Ghosn finally concedes 2012 EV targets will not be met

[DaveinOlyWA]

the software was fixed which is why i am out of a job!! actually we went from NT to Win XP professional which greatly reduced the IT role at my company and took us from a 7 man group that had a lot to do to 2 men that spend most of their times wandering around BS'ing

 

[Stoaty]

Sigh... i'm in computer tech support. After dealing with a person who wanted to have barcodes recognized but printed white barcodes on white paper i'm afraid nothing actually surprises me. Disappoints, frustrates, but not surprised.

I'm surprised you find this to be a problem. Almost every piece of white paper I see has white barcodes printed on it. Are you perhaps colorblind? :lol:

 

[GRA]

Re what is or isn't mainstream: EVs aren't. While the exact point at which a technology becomes mainstream is debatable, to me 25% or more of the market is definitely mainstream, anything under 10% definitely isn't (EVs running something like 0.4% in the U.S. at the moment), and we can argue about the interval - IIRR Vaclav Smil considers 15% to be mainstream.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Re what is or isn't mainstream: EVs aren't. While the exact point at which a technology becomes mainstream is debatable, to me 25% or more of the market is definitely mainstream, anything under 10% definitely isn't (EVs running something like 0.4% in the U.S. at the moment), and we can argue about the interval - IIRR Vaclav Smil considers 15% to be mainstream.

well we can take current car sales stats and pinch em, twist em and crumple them a bit and say that trucks are mainstream if we dont segment them into the various models, sizes, etc.

other than that. no car or type of car reaches 25%

any car that had 10% of the market would be considered wildly successful so how about 1% now we into the "Prius" category which is considered successful in many people's book. Now that the Prius has segmented into its own little "mini brand" they might even go hog wild and get 2-3% which would be 450,000 cars of the estimated 15 million we will buy next year

 

[Nekota]

1. Perceived lack of range. People just don't understand that they rarely drive all that far.

It's not perceived lack of range. It's actual lack of range.

The sales numbers are not surprising at all. They're only selling a tad better than in July because of the incredible lease deals. Nissan knows that's the only way to get rid of them.

Consider if this car had no state subsidies or federal tax credit. They'd be piling up on shore.

Heck, half the EV enthusiaists wouldn't buy it let alone your average tire kicker if it weren't for subsidies ad tax credits. What does that tell you? It tells you that even EV enthusiasts wouldn't buy it on its own merits without some financial assistance.

It has nothing to do with "EV hate," lack of charging stations, negative comments in online news stories, Rovian plots or price of Jujubes.

It's the product. It's ALWAYS been the product.

Look, the truth hurts. It's a one dimensional commuter car with tepid styling that has low range and loses capacity with every passing day that most dealers consider an albatross on their lot. How some can't understand that is puzzling.

I mean, people are discussing how they wear electric garments during the colder months to stay warm in this car. Seriously? Good climate controls is one of the things that all cars have these days. Well, except for the $37,000 Leaf which has difficulty providing even moderate heat on cold days. And you expect car buyers to put up with that?

This isn't a cell phone that you can toss and buy another for a couple hundred bucks. It's a major investment for most everyone.

Carlos Ghosn is in denial and has been for quite sometime. They have to practically give these cars away to get them off dealer lots.

A combination petrol/electric has always made more sense. They offer the range people expect, convenience people desire, and the practicality that people enjoy.

I was just commenting to my family that I'm very pleased with the LEAF after the past 18 months. We also have a Nissan Altima and both cars have exceeded our expectations for quality and reliability. It's range is fine for what I do, I have had no problems with the car, it's always been charged when I expected, everything has worked just fine. But then I have always wanted an electric car to diversify our energy base. Inexpensive energy is the key ingredient in a manufacturing economy and many of our failings as a country lie in the over dependence on foreign oil. I hope the natural gas availability will stimulate our manufacturing base.

It takes time to make changes and recognize what the limits of any vehicle are. It's too bad so many want to spit and criticize good engineering and quality products because it doesn't match their 'perceived needs'. A 70 mile range vehicle is great solution for trips up to 70 miles. If you need to go further it won't work for you but that doesn't make it a bad product, but a bad choice.

When I get in a gas car it's cold too and eventually warms up. The LEAF can be warm before I get into it without using any battery power and it stays comfortable for the next half hour. It's also a good idea to carry warm clothing in any vehicle in case of failure. While you have some valid facts, your overall language is simply denigrating. Can you get over it?

 

[GRA]

Re what is or isn't mainstream: EVs aren't. While the exact point at which a technology becomes mainstream is debatable, to me 25% or more of the market is definitely mainstream, anything under 10% definitely isn't (EVs running something like 0.4% in the U.S. at the moment), and we can argue about the interval - IIRR Vaclav Smil considers 15% to be mainstream.

well we can take current car sales stats and pinch em, twist em and crumple them a bit and say that trucks are mainstream if we dont segment them into the various models, sizes, etc.

other than that. no car or type of car reaches 25%

any car that had 10% of the market would be considered wildly successful so how about 1% now we into the "Prius" category which is considered successful in many people's book. Now that the Prius has segmented into its own little "mini brand" they might even go hog wild and get 2-3% which would be 450,000 cars of the estimated 15 million we will buy next year

I'm not talking about specific models, I'm talking about the (propulsion) technology they use. Gas Otto-cycle ICEs are mainstream. (Auto) diesels are mainstream in Europe, not here. Rotaries aren't mainstream, Atkinson cycles aren't mainstream. Hybrids have yet to reach mainstream status in any country or even any state possibly excepting California, although the Prius family plus other HEVs may have pushed us over the 10% mark recently. And PEVs are barely a blip, although starting to ramp up with less expensive PHEVs now becoming available.

Here's what wiki has to say:

"Considering hybrid sales between January 2010 through September 2011, the top selling metropolitan region was the San Francisco Bay Area, with 8.4% of all new cars sold during that period, followed by Monterey-Salinas with 6.9%, and Eugene, Oregon, with 6.1%. The following seven top selling markets are also on the West Coast, including Seattle-Tacoma and Los Angeles with 5.7%, San Diego with 5.6%, and Portland with 5.4%. The Washington D.C. Metro Area, with 4.2%, is the next best selling region out of the West Coast.[118]"

So, although I live in the metropolitan area with the highest % of hybrid sales in the country, at least as of last year we still hadn't cracked the 10% mark, although we may be over it now.

See

http://www.environmentalleader.com/2012/11/02/california-florida-washington-have-highest-hybrid-ev-sales/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Train]

It takes time to make changes and recognize what the limits of any vehicle are. It's too bad so many want to spit and criticize good engineering and quality products because it doesn't match their 'perceived needs'. A 70 mile range vehicle is great solution for trips up to 70 miles. If you need to go further it won't work for you but that doesn't make it a bad product, but a bad choice.

Again, those needs aren't perceived. They're real. The Leaf's shortcomings aren't perceived. They're real. They are shortcomings that become dealbreakers and the person buys a Versa or an Altima instead. The discussion is about why sales targets aren't met. A consumer discovering that they have to drive their EV 10 miles under the speed limit and stop being comfortable by turning off the heat just to get home isn't just mildly inconvenient and irritating. That person tells everyone and anyone how ridiculous it was that they had to freeze while driving home because they were afraid they would be stranded. I can see why many wives would find this annoying and downright asinine.

And I don't think anyone is saying it's a bad product. But it's a product of limited desirability. The whole point is selling something people want and selling enough of them to make money. [/quote]

While you have some valid facts, your overall language is simply denigrating. Can you get over it?

I don't agree I'm denigrating but if that's your perception, that's OK. You're entitled to your opinion.

 

[KJD]

It takes time to make changes and recognize what the limits of any vehicle are. It's too bad so many want to spit and criticize good engineering and quality products because it doesn't match their 'perceived needs'. A 70 mile range vehicle is great solution for trips up to 70 miles. If you need to go further it won't work for you but that doesn't make it a bad product, but a bad choice.

Again, those needs aren't perceived. They're real. The Leaf's shortcomings aren't perceived. They're real. They are shortcomings that become dealbreakers and the person buys a Versa or an Altima instead. The discussion is about why sales targets aren't met. A consumer discovering that they have to drive their EV 10 miles under the speed limit and stop being comfortable by turning off the heat just to get home isn't just mildly inconvenient and irritating. That person tells everyone and anyone how ridiculous it was that they had to freeze while driving home because they were afraid they would be stranded. I can see why many wives would find this annoying and downright asinine.

And I don't think anyone is saying it's a bad product. But it's a product of limited desirability. The whole point is selling something people want and selling enough of them to make money.

Train, have you ever owned a LEAF ?

If you had ever spent any time in the LEAF you would know what a great car it really is. Every vehicle has strengths and weaknesses, same with the LEAF. The range on my LEAF is more than enough for my daily driving. I keep the climate control set at 72 year round, not a problem.

The biggest reason that the LEAF is not selling well is most people are scared to death to try anything new or different. The LEAF is both of those and a big THANK YOU to Nissan for doing it. Those of us who embrace new things are often very happy with the LEAF and other EV's.

The 2nd biggest reason that LEAF sales are poor is that there are 1000 gas pumps for every EV charge station in existence. As long as we taxpayers subsidize big oil this will NOT change. Take away all the oil industry tax breaks and EV's will compete on merits alone.

You think you need a 250 mile range, then go buy a Tesla. Not a problem you just gotta spend around 80k to get one. The 30k LEAF has a shorter range. There is a reason for that.

 

[Stoaty]

Train, have you ever owned a LEAF ?

If you had ever spent any time in the LEAF you would know what a great car it really is. Every vehicle has strengths and weaknesses, same with the LEAF. The range on my LEAF is more than enough for my daily driving. I keep the climate control set at 72 year round, not a problem.

I don't think he has owned a Leaf, which makes his input not very useful. The Leaf is a great car for the right application; it fits my needs almost perfectly.

 

[GRA]

Train, have you ever owned a LEAF ?

If you had ever spent any time in the LEAF you would know what a great car it really is. Every vehicle has strengths and weaknesses, same with the LEAF. The range on my LEAF is more than enough for my daily driving. I keep the climate control set at 72 year round, not a problem.

I don't think he has owned a Leaf, which makes his input not very useful. The Leaf is a great car for the right application; it fits my needs almost perfectly.

Train's not saying that it doesn't fit some people's needs, he's saying that it doesn't fit a mainstream user's needs, and he's right. Mainstream users aren't going to put up with the limitations he's mentioned, when they can buy a car for far less that doesn't include any of them. Mainstream consumers won't accept that they have to conform their driving behavior, use of HVAC etc. to the car just to get where they need to go - they expect the car to conform to _their_ needs, and it should.

Until affordable BEVs have enough range that a much greater percentage of people can use them as daily commuters (including an allowance for spur of the moment errands/emergencies) in _any_ climate with no limits on driving technique, climate control or other accessory use and no need to charge except at home, they will remain niche products. The Tesla S (60 and 85kWh) has enough range to provide mainstream usefulness as daily drivers for almost anyone (other than traveling salespeople) now, albeit at a price that is anything but mainstream. The 40kWh version will still be limited by range as a daily driver in some climates/driving behaviors/as the battery ages, at a probable 120-140 mile EPA 5-cycle range when new, so I expect an affordable battery of 50-60kWh is what it will take for BEVs to reach the mainstream, barring huge and unlikely increases in efficiency. Always assuming that U.S. gas prices don't spike to $8-$10 in the next few years, anyway.

 

[adric22]

Most disruptive technologies have disadvantages. Almost any time a new product comes out there are pros and cons. I would tend to agree that for probably 50% to 75% or more of the population the range issue is a perceived and not real. I can remember so many people saying they would never buy a DVD player unless it could record their shows off of TV. That was a big issue back in the late 1990's and many people refused to buy them for this one reason. Yet, I would often ask people how often they actually recorded something off of TV and most couldn't remember the last time. An the big proof came when years later they actually came out with DVD-Recorders and they didn't sell all that well. It turns out the need for recording wasn't as important as people said it was. In the end, people had to switch to DVD because it got to the point they couldn't buy the movies they wanted on VHS anymore.

I wonder when we'll reach that point that the last hold-outs of the electric car have no choice but to buy an electric because they can't get gasoline anymore? Of course, I'm sure gasoline will always be available to those with collector cars, etc. But it will be expensive.

 

[GRA]

Most disruptive technologies have disadvantages. Almost any time a new product comes out there are pros and cons. I would tend to agree that for probably 50% to 75% or more of the population the range issue is a perceived and not real. I can remember so many people saying they would never buy a DVD player unless it could record their shows off of TV. That was a big issue back in the late 1990's and many people refused to buy them for this one reason. Yet, I would often ask people how often they actually recorded something off of TV and most couldn't remember the last time. An the big proof came when years later they actually came out with DVD-Recorders and they didn't sell all that well. It turns out the need for recording wasn't as important as people said it was. In the end, people had to switch to DVD because it got to the point they couldn't buy the movies they wanted on VHS anymore.

Dan Neil (WSJ), in a recent review of the latest Range Rover, used a term that exactly defines the problem: "Contingency anxiety". See http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324439804578105270554653446.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm cynical enough to believe that the mass of humanity isn't going to become more rational any time soon, so rather than trying to change the consumer to fit the car, I think it's far more effective to improve the car to fit the consumer.

 

[Train]

Train's not saying that it doesn't fit some people's needs, he's saying that it doesn't fit a mainstream user's needs, and he's right. Mainstream users aren't going to put up with the limitations he's mentioned, when they can buy a car for far less that doesn't include any of them. Mainstream consumers won't accept that they have to conform their driving behavior, use of HVAC etc. to the car just to get where they need to go - they expect the car to conform to _their_ needs, and it should.

Thank you, GRA.

Some here are taking comments about this particular topic personally and because they own or lease a Leaf they get resentful. Maybe it's to justify their purchase. Whatever.

Train, have you ever owned a LEAF ?

Owning a Leaf isn't a requirement for commenting on a Leaf. I've driven a Leaf but I don't own one. The ONLY way I'd drive a Leaf long term is to lease one.

The biggest reason that the LEAF is not selling well is most people are scared to death to try anything new or different. The LEAF is both of those and a big THANK YOU to Nissan for doing it. Those of us who embrace new things are often very happy with the LEAF and other EV's.

I completely disagree and I've explained why. But I'm glad you're happy with the Leaf.

The 2nd biggest reason that LEAF sales are poor is that there are 1000 gas pumps for every EV charge station in existence. As long as we taxpayers subsidize big oil this will NOT change. Take away all the oil industry tax breaks and EV's will compete on merits alone.

How many here would have bought the Leaf in 2011 at $36,000, plus tax, plusfreight, plus another $2000 for the 220 installation of a charge port in the garage without a dime of incentives? Some would. Many would not.

You think you need a 250 mile range, then go buy a Tesla. Not a problem you just gotta spend around 80k to get one. The 30k LEAF has a shorter range. There is a reason for that.

I have all the range I need in the current vehicle I drive. And can renew that range to full in less than five minutes. That range will be the same five years from now. Not 20% less or possibly even more.

I'm also well aware of the prices of the variously configured Tesla model S and the range of both the Leaf and Model S. But that bolsters my argument even further. Again, it doesn't matter how many charge stations you have out there, if they take a half hour to charge, it's not going to be a successful model.

People's time is more valuable than that.

If you've read what I have stated here for 2 years now, it's a car that meets the needs of some. But obviously it doesn't meet the need of most or they would be selling considerably more. Perhaps in 20 years that will change as technology changes.

I will also mention that all those Tesla reservations are just that. Reservations. That doesn't mean they will all end up buying the car. Even though the deposit may be $5000, it's still refundable. Many will not end up buying the car for many reasons; won't get the financing or money required to purchase the vehicle, they may lose their job, buy a house, or may simply get cold feet realizing that spending $55,00-$100,000 on this car may not be a wise financial decision at this time.

 

[cwerdna]

FWIW, Car and Driver has this opinion piece re: Leaf sales...

Nissan Leaf Way Off Sales Target, CEO Says—The Problem Is Worse than It Seems:
http://blog.caranddriver.com/nissan-leaf-way-off-sales-target-ceo-says%E2%80%94the-problem-is-worse-than-it-seems/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i dont think anyohe has provided a valid reason to dispute the "fear of the unknown" factor.

now, this fear is multi-faceted. besides the EV technology, there is the battery issues; the price, the longevity but also the "perception of need"

people think they need more driving range than they really do. In my talks with people, they would say I work at X, live in Y which is about 40-45 miles RT, but then they would say they drive an average of 65-70 miles a day. Most would say that when I stated I did not recommend they get the LEAF unless they averaged 50-55 miles or less.

what they are doing is dreaming back to times where they had to drive that much due to errands they had to run. IOW, a very uncommon thing. I also pointed out that the LEAF was an ideal vehicle especially when its range was within BOTH commuters normal drive. This allowed switching of cars when one person's schedule requires side trips that might tax the range of the LEAF.

Now in my area, there is a bit of a dangerous trend that is emerging and that is heavy reliance on public charging. one person stated that EVs would do better if there was as many charging stations as gas stations? well in this area, i would venture to say its a near 50/50 mix if L2's are considered but what we gain in numbers of stations we lose in location.

there are an over abundance in some areas and a complete lack of coverage in other areas. with a lot of personal experience managing public charging against my transportation need, I find that L2's can not be rated equally due to long charge times and poor locations. Downtown Olympia is a prime example of stations located in areas not prime for long term parking unless perhaps you work for the state in a nearby building. considering the hourly parking fees associated with these stations, its not convenient.

The largest shopping mall in Thurston County does not have a charging station. One of the smaller ones (which is still 3-4 blocks long) only has charging stations on one end. if that is how it should be, it should have been placed in the middle but it is Sears that put them in and Sears is at the end of the mall.

but all these things add up to some inconveniences that are aggravated by the weather. I have no issues using those charging stations in Summer. in fact, i LOVE using them. its great to get out and walk when the weather is that nice with my Son. But that scenario is only available 3-5 months a year.

what really surprised me when i manned the Tacoma EVA booth at the Puyallup Fair was how familiar people were with "Charging stations" who had no clue about the cars that used them. They are really that common around here. Too many people stated that they would not mind charging a bit if they needed to make it home on their "daily" commute. i think they might be ok with it once in a while but doing it daily especially during the rainy season i think they are "dreaming" again.

so the "fear" is still a big factor. another telling statistic is owner satisfaction; the LEAF ranks very high in owner satisfaction and "would you buy it again?" question. when that AND poor sales happen. it generally two reasons; fear of the unknown and price.

hopefully Nissan will address both when the "cheaper to make" US born LEAF hits the streets

 

[thankyouOB]

FWIW, Car and Driver has this opinion piece re: Leaf sales...

Nissan Leaf Way Off Sales Target, CEO Says—The Problem Is Worse than It Seems:
http://blog.caranddriver.com/nissan-leaf-way-off-sales-target-ceo-says%E2%80%94the-problem-is-worse-than-it-seems/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

lottsa wild speculation in this thought-free article, in my view. yes the sun rises daily.
also the chart could use a legend--blue and red means what?

 

[thankyouOB]

and, we had visitors from argentina here yesterday. the one thing they wanted to do the first day was ride in the ALL electric car.

 

[Nubo]

... I'm also well aware of the prices of the variously configured Tesla model S and the range of both the Leaf and Model S. But that bolsters my argument even further. Again, it doesn't matter how many charge stations you have out there, if they take a half hour to charge, it's not going to be a successful model.

People's time is more valuable than that. ...

In my experience, the convenience (and time factor) runs the other direction. I always found that having to divert to get gasoline, was a total drag. Not only due to cost, but my time. And somehow I always seemed to need gas when I was running late or already in a hurry for some other reason. Walking out to a vehicle that's always fully ready for my day is a great convenience. For me, taking a few seconds to plug and unplug is far preferable to the typical experience of gassing up.

Of course, this assumes that at-home charging covers most of your range needs. It does for me. Not sure whether or not that disqualifies me from being "mainstream", however I'm pretty sure that my situation is not at all unusual.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

FWIW, Car and Driver has this opinion piece re: Leaf sales...

Nissan Leaf Way Off Sales Target, CEO Says—The Problem Is Worse than It Seems:
http://blog.caranddriver.com/nissan-leaf-way-off-sales-target-ceo-says%E2%80%94the-problem-is-worse-than-it-seems/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

lottsa wild speculation in this thought-free article, in my view. yes the sun rises daily.
also the chart could use a legend--blue and red means what?

red is gas prices and the author is correct in that the fluctuating gas prices (most of which happen for no reason or very pathetic reasons) do condition us to paying higher prices AND thinking we are getting a good deal which then encourages us to go out and buy that 18 mpg truck.

there is an investigation being launched here to investigate why WA was paying the highest gas price in the nation earlier last winter and spring when it has now come to light that the reserve levels were ABOVE average. When we were paying $4+ a gallon, the excuse was the refinery fire in Anacortes but now it appears that shortages had nothing to do with the price increase.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

In my experience, the convenience (and time factor) runs the other direction. I always found that having to divert to get gasoline, was a total drag. Not only due to cost, but my time. And somehow I always seemed to need gas when I was running late or already in a hurry for some other reason. Walking out to a vehicle that's always fully ready for my day is a great convenience. For me, taking a few seconds to plug and unplug is far preferable to the typical experience of gassing up.

Of course, this assumes that at-home charging covers most of your range needs. It does for me. Not sure whether or not that disqualifies me from being "mainstream", however I'm pretty sure that my situation is not at all unusual.

have to agree. getting gas for the Prius has become a logistical hassle. SO took Prius to work this morning but it will be on blinking bar when she gets home. so wont need it again till tues so have to get gas for it sometime this weekend and not looking forward to it.

as far as "mainstream" I have to say, i must be a rebel because i dont want any part of Mainstream America

http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com/2012/11/mainstreaming.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;