2014 June Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2347, Total 11893

[GRA]

Once battery costs come down to the point where BEVs with acceptable range sell without subsidies for about the same price as ICEs, then Ford will devote more energy to BEVs.

Why did you put the words "without subsidies" in there? Do you think Ford cares if the customer pays the entire price of the car or if the government pays part?

No, but their customers will, once the subsidies run out. A PHEV remains a usable car for many years even if the battery degrades, so it is a more reasonable purchase. It is also more likely to retain value on the used market.

In the meantime, Energis are getting their customers used to plugging in, in cars that look completely normal.

It seems Ford has no problems selling subsidized PHEVs... Also, FFE also looks completely normal to me. I like how it looks!

I do too, and once they introduce the Focus Energi I expect its sales will take off too. In fact, I listed it at the top of my PEV looks list. Could Ford have devoted more energy to upgrading the FFE? Sure, but they don't see the point at this time. If they don't design the next gen platform so that it can take a variety of powerplants without significantly encroaching on passenger/cargo space, as VW has done with their MQB, then I'd agree that they're being stupid. But not now.

 

[GRA]

"The B-ClassVisit the B-Class Forum may even skim off some sales of upper end LEAFs, as it's the first BEV that provides a real 100 mile EPA range for less than $43k MSRP (actually $42,050 plus D&H etc.)."

A present Leaf at 85/90 mile range versus the M/B 'B' with 100 mile range has basically no perceived
difference/value to the consumer. The real difference begins at over 125/150 miles.

The volume BEV market is at or below $35K, so a M/B 'B' or BMW i3 is a low volume niche market BEV.
At $35K or below a consumer can start to 'see' value when making a trade-off decision against an ICE
purchase.

I agree that the RAV4 provides significantly better capability, but only if you can afford it. I'd agree with you that the i3 doesn't provide a significant upgrade (actually, a downgrade in range) for the money, but the B-class will for some people. Probably not many, which is why I wrote 'may even skim off some sales'.

 

[evnow]

MBED would be a decent upgrade for me. Larger range - especially in winter because of thermally heating the battery. It even has heated windows which should save a bunch on heating used just to defog. I don't use QC much - so not having QC won't be felt much. It also has more room for cargo.

 

[Anonymous]

Since Tesla makes the drivetrain, it's a bit hard for me to see MB as being committed to BEVs. I realize that they are selling these nationwide, but so is Ford with the FFE. All told, I imagine the B-class will sell about as well as the Rav4EV and will have about the same number of problems.

The Smart ED drivetrain is made by MB and their partners and is available outside of CARB states (including Canada where I am). It was the top selling pure EV in Germany in 2013.
The MB B Class has Tesla battery and drivetrain.
The MB SLS ED has LG batteries and 3rd party motors (one per wheel, very cool!).

To me, it looks pretty clear that Mercedes Benz / Smart are spending a reasonable amount of energy and willing to sell these cars around the world, not just in California.

Using a Tesla drivetrain may indeed be due to the "Tesla" factor, and wanting to grab some of that marketing juice.
It may also be to see how the Tesla systems compare to their underpinnings in the Smart ED which are reasonably advanced. The Smart ED has a heated/cooled battery with NMC chemistry and reserving enough battery on low and top end such that owners never need to choose to "charge to 80%" or anything as confusing as that, we just always charge to 100 and go. Who knows what "100% SOC" is, it might be only 85% of the total battery, but who cares, they've thankfully hidden such trivialities from the end user, making the experience more consumable by non-techies.

 

[GRA]

MBED would be a decent upgrade for me. Larger range - especially in winter because of thermally heating the battery. It even has heated windows which should save a bunch on heating used just to defog. I don't use QC much - so not having QC won't be felt much. It also has more room for cargo.

In addition to the practical benefits, there's the psychological advantage of breaking through the triple-digit range barrier, and that's significant.

 

[evnow]

In addition to the practical benefits, there's the psychological advantage of breaking through the triple-digit range barrier, and that's significant.

Not to me

 

[RegGuheert]

In addition to the practical benefits, there's the psychological advantage of breaking through the triple-digit range barrier, and that's significant.

That's a bit arbitrary for me. I've long felt that there is a practical minimum above which a BEV will appeal to a very broad customer base. I put that number at about 125 miles of EPA range. Perhaps 150.

 

[evnow]

That's a bit arbitrary for me. I've long felt that there is a practical minimum above which a BEV will appeal to a very broad customer base. I put that number at about 125 miles of EPA range. Perhaps 150.

Depends on your idea of "broad" - but here is my thinking.

3 hours of freeway driving.

I know a lot of us drive more without stopping - but that point looks promising. That should be about 250 to 300 EPA miles - to give a practical 200 miles of range at high speeds in normal winter conditions in most populated cold states in the US.

However that 150 miles will break a lot of walls and we'll see a quantum jump in sales. That is why Tesla gen 3 (and Leaf next gen to a lesser extent) looks attractive.

 

[TomT]

We need to start a pole to let people guess when GRA actually buys a PEV... :lol:

In fact, I listed it at the top of my PEV looks list.

 

[GRA]

In fact, I listed it at the top of my PEV looks list.

We need to start a pole to let people guess when GRA actually buys a PEV... :lol:

Oh, that's easy! When one meets my major car needs, at a price I can afford. Of course, it may be an FCEV rather than a PEV, because among my major needs is long freeway range in winter. My current car will serve just fine until then. I went through my "boy, I going to try to use this emerging technology for everything, even though it makes no practical or economic sense for most of these purposes right now" phase about 25 years ago, with AE. I got it all out of my system then :lol:

 

[GRA]

In addition to the practical benefits, there's the psychological advantage of breaking through the triple-digit range barrier, and that's significant.

That's a bit arbitrary for me. I've long felt that there is a practical minimum above which a BEV will appeal to a very broad customer base. I put that number at about 125 miles of EPA range. Perhaps 150.

Reg, I'm one of the people here who have been saying 150 miles EPA @ <=$30k is the point at which mainstream consumers will start to _seriously_ consider BEVs for a couple of years now, although 125 miles is a possibility. But we're talking about a psychological tipping point in people's minds, not necessarily a practical tipping point. After all, that's why Nissan et al were all claiming 100 miles of range, but not mentioning that is only for LA4. It's also why gasoline and diesel still have prices that end in 9/10ths, and why most prices end in .99 or .95 rather than round dollars, even though anyone who bothers to think about it for a fraction of a second knows that the price is effectively the next higher cent or dollar.

 

[evnow]

Finally I get time to upload the graphs ...

 

[evnow]

After all, that's why Nissan et al were all claiming 100 miles of range, but not mentioning that is only for LA4.

Has this now become an urban myth ?

8/2/2009

http://www.nissan-global.com/EN/NEWS/2009/_STORY/090802-02-e.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NISSAN UNVEILS "LEAF" - THE WORLD'S FIRST ELECTRIC CAR DESIGNED FOR AFFORDABILITY AND REAL-WORLD REQUIREMENTS

Unlike internal-combustion engine (ICE) equipped vehicles, Nissan LEAF's power train has no tail pipe, and thus no emission of CO2 or other greenhouse gases. A combination of Nissan LEAF's regenerative braking system and innovative lithium-ion battery packs enables the car to deliver a driving range of more than 160km (100 miles) on one full charge*. (*US LA4 mode)

4/26/2010

http://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2011/road-test1.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The bottom line is that currently the 2011 Nissan Leaf has a range of just 100 miles, and that's worked out to the U.S. LA-4 driving cycle (the original EPA city driving cycle, before the current FTP cycle was instituted), and this means that even Nissan admits that the car's owners are going to struggle to achieve it.

 

[GRA]

After all, that's why Nissan et al were all claiming 100 miles of range, but not mentioning that is only for LA4.

Has this now become an urban myth ?

8/2/2009

http://www.nissan-global.com/EN/NEWS/2009/_STORY/090802-02-e.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

NISSAN UNVEILS "LEAF" - THE WORLD'S FIRST ELECTRIC CAR DESIGNED FOR AFFORDABILITY AND REAL-WORLD REQUIREMENTS

Unlike internal-combustion engine (ICE) equipped vehicles, Nissan LEAF's power train has no tail pipe, and thus no emission of CO2 or other greenhouse gases. A combination of Nissan LEAF's regenerative braking system and innovative lithium-ion battery packs enables the car to deliver a driving range of more than 160km (100 miles) on one full charge*. (*US LA4 mode)

4/26/2010

http://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2011/road-test1.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The bottom line is that currently the 2011 Nissan Leaf has a range of just 100 miles, and that's worked out to the U.S. LA-4 driving cycle (the original EPA city driving cycle, before the current FTP cycle was instituted), and this means that even Nissan admits that the car's owners are going to struggle to achieve it.

I'll freely admit that in the fine print of the ad they would state LA4. Would you say that they or their competitors went out of their way to emphasize that to their customers? Or was it typically the case that the range number was in larger type, with an asterisk pointing to the qualifiers in the fine print? For example, here's the way the info is presented in the Nissan press release you link to above (I've bolded the relevant sections):

2nd paragraph:

"Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. today unveiled Nissan LEAF, the world's first affordable, zero-emission car. Designed specifically for a lithium-ion battery-powered chassis, Nissan LEAF is a medium-size hatchback that comfortably seats five adults and has a range of more than 160km (100 miles) to satisfy real-world consumer requirements.

3rd paragraph (bullet points):

"Key characteristics of the LEAF include:
1) Zero-emission power train and platform
2) Affordable pricing
3) Distinctive design
4) Real-world range autonomy - 160km (100 miles)
5) Connected Mobility: Advanced intelligent transportation (IT) system"

Sixth Paragraph:

"Unlike internal-combustion engine (ICE) equipped vehicles, Nissan LEAF's power train has no tail pipe, and thus no emission of CO2 or other greenhouse gases. A combination of Nissan LEAF's regenerative braking system and innovative lithium-ion battery packs enables the car to deliver a driving range of more than 160km (100 miles) on one full charge*. (*US LA4 mode).

Seventh Paragraph:

"Extensive consumer research demonstrates that this range satisfies the daily driving requirements of more than 70% of the world's consumers who drive cars."

Now aside from burying the info about 100 miles LA4 well down in the release after twice saying 100 miles without any qualifiers, which as they well know tends to mean that qualifiers get skipped over when reading, they don't state anywhere that LA4 is a city cycle, nor do they describe it. How many people do you think knew or know what LA4 is?

If they had any intention of full disclosure, the release should have read something like this:

2nd Paragraph:

"Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. today unveiled Nissan LEAF, the world's first affordable, zero-emission car. Designed specifically for a lithium-ion battery-powered chassis, Nissan LEAF is a medium-size hatchback that comfortably seats five adults and has a typical range of 70-80 miles in mixed city/highway driving, and a maximum range of more than 160km (100 miles) on the EPA's city LA4* cycle, to satisfy real-world consumer requirements. Use of heater, defroster or air conditioner will substantially shorten the above ranges."

3rd paragraph (bullet points):

"Key characteristics of the LEAF include:
1) Zero-emission power train and platform
2) Affordable pricing
3) Distinctive design
4) Real-world range autonomy - 120-160km (70-100 miles) depending on mix of city/highway, less if using climate control system.
5) Connected Mobility: Advanced intelligent transportation (IT) system"



* Full description of LA4 cycle

 

[evnow]

I'll freely admit that in the fine print of the ad they would state LA4. Would you say that they or their competitors went out of their way to emphasize that to their customers?

Not just fine print - Nissan did go out of their way to say how much the range will depend on various scenarios. They even had a sheet all of us signed when we got the car explaining the differences. Infact we all knew this in this forum - we endlessly talked about how much Leaf will give in highway driving. Just search and you will find out.

We are now going OOT - I'll spin this off into another thread. We need to kill this urban myth.