Gasoline May Rise Above $5 a Gallon

You don't see any flaws in your reasoning?

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Nope - worked for an oil company 25 years!

As expected, my comment has fueled the synapses of the brain creating a football game with no rule book and at least brought up some thoughts to comment on.

Europe does have high gas taxes that do not necessarily fund the roads but do greatly benefit society. it is the best option? probably not. a middle ground might be better but the fact is, if you burn gas, you will pay for the privilege so in that sense, they have it right.

Europe's economy is in a mess. So is ours. we only have a MUCH larger printing press to generate more cash. that is our ONLY advantage over them.

A large rise in gasoline prices here will change transportation dramatically and for the better, but it will cause a lot of pain. but things that wont happen..

the poorer people will not quit their jobs because they decided the cost of gas made it "not worth their time to punch a clock" They will simply find another way. I worked in a place that employed over 1000 people and most only made a few bucks over minimum wage (a call center) when prices shot up, there was no increase in absenteeism. But the ride share board exploded. the bike rack overflowed. etc. They simply found another way

2) the trucking industry will pass on the cost of higher fuel prices as well but at the same time, the percentage of the transportation by truck will drop. Electrified rail currently has a 2-3 decade adoption timeline, most due to cost, lobbyists, and politics. Sure rails are electric with a huge thirst for diesel. But hybrid options are currently possible using renewable options that are currently underutilized due to remote locations, distance from the grid, etc. but if following the rail, they have the advantage in that

1) Railroads already have the right of way. there is already access to even the remotest of the areas and in most areas, there is no one to complain about the sight of solar panels or the irritating sound of wind generators.

This is something that can be built in a few years by simply removing regulations that currently slow that option down. The addition of long term federal gas taxes GUARANTEES that any money invested into a nationwide electrified rail would be a good one, which means a decade of fund raising would be reduced to a few months.

Right now the biggest holdup to over running this country with renewable sources of energy is

1) regulations and backbiting between the multitudes of public utilities. This is complicated by 100% government funded programs that generate power and where that power should be going to. I live in an area that used to greatly benefit from that program but now we only slightly benefit from that program...

2) getting power from the remote areas to the large metro areas that need the power. but what is made of metal, conducts electricity well and generally runs by every large metro area in the country?

3) finally the biggest hurdle to all this and quite frankly the biggest hurdle to nearly every problem we face and that is how to stop the flow of cash from the many to the few. it is this problem that is a factor in nearly everything we face today. Health care, working family wages, affordable and EFFICIENT transportation, a safe infrastructure, affordable education, etc.

Oil is the biggest channeler of cash in the history of mankind. it has trumped gold, fertile farmland, deep channel ports, navigable rivers, or hilltop real estate and done so by a huge huge HUGE margin.

So how is this electrified rail going to disburse the wealth? what is to stop a handful of oil rich investors from swooping in the control this option as well??

well, nothing of course, except for the fact that there is one big difference between oil and electricity. Oil requires hundreds of millions of dollars in equipment, infrastructure and cash to create their cheapest single gallon of gasoline. that statement should be enough to understand electricity's advantage.

electricfuture said:

You don't see any flaws in your reasoning?

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Nope - worked for an oil company 25 years!

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your statement makes everything perfectly clear!

but seriously, you have been brainwashed...

economics 101 states that (per your statements) that if a better option comes along in conjunction with a price rise on the previous option, people will elect the better option which means gasoline sales will continue to drop. the only way they will go back up is if profits are cut when prices drop

DaveinOlyWA said:

Europe's economy is in a mess. So is ours. we only have a MUCH larger printing press to generate more cash. that is our ONLY advantage over them.

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The world's economy is in a mess overall, no doubt. But Europe's not the place to look-down upon - Germany still has the world's strongest economy on the planet per capita - they weren't drawn as deeply into the recession and have been doing better than the rest of us on the recovery. Oddly enough, they have some significant gasoline and diesel prices, but are also in the lead transitioning themselves away from fossil fuel use. Their work to transition through the Third Industrial Revolution is key, it appears.

AndyH said:

DaveinOlyWA said:

Europe's economy is in a mess. So is ours. we only have a MUCH larger printing press to generate more cash. that is our ONLY advantage over them.

Click to expand...

The world's economy is in a mess overall, no doubt. But Europe's not the place to look-down upon - Germany still has the world's strongest economy on the planet per capita - they weren't drawn as deeply into the recession and have been doing better than the rest of us on the recovery. Oddly enough, they have some significant gasoline and diesel prices, but are also in the lead transitioning themselves away from fossil fuel use. Their work to transition through the Third Industrial Revolution is key, it appears.

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Yes, Germany has done well but not without significant pain. My Nephew met several Germans who have maintained a relationship with him which includes annual visits to WA. There has been growing pains in the continuing conversions to wind and solar that we would have a hard time accepting. But they are thru the worst of it and I do envy them for the position they are in now

DaveinOlyWA said:

AndyH said:

DaveinOlyWA said:

Europe's economy is in a mess. So is ours. we only have a MUCH larger printing press to generate more cash. that is our ONLY advantage over them.

Click to expand...

The world's economy is in a mess overall, no doubt. But Europe's not the place to look-down upon - Germany still has the world's strongest economy on the planet per capita - they weren't drawn as deeply into the recession and have been doing better than the rest of us on the recovery. Oddly enough, they have some significant gasoline and diesel prices, but are also in the lead transitioning themselves away from fossil fuel use. Their work to transition through the Third Industrial Revolution is key, it appears.

Click to expand...

Yes, Germany has done well but not without significant pain. My Nephew met several Germans who have maintained a relationship with him which includes annual visits to WA. There has been growing pains in the continuing conversions to wind and solar that we would have a hard time accepting. But they are thru the worst of it and I do envy them for the position they are in now

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Thanks for the anecdote and I'm not surprised - revolutions tend to be dramatic from time to time. I really wish we had to courage to follow Germany through this transition.

Thanks for the detour.

DaveinOlyWA said:

...Europe's economy is in a mess. So is ours. we only have a MUCH larger printing press to generate more cash. that is our ONLY advantage over them...

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A bit off-topic, but your colorful assertion is a gross oversimplification that is not an accurate representation of what is really going on. Europe has been pursuing economic policies that are based on austerity — led by the Germans, the largest economy — which is precisely what one does not want to do during a recession and recovery (the time for austerity is during rapid economic growth). The USA approach has been mixed: fiscal policy to stimulate the economy has been stymied by gridlock in Congress. But monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has been able to compensate somewhat and the economy has been growing for more than four years. The European Central Bank has begun to relent and loosen monetary policy, albeit many years too late to prevent a double, and possibly triple, dip recession there. You are correct in that the complexity of the Eurozone makes monetary policy more difficult to implement there than it is here. And the fiscal policy situation — being so fragmented — is even worse.

Ok, back to gas and oil prices and transportation policy...

dgpcolorado said:

DaveinOlyWA said:

...Europe's economy is in a mess. So is ours. we only have a MUCH larger printing press to generate more cash. that is our ONLY advantage over them...

Click to expand...

A bit off-topic, but your colorful assertion is a gross oversimplification that is not an accurate representation of what is really going on. Europe has been pursuing economic policies that are based on austerity — led by the Germans, the largest economy — which is precisely what one does not want to do during a recession and recovery (the time for austerity is during rapid economic growth). The USA approach has been mixed: fiscal policy to stimulate the economy has been stymied by gridlock in Congress. But monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has been able to compensate somewhat and the economy has been growing for more than four years. The European Central Bank has begun to relent and loosen monetary policy, albeit many years too late to prevent a double, and possibly triple, dip recession there. You are correct in that the complexity of the Eurozone makes monetary policy more difficult to implement there than it is here. And the fiscal policy situation — being so fragmented — is even worse.

Ok, back to gas and oil prices and transportation policy...

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oversimplification is required when talking about our economy and ya, we have made some progress which will be undoubtedly wiped out after the next presidential election. the congressional gridlock insures we will make no progress and the flow wealth from the many to the few will continue pretty much unabated.

9-23-14. Just saw gas for $2.94 today.all sations seem to be under $3

epic said:

9-23-14. Just saw gas for $2.94 today.all sations seem to be under $3

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Not at http://www.sanjosegasprices.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. Cheapest I see there is $3.32/gal. Highest for regular is currently $4.39/gal.

I thought I saw $3.60-ish/gal on the way home today.

Hidden Benefits of EV driving; waiting for favorable pricing to get gas in 2nd car.

Filled up yesterday for planned trip on the 6th of October; $3.419

previous fillup; August 11. $3.859

cwerdna said:

epic said:

9-23-14. Just saw gas for $2.94 today.all sations seem to be under $3

Click to expand...

Not at http://www.sanjosegasprices.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. Cheapest I see there is $3.32/gal. Highest for regular is currently $4.39/gal.

I thought I saw $3.60-ish/gal on the way home today.

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Paid $3.54 in the East Bay a few days ago, the first time I've put gas in the car for about 4-5 months. Cheapest locally was $3.50 at some off-brand station.

We're definitely coming down off the summer highs. It's gone down 20 cents here.

This dip in gas prices could make for a good time to drive a hard bargain on an ev or Prius, because everyone knows the situation is permanent.

Mode edit : Removed bigoted/racist comment.


The NY daily news, cnn, abc news are racist and bigoted?

http://abcnews.go.com/International/isis-makes-million-day-selling-oil-analysts/story?id=24814359" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/18/business/al-khatteeb-isis-oil-iraq/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/isis-3m-day-oil-smuggling-theft-human-trafficking-experts-article-1.1939755" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://theantimedia.org/how-the-war-in-syria-is-about-oil-not-isis/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This thread has been quiet of late.

LTLFTcomposite said:

This thread has been quiet of late.

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it is quiet because 1. fuel is not going to be over $5 for awhile and 2. the heavy handed moderation squelches open discussion. racist? that is called intellectually lazy

Always quiet before the storm :|

Honestly this is a golden opportunity to raise fuel taxes.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. The Saudis could decide to increase their output to strangle the frackers. The market could be volatile for awhile. There's no doubt we've got some short-term increase in supplies from fracturing and the trend will be for lower fuel prices until demand catches up. It's a hungry world and I suspect it won't take long. In the meantime the unfortunate side-effects in the U.S. will be increased sales of larger vehicles, and more importantly greater political pressure to relax fuel economy targets and throttle investments in alternative energy. The old "can I at least do it until I need glasses" approach.

Nubo said:

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. The Saudis could decide to increase their output to strangle the frackers. The market could be volatile for awhile. There's no doubt we've got some short-term increase in supplies from fracturing and the trend will be for lower fuel prices until demand catches up. It's a hungry world and I suspect it won't take long. In the meantime the unfortunate side-effects in the U.S. will be increased sales of larger vehicles, and more importantly greater political pressure to relax fuel economy targets and throttle investments in alternative energy. The old "can I at least do it until I need glasses" approach.

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There seem to be three issues:

1) Some of the offline capacity from the Civil War in Libya has come back online. Also Iran may be exporting more.
2) Asia's demand growth has slowed due to slowing of economic growth. Also Europe's demand seems to be dropping, as Europe, especially the peripheral countries, are seeing slowing economies.
3) The increased production from US and Canada, due to fraking and tar sands.

The Saudis need to decide on how they react to the imbalance. They could:

A) reduce production to maintain prices
B) maintain production at current level to maintain market share, and cut prices as needed
C) continue plans to marginally increase production, and even larger price cuts

In the 1980's, they followed (A) until their production was near zero, and the fiscal pain got too large, then switched to (C), driving prices very low. By forcing down prices, the more expensive producers will be forced to cut back, and then prices can rise again.

I doubt if they will try to maintain prices. Better for them to let the price dip, drive out the competition, increase demand, and then the price will recover.