WetEV said:
TimLee said:
If it is actually a new battery at $4,900, why would Nissan refuse to give a replacement price
Several reasons. One, they want to sell cars, not batteries. Need more?
Clearly Nissan's goal is to sell as many LEAFs as they can. Their goal is to make money over the long run at least. The more they sell at some reasonable increment above their variable cost of production, the sooner they can write off the very large capital cost of designing and producing the LEAF, and begin to make a longer term real profit. But as demonstrated by Toyota with the Prius, this likely will take quite a few years.
Their shorter term goal is to dominate the moderate cost, "affordable" EV market. They are thrilled by the PR aspect of soon being the first to produce 100,000 production EVs that are affordable. All of us that love EVs applaud them for reaching that milestone :!:
My point was that if the LEAF battery price that Nissan could sell it for and not lose money was $4,900 they would have announced it with a massive PR blitz back in the spring. Now they clearly would only sell it as a LEAF replacement part in exchange for the original manufacture LEAF battery. They are in the business to sell cars, not batteries for EV conversions or solar energy or wind energy storage systems.
But the LEAF battery price has to be markedly higher than $4,900 or they would have screamed the price from the rooftops. $4,900 is the price that the market has set for "relatively new" used LEAF battery prices. Like many things in the used products arena and as seen innumerable times every day on eBay, new does not really mean new.
As long as Nissan's real battery price is markedly higher than this price, they will never sell replacement batteries. That's why they went with a battery rental program. Same approach the cell phone companies take with marvelous smart cell phones that sell for $700 in the market (and that the OEMs are manufacturing for around $250 to $300 making a handy profit) and that a huge number of people want, but MOST people aren't willing to pay for in a lump sum price. The cell phone market has demonstrated that people will pay the $200 up front, and pay the remainder on a minimum two year high cost per month "rental" program.
Nissan is hoping the same thing will work with the LEAF battery.
WetEV said:
Setting the price high might discourage sales of cars, as people would decide the Leaf is a disposable car. Battery is too expensive to replace.
Setting the price low might prevent the sales of cars, as people buy batteries that don't need them, and car production seems to be limited by battery production.
Why do you think the battery lease idea was floated? I suspect that when Nissan releases a lease price, Nissan will make money on every battery leased, even those in AZ, where the battery life is about 2.5 years.
Yes, that means the cells in a battery pack might be about $3000 cost. Or less. But Nissan would far prefer to sell Leafs, or lease battery packs for low margin in AZ, and very high margin almost everywhere else.
At least, that is my uneducated guess.
In general I agree with you. Nissan refused to provide a battery price because they concluded it would hurt LEAF sales. (But I think a $3,000 only variable cost of production LEAF battery price won't happen any time soon. Probably at least five years away or more.)
But the problem Nissan has is that the market has recognized the LEAF is a disposable car. That is why the ratio of purchases to leases has shifted from around 35 % purchases / 65% lease in the first wave of early adopters, to something more like 90% or more leases at this point.
The market is sometimes pretty smart.
So far Nissan has been lucky that the market price of used LEAFs hasn't plunged any further. Partly because there is a demand for affordable EVs. Partly because people with low miles per day may be able to use a moderate cost used LEAF for maybe 10 years or more, without battery replacement.
Nissan had hoped the market wouldn't recognize the 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / and possibly early 2014 LEAFs (unless they all get "Hot" batteries) are disposable, by not revealing the battery price, and offering a rental program. But unfortunately for Nissan, the market is smarter than that.