net (after cancellations) about 700 reservations. However, the month was back-end heavy which aren't actualy deliveries/sales. Also, the line started specing out Canadian Signature Performances a couple weeks ago, so you lost some US sales there as well. I'd say you are looking at 400 sold into the US during the month.

Also it looks impossible for Tesla to sell the 2,700 to 3,200 they forecast in their last SEC update, I would say they might produce 2,700 but that would be the extend of it.

60 kWh cars just got bumped this week to January for SOP, and the 40 kWh into March.

What is going to be interesting is to see how the reservations fair after the January 1st hike, and how the follow-through fairs as they bring forward reserves to turn into sales, the cancellation rate is on the 85 kWh versions has been quite high (imo).

Sales trends over the past 3 months would seem to indicate around 10,000 units per year is going to be the high water mark, while they company looks to sell 20,000. Personal opinion only...I think Tesla may (is) intentionally slow the production rate somewhat into 2013 to elongate plant productivity past the estimated June-July catch-up to orders.

Thanks for the information. Interesting how they operate and keep the numbers to themselves. Are Fisker's numbers available or also secret?

Ian B

 

[Jay]

Statik;

Are you able to get orders/delivery numbers monthly for the Tesla to see how they compare or do they not release those numbers?

Tia,

Ian B

Tesla doesn't give out the numbers specifically, however there is a lot of SEC filings, line updates, tweets, VIN sequencing, etc. that can get you fairly close. We take a stab/educated guess at the number every month, so far we've been within a dozen or two once the final quarterly tallies come in.

We know Tesla produced around 800 of the Model S during the month, and that they net (after cancellations) about 700 reservations. However, the month was back-end heavy which aren't actualy deliveries/sales. Also, the line started specing out Canadian Signature Performances a couple weeks ago, so you lost some US sales there as well. I'd say you are looking at 400 sold into the US during the month.

Also it looks impossible for Tesla to sell the 2,700 to 3,200 they forecast in their last SEC update, I would say they might produce 2,700 but that would be the extend of it.

60 kWh cars just got bumped this week to January for SOP, and the 40 kWh into March.

What is going to be interesting is to see how the reservations fair after the January 1st hike, and how the follow-through fairs as they bring forward reserves to turn into sales, the cancellation rate is on the 85 kWh versions has been quite high (imo).

Sales trends over the past 3 months would seem to indicate around 10,000 units per year is going to be the high water mark, while they company looks to sell 20,000. Personal opinion only...I think Tesla may (is) intentionally slow the production rate somewhat into 2013 to elongate plant productivity past the estimated June-July catch-up to orders.

Thanks for the information. Interesting how they operate and keep the numbers to themselves. Are Fisker's numbers available or also secret?

Ian B

Yes, everything is educated guess work with Tesla right now I'm afraid. They have to carefully manage their image/market cap right now; but I imagine at some point they will issue monthly updates.

Fisker is worse. Fisker is like a secret society, which is their perogative because they are still privately held. I've been fortunate to have some communication with people who were responsible for raising capital for them, and to some info that was not publically made available...otherwise who knows if we would get anything ie) we broke the specs/pricing on the Atlantic, delays in production until late 2014,Fiskers plans to build a 3rd car and to join up with a strategic partner, etc.

Heck, the knowledge their Karma line in Finland had been idled indefinitely due to an exhaustion of A123 batteries wasn't known until 4 weeks after the fact. All we could tell was that A123 had stopped producing/shipping and that they were/are looking to break the contract.

 

[MrIanB]

Thanks again Statik for all your valuable information. I think even if I win the lotto, I won't buy a car from Fisker with such cult secrecy mentality, battery supply issues and some of the so so reviews and fires in their cars.

Ian B

 

[evnow]

As you can see lot of red ink compared to last month. But better, much better, than last year.

If Leaf has another 1,500 month in December, it will end with about the same number as 2011. Not bad considering the poor sales in the first half of this year.

 

[GRA]

As you can see lot of red ink compared to last month. But better, much better, than last year.

If Leaf has another 1,500 month in December, it will end with about the same number as 2011. Not bad considering the poor sales in the first half of this year.

Just shows that the value isn't perceived to be there for many people, with gov. incentives alone. The question is how long can Nissan afford to give customers up to $4,500 per car, for cars that may have limited resale value at the end of their lease? Maybe they're counting on a huge drop in battery prices that would allow the cars to be fitted with new ones and sold at a reasonable price, but that's pretty chancy.

 

[cwerdna]

Elon Musk gave the Toyota dude a Roadster in thanks.

LOL re: the Toyota dude.

Akio Toyoda is Toyota's CEO and the founder's grandson... so, in some sense, Toyota's a family business.

completed out what we can today

i-miev 42
rav 4 ev 32

Wow... that's shockingly (and disappointingly) low for the Rav4 EV, if it's accurate. I haven't looked at the totals from other months, but unless Toyota steps it up w/good lease deals, incentives, is able to sell a ton to fleets, they won't meet their goal of 2600 in 3 years.