Spreadsheet : VINs, Delivery Dates, Order Dates etc

[turbo2ltr]

57 People reported getting a delivery month today (includes 5 new entries with april or may deliveries)

That's like 20% of recorded undelivered entries. Sounds like to me the floodgates are about to open.

 

[evnow]

It would be interesting to see how many Leafs Nissan delivers in Japan this month. That should give a clue to the April deliveries here.

 

[smkettner]

The CCSE folks are going to be VERY busy in March and April processing the $5k CA rebate applications and cutting checks!

The money will be gone in April IMO. It will only be the early April deliveries that gets paid. The rest will wait for July at best and any new rules that go along with the new money.

 

[gascant]

I was at work when my email came in this morning at 8:15 PST. I join the minions of April '11 deliveries--order details below. I got the AV EVSE--installer said I was the 2nd in the Bay Area to get it way back in November (but maybe he meant in their coverage area).

 

[Coffee_Slurry]

The CCSE folks are going to be VERY busy in March and April processing the $5k CA rebate applications and cutting checks!

The money will be gone in April IMO. It will only be the early April deliveries that gets paid. The rest will wait for July at best and any new rules that go along with the new money.

How do you figure?

 

[smkettner]

Just the gut. Only ~1300 slots left. I think CA deliveries in Feb, March, April will exceed 1300. Nothing scientific or actually calculated.
Time will tell.

 

[gascant]

It would be interesting to see how many Leafs Nissan delivers in Japan this month. That should give a clue to the April deliveries here.

Are you tracking it, evnow?
To me it makes good business sense to fill Japanese orders in this quarter.

 

[kutzsche]

Does anyone know how to check how many CARB rebates are remaining? Originally someone claimed there are only 5 millions dollars (=1000 cars). I wasn't able to find any details on the exact number of rebates available or remaining.
To be honest - this is a major car buying decision for me, paying 5k more or less makes a big difference when trading off the Leaf vs. other cars (say the Civic CNG). I originally assumed I will get the 7.5k federal credit plus the 5k CA credit, but this doesn't seem to be true. If the CARB money runs out before even the earliest of the early adopter have bought this car, then this program is a complete joke.

Thomas

 

[smkettner]

kutzsche, welcome to the forum

https://energycenter.org/index.php/...an-vehicle-rebate-project/cvrp-program-status

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=921

 

[Coffee_Slurry]

Just the gut. Only ~1300 slots left. I think CA deliveries in Feb, March, April will exceed 1300. Nothing scientific or actually calculated.
Time will tell.

We'll see. At least we won't have to compete for funds with the Trucks.

1,332 slots remaining. And it's just California. I think we'll get all the April/May deliveries in. If the VIN numbers start spreading out in the spreadsheet, I'll get worried since it means forum participation is dropping off rapidly with the later orders.

 

[planet4ever]

Reservation Complete: 4/21/2010 6:49 AM
Order Date: 11/24/2010
Delivery Estimate on User DashBoard: 4/2011 (Month of April 2011)

Something is really screwy. You reserved the 21st instead of the 20th? You ordered Nov. 24th, and have an April delivery? I reserved the 20th (3:00 PM MST/3 PM PDT), ordered Sept. 29th/accepted 30th, and have a May delivery. What's wrong with this picture?

No, not necessarily screwy. What ElectricVehicle is reporting is the timestamp on the "reservation complete" email. I don't think the timing of that email has anything to do with where you are in line. My reservation complete email was sent at 23:15:13 PDT on 21 Apr 2010 but my RAQ opened on 9/1 (submitted 9/1, accepted 9/2) because I submitted my reservation around 3 PM on the 20th.

 

[LeafinThePark]

Didin't see if anyone had posted this yet...new entree over at nissan-leaf.net. Seems to gel with all the orders opening up.

http://nissan-leaf.net/2011/02/09/nissan-says-leaf-orders-will-be-met-by-end-of-summer/

As an aside It's reported that 89 Leafs were delivered in January, while our spreadsheet shows 48...by those numbers we can guesstimate that the posters on this site represent approximately 50% of early adapters.

 

[opencar]

Just the gut. Only ~1300 slots left. I think CA deliveries in Feb, March, April will exceed 1300. Nothing scientific or actually calculated.
Time will tell.

We'll see. At least we won't have to compete for funds with the Trucks.

1,332 slots remaining. And it's just California. I think we'll get all the April/May deliveries in. If the VIN numbers start spreading out in the spreadsheet, I'll get worried since it means forum participation is dropping off rapidly with the later orders.

i'm inclined to be a little more optimistic as well. i've got an Apr delivery date and there are 160 ahead of me in the spreadsheet. Roughly 110 of these are californians. for all the rebates to be taken by early April our spreadsheet would represent only 10% of the total buyers. I think the forum represents a larger percentage of the universe of buyers (perhaps 20-30%?).

 

[palmermd]

i'm inclined to be a little more optimistic as well. i've got an Apr delivery date and there are 160 ahead of me in the spreadsheet. Roughly 110 of these are californians. for all the rebates to be taken by early April our spreadsheet would represent only 10% of the total buyers. I think the forum represents a larger percentage of the universe of buyers (perhaps 20-30%?).

Be careful about how you count. The spreadsheet is only ordered by order date, and people who ordered after you may get their car before you. For example there are people who ordered 3 months after me who are showing the same delivery month. What happens if they get their cars before me?

I'm inclined to agree with you. There are 300 some folks listed, and if they all got their cars ahead of me I'd probably still get the rebate. 25% is probably a good guess. 50% for early reservations and down to 10% for later ones. it would be nice to get some official numbers to corroborate these guesses.

 

[ElectricVehicle]

Reservation Complete: 4/21/2010 6:49 AM
Order Date: 11/24/2010
Delivery Estimate on User DashBoard: 4/2011 (Month of April 2011)

Something is really screwy. You reserved the 21st instead of the 20th? You ordered Nov. 24th, and have an April delivery? I reserved the 20th (3:00 PM MST/3 PM PDT), ordered Sept. 29th/accepted 30th, and have a May delivery. What's wrong with this picture?

No, not necessarily screwy. What ElectricVehicle is reporting is the timestamp on the "reservation complete" email. I don't think the timing of that email has anything to do with where you are in line. My reservation complete email was sent at 23:15:13 PDT on 21 Apr 2010 but my RAQ opened on 9/1 (submitted 9/1, accepted 9/2) because I submitted my reservation around 3 PM on the 20th.

I see LEAFfan that yours is in AZ. It looks like the AZ, OR, WA deliveries are going to be slightly behind CA - Some are close to the same time, some are lagging by 1- 3 weeks. Who knows? I might get mine on April 30, and you might get yours on May 1. At any rate we all get LEAFs! I have to admit that I'll be keeping my RAV4 EV, so the wait is a matter of excitement and not necessity for me since I don't have to replace my existing vehicle for a few years. I can certainly sympathize with those who need a vehicle now and are having to borrow or rent a vehicle until their LEAF arrives.

 

[johnr]

Yesterday morning, I got the email I've been waiting for

Hi John, congratulations! Your vehicle is scheduled to arrive at your Nissan Dealer in the month of April 2011.

@Richard: Your Where's My Leaf page is coming up blank now... :?

 

[MikeyD]

Didin't see if anyone had posted this yet...new entree over at nissan-leaf.net. Seems to gel with all the orders opening up.

http://nissan-leaf.net/2011/02/09/nissan-says-leaf-orders-will-be-met-by-end-of-summer/

As an aside It's reported that 89 Leafs were delivered in January, while our spreadsheet shows 48...by those numbers we can guesstimate that the posters on this site represent approximately 50% of early adapters.

Question about this article, they are saying that the 8,000 or so orders will 100% have their Leafs' by Summer 2011 end. Now, what about the other 12,000? Have they just not put down their order money, or are they possible 'deflectors'? If so, will the Reservations for us in the "Forgotten 36" possibly have a chance sometime late spring, early summer to Reserve?

Am I just asking too much?! :lol:
Congrats to those who got their April/May delivery date BTW!

 

[wsbca]

Question about this article, they are saying that the 8,000 or so orders will 100% have their Leafs' by Summer 2011 end. Now, what about the other 12,000?

There aren't 20,000 orders. There are 20,000 reservations. There isn't anything to indicate that there are even 8000 orders yet. The 8000 is extrapolated from the 40% conversion rate of reservation to order that has occurred so far, for the X number of reservation holders who have been given a chance to order. That is to say, if all 20,000 reservation holders were given a chance to order, the estimate is 8,000 of them might actually order. But nobody knows what "X" is.

Think about how many of the folks on this forum and in the spreadsheet have recently received delivery date information (even people that have ordered as late as November) - even if this forum has far less penetration than we have been speculating (meaning there are lots of orders we know nothing about), to me the fact that so many people we _do_ know about are seeing dashboard activity says the actual number of orders that have been placed is not massive. Which fits with the reality I see around me - lots of people are very interested in our car, conceptually...to go from there to deciding to buy one is a major, major decision. There is much work to be done yet.


Edit: don't get me wrong - I'd LOVE to see thousands of Leafs on the road within a few months. In fact I'm agonizing for that dream to come true as soon as possible. I'm just trying to be realistic, and counting on the underlying assumption that Nissan is in it for the long haul.

 

[richard]

@Richard:[/b] Your Where's My Leaf page is coming up blank now... :?

There was a Google glitch, then I goofed doing normal maintenance. It's all right now. Tks.

 

[LeafinThePark]

Question about this article, they are saying that the 8,000 or so orders will 100% have their Leafs' by Summer 2011 end. Now, what about the other 12,000?

There aren't 20,000 orders. There are 20,000 reservations. There isn't anything to indicate that there are even 8000 orders yet. The 8000 is extrapolated from the 40% conversion rate of reservation to order that has occurred so far, for the X number of reservation holders who have been given a chance to order. That is to say, if all 20,000 reservation holders were given a chance to order, the estimate is 8,000 of them might actually order. But nobody knows what "X" is.

Do you know this information (40% conversion rate) to be true or are you speculating? I was thinking along the same lines but there wasn't enough detail in the article to come to any conclusion.