Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[Nubo]

...
[*]"intentional dishonest act"
If there is any evidence that Tesla believed at the time the estimates were made that they could not be fulfilled, I haven't seen it. Were they optimistic? Probably. Did they fall far short of the planned ramp? Of course! But there is no evidence that Elon sat down with Voldemort, Moff Tarkin, and Lex Luthor and said "boys, we're going to promise delivery in January, even though we can NEVER do it, because we want that sweet, sweet kilobuck from u/_rdaneel_...

Well Imho even a casual bystander should have seen it coming. So, incompetent or dishonest (“unfair” if you’re generous), take your pick. Much Ill will could be avoided by treating reservations as first-come first-served but instead they play “who’s more worthy”. Whatever. It’s their SOP so, caveat emptor.

 

[EVDRIVER]

...
[*]"intentional dishonest act"
If there is any evidence that Tesla believed at the time the estimates were made that they could not be fulfilled, I haven't seen it. Were they optimistic? Probably. Did they fall far short of the planned ramp? Of course! But there is no evidence that Elon sat down with Voldemort, Moff Tarkin, and Lex Luthor and said "boys, we're going to promise delivery in January, even though we can NEVER do it, because we want that sweet, sweet kilobuck from u/_rdaneel_...

Well Imho even a casual bystander should have seen it coming. So, incompetent or dishonest (“unfair” if you’re generous), take your pick. Much Ill will could be avoided by treating reservations as first-come first-served but instead they play “who’s more worthy”. Whatever. It’s their SOP so, caveat emptor.

Reservations are first come first served based on the place in line and production types as well. Please don't tell me you think they should make cars based on the order they were placed no matter the options or config. If they did they would be 5 times slower.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

If you are looking for a big car why not get a used S with free SC?

Are you really Elon?

No but a used S makes a bunch of sense for many people.

need spellcheck. that should be "cents"

 

[Nubo]

...
[*]"intentional dishonest act"
If there is any evidence that Tesla believed at the time the estimates were made that they could not be fulfilled, I haven't seen it. Were they optimistic? Probably. Did they fall far short of the planned ramp? Of course! But there is no evidence that Elon sat down with Voldemort, Moff Tarkin, and Lex Luthor and said "boys, we're going to promise delivery in January, even though we can NEVER do it, because we want that sweet, sweet kilobuck from u/_rdaneel_...

Well Imho even a casual bystander should have seen it coming. So, incompetent or dishonest (“unfair” if you’re generous), take your pick. Much Ill will could be avoided by treating reservations as first-come first-served but instead they play “who’s more worthy”. Whatever. It’s their SOP so, caveat emptor.

Reservations are first come first served based on the place in line and production types as well. Please don't tell me you think they should make cars based on the order they were placed no matter the options or config. If they did they would be 5 times slower.

Yep that is what I think. It’s a modular design, no?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

...
[*]"intentional dishonest act"
If there is any evidence that Tesla believed at the time the estimates were made that they could not be fulfilled, I haven't seen it. Were they optimistic? Probably. Did they fall far short of the planned ramp? Of course! But there is no evidence that Elon sat down with Voldemort, Moff Tarkin, and Lex Luthor and said "boys, we're going to promise delivery in January, even though we can NEVER do it, because we want that sweet, sweet kilobuck from u/_rdaneel_...

Well Imho even a casual bystander should have seen it coming. So, incompetent or dishonest (“unfair” if you’re generous), take your pick. Much Ill will could be avoided by treating reservations as first-come first-served but instead they play “who’s more worthy”. Whatever. It’s their SOP so, caveat emptor.

Reservations are first come first served based on the place in line and production types as well. Please don't tell me you think they should make cars based on the order they were placed no matter the options or config. If they did they would be 5 times slower.

Many modern assembly plants build not only several different trims of a model on the same line but also several different models. The reality is Tesla was not ready to do what they said they would do and apparently did little if any vetting on their suppliers.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Well Imho even a casual bystander should have seen it coming. So, incompetent or dishonest (“unfair” if you’re generous), take your pick. Much Ill will could be avoided by treating reservations as first-come first-served but instead they play “who’s more worthy”. Whatever. It’s their SOP so, caveat emptor.

Reservations are first come first served based on the place in line and production types as well. Please don't tell me you think they should make cars based on the order they were placed no matter the options or config. If they did they would be 5 times slower.

Yep that is what I think. It’s a modular design, no?

It is slow to build cars that way, they are done in runs. This is why the S is so costly, custom parts, custom runs. The new S and X will have a new design platform greatly reducing cost and time to build.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Well Imho even a casual bystander should have seen it coming. So, incompetent or dishonest (“unfair” if you’re generous), take your pick. Much Ill will could be avoided by treating reservations as first-come first-served but instead they play “who’s more worthy”. Whatever. It’s their SOP so, caveat emptor.

Reservations are first come first served based on the place in line and production types as well. Please don't tell me you think they should make cars based on the order they were placed no matter the options or config. If they did they would be 5 times slower.

Many modern assembly plants build not only several different trims of a model on the same line but also several different models. The reality is Tesla was not ready to do what they said they would do and apparently did little if any vetting on their suppliers.

So many variables there, volume of a specific model, plant. years in business, other cars made on the line, etc. In all I think they are not doing a bad job considering all the factors and timeline. It's not like they have been mass producing cars for decades like other car makers with long established high volume relationships.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Reservations are first come first served based on the place in line and production types as well. Please don't tell me you think they should make cars based on the order they were placed no matter the options or config. If they did they would be 5 times slower.

Many modern assembly plants build not only several different trims of a model on the same line but also several different models. The reality is Tesla was not ready to do what they said they would do and apparently did little if any vetting on their suppliers.

So many variables there, volume of a specific model, plant. years in business, other cars made on the line, etc. In all I think they are not doing a bad job considering all the factors and timeline. It's not like they have been mass producing cars for decades like other car makers with long established high volume relationships.

Definitely a lot of moving parts. From what I can tell (and its not really a lot) its more a vendor issue than actually anything Tesla can control directly.

But then again we are looking at them under a microscope on a daily basis so the reality is any issue is being magnified by the setting of that microscope.

 

[OrientExpress]

good luck on these: Nismo, NiO, Lucid, FF, a Jag, Infiniti, VW. Lucid is still tearing apart M3s now to see how they work.

I've driven them all, and they are all quality efforts far more mature than anything that Tesla has been able to produce so far. But the bottom line is that by this time next year, the selection of alternatives to Tesla will be huge, there will be something for every taste and pocketbook.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Prototypes are one thing, mass producing is another. I was not aware those were all auto makers with their own factories and all. I'm not sure there will be a huge number of options in 2019 and a lack of a proper SC network is a non-starter for many. Clearly there will be more options for diverse needs Where is the Nismo factory? AMG is building cars too now? Been waiting long on that infinity made by a company that has extensive pack knowledge so by then it should be a show stopper. I think the Bolt is more viable then many of them already.

 

[Evoforce]

good luck on these: Nismo, NiO, Lucid, FF, a Jag, Infiniti, VW. Lucid is still tearing apart M3s now to see how they work.

I've driven them all, and they are all quality efforts far more mature than anything that Tesla has been able to produce so far. But the bottom line is that by this time next year, the selection of alternatives to Tesla will be huge, there will be something for every taste and pocketbook.

Nissan set the mark first. Then Tesla set the new mark. I'm looking forward to these companies doing at least as good as Tesla, if not better! I will believe it, when I see these possible competitors produce these cars in meaningful numbers for public consumption.

 

[cwerdna]

Reservations are first come first served based on the place in line and production types as well. Please don't tell me you think they should make cars based on the order they were placed no matter the options or config. If they did they would be 5 times slower.

Many modern assembly plants build not only several different trims of a model on the same line but also several different models. The reality is Tesla was not ready to do what they said they would do and apparently did little if any vetting on their suppliers.

+1 on what Dave said. EVDRIVER, have you toured auto plants of other major automakers?

As I noted at https://priuschat.com/threads/choose-2012-prius-five-or-2012-elantra-limited.95215/page-3#post-1347131 in 2011, Mazda (I toured their Hiroshima plant in late 2001) and Toyota (I toured their Tsutsumi plant in late 2003) have multiple models all being built on the same line. And, I don't recall any cases where there were even a bunch in a row that were the same model and steering wheel on the same side, at least not a Mazda.

Toyota is in the top 4 of the largest automakers in the world by production and sales, sometimes #1.

https://www.assemblymag.com/articles/93387-mixed-model-assembly-is-key-to-profitability claims "Toyota originally developed the concept of mixed-model assembly in the 1960s in response to the problems created by line changeovers."

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/17/business/business-yes-assembly-lines-can-mix-apples-and-oranges.html from 2003 starts of mentioning the Element and Civic are built on the same line. It says

Even a decade ago, Mazda was able to build up to 14 different vehicles at its plant in Hofu, Japan, and eight at its factory in Hiroshima.

From http://articles.latimes.com/1990-01-14/business/fi-393_1_assembly-line from 1990

Miata production has been severely restricted because the car must share space on its assembly line with Mazda's 323, 929 and RX7 models, all of which are big sellers.
...
Not only can Mazda build four, five or even six different cars on the same assembly line, it can also have two or three of those complicated lines running inside the same factory. Without sacrificing quality.

That is unheard of in Detroit, yet it is commonplace in Japan, where the scarcity of available land long ago forced manufacturers to find ways to consolidate their operations. For Japan, that flexibility played a critical role in helping its auto industry retain its competitive edge over America's Big Three throughout the 1980s.

It has also helped the Japanese adapt more readily to changes in the marketplace--and provided them with a way to produce a wider assortment of new cars much more cheaply than is possible in Detroit. With the ability to plug new models into existing assembly lines, the Japanese can often avoid the prohibitively high costs of building new plants.

You can see in the video I posted at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=261926#p261926 multiple different models on the same line at Nissan Oppama. A portion on the plant starts at about 0:57 and ends at about 4:35.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KH_mB3bNwWs published in 2016 mentions they were producing 6 models on the same line and are adding 2. That Renault Samsung Motors plant eventually also started building Nissan Rogues for the US and Canada (https://media.group.renault.com/global/en-gb/renault-samsung-motors/media/pressreleases/62390/renault-samsung-motors-exporte-le-nissan-rogue-vers-lamerique-du-nord1).

 

[EVDRIVER]

Have you toured the Fremont factory? We all know this is typical but it's not as though Tesla has multiple models on the same platform and many other cars they produce that way, they are migrating from basically custom line built cars to more standard production. At this point it makes more sense to produce runs of similar "equipped" M3 cars at the same time to maximize production speed and profitability. This makes complete sense for a company in their position at this point in time. Comparing a relatively new auto maker building all new products to companies like Toyota presently is really a bit silly at this point at many levels. In fact to see what Tesla has done in a short period makes Toyota and others seem silly but that'a a longer more incestuous story about the two of them and Toyota's green washing on the back of Tesla. That mutual back pat gave Tesla a plant, Toyota a solution on labor commitments and made it look like Toyota was doing something green all while they were getting two problems solved at once and simultaneously scuttling any real EV program down the road. Fantastic smoke and mirrors play on Toyotas side and great win for both but more so for Tesla.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

That is a rather inwards looking methodology there.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Timing and churn is the thing that I see that is a major danger for Tesla. If they are not able to ramp up to volume before Q3-18 and still have a huge backlog they will lose an enormous volume of voice in the market because everybody and their brother, and some cousins are going to be introducing some very credible, "made by adults" BEVs in that time frame. All of the reservation holders for the 3 that are easily distracted by the latest, coolest stuff that they can barely afford will churn out and be cannibalized by BEVs from Porsche, AMG, Nismo, NiO, Lucid, FF, a Jag, Infiniti, VW and many many more. I guess it would be easier to say who isn't going to have a BEV in 2019. Competition is a great thing. It tests our mettle, and can be a measure of how much positive capital they have.

Always hard to tease out honesty from the BS online, but what you describe is exactly what I am seeing on the tesla forums, people openly comparing for example the new Jag EV to the model 3 in light of yet another delay (ignore for a moment the price discrepancy between the two).

When I made my reservation, and this is party due to my own ignorance, I was of the impression that for $35k I would get not only a very fast car, and a very fuel efficient one, but one on the bleeding age of autonomous driving, which I am very interested in. Now it turns out that car won't be available by 2019, and yet what is available in 2018, for the same price, is a car (multiple different ones, in truth) that are as fast as the model 3, and more or less have as much autonomy as the model 3 has (if you exclude functionality in autopilot that shouldn't actually be in production due to insufficient safety in its current version). They won't be EV, so the mileage will suck, but they will be far more reliable because they are not teslas. And they are available with a real date, not a "sometime later".

 

[OrientExpress]

As I noted in this forum and others two years ago, It is doubtful that anyone will ever see a $35K Model 3, much less buy one.

The original announcement that the Model 3 would "start" at $35K, was a great tactic to hook all those EV upmarket intenders that don't tend to pay attention to the details and are infatuated with the aura that Tesla has built around itself. This situation has given Tesla a solid shot in the arm with a zero percent working capital loan and little else. The Model 3 was always designed to compete with mid-range BMWs, and Audis, with an ASP in the Mid $40K to $50K space. For the time being Telsa owns the $45K-120K space, but the established players there will have some pretty compelling alternative BEVs there in the next 12-18 months. Honestly, wouldn't you rather have an $80K Porsche, Audi, or MB performance/luxury BEV than a Tesla?

For those that have been conned with the $35K bait, it is yet another source of consternation and frustration for them. Most will either go upmarket for a car they cannot afford, or churn out, get their reservation deposit back, and move into a used LEAF or something else that is more inline with their means.

In the next 18 months, I see Nissan still owning the sub-$40K space, and Tesla under heavy pressure to stay competitive in the +$40K space.

 

[edatoakrun]

Timing and churn is the thing that I see that is a major danger for Tesla. If they are not able to ramp up to volume before Q3-18 and still have a huge backlog they will lose an enormous volume of voice in the market because everybody and their brother, and some cousins are going to be introducing some very credible, "made by adults" BEVs in that time frame...

And whether TSLA is able to ramp 3 production by Q3 or not, the $7,500 FTC will begin to phase out by early next year, the vast majority of the first 200 k TCs having been consumed subsidizing S and X sales.

Meaning the after-tax cost of a model 3 in the USA likely will be increasing next year, even as the competition still has the full credit available, and also has the financial stability to cut prices further.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Not exactly apple to apples. One thing many people are not aware of is the the STD model 3 has FULL autonomous hardware included in the every car. Because of this the car also has redundant systems in many areas as a safety measure for this implementation even if it is not turned on at the time of purchase. This includes such things like:

Braking with separate backup via the ABS
2 CAN busses
Parallel 12V power on opposite sides of the car for collision redundancy
Dual coil power steering windings and redundant dedicated steering CAN busses
And more..

Also the car has no fuses of any kind, all the power systems are solid state. These design philosophies are built around robust safety systems and are not present in cars like the LEAF and others. Clearly the cost to do this including eight high resolution cameras and many sensors is costly. Equitable comparisons of the 3 to other cars is not always straight forward.

 

[edatoakrun]

Not exactly apple to apples. One thing many people are not aware of is the the STD model 3 has FULL autonomous hardware included in the every car. Because of this the car also has redundant systems in many areas as a safety measure for this implementation even if it is not turned on at the time of purchase. This includes such things like:

Braking with separate backup via the ABS
2 CAN busses
Parallel 12V power on opposite sides of the car for collision redundancy
Dual coil power steering windings and redundant dedicated CAN busses
And more..

Also the car has no fuses of any kind, all the power systems are solid state. These design philosophies are built around robust safety systems and are not present in cars like the LEAF and others. Clearly the cost to do this including eight high resolution cameras and many sensors is costly.

And yet, something as simple as a a dead 12 V battery (180 posts, still no diagnosis) results in this model 3 experience:

Tesla Model 3 Down: Won't Power Up, and is Inaccessible

This afternoon, I opened my app to check on the Model 3's charge status. I noticed it wasn't updating and hadn't updated since before 7am, about 9 hours earlier. I went out to the car and it was completely "dead." By that I mean unresponsive with no lights or activity. Tesla was originally sending a flatbed, but because we can't get inside to put it into tow mode, we both agreed waiting for a Ranger to come on Monday would be a better option...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-model-3-down-wont-power-up-and-is-inaccessible.108412/

 

[RegGuheert]

Honestly, wouldn't you rather have an $80K Porsche, Audi, or MB performance/luxury BEV than a Tesla?

Honestly? No.