2014 June Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2347, Total 11893

[HeyHey]

I think it's noteworthy that prototype of PHEV (Volt) was overtaken by the Ford Fusion Energi. I would be much more likely to buy the Fusion over the Volt because of size and styling. It looks like other people think the same thing.

 

[evnow]

The i3 was late to he party, that's all.
The Leaf got the first wave of early adopters and has established itself.
The i3 is looking at the tail end of the early adopters and is not shipping in very large numbers yet nationwide.

It does have less utility than the Leaf, and I don't expect it to ever surpass the Leaf in annual sales.
However, it is more fun to drive, and actually would be my 2nd choice for a car if the range was sufficient for our driving habits.

i3 simply doesn't have enough differentiation from Leaf to charge $10k more (same range). And it has less utility - and works for fewer people. But, it has REx option.

Compared to Volt it has less utility in the sense of not having a fully capable ICE and a tiny gas tank. But it has longer EV range.

If BMW didn't make the unforced errors (4 seats, suicide doors etc) - they could have taken a sizeable chunk out of both Volt & Leaf markets.

 

[adric22]

I think it's noteworthy that prototype of PHEV (Volt) was overtaken by the Ford Fusion Energi. I would be much more likely to buy the Fusion over the Volt because of size and styling. It looks like other people think the same thing.

The Volt is a vastly superior car, and can be purchased for less money (since it gets a larger tax credit). The difference as to why one is selling better than another can easily be explained by a trip down the street to look at two car dealers. Our local Ford Dealer has many of these in stock on their lot, an open charging station in the front, and advertising about the cars, as well as one on the showroom floor. The Chevy Dealer sitting next to them has 1 Volt hidden way in the back like they are ashamed of it.

 

[lorenfb]

"Tesla doesn't need any one area to be a 'savior' as you put it.
They are selling worldwide and are production limited. If they can build 30k, they can sell 30k."

Hard to believe since:
1. They 'scammed' the finance market and floated $2B for the Giga plant, which Tesla has yet selected the
location, that can be used for added production.
2. The Fremont plant is less than 50% utilized.
3. If production limited, how's the so-called model 'X' to be produced in volume in Q1 2015?

Based on these data (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false, Tesla needs about
3600 units from ROW or about 3000 less Norway.

Too many believers of the Morgan Stanley (probably made at least 2% of the $2B float - $40M) hyperbole!

 

[DanCar]

I prefer the fusion because it has more space.

 

[DanCar]

I prefer the fusion because it has more space.

 

[apvbguy]

They are selling worldwide and are production limited. If they can build 30k, they can sell 30k.

that's a very bold comment, a car with an average cost of 90k+ isn't all that easy to sell, there are just so many who can afford to buy a TESLA

 

[GRA]

The Volt has national competition, and the LEAF still doesn't. Once it does I expect LEAF numbers will drop as the competition takes away sales, but total sub-$40k BEV sales will continue to rise.

I think it will depend on the manufacturers commitment to BEVs. The Ford Focus Electric is available nationally, is 35K before state, federal and manufacturer incentives and, I would argue, a better looking car than the Leaf. Yet it sells 10X less. Why? Ford's (and Ford dealer's) commitment to EVs. If Ford had the same commitment as Nissan - in-house production, incremental improvements, driving the price down - the FFE would see the same growth curve as the Leaf. You might be able to make the same argument with about the iMiev.
I just hope that Nissan hits it out of the park with Leaf 2.0 so they can maintain the market leadership position.

Ford has plenty of commitment to PEVs, just not to BEVs, because unlike PHEVs they don't think they meet the needs of mainstream consumers yet, at an acceptable price. I agree. They've said from the start that they weren't going to sell FFEs at a loss. Yes, the FFE is available nationally, but it's not advertised, and Ford has done exactly nothing to promote them.

Once battery costs come down to the point where BEVs with acceptable range sell without subsidies for about the same price as ICEs, then Ford will devote more energy to BEVs. In the meantime, Energis are getting their customers used to plugging in, in cars that look completely normal.

 

[GRA]

Surprised by the low i3 number. In most places you can walk into a dealership and buy i3 off the lot - yet there are people still waiting for their reserved cars.

I'm not. I don't believe it is a car that is going to appeal to a significant number of EV aficionados outside of the BMW EV faithful... Once those sales to the faithful are concluded, it is going to be an even harder sell. BMW severely misjudged in my opinion.

I agree. I think the B-class will take a lot of sales from the BEV i3 and the hardcore BEV fanboys who turn up their noses at the REx but want more range, and if M-B adds QC capability (dumb that it didn't have it from the start) the gap will only widen. The B-class may even skim off some sales of upper end LEAFs, as it's the first BEV that provides a real 100 mile EPA range for less than $43k MSRP (actually $42,050 plus D&H etc.). It doesn't have the range of the RAV4 but it's almost $8k less base, although comparably equipped the numbers are a lot closer. Of course, Toyota is putting a lot more on the hood than M-B is at the moment, so that evens things out a lot.

 

[GRA]

I think it's noteworthy that prototype of PHEV (Volt) was overtaken by the Ford Fusion Energi. I would be much more likely to buy the Fusion over the Volt because of size and styling. It looks like other people think the same thing.

The Volt is a vastly superior car, and can be purchased for less money (since it gets a larger tax credit). The difference as to why one is selling better than another can easily be explained by a trip down the street to look at two car dealers. Our local Ford Dealer has many of these in stock on their lot, an open charging station in the front, and advertising about the cars, as well as one on the showroom floor. The Chevy Dealer sitting next to them has 1 Volt hidden way in the back like they are ashamed of it.

It's highly variable by area. In the Bay Area, many Chevy dealers have PV carports with multiple charging points under them, and lots of Volts and Spark EVs.

 

[ranss12]

I don't think that Ford, and the other major car manufacturers for that matter, have a business plan that lets their dealers make money on BEVs. I don't see how they can money, either, given that BEVs require almost no maintenance and dealers make most of their money in the service department. Maybe Nissan is hoping that when BEV families purchase their 'trip' car, they will give Nissan ICEs more consideration than would otherwise be the case. that might also be the reason that Nissan doesn't come out with a longer range LEAF - it would cannabalize potential ICE buyers.

 

[GRA]

And this, from IEVs:

"Indianapolis Buys 50 Ford Fusion Energis For Police Duty (w/video)"

http://insideevs.com/indianapolis-buys-50-ford-fusion-energi-police-duty/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"Dave Schwartz, deputy chief of Indianapolis’ Public Safety Center, had this to say of the Fusion Energis:

“[It gets] 88.2 miles per gallon.”

"Schwartz loves the Fusion Energi, which he’s been driving since September. The last time he fueled it was mid-March. Since then, he’s clocked 1,6000[Sic.] miles, yet there’s still a quarter tank of gas left.

Schwartz was sort of the beta tester for the Fusion Energi. The fact that it has saved the department on fuel led to the commitment to purchase 50 more. The Department of Public Safety calculates the annual fuel savings at $70,000 for the 50 Fusion Energis.

"Most importantly for the department is that the Fusion Energis feels/operate no different from a normal ICE vehicle. As Schwartz states:

“It’s a good ride. I mean, it’s definitely quiet when it’s running electric. But I don’t think you’re going to notice the difference from driving a normal gas-powered vehicle.”

 

[RegGuheert]

Once battery costs come down to the point where BEVs with acceptable range sell without subsidies for about the same price as ICEs, then Ford will devote more energy to BEVs.

Why did you put the words "without subsidies" in there? Do you think Ford cares if the customer pays the entire price of the car or if the government pays part?

In the meantime, Energis are getting their customers used to plugging in, in cars that look completely normal.

It seems Ford has no problems selling subsidized PHEVs... Also, FFE also looks completely normal to me. I like how it looks!

 

[RegGuheert]

I agree. I think the B-class will take a lot of sales from the BEV i3 and the hardcore BEV fanboys who turn up their noses at the REx but want more range, and if M-B adds QC capability (dumb that it didn't have it from the start) the gap will only widen. The B-class may even skim off some sales of upper end LEAFs, as it's the first BEV that provides a real 100 mile EPA range for less than $43k MSRP (actually $42,050 plus D&H etc.). It doesn't have the range of the RAV4 but it's almost $8k less base, although comparably equipped the numbers are a lot closer. Of course, Toyota is putting a lot more on the hood than M-B is at the moment, so that evens things out a lot.

Since Tesla makes the drivetrain, it's a bit hard for me to see MB as being committed to BEVs. I realize that they are selling these nationwide, but so is Ford with the FFE. All told, I imagine the B-class will sell about as well as the Rav4EV and will have about the same number of problems.

For the sake of BEVs, hopefully I'm wrong about the above.

 

[lorenfb]

"The B-ClassVisit the B-Class Forum may even skim off some sales of upper end LEAFs, as it's the first BEV that provides a real 100 mile EPA range for less than $43k MSRP (actually $42,050 plus D&H etc.)."

A present Leaf at 85/90 mile range versus the M/B 'B' with 100 mile range has basically no perceived
difference/value to the consumer. The real difference begins at over 125/150 miles.

The volume BEV market is at or below $35K, so a M/B 'B' or BMW i3 is a low volume niche market BEV.
At $35K or below a consumer can start to 'see' value when making a trade-off decision against an ICE
purchase.

 

[RegGuheert]

I don't think that Ford, and the other major car manufacturers for that matter, have a business plan that lets their dealers make money on BEVs.

If that's true, then how do you explain some Nissan dealers selling boatloads of LEAFs?

 

[KJD]

I don't think that Ford, and the other major car manufacturers for that matter, have a business plan that lets their dealers make money on BEVs.

If that's true, then how do you explain some Nissan dealers selling boatloads of LEAFs?

Where are the high volume LEAF dealers anyhow ?

Today I looked at Fontana web site and found over 300 gas guzzlers and 4 LEAF's. You got to have inventory to sell cars.

 

[RegGuheert]

If that's true, then how do you explain some Nissan dealers selling boatloads of LEAFs?

Where are the high volume LEAF dealers anyhow ?

In Pennsylvania, perhaps?

We have 1 Nissan dealer who really cared about the Leaf, learned what needed to be learned, and has people with the know-how to sell and support the car.
They sell Butt-loads of them
They have every color sitting on their lot, ready to go.

But perhaps I misunderstood: I'm not sure "Butt-loads" is the same unit as "boatloads"! :lol: :lol:

 

[TomT]

I don't think those that shop EVs shop ICEs in the same way... When we replaced our ICE a couple of years ago we didn't even give a thought to Nissan as they made nothing that appealed to us...
I don't see much crossover from EV to ICE within a manufacturer's line... They are two completely different things with completely different rationale driving them...

Maybe Nissan is hoping that when BEV families purchase their 'trip' car, they will give Nissan ICEs more consideration than would otherwise be the case. that might also be the reason that Nissan doesn't come out with a longer range LEAF - it would cannabalize potential ICE buyers.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I don't think those that shop EVs shop ICEs in the same way... When we replaced our ICE a couple of years ago we didn't even give a thought to Nissan as they made nothing that appealed to us...
I don't see much crossover from EV to ICE within a manufacturer's line... They are two completely different things with completely different rationale driving them...

Probably generally true, but the Leaf has, if only slightly, renewed my mild interest in the Sentra. It seems like a lot of car for the price. Also, if Toyota, who could be called our preferred brand, comes out with a BEV or longer-range PHEV (as I survey I just took claims they will) they will both get our consideration. Honda, my previous preferred brand, is also supposed to be coming out with small PHEV and BEVs, and they will especially interest me.