March 2013 Nissan battery pack replacement survey.

[turbo2ltr]

I think nissan messed up here by excluding people that say they aren't interested in buying from answering the survey. I was wondering why the survey was so short it's because I'm leasing and said I wasn't interested in buying (though I am depending if the 2014 is a significant redesign or not). But I'm not interested in buying BECAUSE of the unaddressed battery issues, such as the cost of replacement. That doesn't make my opinion any less relevant than people that already know they want to buy...

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
Yeah, I kinda agree. I answered I'd lease and don't plan to buy after the lease.

The other is that the battery capacity warranty is only 5 years/60K miles. What if I buy but I don't need replacement under that (since my area is nowhere near as hot at Phoenix) but the car becomes unusable for my needs due to capacity loss after that? I don't know how much it'll cost to replace the pack (yet) and the resale value of an autonomy limited vehicle is unknown.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I think nissan messed up here by excluding people that say they aren't interested in buying from answering the survey. I was wondering why the survey was so short it's because I'm leasing and said I wasn't interested in buying (though I am depending if the 2014 is a significant redesign or not). But I'm not interested in buying BECAUSE of the unaddressed battery issues, such as the cost of replacement. That doesn't make my opinion any less relevant than people that already know they want to buy...

well if it would not have been for the FYI on this forum, i would have never made it to the battery questions either.

either way, very interested in seeing what Nissan will come out with on this battery replacement thing and based on what they said, that info should be out in the next 2-3 weeks.

 

[TimLee]

I have all bars. I have always used the distance I can go on first 10 bars coming off 100% charge as my baseline. At new 4.4 miles per kWh yielded 66 miles at 10 bars gone. Now at 4.4 I only get 57 miles at the best with a low of 54 on the same 10 bars. I like the way Dave has outlined his view and I agree in many respects with his points.

Your original 66 miles range on 10 bars, and now 54 to 57 miles on 10 bars, calculates out to between 13.5% and 18% capacity loss.
You've driven 70,000 miles in San Francisco in 21 months and have not lost any capacity bars yet.
If the top capacity bar is 15%, appears you could lose the first capacity bar shortly.
Right?

 

[TomT]

Hey, at least you folks RECEIVED a survey... I got nothing...

 

[thankyouOB]

me also did not see the survey.

 

[TimLee]

My survey was in the att.net (yahoo) Spam folder on the server. Arrived Saturday, March 9, @ 14:19 EST.

 

[evnow]

You've driven 70,000 miles in San Francisco in 21 months and have not lost any capacity bars yet.

He is in the Seattle area.

 

[mwalsh]

You've driven 70,000 miles in San Francisco in 21 months and have not lost any capacity bars yet.

He is in the Seattle area.

That actually got me for a while too. It's not TaylorSFOGuy, and the SF in his username actually stands for "Sea Food".

 

[smkettner]

I have no survey but I would like to pay by the capacity bar of some sort.
So If I am at 6 bars and just want to pay for 10 I just pay maybe $250 per bar or $1,000.
If you can run it down to 2 bars and want brand new 12 $2,500 + small premium for fully new.
Just my 2 cents. Maybe $250 per bar is a bit low.

 

[FairwoodRed]

You've driven 70,000 miles in San Francisco in 21 months and have not lost any capacity bars yet.

He is in the Seattle area.

That actually got me for a while too. It's not TaylorSFOGuy, and the SF in his username actually stands for "Sea Food".

Closer, but still not right. It's Taylor ShellFish. And it got me too!

 

[TimLee]

He is in the Seattle area.

That actually got me for a while too. It's not TaylorSFOGuy, and the SF in his username actually stands for "Sea Food".

Closer, but still not right. It's Taylor ShellFish. And it got me too!

Thanks to everyone for the correction. Sorry about the error.
Does appear his slightly <15% degradation does fit well on Stoaty's excellent battery degradation model.
Amazing that anyone has managed to put 70,000 miles on a LEAF in 22 months. That's an average of 105 miles per day!!
I'm at the other end of the mileage use range, 12,000 miles in 22 months, average of 18 miles per day.
Both the high mileage and low mileage drivers have problems with dealing with battery degradation.
TaylorSFGuy has endured lots of cold driving, and must have a long commute that means he probably won't be able to use the vehicle very effectively below 80% capacity.
With my low mileage requirements, I have not had to endure cold driving.
But the age degradation of the battery is going to be problematic for me too.
If my degradation limit is 70%, the vehicle will only be good for 7 years, 45,000 miles.
I agree that most people will be unwilling to pay more than 1/3 to 1/2 of their savings for battery replacement.
For me that puts it in the range of $1800 to $2800.
I started the survey, answered the first question, hit the right arrow, and got the following response:

Thank you for taking the survey. Your response has been recorded.

I have requested that Nissan send me a retake survey link.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

You've driven 70,000 miles in San Francisco in 21 months and have not lost any capacity bars yet.

He is in the Seattle area.

That actually got me for a while too. It's not TaylorSFOGuy, and the SF in his username actually stands for "Sea Food".

funny. when i first saw the name i thought he was a 49'ers fan and John Taylor was his fave player from the 80's

 

[jayquinty]

Hmmm, I just lease a 2013 SL, and I was told by the sales person that I should expect to have a 30% loss in battery capacity in 10 years. Me thinks me been told a big fat lie!! I was all set to purchase and decided to lease because of uncertainty as to whether I'd get the full $7500 tax credit. Glad I leased, as it sounds like the bank's going to have to decide what to do about the battery in 36 months!! Love the car, BTW.

Jay

 

[TaylorSFGuy]

My user name came from the logo jackets I would wear to the Seattle Events. Before I registered here, I would hear "oh you are the Taylor Shellfish Guy". If it makes you feel better for guessing SFO, I did go to school there for my MBA. Leaf still going okay. I do like having QC units at about 50-55 miles. I am certainly hitting Fife on the way home now and depending on headwinds etc am using the one on the way to work in Tumwater.

Will post an update mid May at 2 years.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Nice to hear that it is still possible to make it on a charge. Nicer weather will kick the range back to comfotable.

Yesterday, i drove 82 miles (mostly 50-55 mph) and paid for charging the first time ever plugging into a blink L2 at my dr office.pulled inwith 9 GID. She gave just about all she had to give!

The weather being warm as it was is the only reason i was able to go that far

 

[WhiteBearLake]

I didn't care for the survey. I expected to be asked how much I would be willing to pay for a higher KWH battery replacement, but the survey never asked. I felt they asked the wrong questions.

I have a 2012 Leaf and I really like it. The car seems to be well made and I would not like to see it scrapped because replacing the battery pack is not ecomical. I leased my SL for $300 /month, 15K miles, nothing down, no tax, title, or license. It seems that most who replied to this thread are willing to spend more than I for a battery pack replacement. There were several replies indicating that $4000 would be an acceptable price. If my pack were down 20%, then $4000 fee would be for 20% of a battery pack. Would it then be reasonable to say that the entire pack has a value 5 times $4000, or $20,000? If a $4000 battery swap moved me from a 24KWH battery to a $36KWH battery, then I would probably buy my leased Leaf and go for the battery upgrade. I think more than anything else, Nissan is setting the value of a used Leaf when they set the price of a battery replacement and/or battery upgrade.

On a cold Minnesota winter day (-10F) I can only get about 50, possibly 55 miles from a full charge, driving 60MPH almost all the way, with the climate control off as much as I can tolerate. My daily commute to work is 45 miles. If Nissan wants me to keep my Leaf at the end of lease, they will have to provide an option to upgrade to a larger pack. I wish that the survey could have conveyed that information to Nissan.

I have had my Leaf for 7 months and have close to 11,000 miles. Hopefully when I am at 39 months, the battery technology will have improved and it will be economical to upgrade my battery pack, not just swap it.

My next vehicle will be electric too, but I want more driving range so I can do more than just commute back and forth to work.

 

[SalisburySam]

There was an article recently called "10 Things You Didn't Know About Electric Cars" at

http://energy.gov/articles/top-10-things-you-didn-t-know-about-electric-vehicles

Number 4 on the list:

4. The battery is one of the most expensive parts of an electric vehicle, but technological advances are making batteries less costly. Before 2009, a 100-mile range electric battery cost $33,000. Today it costs about $17,000, and it is projected to drop to $10,000 by the end of 2015.

I don't know how these costs were determined and they may have absolutely no bearing in any reality. However I get two impressions from the figures: that battery COSTS (not necessarily PRICE) are declining fairly rapidly, and that expectations of a <$10,000 battery replacement PRICE in the next few years are likely unwarranted.

 

[mwalsh]

^ They are already being sold for $10k - that's the full retail list price on the Focus EV replacement pack. So I'm going to tentatively call FUD on that particular part of the piece. Obviously we don't know what the Nissan replacement pack will cost, but some were thinking (hoping), myself included, that Nissan would initially sell them at cost, or even at a loss, to those early adopters in need of one.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

we still need to keep in mind that buying a pack outright is going to be much more expensive than getting your LEAF's pack replaced. So ya, $10,000 is probably in the ball park. But if I am trading in my 70% pack for a 100% pack, I dont expect to pay anywhere near that price. I also expect some consideration as an early adopter and the fact that I paid more for my LEAF than anyone else in the past 12 months has.

Am I wrong to feel that way? I am not a first timer anymore. I would be a "2nd Timer" if I am doing a battery purchase. So maybe $1000 loyality cash should be applied to this as well?