The Market will Respond to After-Market Battery Demand

[smkettner]

I wish people would stop posting those numbers for the various online parts sites. Those are not battery packs!

What are they then? The picture seems to clearly show the battery pack?

I tried to buy one a few months ago. No available shipping.

 

[fotajoye]

@TonyWilliams:

Interesting comment! One worthy of debate, but, off topic here.

Do you have a link for this subject?

Well, the only person who would debate in support of this is the guy who does it (and I'm sure he has legions of followers).

Right Tony and that would be Jack Rickard at evtv.me

 

[edatoakrun]

... I'm _very_ curious as to where they are getting the new modules from. They claim to be able to get both MY'11-12 and MY'13 style modules.

Nissan is selling LEAFS and supplying replacement modules and battery packs through it's worldwide sales/service network.

I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out that Nissan is not diligently/and or effectively enforcing the no-sale policy worldwide, and some Nissan dealer in some market simply broke Nissan's embargo on battery/module sales.

Sooner or later you'll be able to buy a new replacement pack/modules at your local Nissan dealer, though Nissan may well decide to set the US prices considerably higher (and who knows-maybe even lower?) than this seller seems to be charging on the grey market.

 

[rmay635703]

There are multple sellers of Nissan Leaf and Volt battery packs and parts, some claim new but all are used, as more leafs crash you will see more batteries become available.

Heck a $1900 volt battery sold on ebay a few weeks back and there is even a Hybrid PHEV place celling Nissan leaf battery packs and cells.

So if You REALLY want a battery you can buy one but have to settle for used. Sadly its still around $5k for a leaf battery whole, without the charger, BMS and monitor its rather useless.

Anyone want to take me up on developing a method bench charging a leaf battery pack with the stock charger and no car ? Then I could throw one of these slugs in one of my antique EVs.

Cheers
Ryan

 

[WetEV]

If it is actually a new battery at $4,900, why would Nissan refuse to give a replacement price

Several reasons. One, they want to sell cars, not batteries. Need more?

 

[Tomasz]

If it is actually a new battery at $4,900, why would Nissan refuse to give a replacement price

Several reasons. One, they want to sell cars, not batteries. Need more?

Actually yes.

If the words spreads out that Leaf is a disposable car (once the battery is dead you're done) they won't be selling much of either.

If they don't want to sell the batteries alone - set a price so high nobody will buy it. If people want to replace battery with new one and pay dearly - let them have it their way.

 

[WetEV]

Several reasons. One, they want to sell cars, not batteries. Need more?

Actually yes.

If the words spreads out that Leaf is a disposable car (once the battery is dead you're done) they won't be selling much of either.

If they don't want to sell the batteries alone - set a price so high nobody will buy it. If people want to replace battery with new one and pay dearly - let them have it their way.

Setting the price high might discourage sales of cars, as people would decide the Leaf is a disposable car. Battery is to expensive to replace.

Setting the price low might prevent the sales of cars, as people buy batteries that don't need them, and car production seems to be limited by battery production.

Why do you think the battery lease idea was floated? I suspect that when Nissan releases a lease price, Nissan will make money on every battery leased, even those in AZ, where the battery life is about 2.5 years.

Yes, that means the cells in a battery pack might be about $3000 cost. Or less. But Nissan would far prefer to sell Leafs, or lease battery packs for low margin in AZ, and very high margin almost everywhere else.

At least, that is my uneducated guess.

 

[Tomasz]

Setting the price high might discourage sales of cars, as people would decide the Leaf is a disposable car. Battery is to expensive to replace.

Setting the price low might prevent the sales of cars, as people buy batteries that don't need them, and car production seems to be limited by battery production.

Of course you could just set the price "right" and publish official lead time for delivery. If you can build 2500 batteries a month you can officially said "we're going to sell 50 batteries a month as spares, get in line".

 

[TimLee]

If it is actually a new battery at $4,900, why would Nissan refuse to give a replacement price

Several reasons. One, they want to sell cars, not batteries. Need more?

Clearly Nissan's goal is to sell as many LEAFs as they can. Their goal is to make money over the long run at least. The more they sell at some reasonable increment above their variable cost of production, the sooner they can write off the very large capital cost of designing and producing the LEAF, and begin to make a longer term real profit. But as demonstrated by Toyota with the Prius, this likely will take quite a few years.

Their shorter term goal is to dominate the moderate cost, "affordable" EV market. They are thrilled by the PR aspect of soon being the first to produce 100,000 production EVs that are affordable. All of us that love EVs applaud them for reaching that milestone :!:

My point was that if the LEAF battery price that Nissan could sell it for and not lose money was $4,900 they would have announced it with a massive PR blitz back in the spring. Now they clearly would only sell it as a LEAF replacement part in exchange for the original manufacture LEAF battery. They are in the business to sell cars, not batteries for EV conversions or solar energy or wind energy storage systems.

But the LEAF battery price has to be markedly higher than $4,900 or they would have screamed the price from the rooftops. $4,900 is the price that the market has set for "relatively new" used LEAF battery prices. Like many things in the used products arena and as seen innumerable times every day on eBay, new does not really mean new.

As long as Nissan's real battery price is markedly higher than this price, they will never sell replacement batteries. That's why they went with a battery rental program. Same approach the cell phone companies take with marvelous smart cell phones that sell for $700 in the market (and that the OEMs are manufacturing for around $250 to $300 making a handy profit) and that a huge number of people want, but MOST people aren't willing to pay for in a lump sum price. The cell phone market has demonstrated that people will pay the $200 up front, and pay the remainder on a minimum two year high cost per month "rental" program.
Nissan is hoping the same thing will work with the LEAF battery.

Setting the price high might discourage sales of cars, as people would decide the Leaf is a disposable car. Battery is too expensive to replace.

Setting the price low might prevent the sales of cars, as people buy batteries that don't need them, and car production seems to be limited by battery production.

Why do you think the battery lease idea was floated? I suspect that when Nissan releases a lease price, Nissan will make money on every battery leased, even those in AZ, where the battery life is about 2.5 years.

Yes, that means the cells in a battery pack might be about $3000 cost. Or less. But Nissan would far prefer to sell Leafs, or lease battery packs for low margin in AZ, and very high margin almost everywhere else.

At least, that is my uneducated guess.

In general I agree with you. Nissan refused to provide a battery price because they concluded it would hurt LEAF sales. (But I think a $3,000 only variable cost of production LEAF battery price won't happen any time soon. Probably at least five years away or more.)

But the problem Nissan has is that the market has recognized the LEAF is a disposable car. That is why the ratio of purchases to leases has shifted from around 35 % purchases / 65% lease in the first wave of early adopters, to something more like 90% or more leases at this point.
The market is sometimes pretty smart.

So far Nissan has been lucky that the market price of used LEAFs hasn't plunged any further. Partly because there is a demand for affordable EVs. Partly because people with low miles per day may be able to use a moderate cost used LEAF for maybe 10 years or more, without battery replacement.

Nissan had hoped the market wouldn't recognize the 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / and possibly early 2014 LEAFs (unless they all get "Hot" batteries) are disposable, by not revealing the battery price, and offering a rental program. But unfortunately for Nissan, the market is smarter than that.

 

[mwalsh]

^ IMO, the market has decided the LEAF is a disposable car, in part, precisely because you can't buy a replacement battery pack for it. And it (although the primary reason is all the press and current owner advice regarding battery degredation) is a reason for the shift in the purchase vs. lease demographic.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

If you could peg a dollar value to the various CARB, CAFE, ZEV or what-have-you credits what would it be?

Nissan gets those credits for selling cars, not for selling replacement batteries, right?

 

[philipscoggins]

When I had my yearly batter check ran a few months ago, I asked the service manager if they had replaced any batteries yet. He said they had done a couple & "You don't want to have that done. It took all day & cost $4,900"

I didn't wrestle him to the ground for a written price quote, but I take that as a good idea for a replacement pack. I figure I'll need one by year 5, hopefully no sooner. I also hope Nissan offers a higher capacity replacement by them. But I'm full of hopes and dreams. I used to imagine that I could go buy an electric car and stop buying gas... and guess what?

 

[tombobcat]

I used to imagine that I could go buy an electric car and stop buying gas... and guess what?

Me too, now I'm driving my wife ICE car 100% for commuting, very disappointed.

 

[philipscoggins]

I used to imagine that I could go buy an electric car and stop buying gas... and guess what?

Me too, now I'm driving my wife ICE car 100% for commuting, very disappointed.

Well that sucks, sorry to hear that.

I am hoping that I came along late enough to have the battery refresh/replacement issue properly dealt with by the time it is pertinent to me.

Last month, on a auction site I saw several flood insurance LEAF totals being sold out of NY for $5k. Seems like you could pull a pack from one of those is it was an issue of parking the LEAF, of course spending $5k + labor on a 2 year old car...

 

[WetEV]

If you could peg a dollar value to the various CARB, CAFE, ZEV or what-have-you credits what would it be?

Nissan gets those credits for selling cars, not for selling replacement batteries, right?

Important point. Nissan is producing all the batteries it can, if stories are true. So a decision must be made:

Does Nissan make more by selling a battery or a car?

If the answer is batteries, then Nissan should stop selling cars and focus on battery sales.

If the answer is cars, counting credits, then Nissan should use every battery they make in a new car, to the extent that they can, after warrantee replacements.

 

[klapauzius]

Important point. Nissan is producing all the batteries it can, if stories are true. So a decision must be made:
Does Nissan make more by selling a battery or a car?
If the answer is batteries, then Nissan should stop selling cars and focus on battery sales.
If the answer is cars, counting credits, then Nissan should use every battery they make in a new car, to the extent that they can, after warrantee replacements.

If they think they could make more money selling batteries, they probably would already...
But that may be true for any potential replacement part an automaker might produce. In which case you would, for economic reasons, never get any replacement parts.

I am sure it would be a windfall for Nissan, if we all had to buy a whole new LEAF to address the aging battery problem in our 2011s.
This, from a corporate view, would make a lot of economical sense, wouldn't it?

 

[WetEV]

But that may be true for any potential replacement part an automaker might produce. In which case you would, for economic reasons, never get any replacement parts.

If parts are limiting production of cars, perhaps. If the gross profit on a car is $10,000, and the number of cars that can be made is limited by some $10 part, for every $10 part sold as a part, one car sale and $10,000 is lost. Why would any rational maker of cars, corporate or otherwise, sell the part?

That is usually not the case, of course. Usually there are plenty of parts, and the number of cars sold isn't limited by the production of parts.

 

[klapauzius]

That is usually not the case, of course. Usually there are plenty of parts, and the number of cars sold isn't limited by the production of parts.

Hopefully, that is true for replacement batteries as well.
With an annual production capacity considerable higher than current sales, there should be enough spare batteries.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Even if Nissan were to offer replacement packs for $3k they would get very few takers at this point. Before dropping even that kind of money now most people would put off replacement, wringing as many mile and years possible out of the original pack.

 

[91040]

Agreed, but those with the need for longer range will ante up. I am pretty close to that point now.

Even if Nissan were to offer replacement packs for $3k they would get very few takers at this point. Before dropping even that kind of money now most people would put off replacement, wringing as many mile and years possible out of the original pack.