2012 Oct Plugin Sales Discussion : Volt 2,961 ; Leaf 1,579

[DaveinOlyWA]

glad to see LEAF sales in the reasonable category. still somewhat low considering the lease rates they have going. now with reports of some dealers running low or being out of them, wondering what Nov sales will be

any guesses here

up?
down?
about the same?

 

[GetOffYourGas]

For it to be successful, they need worldwide sales at least 5 times that amount...

I'm starting to get some hope that the Leaf will survive and thrive. After the past 6 months of a few hundred sales, I was beginning to get seriously worried about the continuation of the Leaf. I just hope that Nissan can sustain sales over 1000 per month

Define "successful". We all want the Leaf to be a hit, but I'm concerned first about its survival. Plenty of cars continue to be made and sold at rates less than 5000 per month. Most cars that hover around 200-300 per month get discontinued.

The next few years, the success of the EV is anything but certain. We hope that eventually the technology will advance to the point that ICEs look horrible by comparison, but for most casual car shoppers, we're not there yet. If the Leaf dies in the next few years, it will be even harder to get there. Technology doesn't just improve on its own - we need a strong economic reason to improve it. This is still a predominantly capitalist country (despite what many ultra-conservatives may say).

 

[adric22]

The next few years, the success of the EV is anything but certain. .

I disagree with that statement. While I will agree that the future of any specific car is in question, I wouldn't say the market segment as a whole. For example, if Leaf sales are too weak and the vehicle is discontinued, then most likely those potential customers will flock to the Volt or C-Max, etc. So each time one vehicle falls off the map, it will strengthen the others. Lets hope it doesn't come to that.

Besides. There is another way of looking at things. Take the Prius plug-in, C-Max Energi, Fusion Energi, Focus EV. These vehicles are essentially minor modifications of a better-selling gas or hybrid vehicle, especially the first 3 I mentioned. So they don't have to sell a whole lot of them to keep the product on the market since they share so much with the high-volume version. The Leaf and Volt on the other hand have heavy investments and need to sell more to make it worth their while.

I really don't see any circumstance in which there is a repeat of last decade where all of the EVs on the road will be cancelled.

 

[OrientExpress]

In Nissan's US portfolio, for October the LEAF outsold the Cube, 370Z, GT-R, Armada, Quest, NV, and the Infiniti G Coupe, M, QX, EX, and FX.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

The next few years, the success of the EV is anything but certain. .

I disagree with that statement. While I will agree that the future of any specific car is in question, I wouldn't say the market segment as a whole. For example, if Leaf sales are too weak and the vehicle is discontinued, then most likely those potential customers will flock to the Volt or C-Max, etc. So each time one vehicle falls off the map, it will strengthen the others. Lets hope it doesn't come to that.

Besides. There is another way of looking at things. Take the Prius plug-in, C-Max Energi, Fusion Energi, Focus EV. These vehicles are essentially minor modifications of a better-selling gas or hybrid vehicle, especially the first 3 I mentioned. So they don't have to sell a whole lot of them to keep the product on the market since they share so much with the high-volume version. The Leaf and Volt on the other hand have heavy investments and need to sell more to make it worth their while.

I really don't see any circumstance in which there is a repeat of last decade where all of the EVs on the road will be cancelled.

Let me be more specific and say "BEV". Every alternative you mentioned has a gasoline motor on board (except the Focus EV, but that's not high enough volume to matter much). Yes, they are wonderful steps in the right direction, but I personally want to ditch the gas engine completely.

Look at it this way. If I am Nissan, and trying to improve the Leaf year to year, I will try to make the battery larger. This means more range, and gentler quick charges. If I am Chevrolet and trying to improve the Volt year to year, I will try to make the battery cheaper. There are diminishing returns in making the battery larger, since 40 miles covers maybe 75% of miles driven while doubling it to 80 miles only increases that coverage to about 85%. If you don't believe me, check out Voltstats.

I know most of us believe that path will eventually lead to cheap enough batteries to jump to pure EV, but I worry that without a pure EV on the market, that jump will take longer to arrive.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i think 1500 a month is a fine sales figure. granted not where the end point is in all this but a great point to be at this point in the game.

as more LEAFs get out onto the road and their exposure level goes up we will get some buyers who would normally have even considered the option due to their level of "unawareness"

i still see people every week who had no idea that "gasless" was an option on the streets. now one issue to contend with is the 60 cent price drop in gasoline...

 

[DaveEV]

If I am Nissan, and trying to improve the Leaf year to year, I will try to make the battery larger. This means more range, and gentler quick charges. If I am Chevrolet and trying to improve the Volt year to year, I will try to make the battery cheaper.

Good point - though obviously there is a market for the current range of the LEAF - it just needs to be cheaper, too, given how well sales have responded to a modest price drop.

I really like the Tesla model of offering different amounts of capacity/performance - even though I think you will end up with the highest capacity pack selling in the highest volume...

 

[SanDust]

The Volt is doing OK. If nothing else it's outselling most of the Cadillac models which are in its price range.

The Leaf not so much. Obviously Nissan needs to learn how to market the car more successfully. Personally I don't really understand why it has't been more successful. The Leaf may not be for everyone but lots of people could use an EV for local driving. Other than the loss of battery capacity, which is significant, I don't see any technical barriers to more widespread adoption.

 

[adric22]

The Volt is doing OK. If nothing else it's outselling most of the Cadillac models which are in its price range.

The Leaf not so much. Obviously Nissan needs to learn how to market the car more successfully. Personally I don't really understand why it has't been more successful. The Leaf may not be for everyone but lots of people could use an EV for local driving. Other than the loss of battery capacity, which is significant, I don't see any technical barriers to more widespread adoption.

Well when all of their marketing has been aimed towards the tree-hugging crowd, it is a no-brainer. Hopefully they'll figure out that other people like electric cars too and if you show them how fun it is to drive and how cheap it is to own, I think more people would switch. But when you advertise to the tree-huggers it makes everyone else think that owning an electric car is a bummer, but people are willing to do it for the cause.

 

[smkettner]

The real shake out will be in the next 12 to 18 months. Nothing before sales reports next summer should be a worry.

 

[Stanton]

Is it not obvious that the Leaf is SUPPLY limited? I don't see dealer lots full of them, and I consistently have people ask me about mine (as has been mentioned, some folks still don't understand that you can drive a 100% electric car). We can start prognosticating about future sales when the Smyrna plant comes online and the supply significantly outstrips demand.

 

[bradbissell]

While the leaf may be a bit supply limited in areas, it is not in others. Most dealers in the local area (north of Boston) do not have any LEAFs on the lot, but the one that does has 6 and they have been there since last January. The problem with supply out stripping demand is that there will be a lot of LEAFs sitting on the lots with their batteries degrading.

I for one am waiting on the 2013 model due to changes, a fresh battery, and I have a feeling others are doing the same.

 

[Jay]

Wicked hard getting all the numbers this month.

Finally got the RAV4 EV number - 47

October 2012 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card
http://insideevs.com/october-2012-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Only waiting on Ford (w/Focus Electric)...but I just can't bring myself to wade through their conference call yet/ (does anyone really care that much? lol)

 

[Jay]

Ford Focus Electric: 112
C-Max Energi: 5

(via plugincars.com...not confirmed as of yet via Ford press)

...and it looks like our Ford guy has some explaining to do on those C-Max Energi sales

EDIT/UPDATE: Nope. 118 and 144 respectively on the FFE and C-Max Energi. No clue what plugincars was doing, sigh.

 

[redLEAF]

Ford Focus Electric: 112
C-Max Energi: 5

(via plugincars.com...not confirmed as of yet via Ford press)

...and it looks like our Ford guy has some explaining to do on those C-Max Energi sales

Hey, give them a break, the C-Max Energi wasn't for sale yet in October where as it was the 'regular' hybrids version's first full month being available at 3,182 sold (beating the Prius v at 2,769) --

http://rumors.automobilemag.com/for...s-v-beating-october-sales-numbers-182579.html

 

[KJD]

Here we go ...

Volt : 2,961
PlugInPrius : 1,889
Leaf : 1,579
Model S : 290 (est)
Karma : 75 (est)
FFE :
Mitsu I : 30

CA Only
---------
Honda Fit : 16
RAV 4 EV :

Is anyone else surprised at how well the PIP is actually doing. The dealer here said that most Toyota dealers do not even stock this car yet.

For me the price seems pretty high for only a 15 mile EV range.

 

[TomT]

I think you are going to see the numbers drop off once the I'll-buy-one-regardless-because-it-is-a-Toyota buyers are fulfilled. I agree that it doesn't really make much sense for most with such incredibly short range, and the slightly increased gas mileage does not make up for it. Once the 40,000 California car pool stickers are used up, I think you'll see an even bigger drop off in sales.

Is anyone else surprised at how well the PIP is actually doing. The dealer here said that most Toyota dealers do not even stock this car yet.
For me the price seems pretty high for only a 15 mile EV range.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Here we go ...

Volt : 2,961
PlugInPrius : 1,889
Leaf : 1,579
Model S : 290 (est)
Karma : 75 (est)
FFE :
Mitsu I : 30

CA Only
---------
Honda Fit : 16
RAV 4 EV :

Is anyone else surprised at how well the PIP is actually doing. The dealer here said that most Toyota dealers do not even stock this car yet.

For me the price seems pretty high for only a 15 mile EV range.

not surprised at the sales of the PiP, but am surprised that "most" of us consider the main selling point to be the EV range.

it is essentially a car that seats 4 comfortably and easily gets 60+ mpg for all driving types. most who want to are getting 80+ mpg. the reason for this is the synergy drive in the Prius where the gas and electric combine to hit the road running. its well known, undoubtedly reversed engineered by everyone and highly sought after solution...that no one has seemed to figure out yet. add to that a plug and you have HSD on steroids. it would be a major stretch to have thought the main reason to buy the Prius was to EV around...unless its to EV around the block...ONLY


it also qualifies for some BS status in CA for carpooling or something

lets break out the CA sales from the PiP total and see where we are at

 

[adric22]

lets break out the CA sales from the PiP total and see where we are at

That isn't entirely fair either being that the PiP isn't even available in many areas yet and CA is its biggest market even without the carpool stickers.

But I agree that the price is too high compared to a regular prius

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

lets break out the CA sales from the PiP total and see where we are at

That isn't entirely fair either being that the PiP isn't even available in many areas yet and CA is its biggest market even without the carpool stickers.

But I agree that the price is too high compared to a regular prius

the price can be high or can be low depending on what we compare the car to.

one thing i have to question is the 15 mile EV range. not many people are seeing that. make it 10...sometimes 12.

so if PiP price is X and Volt is X+Y and PiP range is 10...ok make it 12 and Volt is 40 then the only real discussion is the value of Y correct? and how it corresponds to the 28 mile difference?

dont see the PiP as being that over priced but then again, that is probably the wrong point of view since i am comparing something that has been accused of being overpriced