DANandNAN said:
WetEV said:
DANandNAN said:
IMHO, I think most Volt owners realize they have the best of both worlds - for example we're EV 95% of the time and range extender when necessary.
Short term, yes. A plug in hybrid is a better fit for the economics and technologies right now. Actually, a regular hybrid is probably even better.
Longer term, a plug in hybrid like a Volt is the worst of both worlds. Have all the problems with keeping an gasoline engine healthy, and all of the problems with a battery. Have to tote the mass of a gasoline engine around, even as the gasoline engine gets less and less useful.
How is a hybrid, that burns gas the second you turn the key, better than a Volt that's burned 9 gallons of gas in over 5,000 miles? That's 150+ gallons and $500 saved.
Let us do the numbers.
In round terms, a PHEV like a Volt costs about $20,000 more than a ICE, a Leaf type BEV about $15,000 more and a hybrid about $2000 more. A Model S type BEV with 300 mile range about $50,000 more. I'm ignoring tax rebates and such right now.
The ICE will get 30 mpg, the hybrid 50mpg, the PHEV will get 100 mpg electric/40 mpg gasoline and does 98% of driving on electric, the LtBEV will get about 100 mpg electric (but need a ICE car 10% of the time) and the MStBEV will get 100 mpg electric and never need an ICE.
With me so far? Agree with these estimates? If not, we can redo this with some different numbers.
Let's do this in the Northwet (no typo, it is cool (68 predicted high temperature) and misty today), and assume that 100% of electric power is non-fossil, ie hydro/wind/solar/nuclear, and we get it all at public free charge stations. Assume 12,000 miles a year, 10 year life. Assume $3.50 gasoline.
So what is the maximum use of $100,000?
Change 50 new ICE into new hybrid cars and save 50cars*10 years*(400 - 240) = 197,600 gallons of gasoline or 3,952,000 lbs of CO2 or $691,600?
Change 5 new ICE into new PHEV cars and save 5*10*(400*.98) = 19,600 gallons of gasoline or 392,000 lbs of CO2 or $68,600?
Change 6.67 new ICE into new LtBEV and save 6.67*10*(400*.90) = 24,010 gallons of gasoline or 480,200 lbs of CO2 or $84,035?
Change 2 new ICE into new MStBEV and save 2*10*400 = 8,000 gallons of gasoline or 160,000 lbs of CO2 or $28,000?
The Leaf is more of a cultural change than is a PHEV, so I can see how it is not for everyone, and the Leaf may require either ownership of a second car (which is not fully accounted for above) or occasional rental of a car (rental cost not accounted for above). Second car can be very cheap in a two car household. As you can see, the Leaf and the Volt are more similar than different in gasoline savings. Both are rather less in total savings than is the hybrid, and both rather more than the Model S type. (I should add the iMiev into the above)
Of course, people don't follow the economics too closely, or there wouldn't be many plain ICE cars sold.
Economics isn't everything, as the gasoline cost doesn't include the cost of the side effects of burning gasoline, such as air pollution, climate change, foreign wars, etc. Or on the positive side, the fact that electrics are just plain fun to drive isn't included as well. Or the tax breaks.
This isn't static, as the cost of batteries is dropping and the cost of gasoline is (long term) rising. The more hybrid or PHEV and BEVs produced, the faster the price of batteries will fall.
Long term, a PHEV will cost more than a large battery BEV, and with higher fuel costs, more maintainance costs, would appeal to only a tiny fraction of people.