Ghosn finally concedes 2012 EV targets will not be met

[thankyouOB]

(hi dave, and happy day after)

not spending any time at the gas station and walking out of the house as well as to the parking lot at work to a car that is fully fueled is a pleasure and does not get enough reason-to-buy points.
never have to spend time gassing up when i am worried about late-to-work.

once you try no-gas-station life, you never want to go back.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

(hi dave, and happy day after)

not spending any time at the gas station and walking out of the house as well as to the parking lot at work to a car that is fully fueled is a pleasure and does not get enough reason-to-buy points.
never have to spend time gassing up when i am worried about late-to-work.

once you try no-gas-station life, you never want to go back.

Amen to that! its amazing how quickly i became accustomed to being out of the "Stream". i used to look forward to getting gas in the Prius so I could go online and brag about how cheaply i drive. now, its an embarrassment!

its more than 3X more expensive than the LEAF and the "range convenience" factor? I can easily get over it. SO, during winter; not so much. But with the heated jacket, she is a bit more willing but more importantly the fact that t Blinks are being installed in the public parking lot in the back of the hospital she works at has really made her feel better about long term viability. before she was not happy about having to stop at Wendys (a half mile detour on the way home) to get a charge although she most likely would grab the boost at lunch so it would not add to her commute time home.

add to that; the Prius will be needing tires this coming Spring. its just past 45,000 miles on the OEM tires and I think they are rated for 50,000 or so. Oil change (synthetic runs about $70 here) in the next 1000 miles... DAMN!! $70??

that is 3 months in the LEAF! (with some added free QC's of course!) ahhh the Humanity!!

 

[GRA]

In my experience, the convenience (and time factor) runs the other direction. I always found that having to divert to get gasoline, was a total drag. Not only due to cost, but my time. And somehow I always seemed to need gas when I was running late or already in a hurry for some other reason. Walking out to a vehicle that's always fully ready for my day is a great convenience. For me, taking a few seconds to plug and unplug is far preferable to the typical experience of gassing up.

Of course, this assumes that at-home charging covers most of your range needs. It does for me. Not sure whether or not that disqualifies me from being "mainstream", however I'm pretty sure that my situation is not at all unusual.

have to agree. getting gas for the Prius has become a logistical hassle. SO took Prius to work this morning but it will be on blinking bar when she gets home. so wont need it again till tues so have to get gas for it sometime this weekend and not looking forward to it.

as far as "mainstream" I have to say, i must be a rebel because i dont want any part of Mainstream America

http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com/2012/11/mainstreaming.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dave, most of the people here (and everyone who's bought or leased an EV) aren't mainstream, at least in some areas. That's fine, but unless you can sell a car that's acceptable to the mainstream, the numbers will remain miniscule.

A year ago there was lot's of talk here about heated motorcycle vests, and I posted then that I cringed every time I read one of those. This year we seem to have moved on to motorcycle jackets, heated socks and electric blankets, and I cringe even more. If someone has to wear special heated motorcycle clothing just to stay comfortably warm in a BEV, then they might as well ride a motorcycle and get the benefits of one; it can even be an electric motorcycle if they want to be more green.

Dave, how many millions of U.S. consumers, who've had effective heaters (barring VW Bugs/Buses) in their cars since the 1920s, do you think will be willing to put on special heated clothes just so they have enough range to get to/from work? How many will be willing to swelter inside their cars in summer without A/C in 90+ deg. heat, likewise? How many do you think will be willing to pay upwards of $25,000 for the privilege, plus whatever extra it costs them to install an EVSE at home, and maybe need to find a charger (often inconveniently located) during the day to make it home?

People like Train and I figure the number is at best a few hundred thousand (out of a U.S. LDV fleet of approx. 250 million), not because people are afraid of something new, but because they're not willing to put up with the hassle and extra anxiety given the current economics. What evidence do you see that leads you to think the number is larger; it certainly isn't sales?

The mainstream market will transition via high mileage ICE -> HEV -> PHEV until the battery prices come down enough that affordable BEV range increases to an acceptable level. We're only just starting now to get some full HEVs that aren't the driving experience equivalent of wearing a hair shirt, and I expect the increased choice will finally boost sales up to the 10% range in a year or two, assuming gas prices don't crater in the meantime. PHEVs with AERs in the 15-20 mile range have a small enough price premium over HEVs that greens/energy security types can afford one easily enough. And there are the longer range PHEVs and BEVs for the firsties/techies/greens with the income to let ideology/image trump economics, or whose personal situation happens to include some combination of cheap electricity/high gas prices/short driving ranges/mild climate/lots of government incentives that the economics work for them (ignoring unknown battery replacement cost).

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

GRA; the people who would buy heated clothing; 1-2%

people who would simply blast the heat; 30%

people who would wear a coat and use heat occasionally because heated seats/steering wheel is enough; 20%

there is a lot of people with greatly varying needs. I know people who drive a LEAF and have the heat on ALL the time. they are fine. even if you blasted the heat at 80º you still have an easy 50 mile range. average commute still under 40 miles.

and ya, this wont work for everyone but it does not have too. EVs penetrating just 2% of the market would mean that all the current EV manufacturers would have to increase their production 4X. when this happens, others will join or maybe simply move from "compliance" status into real production.

Hybrids have been out and about for nearly 10 years and would anyone consider them mainstream? around here its hard not to think of them like that since 1 in 10 cars on the road here is a Prius. but they constitute a very small part of the market but are still considered successful.

so what constitutes mainstream? is is something that is acceptable in all walks of life? well, dont have a car like that.

is it something that is a primary fit for the majority of peoples transportation needs? dont have a car like that.

fact is; every car on the market today has strong points and requires compromise in one way or another. its either size, configuration, cost, dealer/service availability, etc.

all the percentages above are pure guesses. I find that the Male species has a much higher tolerance for temperature extremes on both ends.

completely discounting an option based on some limitations is fine and dandy as a personal choice but there is a huge variety of personal choices out there and I think there is a huge EV market that is being stymied by misinformation and misconceptions.

 

[downeykp]

I think comparing the Prius to the Leaf in its infancy does have some merit. People at first didn't know what the heck the Prius was. But people learned that the Prius was a car that you just put gas in and drove. It became a success because people did not have to compromise to drive one.
The Leaf on the other hand is nothing but a compromise. It's attributes are it is really fun to drive and it is also economical, (no trips to the gas station).
But that is where the fun stops. During the warmer months here in the PNW, there are not really many issues to deal with, heater use is not an issue. But now, when it is cold, range is a real issue. Joe Consumer should not have to put on ski clothes I order to drive to work. If I would have known that the heater was going to make the car range very limited in 2010 when I ordered, I would have passed.
So I am stuck with a car that my wife is not comfortable driving to work for her 40 mile commute. She is not comfortable with the gauge showing empty even though there are 10-20 miles left. People in gas cars do not like it when the low fuel warning light comes on, why would Leaf owners be any different.
I wish Nissan would have been more forthright in the limitations of the car.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I think comparing the Prius to the Leaf in its infancy does have some merit. People at first didn't know what the heck the Prius was. But people learned that the Prius was a car that you just put gas in and drove. It became a success because people did not have to compromise to drive one.
The Leaf on the other hand is nothing but a compromise. It's attributes are it is really fun to drive and it is also economical, (no trips to the gas station).
But that is where the fun stops. During the warmer months here in the PNW, there are not really many issues to deal with, heater use is not an issue. But now, when it is cold, range is a real issue. Joe Consumer should not have to put on ski clothes I order to drive to work. If I would have known that the heater was going to make the car range very limited in 2010 when I ordered, I would have passed.
So I am stuck with a car that my wife is not comfortable driving to work for her 40 mile commute. She is not comfortable with the gauge showing empty even though there are 10-20 miles left. People in gas cars do not like it when the low fuel warning light comes on, why would Leaf owners be any different.
I wish Nissan would have been more forthright in the limitations of the car.

in your case, your wife will be fine. I know someone who drives Parkland to Olympia daily in a LEAF and she blasts the heat all the time. Her commute is just over 50 miles RT. She has learned to ignore the GOM. and this is really a minor failing on Nissan's part to not allow multiple ways to determine charge and range. Granted this is all new and Nissan has responded well in addressing various design issues and looks like changes are coming again for 2013 but they are still in danger of hampering the EV movement by "a thousand tiny cuts"

 

[downeykp]

So with one bar remaining and GOM in single digits she is still good for 10-20mi.?

I think comparing the Prius to the Leaf in its infancy does have some merit. People at first didn't know what the heck the Prius was. But people learned that the Prius was a car that you just put gas in and drove. It became a success because people did not have to compromise to drive one.
The Leaf on the other hand is nothing but a compromise. It's attributes are it is really fun to drive and it is also economical, (no trips to the gas station).
But that is where the fun stops. During the warmer months here in the PNW, there are not really many issues to deal with, heater use is not an issue. But now, when it is cold, range is a real issue. Joe Consumer should not have to put on ski clothes I order to drive to work. If I would have known that the heater was going to make the car range very limited in 2010 when I ordered, I would have passed.
So I am stuck with a car that my wife is not comfortable driving to work for her 40 mile commute. She is not comfortable with the gauge showing empty even though there are 10-20 miles left. People in gas cars do not like it when the low fuel warning light comes on, why would Leaf owners be any different.
I wish Nissan would have been more forthright in the limitations of the car.

in your case, your wife will be fine. I know someone who drives Parkland to Olympia daily in a LEAF and she blasts the heat all the time. Her commute is just over 50 miles RT. She has learned to ignore the GOM. and this is really a minor failing on Nissan's part to not allow multiple ways to determine charge and range. Granted this is all new and Nissan has responded well in addressing various design issues and looks like changes are coming again for 2013 but they are still in danger of hampering the EV movement by "a thousand tiny cuts"

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

So with one bar remaining and GOM in single digits she is still good for 10-20mi.?

I think comparing the Prius to the Leaf in its infancy does have some merit. People at first didn't know what the heck the Prius was. But people learned that the Prius was a car that you just put gas in and drove. It became a success because people did not have to compromise to drive one.
The Leaf on the other hand is nothing but a compromise. It's attributes are it is really fun to drive and it is also economical, (no trips to the gas station).
But that is where the fun stops. During the warmer months here in the PNW, there are not really many issues to deal with, heater use is not an issue. But now, when it is cold, range is a real issue. Joe Consumer should not have to put on ski clothes I order to drive to work. If I would have known that the heater was going to make the car range very limited in 2010 when I ordered, I would have passed.
So I am stuck with a car that my wife is not comfortable driving to work for her 40 mile commute. She is not comfortable with the gauge showing empty even though there are 10-20 miles left. People in gas cars do not like it when the low fuel warning light comes on, why would Leaf owners be any different.
I wish Nissan would have been more forthright in the limitations of the car.

in your case, your wife will be fine. I know someone who drives Parkland to Olympia daily in a LEAF and she blasts the heat all the time. Her commute is just over 50 miles RT. She has learned to ignore the GOM. and this is really a minor failing on Nissan's part to not allow multiple ways to determine charge and range. Granted this is all new and Nissan has responded well in addressing various design issues and looks like changes are coming again for 2013 but they are still in danger of hampering the EV movement by "a thousand tiny cuts"

dont really understand your question. are you saying she has a 40 mile commute RT? and is 20 miles from home with one bar? or is it 40 miles one way?

 

[Nubo]

...how many millions of U.S. consumers, who've had effective heaters (barring VW Bugs/Buses) in their cars since the 1920s...

That example doesn't quite prove your point. The VW beetle was one of the all-time automotive success stories. With 21 million built, it was decidedly "mainstream"

The heat did suck though.

 

[downeykp]

She leaves with an 80% charge for her 40 mile commute. She pre-heats at about 4:30pm. When she gets home she has single digits on the GOM and one bar left. The question was how many miles would she still have?

So with one bar remaining and GOM in single digits she is still good for 10-20mi.?


in your case, your wife will be fine. I know someone who drives Parkland to Olympia daily in a LEAF and she blasts the heat all the time. Her commute is just over 50 miles RT. She has learned to ignore the GOM. and this is really a minor failing on Nissan's part to not allow multiple ways to determine charge and range. Granted this is all new and Nissan has responded well in addressing various design issues and looks like changes are coming again for 2013 but they are still in danger of hampering the EV movement by "a thousand tiny cuts"

dont really understand your question. are you saying she has a 40 mile commute RT? and is 20 miles from home with one bar? or is it 40 miles one way?[/quote]

 

[smkettner]

With a 40 RT mile commute I would charge to 100% every day.

And I am in the camp that LEAF needs more range or at least an option for more range. It is hard to juggle different vehicles when the gas burner is out on its own errands. It is also fine to charge as needed to go 150+ miles in a day but I find it hard at times to end my day with a low charge when charging is so slow. Very routine stuff is fine but for lots of us life is constantly throwing curve balls. Don't need 250 miles but a solid 125 at 70 mph would make a world of difference to more people.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

On Wednesday, I was working in Auburn, got off work at 5 PM, made it home at 7:05 PM. that is 37 miles in 2+ hours. Not knowing where your wife works but guessing its less than half of the commute on I-5 which means she will not likely see a traffic jam as bad as the one i saw the other day but I left the exact same place on Friday also at 5 PM and got home at 6:45 but did it on Sunday and got home at 5:50.

but the point of the above is its not mileage, its time on the road as well. that 37 miles the other day can easily be done in the LEAF one way but two hours in winter could easily see 6 Kwh for heating alone. For your situation, i would not hesitate to charge to 100% especially with the level of stress your wife apparently has

 

[jkirkebo]

With a 40 RT mile commute I would charge to 100% every day.

Or use an end timer tweaked to provide 90-95% charge at departure time (if that is the same each day).

All this commute stuff would be much easier if more employers decided to offer charging (at least L1) to any employee that needs it. This is IMHO much more important than public charging at malls etc.

 

[KJD]

She leaves with an 80% charge for her 40 mile commute. She pre-heats at about 4:30pm. When she gets home she has single digits on the GOM and one bar left. The question was how many miles would she still have?

You can look at Tonys range chart and find out how many miles are available.
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=101293#p101293" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

One thing to consider is that deep discharges may be MORE wear on the pack than charging to 100%. If your daily drive takes you down to one bar remaining I would charge to 100% and use the end only timer (no start time).

Do you park in a garage ? Parking inside will lower your need for the climate control and it is much easier to keep the windows clear if the car starts out that way.

 

[adric22]

One thing to consider is that deep discharges may be MORE wear on the pack than charging to 100%. If your daily drive takes you down to one bar remaining I would charge to 100% and use the end only timer (no start time).

I've often wondered about that very thing. I live in a really hot climate with a Leaf pushing 2 years old that still has all 12 capacity bars. The first year (and the hottest Summer) I charged to 100% every day. But my commute is short, around 12 miles per day. I make a lot of little trips too, but the car is recharged between each trip. So it is rare to for me to put more than 20 miles on the car between recharges. For the last year I've been charging to 80%. So I would imagine my commute is very easy on the battery, despite the harsh temperatures.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

One thing to consider is that deep discharges may be MORE wear on the pack than charging to 100%. If your daily drive takes you down to one bar remaining I would charge to 100% and use the end only timer (no start time).

I've often wondered about that very thing. I live in a really hot climate with a Leaf pushing 2 years old that still has all 12 capacity bars. The first year (and the hottest Summer) I charged to 100% every day. But my commute is short, around 12 miles per day. I make a lot of little trips too, but the car is recharged between each trip. So it is rare to for me to put more than 20 miles on the car between recharges. For the last year I've been charging to 80%. So I would imagine my commute is very easy on the battery, despite the harsh temperatures.

there is nothing wrong with charging to "full" as long as you dont leave it at "full" for an extended period of time. add to that; the car does not go to 100%. its a 24 Kwh battery with GIDS that are equal to 80 w/h each. that means 100% is 300 GID. you charge to 281 max. that is 94%.

another thing to consider; it is probably more detrimental to charge to full during Summer than Winter.

Downeykp; I really dont see why we are having this conversation. you have your wife complaining about range when you are discounting 20% of the pack?? you have not even come close to explaining your reasons for this.

Aldric; in your case, i would charge to 80% about every other day! the point is here is not what incremental damage you are doing to your pack is, its being comfortable driving the car. Nissan recommends not charging the car unless SOC is below 80% as a guideline but if i am planning a trip that taxes the range I am going to leave the house with the pack as full as I can get it. the very small amount of degradation that I get from this one time event is not worth the stress of "chancing it"

 

[surfingslovak]

I've often wondered about that very thing. I live in a really hot climate with a Leaf pushing 2 years old that still has all 12 capacity bars.

How many annual miles on the Leaf, about 9,700? I believe you mentioned that the battery is rarely discharged below 3 bars?

 

[downeykp]

Downeykp; I really dont see why we are having this conversation. you have your wife complaining about range when you are discounting 20% of the pack?? you have not even come close to explaining your reasons for this.

Here is where Nissan is missing out on sales targets. As I have stated in the past, I am a lowly Middle School Science teacher with 6 years of college who has been following these discussions daily for two years. I read everything! If my memory serves me right, Nissan and the vast majority of people here are of the opinion that charging above 80% is not good for the battery. As I have also stated, I was foolish and bought this car with cash, (how stupid). My concern comes from the fact that I want this car to last for a long time. I have less than three years to retirement and this would make a great car to use on the "Big Island" with PV system. So Dave, those are the reasons for the 80% charge.
So the question is should I just say f*ck it and charge to 100% or play with end timer stopping at say 90% (which is a crap shoot at best).
This whole conversation is a big reason why Nissan is not selling these cars in the numbers they were hoping for. This is NOT a mainstream car. It is just too limiting for 99% of the public.

 

[Stoaty]

If my memory serves me right, Nissan and the vast majority of people here are of the opinion that charging above 80% is not good for the battery.

That is not exactly correct. What is not good for the battery is charging to 100% and leaving it for a significant length of time fully charged. The problem is the amount of time spent at high SOC, especially if the temperature is high. There is very little evidence that charging to 100% and immediately driving the Leaf to below 80% is bad for the battery. Since you live in the best possible climate for battery longevity, I wouldn't worry about charging to 100% if you are going to start driving within a couple of hours.

 

[downeykp]

Mahalo Stoaty, so set the end timer for an hour before she leaves and we are good to go?

If my memory serves me right, Nissan and the vast majority of people here are of the opinion that charging above 80% is not good for the battery.

That is not exactly correct. What is not good for the battery is charging to 100% and leaving it for a significant length of time fully charged. The problem is the amount of time spent at high SOC, especially if the temperature is high. There is very little evidence that charging to 100% and immediately driving the Leaf to below 80% is bad for the battery. Since you live in the best possible climate for battery longevity, I wouldn't worry about charging to 100% if you are going to start driving within a couple of hours.