TSLA stock price discussion thread

[redLEAF]

I think if you look up the word 'volatility' (as it relates to stock) it would show a Tesla as an example ... up almost 3% again ...

up $6.88 share to $260.74 or 2.71% for the day after dropping almost $20/share earlier this week

 

[lorenfb]

It's not the TSLA price change that's significant, but it's what Morgan Stanley said about the present EV
market place and what the significance will be for the Tesla Model E in the future. Neither is very encouraging!

 

[cwerdna]

It's not the TSLA price change that's significant, but it's what Morgan Stanley said about the present EV
market place and what the significance will be for the Tesla Model E in the future. Neither is very encouraging!

So what Morgan Stanley says is the truth and is a guarantee of how things will pan out?

I found http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/2/15/sp-500-getting-close-to-consensus-price-target.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (archive at https://web.archive.org/web/20130218025648/http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/2/15/sp-500-getting-close-to-consensus-price-target.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false along w/the same Morgan Stanley S&P 500 price target at http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-2013-outlook-2012-11" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

Our year-end 2013 S&P500 price target is 1434, and our bull and bear targets are 1733 and 1135 .

That's a pretty damn big range.

And, it closed out 2013 at 1,848.36, so none of the firms there got it right... This is a problem w/"analysts". Someone on another forum I'm on refers to them as anal rapists.

 

[JPVLeaf]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-16/taking-stock-tynan-and-kallo-discuss-tesla.html?cmpid=yhoo

TSLA talk begins @ 1:50 min. w/ Ben Kallo and Kevin Tynan ... including counter to Morgan Stanley's Adam J's comments to TSLA EV market ....
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/v_TERMswdcto.mp3

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

http://news.investors.com/102714-723574-tesla-stock-falls-on-lower-sales-report.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just a hint sales are slowing is good for a 5% drop. Buying opportunity or falling knife?

I'm concerned they are slipping the model X and have another full year to hold people's interest with just the model S. Even with the AWD version, is that enough to hold off a big drop? Looking at the history of things like amazon and netflix there can be big opportunities after the initial honeymoon ends with momentum players, stock plummets, and they enter another multi-year phase where real growth and earnings catches back up and eventually far exceeds all the early expectations.

It would be great to get in around $40-50.

 

[palmermd]

http://news.investors.com/102714-723574-tesla-stock-falls-on-lower-sales-report.htm

Just a hint sales are slowing is good for a 5% drop. Buying opportunity or falling knife?

I'm concerned they are slipping the model X and have another full year to hold people's interest with just the model S. Even with the AWD version, is that enough to hold off a big drop? Looking at the history of things like amazon and netflix there can be big opportunities after the initial honeymoon ends with momentum players, stock plummets, and they enter another multi-year phase where real growth and earnings catches back up and eventually far exceeds all the early expectations.

It would be great to get in around $40-50.

I agree with everything you said except that I don't believe we will ever see the price below $120 unless some disaster strikes. For me, I'm seeing this as a buying opportunity. I'm probably going to pickup some more shares this week.

I also don't think the X is too far delayed (fell back about 6 months from earlier target of q4 2014). All indications are for first half of next year, probably late June 2015 and a ramp up similar to the Model S in June 2012.

The energy play with this stock is what I believe will be a bigger driver. Their battery storage/peak demand shaving devices are going to sell like hotcakes to all the large industrial factories. Cost versus return on investment means that they can have huge margins and still sell more than they can produce once the gigafactory is built.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I agree with everything you said except that I don't believe we will ever see the price below $120 unless some disaster strikes. For me, I'm seeing this as a buying opportunity. I'm probably going to pickup some more shares this week.

I also don't think the X is too far delayed (fell back about 6 months from earlier target of q4 2014). All indications are for first half of next year, probably late June 2015 and a ramp up similar to the Model S in June 2012.

The energy play with this stock is what I believe will be a bigger driver. Their battery storage/peak demand shaving devices are going to sell like hotcakes to all the large industrial factories. Cost versus return on investment means that they can have huge margins and still sell more than they can produce once the gigafactory is built.

What about the election/public policy variable if the GOP takes the senate? Will California/CARB still be the driver?

 

[palmermd]

I agree with everything you said except that I don't believe we will ever see the price below $120 unless some disaster strikes. For me, I'm seeing this as a buying opportunity. I'm probably going to pickup some more shares this week.

I also don't think the X is too far delayed (fell back about 6 months from earlier target of q4 2014). All indications are for first half of next year, probably late June 2015 and a ramp up similar to the Model S in June 2012.

The energy play with this stock is what I believe will be a bigger driver. Their battery storage/peak demand shaving devices are going to sell like hotcakes to all the large industrial factories. Cost versus return on investment means that they can have huge margins and still sell more than they can produce once the gigafactory is built.

What about the election/public policy variable if the GOP takes the senate? Will California/CARB still be the driver?

I believe Tesla when they say that their profitability is not dependant on gov't subsidies or air pollution credits. Those extra streams of income are probably what it paying for the Supercharger buildout. If they lost all of that income, they could still survive selling cars at the margins that they have, they would just have to slow down their growth. But as I noted, I think the bigger part of the company is the energy play, and they have not even started to sell these since they have to wait until the battery factory is completed sometime next year.

 

[Zythryn]

The Lease deal announced Sunday also makes investors nervous, while customers will love it.
With a "happiness" guarantee that if you arent happy with the Model S you can return it and owe nothing further, investors probably see it as a financial risk.

The humorous sales numbers rumor probably had a big effect.
It would be nice for a change to see a lower than reality expectation going into the quarterly report.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Isn't that lease with $6k+ down/cap cost reduction? Do you get any of that back if you return the car? If not that would make for an expensive three month joy ride.

 

[Zythryn]

http://news.investors.com/102714-723574-tesla-stock-falls-on-lower-sales-report.htm

Just a hint sales are slowing is good for a 5% drop. Buying opportunity or falling knife?

I'm concerned they are slipping the model X and have another full year to hold people's interest with just the model S. Even with the AWD version, is that enough to hold off a big drop? Looking at the history of things like amazon and netflix there can be big opportunities after the initial honeymoon ends with momentum players, stock plummets, and they enter another multi-year phase where real growth and earnings catches back up and eventually far exceeds all the early expectations.

It would be great to get in around $40-50.

Looks like it may have been a buying opportunity.
Musk tweeted that the sales guesses were wron and North American sales were not down 26%, as rumored, but up 65% yoy.
We will see how the stock reacts to accurate information.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Looks like it may have been a buying opportunity.
Musk tweeted that the sales guesses were wron and North American sales were not down 26%, as rumored, but up 65% yoy.
We will see how the stock reacts to accurate information.

Yeah, up substantially in pre market.

 

[palmermd]

bummer...missed my buying opportunity. Funds did not arrive in time.

 

[donald]

I was looking at TSLA as an investment opportunity.

I don't get it.

It has market capitalisation of $26bn, but assets of only $1bn.

Plus its borrowing to equity is over x2.

A good plan for the future, new product line-up and market position mitigates the b/e ratio and maybe doubles the virtual assets, but with 125 million shares issued, surely they should be around the $15 mark, not $200 current?

What am I missing? Is it just an over-inflated investment bubble? Not that you can't make money out of a bubble, but it's not a long term investment at that price, surely?

 

[palmermd]

Here is a good analysis of TSLA. And he did not even include the profits from Tesla the energy company who will be building battery packs to shave peak loads from industrial plants. GM on these sales are likely to be even higher than the vehicle sales and it gets produced in the same factory as the packs for the vehicles to reduce operating costs (compared to a battery only company or a vehicle company that does not have a battery plant). I think TSLA is a good investment now mostly because of the energy side rather than the vehicle side of the business.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/07/01/tesla-motors-inc-stock-a-look-at-valuation-it-may.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I like the analysis even if I disagree about whether it is a good time to buy. He wrote it when the stock was about 25% higher than it is today, so even if it just went back to where it was when he wrote it, it would be a good investment.

disclosures: I'm long TSLA, I bought most of my TSLA below $30/share, but I did add to my position at $170, and I'm looking to buy more in the near future if it falls below $200 during its current downtrend.

 

[donald]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/07/01/tesla-motors-inc-stock-a-look-at-valuation-it-may.aspx

I like the analysis even if I disagree about whether it is a good time to buy.

Well, perhaps that is shareholder bias.

The article is over-optimistic, not for what it says but, of course, what it fails to say. The elephant due in the room, so to speak!

 

[Zythryn]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/07/01/tesla-motors-inc-stock-a-look-at-valuation-it-may.aspx

I like the analysis even if I disagree about whether it is a good time to buy.

Well, perhaps that is shareholder bias.

The article is over-optimistic, not for what it says but, of course, what it fails to say. The elephant due in the room, so to speak!

Possible, or perhaps it isn't.
Most analysts have a price target around $275-$300.

It is priced on future earnings, and there is a lot of risk with such a young company.

With their disruptive product, sales structure, production structure (they outsource as little as possible to keep costs down) they have huge potential in the automotive market.
Add to that their potential disruptive affect on the energy business and you have even more possibilities.

But again, this is all betting on the mid term future 3-7 years.
I put a tiny portion of my portfolio into the stock as I prefer dividend payers.
This speculative investment is now a much larger part of my portfolio.

I wouldn't buy now. However I wouldn't tell anyone that now is a bad time to invest.

 

[donald]

It is priced on future earnings, and there is a lot of risk with such a young company.

But it is a double risk. Not only are tesla's earnings at higher volumes unknown, but no-one has yet stopped to discuss the impact of competition.

Tesla is small and nimble and has responded far quicker than conventional VMs, but small and nimble only gives you a market advantage until the dinosaurs lumber up. Then they flatten you! Talk of 30% profit margins isn't living in reality when someone else is prepared to do the same as you're doing and accept 10%. If one company sees another making money, they'll move in soon enough when the volumes justify the investment.

 

[Zythryn]

It is priced on future earnings, and there is a lot of risk with such a young company.

But it is a double risk. Not only are tesla's earnings at higher volumes unknown, but no-one has yet stopped to discuss the impact of competition.

Tesla is small and nimble and has responded far quicker than conventional VMs, but small and nimble only gives you a market advantage until the dinosaurs lumber up. Then they flatten you! Talk of 30% profit margins isn't living in reality when someone else is prepared to do the same as you're doing and accept 10%. If one company sees another making money, they'll move in soon enough when the volumes justify the investment.

I agree.
As a matter of fact, I thought for sure one of the big auto makers would step up and beat Tesla to a large luxury sedan.

Not only didn't they, but most kept crying out vaporware right up until December of 2012.

At one point, Tesla could have been squashed like a bug.
Now though Tesla has a unique sales platform advantage (direct sales which people seem to prefer to dealers).
They have their 300 superchargers across the world, and growing at a rate of about one/day.
They are constructing a gigantic battery factory to bring down prices even more.
They re installing solar and battery backup at a few of the supercharger sites to allow them to spend less on electricity.

Many view TSLA as a Disruptive company. Similar to buying MSFT stock back in its early years, or Apple at $12/share before the iPod/iPhone came about.

The only company I see beating TSLA to a sub $40k 150 mile range car is Nissan.
The rest just don't seem to have put their heart into it.
They will though, when they realize that not doing so is just going to mean having to fight with the other dinosaurs over a smaller and smaller market.

 

[JeremyW]

I think Tesla's supercharging network is a very undervalued section of the company by "analysts" because it is so different. No other car maker has actual nationwide infrastructure like that.

I am a bit worried about the Model X and those Falcon wing doors... sticking with the Apple analogy this would be the Apple III. :roll: Actually I think highway efficiency may not be so good and the market initially won't like to see any less range. I think they may end up offering a 100 kWh option on it. However it'll have a price tag to match and there will be reports of "we don't want another expensive ev; where's the everyday man's car?!" etc. etc. BUT eventually it'll be praised just like the S is. America has a huge appetite for SUV's and I think with an expanded supercharger network (which will be more heavily marketed too) will help X sales even more than S.

I think the dip after X pricing announcement might be a good time to buy in (again).