Gasoline May Rise Above $5 a Gallon

[Nubo]

Back on topic:

By Barani Krishnan

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global oil markets sold off again on Wednesday after a one-day pause as large build in U.S. crude stockpiles surprised investors who had expected a draw, adding to worries about a supply glut that has battered prices for six months.

U.S. crude inventories in the United States rose by 7.3 million barrels last week to their highest December level on record, the Energy Information Administration reported. Analysts had expected a drop of 2.3 million barrels.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Costco $2.279 another 17 cent drop. Keep in mind; using my Amex M means another 3% cash back!
Nice but still no where near my LEAFs cost

 

[mwalsh]

GRA, I hope you aren't changing your oil only every 2-3 years! That would be pretty bad. :shock:

Looks like we're on track to make 2 years in our Volt without an oil change. We're at 35% oil life after 16 months.

Of course, it somewhat bothers me that only 1,000 miles on the engine equals 65% of the oil's life gone, according to GM math?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

^^^ it's like a McDonalds fryer, fresh oil every two years whether it needs it or not

 

[GRA]

OTOH, you've bought at least three new cars just while I've been following this board since 8/2011, including a second LEAF to replace the one you bought just a few years ago. So you tell me, which of us is better able to predict the long-term viability and durability of our cars?

you are using your personal experience to comment on the viability of cars for others or did I get that wrong?
if I did, then my comments were not meant for you.

I'm using my and many other people's experience of properly maintaining their cars and not driving them like they stole them to show that cars (especially here in California, where rustout isn't an issue) can easily last two decades without tipping over into maintenance nightmares, provided that you do your homework first and buy a car that is unlikely to be unreliable _by design_, i.e. nothing that CR rates as below or much below average. And it's also an excellent idea to stay away from any car that has just undergone a generational change, until a year or two later when they've discovered all the things that get worn faster than they thought they would, and (hopefully) fixed or re-designed them. You can cheat on this sometimes - my Forester was the first year of that generation, but the powertrain and electrical systems were unchanged from the previous generation so I wasn't worried about any really expensive unknown issues cropping up in critical systems.

But generally, people don't drive their cars 5,000 miles a year or map out their maintenance years in advance. IOW; people d not exhibit the level of common sense you do. they need a much more "no brainer" solution.

Dave, until I moved where I now live I didn't drive 5k miles a year either, and drove the typical 12-15k/year like most people. Still never had any problems making a car last a couple of decades unless it was a lemon from the get go; my dad's '76 Peugeot 504 Diesel, although rated much better than average by CR, must have been a Monday or Friday car, or maybe he just lost the lottery. Whatever the reason, from the time that car was 2 years old something semi-expensive would go wrong with it every year, until it was finally totaled in '87. AAA offered my dad something like 2,400 for it, and I told him to take the money and run, because before it was hit large quantities water had started to disappear on a daily basis. It wasn't leaking out, and I figured he had a cracked block. And then there was his '61 Corvair, a 'bucket of bolts' which he claimed (with some exaggeration, I believe, but at the time I was a bit too young to be aware of it) spent more time in the shop than on the street, until the Impala replaced it. This was long before lemon laws.

As for mapping out maintenance years in advance, I have no idea what you're talking about. My owner's manual specifies service intervals, typically at multiples of 7,500 miles (or a time period). When one rolls around I check the manual if I don't know what needs to be done, and then make an appointment with my mechanic and get it done if it's something I don't want to mess with. He worked at the dealer where I bought my '88, then went out on his own. He doesn't play games, tells me when it's okay to let stuff wait or if it needs to be done soon or now, what parts will likely fail down the road and which ones are bulletproof, and charges far less than the dealer. He's been doing all the major maintenance on my Subies since 1990.

now if we get back to reason I made my statement it is because you "seem" to claim that an old car is just as reliable as the day it was born and I said BS. I stand by that. you may have been driving 37 years without an unexpected breakdown but don't even tell me that is typical ok? cause i been driving longer than you and ya, its nice to have the money to take care of business and all that but let me assure you, you are the minority and a shrinking minority at that.

Ah, now we see the source of the misunderstanding. You need to re-read what I wrote. "And as my sole car, my 12 year old Forester retains the same ability to take me on _every_ trip that I originally bought it for." Simple statement of fact. I bought it specifically for road trips, especially backpacking and X-C ski trips hauling people and gear (scuba diving came later, but it's worked just fine for that too) and required that I be able to sleep in it - I will be doing both next month, on the same ski trip I've been making pretty much every late December - early January since 1980. And all four other cars that I've used to make that same drive could do so as long as they were still drivable, which is something that can't be said for any BEV with a degraded battery.

so again; I will ask you...no, actually I won't ask you because you have an answer for everything. But I still think that most people would rather have a car that tells them when they need to do something instead of something that simply decides one day to not go

Seems to me we've had reports here and on other forums of EVs that have had dead batteries or various other ailments but the car didn't tell anyone about it. But sure, AOTBE I'm all for a car that communicates when it's having problems. BEVs are hardly unique in that area, and their highly variable range depending on conditions imposes far more stress and mental exertion than most people are willing to put up with, at least until their ranges increase by several multiples. Even Tesla S range varies significantly with climate, but they've got a big enough battery that it's less of an issue. Definitely a long way from being as non-issue yet, though.

as far as your "3 new cars" comment, you really need to elaborate on that one...

Haven't you bought/leased two LEAFs plus at least one ICE (Corolla?) in that time, not counting the Yaris for your wife?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

GRA, I hope you aren't changing your oil only every 2-3 years! That would be pretty bad. :shock:

Looks like we're on track to make 2 years in our Volt without an oil change. We're at 35% oil life after 16 months.

Of course, it somewhat bothers me that only 1,000 miles on the engine equals 65% of the oil's life gone, according to GM math?

Ah Michael, you gotta know miles mean next to nothing. My Dad worked in Greenland and they had vehicles running 24/7 (if they were turned off, the block would have frozen solid within hours) for 2 years and the oil came out looking like new. so that myth that idling is what dirties your oil is exactly that, a myth. These trucks were built in the early 60's so they had no optimized computer controlled fuel injection or nothing like that. just carburetors plugging away at idle speed an average of 21 hours a day for over 700 consecutive days.


GRA; the reason I leased is not due to expected degradation more than the range of a new LEAF was something I simply could not buy. The Corolla was purchased for two reasons; the main one was to run parallel cost analysis between gas, optimized gas and electric. I could have simply used a company car for longer trips but I would have not had control of gasoline input or mileage recordings, etc.

The Yaris was purchased because SO had totaled my 2010 Prius (she rear ended someone and for a time, we had hopes of possibly getting it removed from her record due to braking system recalls for model but we simply did not know about the recall at the time of the accident and there were several steps we failed to take. I was VIN # 222 delivered May 7, 2009) and I simply decided (since she was making more money than me at the time) it was time SHE bought a car (a decision I still regret...)

And again, there are a lot of people who successful drive cars for decades with nothing more than basic maintenance but I can assure you, you are the HUGE minority. Most of the people I know (including EVERYONE in the car business) won't drive a car much older than 7-10 years old due to reliability issues. My sister said once; "I miss a day of work, it could easily cost me $1000. It aint worth the risk of driving a car that has even a small risk of failure"

 

[AndyH]

GRA, I hope you aren't changing your oil only every 2-3 years! That would be pretty bad. :shock:

Looks like we're on track to make 2 years in our Volt without an oil change. We're at 35% oil life after 16 months.

Of course, it somewhat bothers me that only 1,000 miles on the engine equals 65% of the oil's life gone, according to GM math?

Engine oil is made of about 80% 'base oil' and about 20% additives. The base oil provides most of the hydraulic parts separation function. The additives deal with contaminants from combustion. For example - burn a gallon of gasoline and you liberate about a gallon of water. Most of that goes out the tailpipe, but some ends up in the oil. Water is also condensed inside a sitting engine as it 'breathes' ambient air (inhales as it cools; exhales when hot). A number of different acids form inside the engine from combustion by-products. The oil's additive package has antioxidants, acid neutralizers, rust and corrosion inhibitors, and extreme pressure anti-wear additives. The acid neutralizers and corrosion inhibitors are primary components of the additive package and they are depleted in time whether the engine is operated or not.

If changing engine oil based on a mechanical process, it must be changed based on mileage OR time, whichever comes first. If using oil analysis, look first at the 'total base number' as that is a measure of the reserve acid neutralizing capability in the oil's additive package - when the TBN drops to 2, change the oil (usually starts around 6-8 for a gasoline engine oil and 8-14 for a diesel engine oil).

TLR Oil will degrade based on both time and mileage and it will lose 'life' when the car's sitting.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

^^^^^^
What he said. Should never go more than a year between changes

 

[AndyH]

GRA, I hope you aren't changing your oil only every 2-3 years! That would be pretty bad. :shock:

Looks like we're on track to make 2 years in our Volt without an oil change. We're at 35% oil life after 16 months.

Of course, it somewhat bothers me that only 1,000 miles on the engine equals 65% of the oil's life gone, according to GM math?

Ah Michael, you gotta know miles mean next to nothing. My Dad worked in Greenland and they had vehicles running 24/7 (if they were turned off, the block would have frozen solid within hours) for 2 years and the oil came out looking like new. so that myth that idling is what dirties your oil is exactly that, a myth. These trucks were built in the early 60's so they had no optimized computer controlled fuel injection or nothing like that. just carburetors plugging away at idle speed an average of 21 hours a day for over 700 consecutive days.

There's myth here, that's for sure. Engine oil that is functioning properly will 'look' darker as time goes on, as part of it's function is to suspend contaminants that are too small to damage bearings. Without dispersants, contaminants (like highly abrasive nano-scale carbon granules formed by burning gas and diesel) would agglomerate until particles can damage bearing surfaces and/or clog oil passages.

An engine with a properly functioning fuel system at a steady speed doesn't require computer controls for an efficient burn. Computer controls were put in place to control cold starts and to allow for decent efficiency when the human dances all over the pedals. An engine idling for 21 hours a day should have very clean 'looking' oil.

his statement is a bald faced _ _ _. PERIOD. what person can truly believe a 12 year old car in ANY CONDITION is just as reliable as a new car?

Nope. Not a lie. And not at ALL about "belief" - and that's really important. Age is irrelevant - maintenance is everything. Here's a somewhat extreme looking but on-target example. Most of the general aviation fleet is made of very old airplanes. You might balk at 'risking your life' in a Cessna assembled in 1958 - but once you realize that the entire airplane gets a through annual inspection (and if in commercial service has 25, 50, and 100 hour inspections); regularly has pulleys, cables, and wear surfaces replaced; and is a well understood system, you might change your mind.

Those of us that maintain our own vehicles and take the time to learn their quirks don't believe they're ready for anything - we KNOW.

and again, glad you have had great success with every car you have ever owned and yes it partly mechanical skills (which MOST of us do not have) following a maintenance plan which MOST of us don't do but should and still a lot of luck so you KNOW that any statement that involves XXX miles which is nearly all freeway is about as effective as someone driving 75,000 miles in their typical stop and go rush hour traffic commute right?

You don't have any idea what my or Guy's daily average mileage is/was, but you're ok assuming? Sorry. Yes, highway mileage CAN be easier. But keep in mind that when my Passat wagon was on the road, it was often running 1000 lbs over gross weight. With seats folded down, I could roll three 30 gallon drums of oil in the back, pack 12-quart cases all around and in the front seat, and cruise. That's not the same service as a soccer mom tossing two toddlers in the back and driving 400 miles.

The 'maintenance plan' I followed was the standard severe service inspection process that about 80% of American drivers should be performing. Severe service trips when a driver takes multiple short trips, and/or operates in hot or cold weather, and/or has ANY external bits on the car (roof-top box, trailer, bikes on the tail), and/or operates in a dusty/dirty environment, for a few examples.

When you say "follow a maintenance plan which MOST of us don't do" what you're saying is that the 'normal' driver cannot trust their vehicle after some arbitrary milestone (100,000 miles or 5 years or...) because they abuse their vehicles and do not perform basic functions to ensure their safety. That's fine - I'll agree with that! I wouldn't trust a vehicle that I know to have been neglected and/or abused, either! But that has absolutely zero to do with Guy's position.

 

[AndyH]

^^^^^^
What he said. Should never go more than a year between changes

Sorry Dave...that's not at ALL what I said.

Lubricants are built do different performance specifications. One year might be too long for some products and only half capability for others.

Engine wear spikes in the ~2000 miles after an oil change - so it's bad to change it too often. But most shops rely on ignorant consumers for much of their cash flow, so let's level the playing field a bit...

For the Volt, and for any other vehicle with an oil life monitor: If one wants to use the monitor, then make sure they use an oil that meets the minimum required performance specification for the oil (like the API SM rating for the harmonized US/Japanese specs, or the ACEA rating for Euro oils) [check the owners or service manual, or look for under-hood stickers - I don't know what specification the Volt's monitor was calibrated against] as that is what the oil life monitor is calibrated around. Then change the oil when the monitor says it's time. Doing it sooner wastes oil, time, and money.

 

[Nubo]

Engine wear spikes in the ~2000 miles after an oil change

I didn't know that. What is the mechanism? The initial dry-start before the new oil fills and pressurizes?

 

[AndyH]

Engine wear spikes in the ~2000 miles after an oil change

I didn't know that. What is the mechanism? The initial dry-start before the new oil fills and pressurizes?

It appears that it's primarily interplay between two other portions of the additive package - the anti-wear/extreme pressure components and detergents. The fresh detergents remove some of the previous additives that coat wear surfaces, and it takes some time for the new oil change's anti-wear additives to replace the protective layer. The more complex answer includes the point that many of the additives are heat and/or pressure activated, and that additive package decomposition products are also used to form a protective layer. It can take up to about 2000 miles for many of the heat/pressure activated additives to build up protective layers on parts, and up to 5000 miles for the decomposition products to become strong enough to do their jobs.

Protip: if you're going for a long service life for the oil or the equipment, never mix oil brands or types (don't fill with 'regular' then top with 'high mileage' or some such) as the different additive chemistry will react to each other (oil 'A' dispersants will be consumed binding oil 'B's anti-wear compounds) - and while that war of attrition is going on, the engine's not as well protected.

This is a link to an example SAE paper that shows post-oil change wear patterns. There are a number of others that support the findings, but they were focused on high-performance filtration systems and the reduction of soot in engine oil.
http://papers.sae.org/2003-01-3119/

Here's one of the ways wear is tracked - radiation 'for the win':
http://www.swri.org/3pubs/ttoday/spring98/trace.htm

To compare/contrast what we in the US typically believe with what's being done in Europe, here's a piece from a US reliability publisher that communicates the 3000 mile oil change myth while also describing the GM oil monitoring system:
http://www.machinerylubrication.com/Read/77/gm's-oil-life-system-improves-timing-of-oil-change
https://www.dropbox.com/s/516773zis1rf0hy/McFall_LNG_Drain_Intervals_How_Long_Must_We_Wait.pdf?dl=0

Here are a couple of pieces from Europe where 50,000 km or 2 year oil changes are routine:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ekb8wd82e1070o/Frontiers_magazine_issue_3_Keep_on_running.pdf?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/efoz0c6yu7pr6ub/Opel.pdf?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6fcccyhwul4qmdz/BP.pdf?dl=0

I know this is starting to look OT, but as you can see from the Euro articles, better quality fluids save fuel, reduce wear, reduce lube oil use, and result in cleaner emissions.

 

[abasile]

All of this discussion on ICE maintenance reminds me once more of my appreciation for BEVs and their relative simplicity. While I agree that a well maintained ICE can provide many, many years of service, I'd rather not have to bother. It'll be interesting to see how well the current Tesla S batteries hold up over the next ten years. If BEV batteries can last for more than a decade, preferably 15+ years, then the ease of ownership will be quite good indeed.

 

[TimLee]

I know this is starting to look OT, but as you can see from the Euro articles, better quality fluids save fuel, reduce wear, reduce lube oil use, and result in cleaner emissions.

Definitely quite a few miles OT.
But as usual, well researched.

The US is really poorly regulated.
Allowed the labeling as synthetic oil that was basically highly processed non-synthetic.
Somewhat true synthetic is now "advanced".
No wonder a large % of people in the US are unable to properly maintain their ICE

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

sounds like we ONLY need to know how the Volt has determined the remaining life of the oil in its crankcase.

now we can think that the Volt has some super secret sensor that has tested the oil on a regular basis to confirm the oil's protective features are still intact.

the other thought is simply an formula based on engine running time. IOW; a one size fits all solution.

or we could have a system that tracks ambient conditions for humidity, pressure, etc. so it would have a good idea of how much moisture has been taken up by the system.

anyone know how the Volt knows when its time to change?

 

[JeremyW]

the other thought is simply an formula based on engine running time.

My old BMW had a "one sized fits all" based on fuel consumption. The harder you drove (or city conditions), the more fuel consumed, and the more wear placed on the engine/oil. Seemed reasonable, at least at the time. Non-engine-oil related failure killed mine (drivers seat, clutch, and catalytic converter went around the same time).

 

[epic]

gas was $1.82 today 12-28-14

 

[AndyH]

sounds like we ONLY need to know how the Volt has determined the remaining life of the oil in its crankcase.

now we can think that the Volt has some super secret sensor that has tested the oil on a regular basis to confirm the oil's protective features are still intact.

the other thought is simply an formula based on engine running time. IOW; a one size fits all solution.

or we could have a system that tracks ambient conditions for humidity, pressure, etc. so it would have a good idea of how much moisture has been taken up by the system.

anyone know how the Volt knows when its time to change?

The second article I linked talks about the GM oil life monitor. It does a credible job of summarizing the SAE papers published about how the system was developed.
http://www.machinerylubrication.com/Read/77/gm's-oil-life-system-improves-timing-of-oil-change

The GM monitor doesn't directly measure or test the condition of the oil - it monitors temperatures, run time, throttle position, and other parameters and consults the 'look up table' for an oil life estimate. The table was populated from a bunch of driving and a larger bunch of oil samples. For most GM cars, the 'oil life guess-o-meter' is calibrated against commodity grade US petroleum-based oil. The Corvettes used to ship with Mobil 1 synthetic - the monitor was calibrated against that. I don't know what the Volt's factory-fill is. (It appears to be at least hydrocracked petroleum that meets a GM Dexos spec. There also appears to be a mandatory oil change at 24 months even if the oil life monitor says there's life left in the oil...)

Mercedes and other Euro vehicles have sensors in the oil as well as the database. When one adds oil to a Sprinter, the time/mileage to the next oil change will increase. That system is calibrated against upper tier 'real' synthetic oil (PAO/ester, not hydrocracked petroleum) built to one of the MB 225.x specifications. The company had an expensive problem when their extended oil life vehicles arrived in North America - owners and garages filled them will Castrol or Delvac petroleum...many engines failed before the oil life monitor started to scream...
http://www.imakenews.com/eletra/mod_print_view.cfm?this_id=146166&u=lng&issue_id=000031147

BEVs aren't immune as they still have lubricants in their gearboxes. I wonder how much winter range would decrease if the synthetic 0W-10 equivalent Nissan gear lube was replaced with typical American 80W-90 petroleum? :shock:

(Get familiar with your owners manual...though I'm confident my responses are in the ballpark, they're still subject to the memory of a former commercial high performance synthetic oil jobber...your mileage may vary...)

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Diesel fuel is nearly a dollar more per gallon than gas. The low gas prices must be on account of higher efficiency cars and people getting EVs.

 

[dhanson865]

gas was $1.82 today 12-28-14

about $2.20 here, you can get it for 5-10 cents cheaper with membership cards but I don't bother with those games. My usual gas station is more expensive but they sell 100% gas.