2014 May Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 3117, Total 12053

[adric22]

Unbelievable that the PiP managed 2,692 sales.. And i was expecting those sales to go DOWN this time due to lack of HOV stickers. What continues to amaze me is that they sell this many and still only in a limited market. Why don't they roll it out to all 50 states?

 

[Nubo]

Have Tesla sales 'maxed'? Will they even be close to 2013's?

At some point they are going to run out of customers for the Model S. They really need to get that ~$45k model rolling if they hope to continue.

No. There is another.

There are reservation holders for Model X that have been waiting 2 years...


But, Congratulations Nissan!!

 

[GRA]

I'd love to see a breakdown by state for the LEAF and PiP. Did PiP buyers not get the word that the green stickers are gone? Were LEAF sales boosted by customers scared that GA would eliminate or slash the subsidy?

 

[lorenfb]

Tesla is building about 600/week and is ramping up to about 1000/week by the end of the year.
There are about 1000 cars "in the pipe" that are being delivered overseas.
The estimates, as I recall, are about half of production for the US and half for the rest of the world.

As for running out of buyers,the luxury market in just the US is 1,000,000/year. I don't expect them to run out anytime soon. The wait list is currently backed up to September.

It's rather naive to assume that Tesla's total available market (TAM) for luxury vehicles is the same TAM
as for Lexus, M/B. BMW, & Porsche. Those potential other luxury vehicle buyers basically all have the
same basic homogeneous needs & values when buying. Most couldn't care less about; climate change/global
warming, dependence on foreign oil, or fuel costs, which are key factors for many Tesla & BEV buyers.
Many luxury vehicle buyers don't even consider a Tesla nor desire a BEV. That's not to say, though,
that there isn't an overlap between Tesla's actual TAM and the luxury TAM. Just because a vehicle
is called a luxury vehicle doesn't necessarily mean it's in the exact same market as other luxury
vehicles and that it fulfills the typical buyers' needs of that market.

The same market analysis of the Leaf's TAM versus the economy vehicles, e.g. Altima, Accord, etc.,
TAM exists. The Leaf's TAM overlaps the other low end economy vehicles but it does not include
that overall TAM. One can just review the surveys posted on this website about what motivates a Leaf
purchase. Many of factors mentioned, as for Tesla buyers, aren't even considered by Altima nor
Accord buyers.

At the present Tesla sales run-rate (less than 2013), they have a big 'nut' in the next seven months.
Tesla may be in the long run just a niche 'player' once the early-adopter market saturates or when
the novelty ends. The 'jury-will-be-out' for a few more years, at minimum, as to whether the Tesla
is truly a "disrupter". If anyone can be considered a "disrupter", then maybe Nissan with the Leaf
should have the moniker given the total BEV units produced.

 

[Zythryn]

...
It's rather naive to assume that Tesla's total available market (TAM) for luxury vehicles is the same TAM
as for Lexus, M/B. BMW, & Porsche. Those potential other luxury vehicle buyers basically all have the
same basic homogeneous needs & values when buying. Most couldn't care less about; climate change/global
warming, dependence on foreign oil, or fuel costs, which are key factors for many Tesla & BEV buyers.

It is a bit presumptuous to assume that Tesla buyers are all concerned about the environment.
Just how many have you asked?

I just spoke to a gentleman today who had some questions about how often and where I charged.
He is a BMW M5 owner and from the impression I got, doesn't give a rip about AGW or the environment. Later, I had dinner with a number of owners, many of which bought the car purely for performance reasons.
I have also been told by multiple sources that Prius owners are the biggest conquest sales at a bit over 3%. BMW and Mercedes are the next most popular conquest sales.

Tesla is producing an efficient car (no, not as efficient as the Leaf) that appeals to muscle and performance car enthusiasts. I see evidence of this at every Cars and Coffee event and performance car show I go to.
To assume the Model S is only bought by the limited market you described is simply not supported by any data I have seen, nor by anyone I have spoken to.

 

[mkjayakumar]

lorenfb wrote:
...
It's rather naive to assume that Tesla's
.....
Most couldn't care less about; climate change/global warming, dependence on foreign oil, or fuel costs, which are key factors for many Tesla & BEV buyers. Many luxury vehicle buyers don't even consider a Tesla nor desire a BEV.

It is rather naive and a bit insulting to suggest that most Tesla buyers are tree-huggers and greenies. I bet most folks who buy a Model S, buy it because it is a superior car to a BMW or Mercedes or Porsche in that price range. So the TAM for Model S is almost all of luxury market, minus those that cannot have a charging infrastructure at their homes such as city apartment dwellers and condos that have restrictions.

 

[evnow]

It is rather naive and a bit insulting to suggest that most Tesla buyers are tree-huggers and greenies.

"tree-huggers" and "greenies" are not "insulting" terms. Infact to imply as such is insulting to tree-huggers and greenies.

The statement that Model S owners are mostly "tree-huggers" and "greenies" may be incorrect (though this is all speculation and I've not seen any polls that show motivation of Model S buyers) - but not insulting.

 

[KJD]

It is rather naive and a bit insulting to suggest that most Tesla buyers are tree-huggers and greenies.

"tree-huggers" and "greenies" are not "insulting" terms. Infact to imply as such is insulting to tree-huggers and greenies.

+1

 

[evnow]

Now back on topic.

Looks like we have a blockbuster month. Infact the highest of any month - 11,680+ (fiat & smart still pending).

 

[Nubo]

It is rather naive and a bit insulting to suggest that most Tesla buyers are tree-huggers and greenies. I bet most folks who buy a Model S, buy it because it is a superior car to a BMW or Mercedes or Porsche in that price range. So the TAM for Model S is almost all of luxury market, minus those that cannot have a charging infrastructure at their homes such as city apartment dwellers and condos that have restrictions.

I think it captures multiple and overlapping markets. The high-end "luxury" buyer is one. Witness Consumer Reports relating the Model S as the best car they ever tested - bar none. Luxury-car buyers are quite often concerned with buying the best. The car also appeals to the high-tech early-adopter market. And finally to the environmentally conscious, who will sometimes stretch to afford a Tesla as opposed to a sub-100 mile EV, if they need the range. The Tesla is aspirational from several directions and that's a pretty good place to be. And I think it also provides a halo effect for cars like LEAF.

 

[GRA]

It is rather naive and a bit insulting to suggest that most Tesla buyers are tree-huggers and greenies.

"tree-huggers" and "greenies" are not "insulting" terms. Infact to imply as such is insulting to tree-huggers and greenies.

The statement that Model S owners are mostly "tree-huggers" and "greenies" may be incorrect (though this is all speculation and I've not seen any polls that show motivation of Model S buyers) - but not insulting.

You must have missed this, comparing Prius and Model S owners' interests:

http://www.gravity.com/blog/what-your-electric-car-says-about-you/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A few quotes.

Prius fans:

"6.3 times more likely to be concerned about Sustainability" [than the general public]

"Perhaps unsurprisingly, they are keenly interested in Eco-friendly subject matters and Social Change."

"Prius fans are 1.62 times more likely to be interested in sustainable transportations than Tesla fans."

Tesla:

"Turns out that people interested in the Tesla Model S are materially different in their interests than the Prius crowd."

"They like things that go. private transportation, Ferraris, and motorcycles were of high interest."

"Environmentalism is not a substantial area of interest in the Tesla Model S Interest Graph. This may indicate that Tesla interest is driven by the technological or aspirational aspects of the brand rather than it’s environmental benefits. This is supported by the fact that, while the Tesla audience is 8.5 times more likely to be interested in fuel efficiency than the general population, Prius fans are 4x more likely to be interested than the Tesla folks (34x general population)."

 

[GRA]

Just to keep things in perspective so we don't get too giddy, while monthly PEV sales hit a (estimated) new high of 12,053, that was out of 1,606,264 total sales, or a yearly rate of 16.77 million. So we're up to 0.75%, which is nice, but there's still a long way to go. All AFV sales for May can be found here:

http://green.autoblog.com/2014/06/04/may-2014-green-car-sales-numbers/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Just to keep things in perspective so we don't get too giddy, while monthly PEV sales hit a (estimated) new high of 12,053, that was out of 1,606,264 total sales, or a yearly rate of 16.77 million. So we're up to 0.75%, which is nice, but there's still a long way to go. All AFV sales for May can be found here:

http://green.autoblog.com/2014/06/04/may-2014-green-car-sales-numbers/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

well, its tough to run a race alone... oh! forgot about Tesla

 

[davidcary]

Tesla sales decreasing is a red herring of course. If Tesla was just staying in the US, the total PEV would have been higher.

I know quite a few Tesla owners. The 4 I have talked to about it, 1 bought for environmental reasons. So there is the poll, about 25% of Tesla owners are environmentally focused. He came from a Prius. The other three came from Maserati, Porsche and BMW 650.

The potential uptake for Tesla is way higher than current sales. As more neighbors get them, the concept burns in to the well healed. When Model X comes out, there will be another surge in interest. When the resale market values the car at >95% of original purchase price almost every time, demand is not soft.

Congrats on the Leaf for 3000!

 

[evnow]

You must have missed this, comparing Prius and Model S owners' interests:

http://www.gravity.com/blog/what-your-electric-car-says-about-you/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I had not seen that before - but it is not a poll of owners. It is using some data mining techniques to infer interest.

"Interest" in Tesla is very different from owning one - the big difference being interested in TSLA the stock. I don't expect people trading in TSLA to have any more interest in sustainability ...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

You must have missed this, comparing Prius and Model S owners' interests:

http://www.gravity.com/blog/what-your-electric-car-says-about-you/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I had not seen that before - but it is not a poll of owners. It is using some data mining techniques to infer interest.

"Interest" in Tesla is very different from owning one - the big difference being interested in TSLA the stock. I don't expect people trading in TSLA to have any more interest in sustainability ...

i have a huge interest in Tesla but will never own one... well unless i win the lottery i wont

 

[lorenfb]

"When Model X comes out, there will be another surge in interest."

Maybe a "surge in interest" but far from the initial MS actual sales.
Besides, SUV sales have flatten or turned down, as the new interest is in cross-overs/minivans.

 

[evnow]

"When Model X comes out, there will be another surge in interest."

Maybe a "surge in interest" but far from the initial MS actual sales.
Besides, SUV sales have flatten or turned down, as the new interest is in cross-overs/minivans.

Luxury SUVs grew by 9.5% ytd. 24% in may.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesB" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[davidcary]

Model X is a crossover. The platform is the Model S and since the platform is a car, then it is a crossover not a SUV.

10,000 reservations and the volume production date is still a year away. I believe reservations are $5000 so not insignificant. And don't forget, it will be the new latest and greatest. I'm waiting for my Model S when the Model X gets delivered in volume as there will be a large number of used Model S's on the market.

Has any car ever had $50 million in deposits a year from volume production?

 

[lorenfb]

"The platform is the Model S and since the platform is a car, then it is a crossover not a SUV."

It's claimed to be a 4 wheel drive, so hardly the MS platform.

"10,000 reservations and the volume production date is still a year away."

Right, and many still buy the TSLA stock at over $200 when all financial metrics indicate otherwise.
A lot happens in a year. So dream on!