News About Nissan Battery Future

[TimLee]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-nissan-faces-battery-plant-060958496.html has a lot of interesting anecdotes and claims...

... Nissan is seeking to unwind a ruinous NEC contract that requires it to purchase electrodes for the full capacity of 220,000 Leaf-sized 24 kWh batteries regardless of actual sales, sources said.
...
Today's Nissan batteries come in at $270 per kWh, based on replacement prices thought to be below cost, according to consulting firm AlixPartners. The true manufacturing cost is believed to be over $300, inflated by the amortization of unused plant capacity and the burdensome electrodes deal.

Why in the world would Nissan sign a contract requiring the purchase of 220,000 electrodes annually, regardless of sales?
Were electrodes in that short of supply?
Surely they didn't think they would rapidly be needing 220,000 batteries per year?

Battery price listed is interesting.
Must come from the $5,499 replacement battery price plus the $1,000 Nissan is saying the trade-in battery is worth; at 24 kWh that is $270 per kWh.
They're not too definitive on how much above $300 the real variable cost of production is, or how many $ per kWh would need to be added for paying capital debt for building the battery factories.

 

[evnow]

Why in the world would Nissan sign a contract requiring the purchase of 220,000 electrodes annually, regardless of sales?
Were electrodes in that short of supply?
Surely they didn't think they would rapidly be needing 220,000 batteries per year?

May be this information is not all that correct ? May be the contract is that they purchase upto 220k annually provided the demand exists - which would effectively prevent Nissan from buying from other suppliers.

BTW, if anyone here remembers, Nissan had difficult time increasing the production - and one of the reasons cited was ... electrodes were in short supply. Remember?

As usual in such leaks (and the journalists being not very accurate) - there is some truth but quite a bit of distortion.

 

[JPWhite]

BTW, if anyone here remembers, Nissan had difficult time increasing the production - and one of the reasons cited was ... electrodes were in short supply. Remember?

I remember and at the time I found that excuse to be weak. I think they limited supply purposefully.

 

[ydnas7]

Surely they didn't think they would rapidly be needing 220,000 batteries per year?

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&tl=en&u=http://www.nec.co.jp/press/ja/1012/2702.html&rurl=translate.google.com&twu=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

10 million kWh is actually 400,000 x 25kWh batteries per year.

its a 10 Gigawatt cathode production facility.

GIGAFACTORY

if your powers of google and NEC and Japanese are strong enough, there is even a picture of the facility

there is a difference between having a 10 Gigawatt cathode powder production facility (NEC) and a x# electrode coating facility (AESC) and an y# cell assembly facility (Nissan)

each step is constrained to be no more than the upstream step.

my interpretation was that NEC built out the cathode powder facility for 10 gigawatt supply of cathode powder for Nissan (ie size of rotary kiln) but only built out ~2 gigawatt of cathode electrode sheeting manufacture which later also became the supplier for Mitsubishi (note Mitsubishi use different cells with NMC blending instead of NCA blending, wound instead of stacked etc)

so cathode powder is big factory, (similar to how blast furnaces are big)
cathode sheet is sequential factory (similar to how aluminum produces use many pots)

 

[surfingslovak]

The cars go to auction, some picked up by used car dealers and many thousands are shipped overseas with a huge portion going to Norway alone. Very few Nissan dealers buy them for their lots. Europe is contributing to your resale value.

Yes, this has been the case since 2011.

 

[surfingslovak]

What you see as depressing, I see as normal and necessary maturation of the technology and market. Nissan/AESC developed their battery in a competitive vacuum. Although the safety of their cells is laudable and avoidance of thermal management systems has some desirable consequences, they didn't quite hit the mark for what the market is starting to demand. In part this is from public perception fostered by Tesla. And even more importantly from the prospect of going head-to-head with Tesla in the not-too-distant future. Quite naturally Nissan, if they intend to stay in the game, are re-evaluating and looking for better batteries.

Well said! Quite frankly, when the extent of the early degradation issue became clear in the summer of 2012, I had a feeling that this does not bode well for Nissan's battery tech. I just did not realize that they could be that far behind competitively. Meanwhile, LG Chem stormed the barn, and BMW went with Samsung. It looks like batteries are best left to the specialists right now. As the volume increases, and the technology matures, it might be more appropriate to bring more of that process in-house. What this shows is that Nissan's strategy might have been a bit too aggressive.

 

[JPWhite]

It looks like batteries are best left to the specialists right now. As the volume increases, and the technology matures, it might be more appropriate to bring more of that process in-house.

Agree the specialists should do the R&D for Battery tech. However why not copy Tesla's model? Nissan have the factories, so just do a licensing deal/partner with LG in order to utilize the Nissan factories where the batteries need to be made. Shipping batteries from South Korea makes no sense.

 

[edatoakrun]

As posted days ago on pg three of this thread:

Nissan-Renault Alliance Doesn't Plan to Shutter Battery Factories

Companies Dispute Media Report

Sept. 15, 2014 11:21 a.m. ET

Nissan Motor Co. and Renault SA are looking for ways to reduce battery costs and share more components between electric vehicles, but they don't plan to shutter battery factories in the U.S. and U.K.

The companies, which share partial ownership and technology, frequently review their battery procurement efforts as part of the effort to reduce costs on the electric Nissan Leaf and the Renault Zoe, a company official said. The review, however, doesn't contemplate reducing employment or production at battery factories in the U.S. or the United Kingdom, the company said, responding to a report by Reuters Monday.

"The Renault-Nissan Alliance remains 100% committed to its industry-leading EV program. This global commitment continues for the foreseeable future, and we haven't taken any decision whatsoever to modify battery sourcing allocation. Nissan has no plans to impair its battery investments," said Rachel Konrad, the chief spokeswoman for the Nissan-Renault Alliance...

http://online.wsj.com/articles/nissan-renault-alliance-doesnt-plan-to-shutter-battery-factories-1410794479" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nissan took on a partner in battery production years ago since they anticipated (correctly, IMO) that A BEV manufacturer had a dim future if it did not participate in battery design and production in order to integrate the battery/vehicle design.

It looks like Tesla has come to the same conclusion (A few years later) and I expect Tesla will likely also follow Nissan in using more stable large-format batteries that do not require liquid cooling.

It is possible Nissan is not satisfied with their current partner (though the Reuters article claimed to be sourced mainly from Renault) and will take on other partner(s) instead, whether next month, next year, or never, time will tell.

 

[evnow]

Given the political history - replacing Japanese batteries with Korean would be a very touchy subject in Japan.

I expect some kind of compromise with rewritten contract between Nissan and AESC - and some kind of sourcing agreement with LG. No battery factories will be shuttered.

 

[ydnas7]

It looks like Tesla has come to the same conclusion (A few years later) and I expect Tesla will likely also follow Nissan in using more stable large-format batteries that do not require liquid cooling.

No, Tesla has already indicated that the gigafactory cell will be about 10% larger in each dimension compared to 18650, ie 22700 or similar.

And it makes sense, stable large-format batteries are best made with safe ingredients, the more burnable the ingredient, the better it is to use smaller cells.
So NCA, NMC etc are best in small packages, like how Tesla uses them
Mn spinels and LiFePO4 can be used in stable large format batteries.

the middle ground, is large format, unstable chemistries, sounds expensive, even if it just for risk contingency provisions. The industry in general wants DIN format (large format) and high energy density (unstable chemistries) because it facilitates reuse of ICE platforms.

2014 1st half, the worlds best sellers was
LEAF (NEC supplier to ASEC) Mn2O4
Mitsubishi (NEC supplier to GS Yuasa) Mn2O4
Tesla Model S (Panasonic small cell) NCA
http://ev-sales.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/world-top-10-july-2014.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

1 Nissan Leaf 32,809
2 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 18,538
3 Tesla Model S 16,032
4 Toyota Prius Plug-In 12,547
5 Chevrolet Volt 12,084

 

[evnow]

http://www.tennessean.com/story/money/cars/2014/09/17/nissans-battery-plant-running-juice/15744453/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some extra information about Smyrna.

Shuttering the Smyrna battery plant could put its 400 employees out of work, and call into question the huge investment Nissan made in the facility, whose cost was partially underwritten by a loan of $1.4 billion from the U.S. Department of Energy. Altogether, Nissan has said it is spending $1.7 billion on the battery plant and modifications to the Smyrna assembly facility to build the battery packs and the Leaf cars.

Since opening, the plant has built 47,409 battery packs through August, while it has the capacity to make 100,000 a year, Nissan spokesman Justin Saia said. Battery production is up 39.7 percent in 2014 compared with last year, he added.

 

[ydnas7]

am i a dinosaur to remember this
http://www.nec.com/en/press/201206/global_20120606_01.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[ydnas7]

Nissan's current annual report is very EV focused
http://www.nissan-global.com/EN/DOCUMENT/PDF/AR/2014/AR2014_E_All.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

pg 19,20,21,22
etc

 

[evnow]

Scrap Nissan's Leaf battery plant? Hardly

http://www.autonews.com/article/20140917/BLOG06/140919855/scrap-nissans-leaf-battery-plant?-hardly" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Regardless of who sells Nissan and Renault their future “battery technology,” finished EV battery modules will still have to be manufactured. Nissan decreed five years ago that its EV batteries must be made at the same assembly location as the vehicles they will power, for cost, logistics and quality control reasons. In this case, the electric Nissan Leaf is also assembled in Smyrna, a short stroll from the battery line.
....
For two global automakers to debate the merits of their battery science vendors as they expand their portfolios of EVs is the normal course of business. Expecting the resulting procurement deals to shut down the product’s assembly line is nonsensical.

 

[evnow]

Nissan-Renault to keep battery factories open

Nissan Motor Co. and Renault SA are looking for ways to reduce battery costs and share more components between electric vehicles, but they don't plan to shutter battery factories in the U.S. and U.K.
....
In the U.S., Nissan received a $1.4 billion low-interest loan through the U.S. Department of Energy to finance its battery plant in Smyrna, Tenn. The plant opened near the end of 2012, creating a domestic source of batteries for the Nissan Leaf electric car, which reduced that car's price by more than $6,000. The company official said that shuttering the plant isn't a consideration and wouldn't even be feasible under the terms of the loan agreement.
....
At an event today in France, Mr. Ghosn responded to a question about whether the Renault-Nissan alliance's supply arrangement would remain in place by saying: "The battery is a means. The objective is the car."

 

[evnow]

http://transportevolved.com/2014/09/16/nissan-slashes-house-battery-manufacturing-electric-cars-failure/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nissan Considers Slashing In-House Battery Manufacturing, But It’s Not Because Electric Cars Are a Failure

Set to be the largest battery manufacturing facility in the world, the Gigafactory will be capable of producing lithium-ion battery packs at a fraction of the cost of existing battery plants around the world. Many orders of magnitude larger than Nissan’s in-house manufacturing facilities, the only way for Nissan to truly compete with Tesla in terms of price per kilowatt-hour and miles per unit price is to switch to larger-scale battery manufacturers like LG Chem — or perhaps to work with other automakers on its own Gigafactory project.

 

[DaveEV]

It looks like batteries are best left to the specialists right now.

Uh, NEC (Nissan's partner in AESC) is a battery specialist just like Samsung, LG, etc.

 

[mkjayakumar]

Nissan should simply partner with Tesla and be done with it.

Of course there is the pesky thing of, 'to TMS or not to TMS' which is like the wars on the processor architecture, 'To RISC or not to RISC'. I think RISC is fading away.

 

[JPWhite]

Nissan should simply partner with Tesla and be done with it.

Partner on the Supercharger network maybe. But partnership on batteries isn't likely since Nissan have bet on passive cooling, which long-term is probably the right approach once the batteries can live up to the task.

 

[surfingslovak]

It looks like batteries are best left to the specialists right now.

Uh, NEC (Nissan's partner in AESC) is a battery specialist just like Samsung, LG, etc.

Yes, of course. And just how well did this work out? The point being, adjustments to battery sourcing and the overall strategy are being considered because of competitive pressures. Both in terms of performance and price. If the current arrangement, and the levels of expertise brought to bear on this was satisfactory, I very much doubt that we would be hearing anything in terms of changes. There was a handy graphics, which showed the competitive landscape in the industry. I will go and find it. At this stage, I think a few players are emerging as winners and industry leaders.