News About Nissan Battery Future

[SteveInSeattle]

The bottom line here is that Nissan has re-evaluated the market for EVs and does not see as much potential as they expected. And, consumer acceptance really has not been significant -- EVs should rightfully be a much bigger percentage of the market (if customers really knew the economics and convenience of EV ownership). I don't think Tesla is out of the woods yet by any means. Their Giga-factory may be hugely optimistic and they may end up in the same situation. The Chevy Volt, for all of it's flaws, is really a better model for the future-- an EV with no range issues. Someone is going to do the range-extended EV right and do very well with it.

 

[evnow]

The bottom line here is that Nissan has re-evaluated the market for EVs and does not see as much potential as they expected.

I don't think that is the bottom line at all. That EVs have been selling less than initial executive talk indicated has been well known now ... for 2 years. We don't need this "scoop" to tell us that. Just compare what Lutz & Ghosn were saying in 2010 to the sales numbers.

BTW, from a long time Ghosn has been saying that while battery plants can manufacture in large numbers, only a small number of machines have been actually installed. Think of what Tesla has done with the gigantic factory (capable of 500k cars a year) they took over.

The real bottom line is
- Nissan is looking to get out of the weird fixed cathode production agreement they had with NEC. That was a bad agreement to start with.
- Nissan can buy LG batteries at a better price (and possible better density) than AEC. If so, Ghosn is going to either force AEC to figure out how to reduce cost or shift to LG (probably both). May be they'll get lower capacity battery from AEC (for a lower price) and the higher capacity battery from LG.

The more interesting question is .. What does this all mean to Leaf 2 ?

- Did Andy Palmer think of AEC batteries when talking about Leaf 2 in 2016/17 or did he mean LG batteries ?
- Did LG really had Infiniti USA in mind when saying there'll be 200 mile BEV in 2016 ?

 

[smkettner]

The bottom line here is that Nissan has re-evaluated the market for EVs and does not see as much potential as they expected. And, consumer acceptance really has not been significant -- EVs should rightfully be a much bigger percentage of the market (if customers really knew the economics and convenience of EV ownership).

If the initial LEAF had produced an actual real world 100 mile range as promised for the year+ before release and a battery that could take the heat.....
Maybe a few early adopters are sharing the wet blanket thrown on them by Nissan.
Why do so many recommend a lease over a purchase? LEAF has not provided what the market wants.
Now it will take an addition five years to get some real traction in the market.
JMHO

 

[mkjayakumar]

Oh my.. this is all very depressing..

 

[hsriser]

I think the EV market has enough momentum to sustain critical mass. More and more number of players are coming into market, and batteries spectrum is expanding. If Nissan or anybody quits the market or reduces capacity, it is up for grabs by another player.

If Nissan reduces Leaf production capacity, or brings in a new battery for Inifiniti LE, Nissan may not have have enough use of the already manufactured Leaf batteries, and so may replace old batteries very inexpensively on existing Leafs.

 

[lorenfb]

"Think of what Tesla has done with the gigantic factory (capable of 500k cars a year) they took over."

"has done"
I just checked my calendar and it still says it's 2014 and not 2017.

 

[abasile]

"Think of what Tesla has done with the gigantic factory (capable of 500k cars a year) they took over."

"has done"
I just checked my calendar and it still says it's 2014 and not 2017.

This was a reference to the large, former NUMMI plant in Fremont, CA, acquired from Toyota in 2010 for next to nothing and now serving as Tesla's vehicle manufacturing facility.

 

[evnow]

"Think of what Tesla has done with the gigantic factory (capable of 500k cars a year) they took over."

"has done"
I just checked my calendar and it still says it's 2014 and not 2017.

This was a reference to the large, former NUMMI plant in Fremont, CA, acquired from Toyota in 2010 for next to nothing and now serving as Tesla's vehicle manufacturing facility.

Right. Talking about NUMMI.

In other words, having a large building is not the same as having the machinery to actually build that many cars. Nissan would have spent only the fraction of the cost required to actually build batteries for 125k cars a year - since they have just stood up an empty building.

 

[Nubo]

Oh my.. this is all very depressing..

What you see as depressing, I see as normal and necessary maturation of the technology and market. Nissan/AESC developed their battery in a competitive vacuum. Although the safety of their cells is laudable and avoidance of thermal management systems has some desirable consequences, they didn't quite hit the mark for what the market is starting to demand. In part this is from public perception fostered by Tesla. And even more importantly from the prospect of going head-to-head with Tesla in the not-too-distant future. Quite naturally Nissan, if they intend to stay in the game, are re-evaluating and looking for better batteries.

4 years ago nobody really knew what the consumer was willing to accept and what they would come to expect from an EV. Now the picture is becoming clearer.

 

[hsriser]

Oh my.. this is all very depressing..

What you see as depressing, I see as normal and necessary maturation of the technology and market. Nissan/AESC developed their battery in a competitive vacuum. Although the safety of their cells is laudable and avoidance of thermal management systems has some desirable consequences, they didn't quite hit the mark for what the market is starting to demand. In part this is from public perception fostered by Tesla. And even more importantly from the prospect of going head-to-head with Tesla in the not-too-distant future. Quite naturally Nissan, if they intend to stay in the game, are re-evaluating and looking for better batteries.

4 years ago nobody really knew what the consumer was willing to accept and what they would come to expect from an EV. Now the picture is becoming clearer.

Agree completely. I think it is encouraging news overall. Better battery == better EV & better Range. Costs involved in in-house R&D to improve and produce current leaf battery may be significantly more than buying better from LG Chem. Hopefully a more practical leaf coming out in 2017 that may be a viable option for all of us who potentially may not be able to afford Tesla gen 3.

 

[JPWhite]

Why do so many recommend a lease over a purchase? LEAF has not provided what the market wants.

Because the lease deals are a steal now compared to what they were initially. Initially the purchase % was quite high, now Lease is dominant. Dealers taking the leases back do not keep them on their lots (probably due to an inflated residual value).

So my question is where are the returned lease vehicles going to? I've searched Nashville auction sites and find totaled vehicles, but no clean titles. There are no second hand LEAf's on lots in Tennessee I can find using online sites. (Some do pop up in Georgia).

Rather than buy a new SL at 37k, I'd consider picking up a 2013 or newer with lowish miles. Just can't find one locally. My dealer has a story (which maybe fokelore) that a guy is buying up LEAF's at auctions and exporting them to Norway.

 

[evnow]

Why do so many recommend a lease over a purchase? LEAF has not provided what the market wants.

Well, no product provides what the market wants - market wants a 1,000 mile EV for $15k.

The lease recommendation is based on
- lease being a better financial deal
- expectation of "rapid" improvement in battery tech

 

[smkettner]

I recommend lease due to very poor battery longevity.

 

[evnow]

I recommend lease due to very poor battery longevity.

But even in Seattle, the lease rate is very high.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Why do so many recommend a lease over a purchase? LEAF has not provided what the market wants.

Because the lease deals are a steal now compared to what they were initially. Initially the purchase % was quite high, now Lease is dominant. Dealers taking the leases back do not keep them on their lots (probably due to an inflated residual value).

So my question is where are the returned lease vehicles going to? I've searched Nashville auction sites and find totaled vehicles, but no clean titles. There are no second hand LEAf's on lots in Tennessee I can find using online sites. (Some do pop up in Georgia).

Rather than buy a new SL at 37k, I'd consider picking up a 2013 or newer with lowish miles. Just can't find one locally. My dealer has a story (which maybe fokelore) that a guy is buying up LEAF's at auctions and exporting them to Norway.

The cars go to auction, some picked up by used car dealers and many thousands are shipped overseas with a huge portion going to Norway alone. Very few Nissan dealers buy them for their lots. Europe is contributing to your resale value.

 

[Nubo]

I recommend lease due to very poor battery longevity.

But even in Seattle, the lease rate is very high.

Most people who have considered the issue in depth enough to make a purchase decision realize (at least intuitively) that the technology is going to change significantly. A 5-year old battery technology may well be far more out-of-date than a 5-year-old gasoline engine technology. Limiting the term of commitment is prudent for many folks.

 

[pkulak]

Oh my.. this is all very depressing..

What you see as depressing, I see as normal and necessary maturation of the technology and market. Nissan/AESC developed their battery in a competitive vacuum. Although the safety of their cells is laudable and avoidance of thermal management systems has some desirable consequences, they didn't quite hit the mark for what the market is starting to demand. In part this is from public perception fostered by Tesla. And even more importantly from the prospect of going head-to-head with Tesla in the not-too-distant future. Quite naturally Nissan, if they intend to stay in the game, are re-evaluating and looking for better batteries.

4 years ago nobody really knew what the consumer was willing to accept and what they would come to expect from an EV. Now the picture is becoming clearer.

It's depressing to me because I thought Nissan already had a competitive battery far along in the final testing phases and ready to drop into a 200-mile car. So what has Nissan been doing for 3 years? Not a whole lot. And now they are no closer to a 200-mile car than they were in 2011.

 

[pkulak]

The cars go to auction, some picked up by used car dealers and many thousands are shipped overseas with a huge portion going to Norway alone. Very few Nissan dealers buy them for their lots. Europe is contributing to your resale value.

That makes sense. Our cars are $7500 less than they should be in any other country. Shame, since I'd love to buy a 2013 when my lease is up.

 

[ydnas7]

That makes sense. Our cars are $7500 less than they should be in any other country. Shame, since I'd love to buy a 2013 when my lease is up.

not really, plenty of other EU countries have the equivalent of $7500 rebates/subsidy etc.

Nissan LEAF volume was low - pre 2013.
They were supply constrained, then the demand plummeted (partially due to Osborne effect of 2013 pricing)
as well as that, Nissan did have a staggered rollout of the LEAF, so there will be much of the country where there are still zero ex-lease vehicles.

How many Tesla S-60 can you find used?

 

[SSS]

I've had my Leaf through 3 hot CA desert summers, driven over 17,000 miles, and only have lost one bar. Leaf lease has been very good to me.
Nissan rebated the $7,500 up front, plus the CA smog $$ rebate, & lease pmt is at least $100 less than I was paying for petrol alone, so I've saved that in addition to having ZERO service cost. Of course I want more, but more what? This Gen 1 Leaf already has paid me well.