2023 Nissan EV Sales

[Dooglas]

I'm pointing out that the US EV market overwhelmingly does not make your choice, and I'm willing to guess (in part) why: CHAdeMO/LEAF sucks, making the 62 kWh LEAF into a poor trip car. Much the same can be said of the Chevy Bolt, although it at least will have reasonable long term pack degradation. People who own another car for trips might be happy with the LEAF as an extended commuter but then their money savings is more mirage than real because they very rarely calculate the extra opportunity costs of keeping the second car.

Some families "need" two cars, and then the calculations change. These money questions are a huge YMMV but I can count on two thumbs the number of fair accountings I have read. The rest are rationalizations and attempts to defend prior decisions.

As I observed, it means little to me what choices others make in the vehicle market. Many choose large and heavy SUVs or pickups for example. This would make no sense for how I make use of a vehicle. And as I have noted previously, our household owned 2 vehicles well before I acquired an EV and still would without an EV. I am not trying to hypothesize how others should meet their personal or household transportation needs - I am sharing what mine are and how I choose to meet them. It is not helpful (or even particularly civil) for you to characterize my choices as "rationalizations" or "attempts to defend prior decisions"

 

[SageBrush]

When talking to non EV owners they all seem to have no idea how many miles they drive in a day and "require" a vehicle that can make a cross country trip at any second!

That is a meme that EV adopters lob at ICE'ers but it is mostly hyperbole, at least for those I talk to. I hear an unwillingness to face a long charging episode before or during car use. The specifics are murky because these people are not well informed about EVs.

Actually, I chatted with a Tesla owner the other day who opined that while he loves the car for city driving, he hates it for trips and considers it unusable in the winter. It turned out he is a truck driver, and wanted to drive for hours on end without stopping. The winter opinion was the result of driving his Tesla down to low SoC and then getting caught in a traffic jam that lasted hours.

I think this desire to always have immediate access to a seemingly unlimited supply of energy lies at the heart of honest EV skepticism. I'm not saying it is reasonable, only that it not simply EV antipathy dressed up as a lame excuse.

 

[SageBrush]

It is not helpful (or even particularly civil) for you to characterize my choices as "rationalizations" or "attempts to defend prior decisions"

It is not helpful, or particularly honest, to paint non LEAFs as $60k+ purchases when a new Tesla Model Y is about $43k + tax these days, is much more than a commuter EV, and may well be a 20 year car purchase that can remove the ICE can dripping oils on much desired garage space.

How much will you spend over 20 years of flipping LEAFs for small incremental gains ?

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

If wanting to Road Trip economically, a Prius/Prius Prime is about the cheapest and fastest and likely lowest carbon way to do it.

 

[Banger]

Actually, I chatted with a Tesla owner the other day who opined that while he loves the car for city driving, he hates it for trips and considers it unusable in the winter. It turned out he is a truck driver, and wanted to drive for hours on end without stopping. The winter opinion was the result of driving his Tesla down to low SoC and then getting caught in a traffic jam that lasted hours.

I think this desire to always have immediate access to a seemingly unlimited supply of energy lies at the heart of honest EV skepticism. I'm not saying it is reasonable, only that it not simply EV antipathy dressed up as a lame excuse.

I am a truck driver, and all my coworkers think any EV is a poor financial decision. Lots of FUD, sure, but also I think you're right: They're accustomed to being able to take a long drive on practically no notice and never needing to worry about range because there's fossil fuel at every exit.

One recently told me he felt like another gas-powered car was the wiser move, if I planned to own the car beyond its warranty period, because of the cost to replace the battery pack.

I didn't tell him I have a maintenance log for my current daily, a Nissan cube, that totals nearly $13,000 in maintenance and repair expenses over 13 years. The largest of those expenses: A $4,500 CVT replacement last fall at 190,000 miles.

As its age has crept up, my cube has cost me more. The last 12 months have accounted for more than half the total expense thanks largely to that CVT job.

Reminder that a 60 kWh battery replacement would cost about as much as I have spent on maintenance and repair for my cube over 13 years. So if the battery lasts a decade or more in my use, I pretty much have the same expense ratio, minus a lot of fuel costs -- which are not accounted for in the $13,000.

 

[cornbinder89]

If wanting to Road Trip economically, a Prius/Prius Prime is about the cheapest and fastest and likely lowest carbon way to do it.

I may have the terms wrong but I think the Prius plus is the PIHV and the plain Prius is just Hybrid. I was looking and the plug in hybrid costs you more than 5 MPG over the full hybrid, which I found shocking.
With the plain hybrid fuel cost coming close to the Leafs, but with the added cost of maintaining a ICE. On it plus side the hybrid can be an only car that can do everything fairly cheaply. The Prius Plus can also but carries a penalty if you can't keep most of your trips within the "all electric" range, not sure it would be worth the price addition over the plain Prius.
I think this is why we are seeing the small "entry" level electrics go away. They really can't be an only car for most, and the Mfg can squeeze more profit from larger high cost cars. Both Chevy and Nissan have dropped their small car in favor of "crossover or small SUV style vehicles.
It is why, when mine can no longer do what I purchased it for, I will be taking a long look at a replacement battery pack. There just isn't a good alternative if you want a small EV for local use, at least not in my price range.

 

[SageBrush]

I may have the terms wrong but I think the Prius plus is the PIHV

Prius Prime is the plug-in.
I owned that car for a year while waiting for my Tesla. I owned the regular Prius hybrid for 13 years before that.

The plug-in Prius hybrid checks a lot of boxes and is a great upgrade for people who will *actually* plug in every day (not too many of those). The oddity of the car, which does not show up on paper, is that most people learn to hate the transition from EV to ICE driving. EV driving is fast, responsive, quiet and (can be) clean, while ICE driving pretty much just sucks in so many ways. A plug-in reminds you of the differences almost every day.

The business case for plug-in hybrids was a lot stronger when batteries cost 10x - 15x their cost today, and there *might* still be a case for them today in trucks. Not for long though

 

[cornbinder89]

You're correct, I meant "Prime" not plus. Oldtimers reading getting me again.

 

[Dooglas]

How much will you spend over 20 years of flipping LEAFs for small incremental gains ?

Well, if I keep this LEAF as long as I kept the last one then I will have an answer for you. Actually, I already have an answer, but that is based on the assumption of no major/expensive repairs during that period. We shall see.

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

My case was in regards to long road trips and the cost of gas vs. Retail DC charging. I know many that can claim more than 50mpg at fast highway speeds in the newer Prius. Retail DC is pushing .50/kWh in many places. If you can do a Tesla/Lucid 4 miles kWh, vs. a $3/gallon...it's 6 cents a mile for the ICE and 12.5 cents for the efficient ev. Now those are not all costs, just one "fueling" comparison perspective.

 

[Jerther]

As its age has crept up, my cube has cost me more. The last 12 months have accounted for more than half the total expense thanks largely to that CVT job.

Reminder that a 60 kWh battery replacement would cost about as much as I have spent on maintenance and repair for my cube over 13 years. So if the battery lasts a decade or more in my use, I pretty much have the same expense ratio, minus a lot of fuel costs -- which are not accounted for in the $13,000.

How did that CVT job go? Was it over within a week? Within a day even?

From what I gather, and depending on where you live, I doubt a battery replacement would go that smoothly, and I think that should be part of the equation as well :/

 

[Paulz]

I have a 24 sv plus. Montreal. Got it because there are free charging stations around, and work is 10km. I got it January. Specs say 350km range. Not in winter, more like 150-200. Home charger about 2500$, and electricity costs. It doesn’t save money. Lease cost is higher, balances gas cost.

 

[Banger]

How did that CVT job go? Was it over within a week? Within a day even?

From what I gather, and depending on where you live, I doubt a battery replacement would go that smoothly, and I think that should be part of the equation as well :/

My car was with the shop -- not the local Nissan dealer, either -- for a little over a week.

There are no shops doing that kind of work in my immediate area at this time, but assuming that situation doesn't change in the next decade-plus (and I think it will), I could tow a LEAF to the nearest metro area where there are a couple of specialist shops.

Of course, I thought there would be beaucoup transmission shops well-versed in CVT maintenance by now, 20 years after Nissan started using them in some of their most popular models, and every shop I approached flatly refused to rebuild the car's existing transmission. Just like the dealers, all they would do is replace.

I even received the piss-poor advice from the shop that eventually replaced mine, "We typically don't do fluid and filter changes. You can drain the fluid after 100,000 miles, assuming it makes it that long, and it'll be just as clear as it is today." Wrong. I've seen burnt-up, black CVT fluid with my own two eyes, after just 30,000 miles. They won't be touching my transmission again.

If I were an enterprising young mechanic, I'd open a CVT specialty shop for now and start training in all matters EV powertrain for the future. Both practically virgin markets in the industry across wide swaths of the country.

 

[SageBrush]

My case was in regards to long road trips and the cost of gas vs. Retail DC charging. I know many that can claim more than 50mpg at fast highway speeds in the newer Prius. Retail DC is pushing .50/kWh in many places. If you can do a Tesla/Lucid 4 miles kWh, vs. a $3/gallon...it's 6 cents a mile for the ICE and 12.5 cents for the efficient ev. Now those are not all costs, just one "fueling" comparison perspective.

Your long trip description does not match my experience. For one, 50¢ a kWh is not average. Second, destination charging can be much cheaper or free. And third, most people start out with a full battery from home.

I figure on 400 miles a day of driving, of which 1/2 is DC fast charging at 35¢ a kWh and L2 charging is 10¢ a kWh. If I use 250 Wh/mile (to match the 50 MPG Prius), I calculate

DC charging
50 kWh -- $17.5

L2 charging
50 kWh -- $5

For a total of $22.5 over 400 miles, so about 5.6¢ a mile

 

[kitra]

ICE vehicles are the way to go if you only have one vehicle. We have a 2002 SAAB 9-5 with 200K miles and it's always willing to take us anywhere we want. Doesn't burn oil, runs clean for an ICE vehicle. The emissions testing here cannot get a reading out the tailpipe yet the exhaust is in great condition. Not sure why? We were in the process of buying a used Tesla Model "S" that was sitting on a lot for 6 months with little interest. The Dealer was nice enough to let us borrow it for the weekend. Charged it to 90% and took a 175 miles trip. The Tesla was rated for 259 miles range. We drove it between 35 and 65 MPH, 65 most of the time. Used the "Chill" mode yet ran out of battery at 158 miles! We had the Heater on and the wipers. Very disappointing for a Tesla with 41K miles, 2017. So ICE we stay. Chademo kills the LEAF for us.

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

Your long trip description does not match my experience. For one, 50¢ a kWh is not average. Second, destination charging can be much cheaper or free. And third, most people start out with a full battery from home.

I figure on 400 miles a day of driving, of which 1/2 is DC fast charging at 35¢ a kWh and L2 charging is 10¢ a kWh. If I use 250 Wh/mile (to match the 50 MPG Prius), I calculate

DC charging
50 kWh -- $17.5

L2 charging
50 kWh -- $5

For a total of $22.5 over 400 miles, so about 5.6¢ a mile

Sage, agreed.in general on the first "tank". I also went and checked my normal stops, and yes .50 was a little rich. The average was ~.40/kWh across the main stops. If you assume charging losses of 10%, that's .44/kWh.

My mental exercise was thinking about a friend's son who drove from Oregon to Chicago in about 40 hours and barely over $100 in gas in a prius thinking that don't think I really dive my Leaf that distance for as little (and certainly.much more time).

 

[Joeaverage]

A few years ago my mom was in need of an updated vehicle. She started shopping for full-size SUVs. When questioned, her justification was that she might need to haul herself + my dad + three kids + three grandkids = eight passengers = full-size SUV. (I'm not sure what happened to the three spouses in this equation, but...)

My wife and I unfortunately live 1250 miles away from my parents. My sister, her husband, and two of the grandkids live 850 miles from my parents. My brother, his wife, and the final grandkid live 400 miles from my parents.

Most folks are not good at evaluating their true vehicle needs. If they were, the Ford F-150 would not be the best-selling vehicle in the US for the entirety of my life. My retired parents now have a Toyota Rav4 Hybrid that gets 40 mpg on the highway plus an 275k-mile 1995 Chevy truck for around the farm.

Oh yes. We have elders who believed the same kind of thing. They owned two eight passenger vehicles in a row and I doubt they ever carried any passengers more than a few times during their entire ownership. They have since moved to a CUV two row vehicle which is well sized for their modest needs.

A recent conversation was about replacing that vehicle b/c it was "old". I asked how many miles it has after 5-6 years - answer was ~30K miles. Nothing wrong with it. Just wants something different if the truth was told.

 

[SageBrush]

and yes .50 was a little rich

Have you looked at taking out an EA membership for a month for those long trips ? It costs $7 and you pay 25% less of the usual per kWh fee. I think (not positive) that most EA charging these days is 40¢ - 45¢ a kWh usual fee, so with the discount 30¢ - 34¢ per kWh. That about matches Tesla Supercharging rates. If you are stuck with other expensive charge networks, or perish the thought Francis Energy, then you can just add the costs to the 'I own a LEAF' list of woe and opportunity costs.

In your shoes I would not long trip the LEAF. It is forcing the car into a task for which it is ill-suited. Just rent a Prius for those occasions.

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

Once my wife got her Rogue a year back, only the adult kids do the 600 mile trek in the Leaf now. (Or if I am on a rare long drive solo)

Not a bad idea to do a one month subscription when we are trekking the Leaf to/from Kansas.

 

[Bombastinator2]

https://insideevs.com/news/703114/nissan-us-bev-sales-2023q4/
A drip of good news for Nissan: Ariya is selling more than a year ago
The larger picture: Total NIssan EV sales in the US are under 20k in 2023. In a world (and in the US, albeit behind the curve) where EV sales are measured in millions and growth is rapid, Nissan is not even worth counting. They have a LONG way to go, presuming Nissan can rehab its miserable corporate and dealership reputations.

The LEAF angle is that sales are low and dropping fast. Now about 450 a month in the USA

I would blame that on the prime rate more than anti-electric propaganda, though there has been some of that. If you can’t get a cheap loan you can’t buy a new car. Period. Also in cities most people live in apartments with street parking. If you can’t charge your EV buying one is dumb.