2014 June Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 2347, Total 11893

[cgaydos]

Leaf 2347 in June, per Insideevs

We're at the point with the LEAF where 2347 is a "down" month, caused by lower inventories due to the huge May (3117 units) and the model year changeover. Quite the change from, say fall 2012 when a lot of people were wondering if the LEAF would catch on.

For the year the LEAF now has a commanding lead of over 5k ahead of the Volt - 12,736 to 7,729. It really wasn't that long ago that the Volt was the clear sales winner in the U.S. I speculate that as LEAF early adopters spread the word the fears of range anxiety lessened - and I think that most EV-interested people would prefer a BEV to a EREV or PHEV, if we can somehow make it work.

All in all Nissan has an enviable market position with the LEAF. Nissan will probably need a big advancement in the 2016 model year to keep that market position, but if they do they'll be to EVs what Toyota is to hybrids.

 

[lorenfb]

The Q2 Tesla goal was 7500 while Q1 had 7K+. Data (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false
indicates 7400 YTD for US sales. Obviously data accuracy is questionable and worldwide numbers aren't reflected,
but with a 2014 goal of 30K, the next six months needs to have an average production rate over 2.5K/month,
which assumes a YTD worldwide number ~ 15K. This assumes Tesla achieves a 7.5K Q2, but Tesla Q2
numbers won't be available until early August.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Leaf 2347 in June, per Insideevs

that sounds WAAAAYY too low. you have a link?

 

[RegGuheert]

Leaf 2347 in June, per Insideevs

that sounds WAAAAYY too low. you have a link?

Nissan LEAF Sales In US Rise For 16th Consecutive Month

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Leaf 2347 in June, per Insideevs

that sounds WAAAAYY too low. you have a link?

http://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-june-2014/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Low from last month, up 5.5% from June 2013

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Leaf 2347 in June, per Insideevs

that sounds WAAAAYY too low. you have a link?

http://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-june-2014/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Low from last month, up 5.5% from June 2013

well now, I am depressed. any evidence its a supply issue caused by lull in MY change over from 14 to 15? I have seen a measurable jump in local LEAF sightings in the past two weeks.

can't believe May was a flash in the pan... oh woe is we

 

[jhm614]

well now, I am depressed. any evidence its a supply issue caused by lull in MY change over from 14 to 15? I have seen a measurable jump in local LEAF sightings in the past two weeks.

can't believe May was a flash in the pan... oh woe is we

I've been tracking Leaf inventory on Cars.com -- the EOM inventory is significantly lower than normal, so I'll bet a fair amount of production (more than 1500 cars, maybe as many as 2,500 cars) were pushed into the 2015 inventory that isn't available for sale yet. Maybe this means the remaining 2014s were in slow selling areas and we'll see a bounce back month in July as the 2015s filter into the hot selling areas.

J.

 

[scottf200]

Looks like the leader is Ford PHEVs at 2927!! (1939+988)

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Title: June EV Sales For US Near New High As Ford, Tesla And Nissan Stay Strong
http://insideevs.com/june-ev-sales-us-almost-hit-new-highs-ford-tesla-nissan-stay-strong/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GRA]

Looks like the leader is Ford PHEVs at 2927!! (1939+988)

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Title: June EV Sales For US Near New High As Ford, Tesla And Nissan Stay Strong
http://insideevs.com/june-ev-sales-us-almost-hit-new-highs-ford-tesla-nissan-stay-strong/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yup, of nationally available sub-$40k PEVs, PHEVs are taking a commanding lead, with three out of the four models selling more than 1k being PHEVs, and one more just missing the 1k sales mark. Among PEVs models with sales of 500+ cars, PHEVs are dusting comparably-priced BEVs something like 6,275 to 2,347. The Volt has national competition, and the LEAF still doesn't. Once it does I expect LEAF numbers will drop as the competition takes away sales, but total sub-$40k BEV sales will continue to rise.

 

[evnow]

Surprised by the low i3 number. In most places you can walk into a dealership and buy i3 off the lot - yet there are people still waiting for their reserved cars.

Wondering whether i3 will sell < 500 a month once initial demand is met.

 

[cwerdna]

Surprised by the low i3 number. In most places you can walk into a dealership and buy i3 off the lot - yet there are people still waiting for their reserved cars.

Wondering whether i3 will sell < 500 a month once initial demand is met.

Yeah... I am semi-surprised too. I figured that many Electronauts and some on the sidelines waiting + a few BMW fanboys would want the i3. From what I gather, most of the ActiveE's have been turned in now, and some jumped ship to other plug-ins or back to ICEVs.

The EV/PHEV market is getting pretty crowded, at least in CA.

 

[jhm614]

The Volt has national competition, and the LEAF still doesn't. Once it does I expect LEAF numbers will drop as the competition takes away sales, but total sub-$40k BEV sales will continue to rise.

I think it will depend on the manufacturers commitment to BEVs. The Ford Focus Electric is available nationally, is 35K before state, federal and manufacturer incentives and, I would argue, a better looking car than the Leaf. Yet it sells 10X less. Why? Ford's (and Ford dealer's) commitment to EVs. If Ford had the same commitment as Nissan - in-house production, incremental improvements, driving the price down - the FFE would see the same growth curve as the Leaf. You might be able to make the same argument with about the iMiev.
I just hope that Nissan hits it out of the park with Leaf 2.0 so they can maintain the market leadership position.

 

[TomT]

I'm not. I don't believe it is a car that is going to appeal to a significant number of EV aficionados outside of the BMW EV faithful... Once those sales to the faithful are concluded, it is going to be an even harder sell. BMW severely misjudged in my opinion.

Surprised by the low i3 number. In most places you can walk into a dealership and buy i3 off the lot - yet there are people still waiting for their reserved cars.

 

[cgaydos]

The Volt has national competition, and the LEAF still doesn't. Once it does I expect LEAF numbers will drop as the competition takes away sales, but total sub-$40k BEV sales will continue to rise.

I think it will depend on the manufacturers commitment to BEVs. The Ford Focus Electric is available nationally, is 35K before state, federal and manufacturer incentives and, I would argue, a better looking car than the Leaf. Yet it sells 10X less. Why? Ford's (and Ford dealer's) commitment to EVs. If Ford had the same commitment as Nissan - in-house production, incremental improvements, driving the price down - the FFE would see the same growth curve as the Leaf. You might be able to make the same argument with about the iMiev.
I just hope that Nissan hits it out of the park with Leaf 2.0 so they can maintain the market leadership position.

I have to agree that Ford is not committed to their BEV. I test drove the FFE in early 2013 before getting our second LEAF. Ford had just put out attractive lease terms and there were quite a few available. We chose another LEAF because it had more usable room inside and local Ford dealers weren't trying to be competitive on pricing.

Since then a lot has changed in the LEAF space for the better, while things have gotten worse for the Focus. The 2013 LEAF included all kinds of upgrades and refinements over the 2012, including the 6.6 charger. Prices were reduced. Quick Charge infrastructure has grown dramatically (the Focus can't quick charge) making the LEAF QC feature very important. And Nissan service departments have gained a ton of experience with the LEAF. Meanwhile the only new information I have on the Focus include: 1) a lot of FFEs have been bought back by Ford due to severe problems, and 2) there are now very few available here in Colorado.

So, while the FFE is theoretically a nationwide competitor to the LEAF in practice it isn't really. Nissan took steps to make the LEAF work, including massive dealer incentives at the end of 2012 (both the carrot and the stick - the latter was "if you don't sell X LEAFs we'll reduce your allocation of the high profit Nissans), significant price reductions and refinements in 2013, and investing in advertising and social media. Ford did not, and in fact it has all but abandoned the FFE in favor of the Energy PHEVs.

I don't see the i-Miev as being a real competitor to the LEAF - too small. It may nibble at the LEAF sales but at this stage of the growing EV market it will probably help the LEAF more than it hurts by increasing overall adoption rates. Similar for the BMW and Mercedes EVs, which may take a few LEAF customers but really is aimed at a higher-cost target market. The Kia Soul may be a bigger threat, both for the promise of slightly more range and the notion that the interior space may be similar to the LEAFs, but as I haven't seen the interior I don't know.

 

[adric22]

Since then a lot has changed in the LEAF space for the better, while things have gotten worse for the Focus. The 2013 LEAF included all kinds of upgrades and refinements over the 2012, including the 6.6 charger. Prices were reduced. Quick Charge infrastructure has grown dramatically (the Focus can't quick charge) making the LEAF QC feature very important. And Nissan service departments have gained a ton of experience with the LEAF. Meanwhile the only new information I have on the Focus include: 1) a lot of FFEs have been bought back by Ford due to severe problems, and 2) there are now very few available here in Colorado.

I agree with just about everything you said. The Ford dealers in my area have a lot of Energi models in stock and ready to sell, but have ZERO focus electrics on the lot. If you want one you basically have to ask them to order you one. And the lack of QC is obviously an issue as well. I don't think Ford really wants to sell the FFE very much. Perhaps they are waiting for the next generation before trying to push it. We also seriously considered the FFE but ended up with another Leaf mostly due to QC more than anything else.

I am glad to see the Ford PHEVs selling well, though. I think they are an important step in the right direction and much easier for dealers to adjust to selling than a pure EV.

 

[evnow]

The Volt has national competition, and the LEAF still doesn't. Once it does I expect LEAF numbers will drop as the competition takes away sales, but total sub-$40k BEV sales will continue to rise.

That is because - leaf started out as a good general offering (higher seating, 5 seats, QC) - while Volt was supposed to be a "sporty", low flung 4 seater. Total addressable market for Leaf is much larger than Volt.

Then, Nissan has kept improving Leaf - even though they faced major Battery setbacks.

I don't think anyone can match Leaf in price and utility unless they are as committed to EVs as Nissan is. That is the reason FFE, I will continue to be rounding errors compared to Leaf in sales.

Only potential threat could have been BMW i3 - but they made a 4 seat, sub-compact. Botched the lease offering and have a lot of initial bugs to work out. While the latter problems can be corrected in coming months - the first part is not easily corrected. At this point i3 (REx) is more of a threat to Volt than Leaf.

 

[lorenfb]

I'm not. I don't believe it is a car that is going to appeal to a significant number of EV aficionados outside of the BMW EV faithful... Once those sales to the faithful are concluded, it is going to be an even harder sell. BMW severely misjudged in my opinion.

Surprised by the low i3 number. In most places you can walk into a dealership and buy i3 off the lot - yet there are people still waiting for their reserved cars.

That's it! The i3 has a number of negatives:

1. ugly interior & instrumentation layout
2. non-standard rear entry doors - open front doors 1st
3. boxy & high profile exterior design
4. no CHAdeMO
5. most key - starting price @ $42K+

 

[lorenfb]

Looks like Norway won't be Tesla's 'savior' in Q2 like in Q1, i.e. about 1000 less shipments there.
Can China & ROW make up for the potential flat to negative US Q2, as the Q2 'nut' is 7.5K to
reach a 2014 volume of 30K?

 

[Zythryn]

The i3 was late to he party, that's all.
The Leaf got the first wave of early adopters and has established itself.
The i3 is looking at the tail end of the early adopters and is not shipping in very large numbers yet nationwide.

It does have less utility than the Leaf, and I don't expect it to ever surpass the Leaf in annual sales.
However, it is more fun to drive, and actually would be my 2nd choice for a car if the range was sufficient for our driving habits.

 

[Zythryn]

Looks like Norway won't be Tesla's 'savior' in Q2 like in Q1, i.e. about 1000 less shipments there.
Can China & ROW make up for the potential flat to negative US Q2, as the Q2 'nut' is 7.5K to
reach a 2014 volume of 30K?

Tesla doesn't need any one area to be a 'savior' as you put it.
They are selling worldwide and are production limited. If they can build 30k, they can sell 30k.