TSLA stock price discussion thread

[Zythryn]

Lots of hate coming from Lorenfb. Is this recent with regards to Tesla, or was he one of those saying the company would go bankrupt in 2008?

No, it's just my view of reality. The MS is well made just like most vehicles being produced today whether
it's and an ICE or a BEV. There's nothing exceptional about it that other automotive OEMs couldn't
produce if they wanted to enter that segment of the market.

I don't disagree, as a matter of fact, I would argue many could do it better.
Just as they could have made a better Roadster in 2008, a better Model S in 2012, and a better AWD Model S in 2014.

They aren't though, giving Tesla:
as much of the luxury car market as it can fill,
enough profit to allow it to start building a worldwide fast charging network better than any other,
enough leverage to attract a partner in Panasonic to begin building the worlds largest, most efficient battery plant,
enough recognition and influence to begin to change protectionist legislation protecting the dealership model from competition.

So if they haven't yet started competing when they could have stopped Tesla early on, when will they?

At least rather than ignoring Tesla, or laughing at them, they are now at least talking about competing in a couple more years.

 

[palmermd]

I don't disagree, as a matter of fact, I would argue many could do it better.
Just as they could have made a better Roadster in 2008, a better Model S in 2012, and a better AWD Model S in 2014.

They aren't though, giving Tesla:
as much of the luxury car market as it can fill,
enough profit to allow it to start building a worldwide fast charging network better than any other,
enough leverage to attract a partner in Panasonic to begin building the worlds largest, most efficient battery plant,
enough recognition and influence to begin to change protectionist legislation protecting the dealership model from competition.

So if they haven't yet started competing when they could have stopped Tesla early on, when will they?

At least rather than ignoring Tesla, or laughing at them, they are now at least talking about competing in a couple more years.

Well said. It's nice to read a well reasoned response here once in a while.

 

[mitch672]

At least rather than ignoring Tesla, or laughing at them, they are now at least talking about competing in a couple more years.

The majors will NEVER compete directly with Tesla, it's far, far too late for them.
They'll never give up their "ICE" technology, it's too late for them, besides, they aren't really interested, nor do they "get it" (or care to).

Tesla's competition will come from a new upstart, that's what they need to worry about, and even that isn't a serious concern, until Tesla is a major manufacturer. The competition is the 100 million ICE cars made each year, not a few hundred thousand competing BEVs'

 

[evnow]

The majors will NEVER compete directly with Tesla, it's far, far too late for them.
They'll never give up their "ICE" technology, it's too late for them, besides, they aren't really interested, nor do they "get it" (or care to).

That's like saying Microsoft will never compete with Netscape.

Tesla's competition will come from a new upstart, that's what they need to worry about, and even that isn't a serious concern, until Tesla is a major manufacturer. The competition is the 100 million ICE cars made each year, not a few hundred thousand competing BEVs'

This everyone agrees to.

http://www.hybridcars.com/ghosn-next-generation-leaf-to-feature-200-plus-mile-range/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As for Ghosn, he’s not concerned about these upcoming models.

“We shouldn’t worry about who we are competing with. We should worry about increasing the share of the market” for electric vehicles overall, said Ghosn.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

They're backing up the train today. Buying opportunity or falling knife?

 

[dgpcolorado]

Bank of America analyst is predicting a massive Tesla collapse.

 

[palmermd]

Bank of America analyst is predicting a massive Tesla collapse.

The BofA guy is way out in left field, but the story is well written and can be viewed as very positive for the company. I agree they still have several hurdles to jump before they get away from the possibility of these doom and gloom writeups, but I see them progressing nicely toward that goal. Once the battery factory is up and running and they are selling Model 3, its game over, but those are some VERY large hurdles, so it will be an interesting 3-4 years to watch.

 

[palmermd]

Another interesting video about Tesla and its valuation. Its sort of more history than valuation, but still interesting.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UziAXis9yg[/youtube]

 

[palmermd]

Today the stock price got a bump with the news that they have hired Jeff Dahn from Dalhousie University. They have an exclusive five year agreement to work with the university to develop batteries. http://www.dal.ca/news/2015/06/17/charging-onward--dahns-next-move-marks-first-canadian-university.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-partners-with-battery-researcher-to-lower-costs-1434553116" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


If the name is not familiar, you could watch this video to get familiar with Jeff's knowledge on batteries. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxP0Cu00sZs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There has been a lot of chatter recently from Tesla about batteries and how to continue to reduce the cost in order to make them affordable and to make the price such that they can hit their goal for a $35k entry price point on the Model 3. This is one more positive step in that direction. Apparently the stock market thinks so also as seen by the $3 jump in price today.

 

[RegGuheert]

Today the stock price got a bump with the news that they have hired Jeff Dahn from Dalhousie University.

That's awesome! Adding Jeff Dahn to their staff while simultaneously preventing the competition from accessing him is a big deal!

 

[GRA]

Today the stock price got a bump with the news that they have hired Jeff Dahn from Dalhousie University.

That's awesome! Adding Jeff Dahn to their staff while simultaneously preventing the competition from accessing him is a big deal!

Plenty of other battery experts out there. Yi Cui's team is at Stanford, and the number of academics elsewhere working in this area isn't small. John Goodenough's still got grad students publishing, and so's Stan Whittingham. Lots of new up and comers as well.

 

[nosuchthing]

All nice and dandy. Bulls or bears.

There will be a stock market crash in 2019. I am pulling everything out (IRAs) Jan 2018. And I can only hope I'm not too late. Last time my crash prediction was 2009. I was off by about 6 months because of the stupid banks, AIG on top of the heap.

And of course, it's a buy a few days after the crash.

 

[RegGuheert]

Plenty of other battery experts out there. Yi Cui's team is at Stanford, and the number of academics elsewhere working in this area isn't small. John Goodenough's still got grad students publishing, and so's Stan Whittingham. Lots of new up and comers as well.

Does anyone else have the ability to determine battery life in two weeks of testing? If not, they cannot keep up. That is a key piece of technology, IMO.

 

[lorenfb]

Plenty of other battery experts out there. Yi Cui's team is at Stanford, and the number of academics elsewhere working in this area isn't small. John Goodenough's still got grad students publishing, and so's Stan Whittingham. Lots of new up and comers as well.

Yes! Always some hyperbole from Tesla to potentially counter some future negative news, e.g. the Model X
ship date moves to the late Q4?. And why don't we hear anything about Panasonic and their involvement with
Giga? It's been about 18 months since they committed $200M, i.e. originally their contribution was to equal
Tesla's $2.5B (convertibles sold (scammed) by Morgan Stanley).

 

[mbender]

Today the stock price got a bump with the news that they have hired Jeff Dahn from Dalhousie University.

That's awesome! Adding Jeff Dahn to their staff while simultaneously preventing the competition from accessing him is a big deal!

Even though I'm glad about this "on the one hand", on the other, I'm not crazy about corporate infiltration and influence in universities. It sounds like Tesla will now "own" him (come June 2016), his lab and his entire team for five years, and will probably own any and all IP that is produced*. But I guess that's the way things are now (apparently he was 'partnering' with 3M for the past 20 years), and will continue to be.

So actually, if any corporation was going to partner with him, I'm glad it was Tesla!


* though who knows the details; hopefully, the university will share in any future financial benefits or 'windfall'.

 

[mbender]

And why don't we hear anything about Panasonic and their involvement with Giga? It's been about 18 months since they committed $200M...

It sounds like you may have missed the quite recent news about Hundreds of Panasonic employees coming over to help get things going at the gigafactory. Hate to break that to you, and the fact that the stock rose in response to this news.

 

[lorenfb]

Hundreds of Panasonic employees coming over to help get things going at the gigafactory. Hate to break that to you, and the fact that the stock rose in response to this news.

Call it the biggest little job relocation. Panasonic plans to send hundreds of employees to Tesla Motors' gigafactory site east of Reno-Sparks later this year ...

Typical news release, i.e. "plans" - believe it when it happens.

With regard to changes in the TSLA price, TSLA has one of the highest volatilities (standard deviation of the
stock prices) and as such it lacks fundamental financial valuation, i.e. the sum of the present values of the
future cash flows. TSLA basically ignores any negative news of late, e.g. the delay of the Model X, and
focuses on an imaginary future product, i.e. the Model 3.

Could this latest battery technology announcement be an attempt to add a positive note to a first half of
2015 missed sales number to be provided in a few weeks, besides another slipped Model X ship date?
Seems Elon usually tries to hype the stock before negative news appears.

 

[dgpcolorado]

All nice and dandy. Bulls or bears.

There will be a stock market crash in 2019. I am pulling everything out (IRAs) Jan 2018. And I can only hope I'm not too late. Last time my crash prediction was 2009. I was off by about 6 months because of the stupid banks, AIG on top of the heap.

And of course, it's a buy a few days after the crash.

Market timing? Really? I rode out the 2008 bear market and did fine, same as with several previous bear markets.

While I agree that a bear market will come eventually, the problem with market timing is that you have to make two right calls: when to get out and when to get back in. The people who did worst are those who panicked and sold stocks into the last bear market and then missed the roaring bull market that followed because they were scared by stocks.

Not that a wildly speculative stock like TSLA is remotely representative of the stock market as a whole.

 

[palmermd]

The stock took a hit today due to the news of Consumer Reports giving the car a downgrade in its recommendation due to some reliability issues with the body. Door, sunroof squeaks and rattles and such reported from owners. I thought about buying some more today on the news, but I did not because I still see some additional near term risk to the stock price from the lack of Model X deliveries. I don't think this is a long term issue, but I'm not ready to buy more shares just yet. I've accumulated on every dip to this point, and this will be the first news driven dip to the stock that I am opting not to accumulate shares.

 

[Zythryn]

I think that is wise.
I'm thinking they will lower full year guidance below 50k.
After that sell off would be when I would buy if I were not building a house.

As is, I'll just sit on the sidelines while the shorts pile in and then watch them get slaughtered in 4-6 months