Ghosn finally concedes 2012 EV targets will not be met

[SanDust]

Take away the incentives and all massive discounts from Nissan and Chevy and most of the cost effectiveness goes away.

What you describe as "massive discounts" may simply reflect the reduced cost of the battery cells and the electronics.

 

[cwerdna]

No, sales in general are up considerably.

Just a thought, did the entire auto industry suffer diminished sales, as well??

Yep, but it depends on what periods of time we're talking about. eclecticflower, what periods did you have in mind?

 

[DaveEV]

Take away the incentives and all massive discounts from Nissan and Chevy and most of the cost effectiveness goes away.

What you describe as "massive discounts" may simply reflect the reduced cost of the battery cells and the electronics.

Good point - 2 years ago there wasn't massive oversupply in the battery industry.

Today, there is - most manufacturers have overbuilt for current demand. There is massive pressure for manufactures to reduce costs and the discounts we are seeing today could be very likely a result of that.

Heck - Fontana Nissan is selling LEAFs for $7500 under MSRP today. That's your EV tax credit right there - available as an instant rebate. 2 years ago, most of us were happy to negotiate $1000 under MSRP.

Now, my biggest concern is that even at ~$30k before another $10k in rebates (in California), the LEAF still isn't selling all that well. You can buy a LEAF today for $20k after rebates! What's going to happen when those rebates inevitably expire? What's main hangup behind LEAF sales numbers?

In my opinion - the main issues are:

1. Perceived lack of range. People just don't understand that they rarely drive all that far.
2. Lack of choices in body style. Look at how successful Toyota has been in boosting Prius sales with the V and C.

Solutions:

1. Plug-in hybrids - the Volt has been selling well - if it had a bench rear-seat and was just slightly bigger I think it'd easily double it's volume, especially if they could get the price down $5k. PHEV solve the range anxiety issue while getting people familiar with the plug for future EV sales.
2. More range - To reach a critical mass with EVs, you need to have at least 90-100 mile real-world range even after 5 years of use. 30 kWh+ pack instead of 24 kWh, higher efficiency, whatever it takes - but don't forget to offer at least 1 option in battery size - many people will realize that they can save a good deal of money who don't need the range.
3. More conventional looks - The LEAF is just way too funky looking for most people. From certain angles it's worse than the Prius. But at least after 8 years people are used to the Prius now.

 

[x10guy]

Take away the incentives and all massive discounts from Nissan and Chevy and most of the cost effectiveness goes away.

What you describe as "massive discounts" may simply reflect the reduced cost of the battery cells and the electronics.

Many experts believed Nissan was already losing money on each Leaf even before the recent discounts.

 

[x10guy]

Still, they are cost effective for the buyer now. The plan is to get costs down with mass production, as well as coming advancements in battery technology, so that the Leaf can be cost competitive when the incentives expire. Judging by the Prius, it will probably take about 10 years from first sales to see if this pans out.

That actually is true with the Prius. Toyota lost alot of money when the Prius first came out. Now it is not only the top selling hybrid but one of the top selling passenger cars. I am sure GM and Nissan are hoping for the same but the jump from pure ICE to pure EV is bigger than ICE to hybrid.

 

[Train]

1. Perceived lack of range. People just don't understand that they rarely drive all that far.

It's not perceived lack of range. It's actual lack of range.

The sales numbers are not surprising at all. They're only selling a tad better than in July because of the incredible lease deals. Nissan knows that's the only way to get rid of them.

Consider if this car had no state subsidies or federal tax credit. They'd be piling up on shore.

Heck, half the EV enthusiaists wouldn't buy it let alone your average tire kicker if it weren't for subsidies ad tax credits. What does that tell you? It tells you that even EV enthusiasts wouldn't buy it on its own merits without some financial assistance.

It has nothing to do with "EV hate," lack of charging stations, negative comments in online news stories, Rovian plots or price of Jujubes.

It's the product. It's ALWAYS been the product.

Look, the truth hurts. It's a one dimensional commuter car with tepid styling that has low range and loses capacity with every passing day that most dealers consider an albatross on their lot. How some can't understand that is puzzling.

I mean, people are discussing how they wear electric garments during the colder months to stay warm in this car. Seriously? Good climate controls is one of the things that all cars have these days. Well, except for the $37,000 Leaf which has difficulty providing even moderate heat on cold days. And you expect car buyers to put up with that?

This isn't a cell phone that you can toss and buy another for a couple hundred bucks. It's a major investment for most everyone.

Carlos Ghosn is in denial and has been for quite sometime. They have to practically give these cars away to get them off dealer lots.

A combination petrol/electric has always made more sense. They offer the range people expect, convenience people desire, and the practicality that people enjoy.

 

[smkettner]

You can buy a LEAF today for $20k after rebates! .

I paid $25.3k for mine 18 months ago... IMO Nissan would do far better to put that $5k into additional range instead of reducing the price.

 

[derkraut]

1. Perceived lack of range. People just don't understand that they rarely drive all that far.

It's not perceived lack of range. It's actual lack of range.

The sales numbers are not surprising at all. They're only selling a tad better than in July because of the incredible lease deals. Nissan knows that's the only way to get rid of them.

Consider if this car had no state subsidies or federal tax credit. They'd be piling up on shore.

Heck, half the EV enthusiaists wouldn't buy it let alone your average tire kicker if it weren't for subsidies ad tax credits. What does that tell you? It tells you that even EV enthusiasts wouldn't buy it on its own merits without some financial assistance.

It has nothing to do with "EV hate," lack of charging stations, negative comments in online news stories, Rovian plots or price of Jujubes.

It's the product. It's ALWAYS been the product.

Look, the truth hurts. It's a one dimensional commuter car with tepid styling that has low range and loses capacity with every passing day that most dealers consider an albatross on their lot. How some can't understand that is puzzling.

I mean, people are discussing how they wear electric garments during the colder months to stay warm in this car. Seriously? Good climate controls is one of the things that all cars have these days. Well, except for the $37,000 Leaf which has difficulty providing even moderate heat on cold days. And you expect car buyers to put up with that?

This isn't a cell phone that you can toss and buy another for a couple hundred bucks. It's a major investment for most everyone.

Carlos Ghosn is in denial and has been for quite sometime. They have to practically give these cars away to get them off dealer lots.

A combination petrol/electric has always made more sense. They offer the range people expect, convenience people desire, and the practicality that people enjoy.

+1. You've made some very valid points.

 

[Nubo]

Look, the truth hurts.
It's a one dimensional commuter car

mine is three-dimensional

with tepid styling

That's entirely subjective. I quite like the look; I think it's cute and functional.

that has low range

sufficient range

and loses capacity with every passing day

In a real sense, most cars lose "capacity" with every passing day. Very few appreciate in value if they are driven.

that most dealers consider an albatross on their lot.

Our dealer was more than happy to sell us a LEAF and seemed enthusiastic.

How some can't understand that is puzzling.

The car also has distinct advantages. After nearly a year I would not reverse the trade I made.

 

[Stoaty]

Look, the truth hurts. It's a one dimensional commuter car with tepid styling that has low range and loses capacity with every passing day that most dealers consider an albatross on their lot. How some can't understand that is puzzling.

Hopefully Nissan is taking the long view like Toyota did with the Prius and not listening to this sort of crap. Remember that this is Generation One. Give it time.

 

[surfingslovak]

Look, the truth hurts. It's a one dimensional commuter car with tepid styling that has low range and loses capacity with every passing day that most dealers consider an albatross on their lot. How some can't understand that is puzzling.

Hopefully Nissan is taking the long view like Toyota did with the Prius and not listening to this sort of crap. Remember that this is Generation One. Give it time.

They have to, they are all in. For that I give them kudos. Let's see how quickly they will figure out the headwinds they are facing.

 

[x10guy]

It's not perceived lack of range. It's actual lack of range....

The sales numbers are not surprising at all. They're only selling a tad better than in July because of the incredible lease deals. Nissan knows that's the only way to get rid of them.

Consider if this car had no state subsidies or federal tax credit. They'd be piling up on shore...

It has nothing to do with "EV hate," lack of charging stations, negative comments in online news stories, Rovian plots or price of Jujubes.

It's the product. It's ALWAYS been the product.

Well said!

 

[timhebb]

It's a one dimensional commuter car with tepid styling...

You make a number of provocative and pointed observations, but this is not one of them.

Many Americans without a global design perspective share your point of view, but it derives from a distinctly narrow exposure to design and aesthetics. Your remark betrays an aesthetic sense nurtured solely on American product design, which in fact is itself notoriously one-dimensional, riskless and bland.

The response to the Leaf by sophisticated design professionals, europeans and others with international exposure and viewpoints tends to be acutely different from yours. They frequently laud the Leaf's styling and are emotionally taken with it.

In the end, it's a matter of taste, but taste develops and improves by repeated exposure to broader horizons and perspectives, not by a lifetime of containment to an inbred, provincial aesthetic.

 

[timhebb]

A combination petrol/electric has always made more sense.

Not for me, and I daresay for many others on this forum who live in temperate climates that rarely get too hot or too cold.

I'd feel compromised by driving a vehicle that still burns "petrol" as you call it, and more than a little dirty. The range is pretty much what I expected, and commensurate with what I need. I figured that out before I committed to the Leaf. So, it is an eminently practical car for me.

Therefore, I'd appreciate your resisting the temptation to presume to speak for me; I'm quite capable of doing that myself. You'd do well to limit your remarks to your own experience with and impressions of the Leaf. If it doesn't work for you, you're welcome to let us know. But I reserve the right to decide if it works for me - and it does.

 

[Volusiano]

It's the product. It's ALWAYS been the product.

It's not the product, it's the price. It's always been the price. What has to happen is that the gas savings one can achieve monthly is close enough to the monthly lease cost such that the gas savings pays for the car itself, then the math will start working out and it becomes a no-brainer.

For this to happen, gas prices have to be high enough and be on the rise. And leases have to be cheap enough.

The earlier is already happening.

The later is starting to happen, even if this is because Nissan has to offer a fire sale because of lack-luster sales. Nissan may be losing money on their dirt cheap lease deals right now, but what they're banking on is that by the time the lease deals are up, the battery cost will have come down enough that they can refurbish the returned leased cars with new batteries and resell them to start making a profit.

What remains to be seen is whether Nissan can get the battery cost down fast enough or not.

 

[gsleaf]

It's not the product, it's the price. It's always been the price. What has to happen is that the gas savings one can achieve monthly is close enough to the monthly lease cost such that the gas savings pays for the car itself, then the math will start working out and it becomes a no-brainer.

I'm not sure that's entirely true. The product in many cases affects the value. With the Leaf I think they are going to have a very hard time selling too many unless they either fix the battery degradation issue or reveal that the batteries are cheap enough that it doesn't matter if you have to replace them every 5-7 years.

 

[jkirkebo]

I agree they really need to offer a larger battery size. Around 36kWh would be perfect. Not only would your range be 50% longer, CHAdeMO fast charging would also be faster (more miles per minute) and the battery would either be stressed less under acceleration or you could put in a 120kW motor and gain performance.

Look at Tesla with the Model S. 3 battery options, and of those who have finalizes they orders, 66% chose the largest pack. 27% went for the middle pack and only 7% went for the small pack (which still is much larger than the Leaf pack at 40kWh). Range sells.

After driving the Leaf for a year I couldn't stand driving the VW TDI anytime I needed more range than the Leaf offered, so I ordered a Model S myself (we will keep the Leaf and only have EVs).

 

[RegGuheert]

It's not perceived lack of range. It's actual lack of range.

It's the product. It's ALWAYS been the product.

Truly, I do not think the product is the issue. Sure, I hate the spray-on "carpeting" and the unfathomable climate control system as much as the next person, but I don't think the range or the battery is the issue.

What IS an issue, IMO, is that Nissan INSISTED that this car was a perfect fit for everyone with a commute under about 80 miles, regardless of any other considerations. Their marketing for this car was so far off the mark that they sold the car to many people who should NOT have bought it and they failed to sell the car to many people who should have bought it. But, unfortunately, this is how cars are sold today: say and do anything to get people to sign on the dotted line. That may be fine for a typical gas-burner, but when you are trying to grow a market for a vehicle which has REAL limitations, then it is suicide.

In order to succeed, you MUST carefully qualify all early buyers (during the first few years) and discourage those who would end up being disappointed with the product. I think this may have been the original intention of the LEAF website, but it missed the mark. Nissan seemed to think the only real barrier to EV adoption was the lack of charging stations in people's homes. In reality, that issue is minor compared with other considerations such as true understanding of what the car can and cannot do.

But what is beyond comprehension to me is that Nissan, after the sale, has taken a hard line stance with their early adopters who have decided the car is not a good fit for them. This is true even in Phoenix where Nissan's representations of the product were inaccurate, at best. It would be one thing if Nissan had been very careful and detailed in their characterizations of the capabilities of the LEAF, but to take the hard line after pushing it into areas and applications where it is NOT a fit is simply foolish.

Nissan would have done well to have taken the advice GRA offers in his signature: "When nurturing a new technology, under-promise and over-deliver rather than the opposite." GM has taken this approach with the Volt even though it is closer to the currently-available products than is the LEAF. Their approach is paying off right now.

Unfortunately, management at many large companies, including Nissan, does not seem to think this type of marketing works. IME they are wrong. Customers embrace the idea that the manufacturer is working WITH them to ensure that the product is a good fit for their needs. Caveat emptor has no place in the nascent EV market.

 

[cwerdna]

I do think range is an issue. Some people aren't willing to pay the price for the range limitations of the Leaf when ICEVs don't have them.

For me, I think I've stated this here a few times before, if the Leaf had a 150-160 mile range per the EPA, I'd have one now. I'm not working right now, but could conceivably work some place pretty far as I'm far from everything (no, I'm not planning to move, long story). So, a 150-160 mile range rating would give me enough range to make it to/from a workplace that I'd be willing to commute to, but also taking into account freeway travel (most likely, my commute would be a lot of freeway), HVAC usage and battery degradation. And no, I don't want to limit where I could work just because of a car, or be forced to take a loss by selling it if it won't work for me.

If I want to go to SF and back w/the Leaf (120 miles roundtrip, and I'd likely be doing driving around there too), I can't make it w/o charging somewhere. It's hard enough to find parking in much SF, let alone a place to charge and park. There previously was no QC between home and SF. There are two now, but they could be down/too costly (well, one's still free, AFAIK).

Yes, it is puzzling why Nissan even made it available for sale in AZ, TX and other hot climates, given their handling of the situation. But, I doubt this is hurting sales much. Sales weren't all that high before this hot climate degradation fiasco.

 

[RegGuheert]

I do think range is an issue. Some people aren't willing to pay the price for the range limitations of the LEAF when ICEVs don't have them.

Sure, like ALL vehicles, the LEAF has limitations that make it not suitable for many customers. There is a reason we have four differnt vehicles. None of them can do everything that one or more of the others can. More range in an EV costs more money, just like driving farther in an ICEV costs more money. It's only an issue if people discover (or the vehicle develops) range issues AFTER they purchase the car. As long as there is a clear understanding up front AND the value proposition works for the customer, then there is no issue. The market will eventually provide a wide variety of EVs sorted by range and price point.

Yes, it is puzzling why Nissan even made it available for sale in AZ, TX and other hot climates, given their handling of the situation. But, I doubt this is hurting sales much. Sales weren't all that high before this hot climate degradation fiasco.

It is hurting sales, as evidenced by this post in the Post your Leaf encounter with people about car itself thread:

Most people come up to me and ask if my car is also suffering from premature battery capacity loss..No one ever ask me about the car from all the bad news coverages, but after the big article in the AZ Republic ran,a lot of people ask me about the battery problems..

How much it is hurting sales is hard to say. I don't think this issue only affects sales in the hot climates since the word is getting out that Nissan is not standing behind their EV offering (whether or not that is a fair assessment).