I don't really understand Nissan's Strategy

[smkettner]

Actually I don't think so. The problem of infrastructure isn't just money/cost, but scale. Again think of every gas station you see today. Now imagine if you needed something like 10x that capacity if all cars were electric (time to charge is roughly 10x for similar range). That is the fundamental problem. There is NO WAY any single company (or even groups of companies) can put the money/resources into that. You are taking for granted that there was a very large amount of profit incentive in traditional fuels that have paid for the infrastructure you see today.

Primary EV charging infrastructure is at home and it is already there. Any grid updates needed can be easily accommodated faster than EVs can be built.
I imagine the separate fueling station business will just fade away. Public charging will take place at existing parking lots or along highways.
People will primarily charge at home as the cost will be half for the foreseeable future.
JMHO.

 

[epirali]

Actually I don't think so. The problem of infrastructure isn't just money/cost, but scale. Again think of every gas station you see today. Now imagine if you needed something like 10x that capacity if all cars were electric (time to charge is roughly 10x for similar range). That is the fundamental problem. There is NO WAY any single company (or even groups of companies) can put the money/resources into that. You are taking for granted that there was a very large amount of profit incentive in traditional fuels that have paid for the infrastructure you see today.

Primary EV charging infrastructure is at home and it is already there. Any grid updates needed can be easily accommodated faster than EVs can be built.
I imagine the separate fueling station business will just fade away. Public charging will take place at existing parking lots or along highways.
People will primarily charge at home as the cost will be half for the foreseeable future.
JMHO.

I feel like I am repeating myself, and I apologize. But I think a lot of people are missing this point: majority of car owners DO NOT HAVE A GARAGE, specially in packed urban environments. The US suburban sprawl isn't what most people experience. In the US based I can find is around 60% with garages and car ports. Now keep in mind that in these homes most people have multiple cars, so you may need more than one charger. And apartment dwellers won't be able to use electric cars very well.

Take London as a perfect example: it is MADE for electric cars. You can drive around in a Leaf for days before recharging. But almost NO ONE has a garage or a dedicated parking spot, much less charging option.

This is part of why I say BEVs will be limited/capped in market penetration.

 

[forummm]

I think this problem--one of selling too many cars too quickly--is one that Tesla would love to have. They can throw some money at doubling or quadrupling infrastructure in limited areas if they need to. If they have tens of billions in sales, millions are a rounding error.

Actually I don't think so. The problem of infrastructure isn't just money/cost, but scale. Again think of every gas station you see today. Now imagine if you needed something like 10x that capacity if all cars were electric (time to charge is roughly 10x for similar range). That is the fundamental problem. There is NO WAY any single company (or even groups of companies) can put the money/resources into that. You are taking for granted that there was a very large amount of profit incentive in traditional fuels that have paid for the infrastructure you see today.

You need a lot of gas stations everywhere because gas is too dangerous and environmentally risky for everyone to have their own home refueling station. But every single home and business in the country has electricity already. I have 2 Leafs and I've never once charged anywhere besides my garage. I understand that this model doesn't work for all people in apartments right now. But the majority of people in the country live in single family homes or have a garage with access to utilities. That's still a very large market. And if EVs get super popular, apartment complexes will make accomodations in order to retain competitiveness in the marketplace. And charging stations will also get more popular too.

So we agree that Tesla's infrastructure is reasonably adequate for current demand, where they sell 30k cars per year. Well if they do hit their target of 500k cars per year, they can probably get away with only adding 4x capacity in certain areas. Totally scalable. Even 10x is scalable. Especially when there's an alternative right at your house that most people can use.

 

[forummm]

Actually I don't think so. The problem of infrastructure isn't just money/cost, but scale. Again think of every gas station you see today. Now imagine if you needed something like 10x that capacity if all cars were electric (time to charge is roughly 10x for similar range). That is the fundamental problem. There is NO WAY any single company (or even groups of companies) can put the money/resources into that. You are taking for granted that there was a very large amount of profit incentive in traditional fuels that have paid for the infrastructure you see today.

Primary EV charging infrastructure is at home and it is already there. Any grid updates needed can be easily accommodated faster than EVs can be built.
I imagine the separate fueling station business will just fade away. Public charging will take place at existing parking lots or along highways.
People will primarily charge at home as the cost will be half for the foreseeable future.
JMHO.

I feel like I am repeating myself, and I apologize. But I think a lot of people are missing this point: majority of car owners DO NOT HAVE A GARAGE, specially in packed urban environments. The US suburban sprawl isn't what most people experience. In the US based I can find is around 60% with garages and car ports. Now keep in mind that in these homes most people have multiple cars, so you may need more than one charger. And apartment dwellers won't be able to use electric cars very well.

Take London as a perfect example: it is MADE for electric cars. You can drive around in a Leaf for days before recharging. But almost NO ONE has a garage or a dedicated parking spot, much less charging option.

This is part of why I say BEVs will be limited/capped in market penetration.

If only 60% of people have garages, that's still > 180 million people. That's a pretty decent market. I have 2 Leafs and only 1 charging station. It works really well. If EVs get really popular, apartment buildings will transform their parking lots. Business will transform their parking lots. Gas stations will shift toward EVs. Any new industry spawns many new businesses to capitalize on the new market opportunities.

 

[epirali]

If only 60% of people have garages, that's still > 180 million people. That's a pretty decent market. I have 2 Leafs and only 1 charging station. It works really well. If EVs get really popular, apartment buildings will transform their parking lots. Business will transform their parking lots. Gas stations will shift toward EVs. Any new industry spawns many new businesses to capitalize on the new market opportunities.

As I was trying to say elsewhere I don't see the economic model for public charging working. I think it will be a real ceiling to EV adoption. I think even the idea of spending a few hundred dollars to install a home station is real show stopper for some (yes in reality it doesn't matter, but psychologically it does).

I am not saying EVs aren't catching on, I just think their ceiling is too low (this is a WILD guess, I'd say no more than 20% or cars).

 

[Zythryn]

I feel like I am repeating myself, and I apologize. But I think a lot of people are missing this point: majority of car owners DO NOT HAVE A GARAGE, specially in packed urban environments. The US suburban sprawl isn't what most people experience. In the US based I can find is around 60% with garages and car ports. Now keep in mind that in these homes most people have multiple cars, so you may need more than one charger. And apartment dwellers won't be able to use electric cars very well.

Take London as a perfect example: it is MADE for electric cars. You can drive around in a Leaf for days before recharging. But almost NO ONE has a garage or a dedicated parking spot, much less charging option.

This is part of why I say BEVs will be limited/capped in market penetration.

You seem to be painting this as an all or nothing proposition?
Because everyone can't charge at home nobody does??

There are more owners than renters (by a fairly small amount).
40% of those renters are renting... a single family home!

And while not everyone has a garage, a lot of people do.

Already, there are numerous apartment complexes that have installed car chargers. If I had to move into an apartment I would have no trouble finding one with a charger. And I don't live in California, this is in Minnesota.

Arguing that the present day infrastructure can't handle 100% electric cars just seems like looking for a problem that doesn't exist.
Plugin market share is about 1% this year. That would need to be 100% for 9 years before all cars are EVs (and that isn't going to happen).

The at home infrastructure is already in place for many people. For those people, public charging is of much smaller importance.
So if that limits the market share to 30% or 40%, so what?

 

[ishiyakazuo]

When it's cost effective, Nissan (and others) won't care about range too much.. Kind of like now with an ICE car, whether to have an 8 or 10 gallon gas tank. Not a major decision... But now, with the cost of batteries, that is a HUGE decision.

Let me just say that maybe 8 or 10 gallon tank is not a huge thing, but I went from a Hyundai Sonata as my ICE to a Honda Fit when I got the LEAF. Going from 16 gallons to 10 really sucks. Even though I rarely drive it, it seems like every time I do, I use half the tank. Really annoying.

Anyway, I think the biggest problem right now with BEVs is perception. Even if you have a 20-30 mile r/t commute, the perception of the "what-ifs" is strong. One of my friends told me the range wouldn't work for him during his daily commute (20 miles r/t!) because "well, what if I need to go out of my way and pick up something across town and it exceeds 70 miles?" "Go home and get your gas car first?" "That's a pain in the butt."
He owns his house, and could install his own EVSE no problem.

I think once we see reliably > 100 mile ranges on cars in the $30k range, that perception barrier will drop some.

 

[smkettner]

I feel like I am repeating myself, and I apologize. But I think a lot of people are missing this point: majority of car owners DO NOT HAVE A GARAGE, specially in packed urban environments. The US suburban sprawl isn't what most people experience. In the US based I can find is around 60% with garages and car ports. Now keep in mind that in these homes most people have multiple cars, so you may need more than one charger. And apartment dwellers won't be able to use electric cars very well.

Take London as a perfect example: it is MADE for electric cars. You can drive around in a Leaf for days before recharging. But almost NO ONE has a garage or a dedicated parking spot, much less charging option.

This is part of why I say BEVs will be limited/capped in market penetration.

I only manage 11 units and I am still waiting for a charging station request.

You are correct that at some point there may need to be legislation similar to solar where a condo owner must be allowed to install a charging station, landlords may be required to install upon request, likewise employers may be required to have charging available. Yes the fees might need to be regulated. Possibly the utility would be required to install stations and sell direct. Going to be some growing pains and again IMHO this will happen naturally as market penetration increases.

As far as Nissan's strategy... they have planted the seed by providing a car and some charging stations at dealers. Can't see Nissan going much further unless sales really take off.

 

[tkdbrusco]

If market saturation gets big enough, even in cities where people don't have garages, the cars will be successful. #1 Range will increase as will speed of charging. #2 Employers will start offering charging capabilities to entice people. #3 Public charging stations will boom in cities to adjust for demand.

 

[mjblazin]

I doubt employers will really get into managing charging stations. Too many potential conflicts. I expect garages could with significant penalties for overstaying. Shopping malls, bars, anywhere cars stay more than a few hours. I would be leery of shared condo spots. Again, the potential for conflict is just too big. I do like the the idea of making possible for condo owner to install own station if parking area has reserved spaces.

The one truism is that absolutely nothing will be free. You will pay by time in the space and KWh used, either on your home account or per visit.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

I am very grateful to Nissan for give me a chance to drive affordable EV, however EV acceptance by general public still not here, and probably for quite some time. Leaf is one of many Nissan offering and account for 1 to 1.5% of total sales. For Nissan, Leaf in niche product, and it won't be very wise financial decision to invest so much money in charging infrastructure. Of course it will be great to have as many QC as we have gas stations, but this is not going to happen, and Nissan is not going to invest so much money in something that is not yet profitable, and huge success. I am completely comfortable with EV being another option for local personal transportation, and not necessarily used for long distance travel. It is personal preference, but for me for my long distance travel I use car with 600 mile range, and use my 250 mile range car for local trips.
It is sad, by time modified my 2011 EV enthusiasm https://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/1_million_electric_vehicles_rpt.pdf

 

[epirali]

I feel like I am repeating myself, and I apologize. But I think a lot of people are missing this point: majority of car owners DO NOT HAVE A GARAGE, specially in packed urban environments. The US suburban sprawl isn't what most people experience. In the US based I can find is around 60% with garages and car ports. Now keep in mind that in these homes most people have multiple cars, so you may need more than one charger. And apartment dwellers won't be able to use electric cars very well.

Take London as a perfect example: it is MADE for electric cars. You can drive around in a Leaf for days before recharging. But almost NO ONE has a garage or a dedicated parking spot, much less charging option.

This is part of why I say BEVs will be limited/capped in market penetration.

You seem to be painting this as an all or nothing proposition?
Because everyone can't charge at home nobody does??

There are more owners than renters (by a fairly small amount).
40% of those renters are renting... a single family home!

And while not everyone has a garage, a lot of people do.

Already, there are numerous apartment complexes that have installed car chargers. If I had to move into an apartment I would have no trouble finding one with a charger. And I don't live in California, this is in Minnesota.

Arguing that the present day infrastructure can't handle 100% electric cars just seems like looking for a problem that doesn't exist.
Plugin market share is about 1% this year. That would need to be 100% for 9 years before all cars are EVs (and that isn't going to happen).

The at home infrastructure is already in place for many people. For those people, public charging is of much smaller importance.
So if that limits the market share to 30% or 40%, so what?

I actually am not at all making this all or nothing, I feel a lot of other people are. I think there is a very healthy slice for BEVs, specially for commute and cities. But I am saying there is a ceiling. And it is lower than I think we need. Other sources (like hydrogen) can cover another segment. So not all or nothing, I say EVERYTHING.

 

[BernieTx]

Take London as a perfect example: it is MADE for electric cars. You can drive around in a Leaf for days before recharging. But almost NO ONE has a garage or a dedicated parking spot, much less charging option.

This is part of why I say BEVs will be limited/capped in market penetration.

....
The at home infrastructure is already in place for many people. For those people, public charging is of much smaller importance.
So if that limits the market share to 30% or 40%, so what?

I actually am not at all making this all or nothing, I feel a lot of other people are. I think there is a very healthy slice for BEVs, specially for commute and cities. But I am saying there is a ceiling. And it is lower than I think we need. Other sources (like hydrogen) can cover another segment. So not all or nothing, I say EVERYTHING.

Charging at home overnight is really convenient and easy, and is one of the nicest things about owning an EV. No gasoline trips, no worries. Shared public charging isn't nearly as convenient makes the EV much less attractive. If you're a Leaf owner living in an apartment without an overnight charging spot, then you probably need an all day charging spot instead. Otherwise you have no choice but to deal with public charging several times a week, and that seems like even more trouble than buying gasoline. Some apartment dwellers with access to fast chargers, will buy an EV anyway. But they've traded the inconvenience of filling their gas tank with the bigger inconvenience of public charging.

 

[TomT]

Yep, unless you are driving a Tesla, it just makes me cringe and I try to avoid it like the plague unless I absolutely must charge.

Shared public charging isn't nearly as convenient makes the EV much less attractive.

 

[eloder]

Ah, the old argument about condo dwellers, apartment dwellers, and so on being unable to charge.

Charging infrastructure only requires two things: One, a parking space. Two, electricity. Literally every street and parking garage in America has #1 and #2 already. Adding outlets for lvl1 charging will be simple and super cheap.

While EVs will be mass adopted by those with garages and carports first, the free market is going to quickly change the nature of being able to charge.

Here's a few reasons why:
1) With longer-range EV batteries, charging speed becomes far less important for local trips. Lvl1 charging is suitable to cover far more than the average American's commute when charged overnight--lvl2 is only needed for current EVs because range is so tiny. Add in workplace charging and that's even more true. Lvl1 charging infrastructure is already everywhere--unless you park in a parking garage with zero lights, or on a street with zero streetlamps. There will be lvl3 charging to supplement lvl1 charging as needed (i.e., someone has to drive 150 miles several days in a row, rather than a normal 50 mile daily commute), but people will prefer the lvl1 charging because it'll work for most days.

2) The younger a person is, the more likely they'll want an EV. Oh hey, this is also the primary apartment-dwelling crowd! Just like how pools, amenities, and so on are becoming norms for middle class renters (those who can afford a 200+ mile range EV in the next decade), apartments will be installing lvl1 charging to help attract renters. Lvl1 charging will cost them practically nothing, so it's very nice and free advertising.

I offered to pay my landlord to install a public lvl2 charger in our parking lot off-street as well as pay for electricity costs. The landlord declined. What happened? I moved less than six months later to a condo that has charging capabilities. That landlord specifically lost one person because they lacked charging (or in this case, refused getting a free charger); a condo association gained a purchase simply because they were charging-friendly.

By the time EVs are cheap enough for the lower middle class (the very low cost renters), the effects of the above two points will likely have driven demand up enough for widespread on-street charging. I wouldn't be surprised to see cities start including lvl1 infrastructure with the next schedule major road/sidewalk revamps in core areas or integrated with parking meters. Similar to how new apartment complexes in California are popping up with charging capabilities already installed (RIDICULOUSLY cheap to do this for lvl1 charging on a new build), you may very well see cities following suite within 10-20 years.

Some cities like Philadelphia even have an ingenious plan for implementing these--in some cities they're running pilot programs where private citizens can pay for a lvl2 charging station on public street parking. The station and spot does not belong to you, but it's marked as EV only. While such a program would start only with the wealthy upper middle class folk, it would definitely help increase infrastructure and demand for EVs and EV charging as it's a self-reinforcing circle.

 

[RonDawg]

What it would NOT solve is the problem of your neighbor who wants to drive to San Francisco, rather than Disneyland. For that drive you need a couple of rural quick chargers on the I5.

Nissan has never intended the Leaf to replace 100% of your driving needs. Most of the EV manufacturers don't with their battery electrics. Tesla is the only one.

Even if someone comes up with an affordable BEV with a realistic 200 mile range, most people don't want to sit there for a half-hour or an hour to quick charge the battery. Gassing up only takes a few minutes so one pump can service a lot of people per hour. You'd need a LOT of QC stations to service the same number of people per hour simply because of the wait time involved.

My personal take is that the pure electric car will not fully replace ICEVs in the next 50 years. I think plug-in hybrids and BEVs with range-extender options becoming the majority of vehicles will be as close as we get to that.

 

[Zythryn]

...
Even if someone comes up with an affordable BEV with a realistic 200 mile range, most people don't want to sit there for a half-hour or an hour to quick charge the battery. Gassing up only takes a few minutes so one pump can service a lot of people per hour. You'd need a LOT of QC stations to service the same number of people per hour simply because of the wait time involved.
...

You will never need to service the same number of cars.
Even if not everyone can charge at work or home, many can.
And for daily trips, charging is not needed.

Currently, the gas stations are used by apartment dwellers, single family home dwellers, condo dwellers, etc.
Even if 100% of cars were EVs, you would need charging stations for at the very most, half of people and more likely 1/4.

 

[RonDawg]

...
Even if someone comes up with an affordable BEV with a realistic 200 mile range, most people don't want to sit there for a half-hour or an hour to quick charge the battery. Gassing up only takes a few minutes so one pump can service a lot of people per hour. You'd need a LOT of QC stations to service the same number of people per hour simply because of the wait time involved.
...

You will never need to service the same number of cars.
Even if not everyone can charge at work or home, many can.
And for daily trips, charging is not needed.

Currently, the gas stations are used by apartment dwellers, single family home dwellers, condo dwellers, etc.
Even if 100% of cars were EVs, you would need charging stations for at the very most, half of people and more likely 1/4.

I'm not talking about daily usage, in which home charging is the overwhelming choice. I'm talking about what the OP thinks Nissan should be doing, and that is the Tesla strategy of promoting EV sales by putting in charging stations in remote areas to promote cross-country capability (thus making it feasible to completely ditch ICEVs). In such a case, you will need to service the same number of cars per hour as presently, because under the OP's ideal, those folks would have gone all-electric instead of reverting to a pure ICEV or hybrid for such a long distance trip.

The scenario you speak of is what Nissan and everybody else (except for Tesla) thinks pure electrics should be deployed, as a daily commuter vehicle.

 

[TomHuffman]

I feel like I am repeating myself, and I apologize. But I think a lot of people are missing this point: majority of car owners DO NOT HAVE A GARAGE, specially in packed urban environments. The US suburban sprawl isn't what most people experience. In the US based I can find is around 60% with garages and car ports. Now keep in mind that in these homes most people have multiple cars, so you may need more than one charger. And apartment dwellers won't be able to use electric cars very well.

Take London as a perfect example: it is MADE for electric cars. You can drive around in a Leaf for days before recharging. But almost NO ONE has a garage or a dedicated parking spot, much less charging option.

This is part of why I say BEVs will be limited/capped in market penetration.

I have actually given this a lot of thought because I want to someday move back to the Rockville, MD area. I used to live there in an apartment and believed that an electric car was impractical because I lacked a garage. However, with a Bolt, Gen 2 Leaf, or Tesla III--which can each hold about a week's worth of commuting range in their battery and the existence in Rockville of a fast DC charger, all I would have to do is visit that charger once a week for 30-45 minutes. As it happens the charger is located right next to a great chile restaurant, which means I can have lunch while I charge.

The bottom line is that I no longer see apartment dwelling an impediment to EV ownership, so long as a local DC charger is available.

 

[TomHuffman]

Leaf is one of many Nissan offering and account for 1 to 1.5% of total sales. For Nissan, Leaf in niche product, and it won't be very wise financial decision to invest so much money in charging infrastructure. Of course it will be great to have as many QC as we have gas stations, but this is not going to happen, and Nissan is not going to invest so much money in something that is not yet profitable, and huge success.

This is a chicken-and-egg problem. One of the main reasons that EVs don't sell better is because of the lack of a charging infrastructure. If Nissan refuses to contribute to that infrastructure then their electric cars will always be a small, niche offering. Also, the amount of money required for a nationwide DC charging system is not that large. I estimate about $20 million (400 $50K stations). This is not a lot of money for an multinational car company like Nissan. For example, GM is going to end up paying out over $100 million just to settle lawsuits for their defective ignition systems. Finally, if Tesla is able to do this, and it is a vastly smaller company, then why can't Nissan? The only reason I can think of is what another poster suggested at the beginning of this thread, which is they don't really want EVs to succeed because they are too invested in the current ICE economy.