DaveinOlyWA said:
Nubo said:
In my experience, the convenience (and time factor) runs the other direction. I always found that having to divert to get gasoline, was a total drag. Not only due to cost, but my time. And somehow I always seemed to need gas when I was running late or already in a hurry for some other reason. Walking out to a vehicle that's always fully ready for my day is a great convenience. For me, taking a few seconds to plug and unplug is far preferable to the typical experience of gassing up.
Of course, this assumes that at-home charging covers most of your range needs. It does for me. Not sure whether or not that disqualifies me from being "mainstream", however I'm pretty sure that my situation is not at all unusual.
have to agree. getting gas for the Prius has become a logistical hassle. SO took Prius to work this morning but it will be on blinking bar when she gets home. so wont need it again till tues so have to get gas for it sometime this weekend and not looking forward to it.
as far as "mainstream" I have to say, i must be a rebel because i dont want any part of Mainstream America
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Dave, most of the people here (and everyone who's bought or leased an EV) aren't mainstream, at least in some areas. That's fine, but unless you can sell a car that's acceptable to the mainstream, the numbers will remain miniscule.
A year ago there was lot's of talk here about heated motorcycle vests, and I posted then that I cringed every time I read one of those. This year we seem to have moved on to motorcycle jackets, heated socks and electric blankets, and I cringe even more. If someone has to wear special heated motorcycle clothing just to stay comfortably warm in a BEV, then they might as well ride a motorcycle and get the benefits of one; it can even be an electric motorcycle if they want to be more green.
Dave, how many millions of U.S. consumers, who've had effective heaters (barring VW Bugs/Buses) in their cars since the 1920s, do you think will be willing to put on special heated clothes just so they have enough range to get to/from work? How many will be willing to swelter inside their cars in summer without A/C in 90+ deg. heat, likewise? How many do you think will be willing to pay upwards of $25,000 for the privilege, plus whatever extra it costs them to install an EVSE at home, and maybe need to find a charger (often inconveniently located) during the day to make it home?
People like Train and I figure the number is at best a few hundred thousand (out of a U.S. LDV fleet of approx. 250 million), not because people are afraid of something new, but because they're not willing to put up with the hassle and extra anxiety given the current economics. What evidence do you see that leads you to think the number is larger; it certainly isn't sales?
The mainstream market will transition via high mileage ICE -> HEV -> PHEV until the battery prices come down enough that affordable BEV range increases to an acceptable level. We're only just starting now to get some full HEVs that aren't the driving experience equivalent of wearing a hair shirt, and I expect the increased choice will finally boost sales up to the 10% range in a year or two, assuming gas prices don't crater in the meantime. PHEVs with AERs in the 15-20 mile range have a small enough price premium over HEVs that greens/energy security types can afford one easily enough. And there are the longer range PHEVs and BEVs for the firsties/techies/greens with the income to let ideology/image trump economics, or whose personal situation happens to include some combination of cheap electricity/high gas prices/short driving ranges/mild climate/lots of government incentives that the economics work for them (ignoring unknown battery replacement cost).