The Market will Respond to After-Market Battery Demand

[smkettner]

Even if Nissan were to offer replacement packs for $3k they would get very few takers at this point. Before dropping even that kind of money now most people would put off replacement, wringing as many mile and years possible out of the original pack.

At least we could start talking up the LEAF again as we save $6,000+ in fuel but spend only $3,000 on a battery.

 

[klapauzius]

At least we could start talking up the LEAF again as we save $6,000+ in fuel but spend only $3,000 on a battery.

+1

And sales would be very predictable. If Nissan has the location and mileage of each vehicle (which I guess through carwings they have), based on average commuter distances for the respective zip codes, they would exactly know how many replacements would be needed for any given period.

 

[DaveEV]

Hopefully, that is true for replacement batteries as well.
With an annual production capacity considerable higher than current sales, there should be enough spare batteries.

Battery production is currently the bottleneck limiting how many LEAFs Nissan can produce. Apparently the separator (one of the things they said they will change with the "hot" battery) is the primary bottleneck and production of the separator takes a while to ramp up from their supplier (last known to be Polypore, though there have been rumors that they'd be switching suppliers - Polypore's Q3 results suggest that Nissan was under active negotiations with them and had at least temporarily halted sales).

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

At least we could start talking up the LEAF again as we save $6,000+ in fuel but spend only $3,000 on a battery.

+1

And sales would be very predictable. If Nissan has the location and mileage of each vehicle (which I guess through carwings they have), based on average commuter distances for the respective zip codes, they would exactly know how many replacements would be needed for any given period.

Baloney. Few people will want a car that has a recurring $3k repair bill. People are accustomed to paying for gas out of their monthly expenses, coming up with that lump sum is not in the cards for most, that's why Nissan is dreaming up monthly fee deals. The car business runs on credit, most people coming into the showroom have frighteningly low net worth, but they drive out in a new car and a payment book.

 

[dhanson865]

At least we could start talking up the LEAF again as we save $6,000+ in fuel but spend only $3,000 on a battery.

+1

And sales would be very predictable. If Nissan has the location and mileage of each vehicle (which I guess through carwings they have), based on average commuter distances for the respective zip codes, they would exactly know how many replacements would be needed for any given period.

Baloney. Few people will want a car that has a recurring $3k repair bill. People are accustomed to paying for gas out of their monthly expenses, coming up with that lump sum is not in the cards for most, that's why Nissan is dreaming up monthly fee deals. The car business runs on credit, most people coming into the showroom have frighteningly low net worth, but they drive out in a new car and a payment book.

I'd gladly buy a used leaf from Arizona if I knew I could buy a new battery pack for $3000 to use here in Tennessee where it wouldn't degrade so fast. I'm sure the Arizona users wouldn't want to buy a new battery ever 2-4 years but I'd be happy with a new battery in an old Leaf because here it'd last me way longer and my cost per kwh is lower.

 

[Nubo]

@TonyWilliams:

Interesting comment! One worthy of debate, but, off topic here.

Do you have a link for this subject?

Well, the only person who would debate in support of this is the guy who does it (and I'm sure he has legions of followers).

He makes a good case. And also in their latest episode there is an interview with the expert at a German battery-manufacturing plant who seemed to agree with the validity of the approach. Which is not just bottom-balancing but always keeping charging well below the maximum. As someone already mentioned, they focus on the more stable Lithium-Iron-Phosphate chemistry.

Now, do I trust him... or the "experts" who designed the Dreamliner battery system?

 

[davewill]

Even if Nissan were to offer replacement packs for $3k they would get very few takers at this point. Before dropping even that kind of money now most people would put off replacement, wringing as many mile and years possible out of the original pack.

Sure, but I could consider buying my LEAF off lease or even get a LEAF as my next car at all. Right now, I'm leaning towards other options. I don't like leasing, and want a BEV option that I can own for 7-10 years. As it stands I pretty much have to lease a LEAF.

 

[TimLee]

...Few people will want a car that has a recurring $3k repair bill. People are accustomed to paying for gas out of their monthly expenses, coming up with that lump sum is not in the cards for most, that's why Nissan is dreaming up monthly fee deals. The car business runs on credit, most people coming into the showroom have frighteningly low net worth, but they drive out in a new car and a payment book.

You might be right, but anyone who purchased a 2011 or 2012 or probably even a 2013 LEAF and thought they would be able to replace the battery for <$3,000 is badly deluded.
Almost all the 2011 / 2012 purchasers knew there was a risk with the Li battery.
But a lot of us trusted what Nissan said, that they knew what they were doing.
5 years, 80% capacity; 10 years, 70% capacity.
But they Nissan didn't know what they were doing.
And the battery probably really costs closer to $12,000 currently (maybe $10,000 if you only consider variable cost of production), and $4,900 is probably at least five years away or more, and $3,000 for a 24 kWh battery is probably at best a 2025 price.
Whether people want it is another matter.
Maybe the ONLY way to sell it is if you lease the battery.
But if that was the only way to sell it, then don't sell the car with the battery, and then only offer the Steal Your Battery (SYB) program.

 

[nosuchthing]

How about then, Nissan buys back my battery for about 15-20 grand and lets me lease a new battery... :twisted:

 

[smkettner]

At least we could start talking up the LEAF again as we save $6,000+ in fuel but spend only $3,000 on a battery.

+1

And sales would be very predictable. If Nissan has the location and mileage of each vehicle (which I guess through carwings they have), based on average commuter distances for the respective zip codes, they would exactly know how many replacements would be needed for any given period.

Baloney. Few people will want a car that has a recurring $3k repair bill. People are accustomed to paying for gas out of their monthly expenses, coming up with that lump sum is not in the cards for most, that's why Nissan is dreaming up monthly fee deals. The car business runs on credit, most people coming into the showroom have frighteningly low net worth, but they drive out in a new car and a payment book.

Nissan can finance the battery or give a standard lease with buyout same as a new car. It really should not be a big deal. And if the cost/payments are that obscene maybe the whole idea is not viable.
No baloney. Give us the steak.

 

[fotajoye]

Nissan expects to sell 32,000 MY2014 Leafs with the same battery as in the former models. That should create a good market for rebuilt battery packs and also a market for solar storage using the "70% packs."

There are those who are planning to offer replacement batteries so the more Leafs that are sold, the better this after market will be.

http://www.btcpower.com/products-and-applications/electric-vehicle-charging/#ev-phev-battery-refurbisment-program" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

Nissan expects to sell 32.000 MY2014 Leafs with the same battery as in the former models. That should create a good market for rebuilt battery packs and also a market for solar storage using the "70% packs."...

Actually, I expect Nissan to sell between 60,000 and 80,000 LEAFs worldwide in 2014, and it even has an outside chance to reach ~100,000 total BEV sales, if the e-nv200 (which looks likely to have the identical battery pack) is produced in sizable numbers this year.

http://green.autoblog.com/2013/09/11/nissan-e-nv200-electric-van-in-final-development-phase/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If Nissan does not sell pack replacements at a reasonable price (and probably, even if it does) other vendors of exchange rebuilt/replacement packs surely will be attracted by this ~ billion dollar market for battery packs for what will eventually probably be at least several hundreds of thousands of Nissan BEVs.

I doubt owners of any of the compliance BEVs or the Tesla S (the battery packs for which are intended to degrade/depreciate at ~ the same rate as the rest of the vehicle) will have the same aftermarket options.

 

[fotajoye]

If Nissan does not sell pack replacements at a reasonable price....other vendors of exchange rebuilt/replacement packs surely will be attracted by this

Jack Rickard, from EVTV, has become interested in Leaf battery modules; this might turn into an interesting ongoing segment on his weekly show. I encourage all to watch.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZuu4YMhXI0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Leaf battery segment is at about 24 minutes in.

If modules can be sourced at a reasonable price, buyers might start buying used Leafs and either rebuilding or even upgrading the battery themselves or buying installed replacements. This could increase the demand for used Leafs, raise the resell value and help restore confidence in owning the car.

 

[mwalsh]

So now Jack is getting ready to sell Nissan cells, he all of a sudden doesn't believe in battery degradation? Hmm... Well, I suppose I'd be willing to suspend belief in that too, if someone (he?) got ahold of an allegedly degraded pack and tested the cells out of it.

Again we come back to this notion that, if the cells aren't degraded, then what is happening in the BMS that makes it think there is not as much battery density to work with? And if Nissan agrees with Jack that there is no degradation, then why bother with investigating a tweaked chemistry and internal structure for future cells?

 

[fotajoye]

So now Jack is getting ready to sell Nissan cells, he all of a sudden doesn't believe in battery degradation? Hmm... Well, I suppose I'd be willing to suspend belief in that too, if someone (he?) got ahold of an allegedly degraded pack and tested the cells out of it.

Again we come back to this notion that, if the cells aren't degraded, then what is happening in the BMS that makes it think there is not as much battery density to work with? And if Nissan agrees with Jack that there is no degradation, then why bother with investigating a tweaked chemistry and internal structure for future cells?

Didn't mean for this to be used as an attack on Jack Rickard; I presented it mostly because I though others would like to know something about the cells and chemistry in their battery packs, including some cost information. Think he has plans to test the cells in future segments. Perhaps his testing will be of value to your agenda.

 

[TimLee]

So now Jack is getting ready to sell Nissan cells, he all of a sudden doesn't believe in battery degradation? ....

Again we come back to this notion that, if the cells aren't degraded, then what is happening in the BMS that makes it think there is not as much battery density to work with? And if Nissan agrees with Jack that there is no degradation, then why bother with investigating a tweaked chemistry and internal structure for future cells?

Didn't mean for this to be used as an attack on Jack Rickard; I presented it mostly because I though others would like to know something about the cells and chemistry in their battery packs, including some cost information. Think he has plans to test the cells in future segments. Perhaps his testing will be of value to your agenda.

I appreciate the mention of EVTV having something of interest for LEAF users, specifically the time reference of when the show was talking about LEAF modules.
Hard to watch two hours of EVTV every week, so the reference is useful.

Jack Rickard never said cell degradation was a non-issue. He acknowledges that the LEAF 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / possibly early 2014 LEAF module chemistry may have only around 800 cycles, possibly 1000, or optimistically 1200 cycles before hitting 70% capacity degradation.
But as usual Jack is Jack and he seems to still be of the opinion that Phoenix LEAF users didn't experience rapid capacity degradation :? :? :?
But Jack is acknowledging that if you can buy not too badly degraded LEAF modules from salvaged vehicles and get a 24 kWh pack for $6,000 that weighs only around 400 # compared to the Lithium iron phosphate cells that he is selling that costs around $11,000 and that weighs at least 25% more around 525 # that use of the LEAF modules might be the better current day economic choice.

Even if they do fail within five years, he is optimistic that markedly improved battery chemistry at markedly lower price will be available in five years.
So used LEAF modules might be the better choice for custom electric vehicle conversions.

 

[DaveEV]

So used LEAF modules might be the better choice for custom electric vehicle conversions.

Certainly at half the price (he had the price wrong - it's less than $5k for a pack, not $6k) and with 30% less energy/weight density (at least until they lose capacity, but even then they will match the CALB cells) they are a great deal for EV conversions.

I absolutely disagree with his suggestion to forgo BMS and rely on bottom balancing the pack especially considering that the LiMn is not as stable as LiFePo. It just seems crazy to not to spend $15-20/cell to make sure you don't overcharge or discharge a cell with possibly disastrous results.

All that said - looking forward to what exciting news he plans to bring in a few weeks.

 

[wazzup360]

http://store.evtv.me/proddetail.php?prod=Betterplace&cat=23

 

[mwalsh]

http://store.evtv.me/proddetail.php?prod=Betterplace&cat=23

So LG Chem cells from the Renault Zoe, rather than AESC LEAF ones then? That's a bit disappointing.

 

[fotajoye]

http://store.evtv.me/proddetail.php?prod=Betterplace&cat=23

If you want more information, watch this week's video; the inside contents are revealed:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWPQTjpKovQ" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

at about 2:05