Why would anyone buy a nissan leaf right now???

[DougWantsALeaf]

Trigger happy, are you in a state with a state credit/rebate?

 

[jbsocdelica]

Hi Folks; the question may also be, why not buy a used Leaf right now?

For that line of logic (or illogic?) consider this thread:

https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=17&p=596716#p596716

the crux of it is one can upgrade the battery, get rebates on used Leafs sometimes and save a lot... if one plans ahead...

Aloha!

 

[Triggerhappy007]

Trigger happy, are you in a state with a state credit/rebate?

Yes, $2500 in TX and it ends tomorrow.

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

Awesome

Here is a Indy cab driver which has passed 100K miles with his Leaf Plus already.

https://youtu.be/-6rBv-9P9b4

 

[user 24513]

Awesome

Here is a Indy cab driver which has passed 100K miles with his Leaf Plus already.

https://youtu.be/-6rBv-9P9b4

This makes the Leaf Plus seem like a sturdy workhorse, at least in the cooler climates

 

[DougWantsALeaf]

Maybe the simple answer is that they like their house?

https://www.klkntv.com/home-tesla-left-charred-following-garage-fire/pic/372632/

Or that I would like to be able to get out if power fails after the car catches fire.

http://koreabizwire.com/uproar-over-safety-of-tesla-models-after-deadly-fire/177714

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Hi Folks; the question may also be, why not buy a used Leaf right now?

For that line of logic (or illogic?) consider this thread:

https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=17&p=596716#p596716

the crux of it is one can upgrade the battery, get rebates on used Leafs sometimes and save a lot... if one plans ahead...

Aloha!

Because the bulk of buyers are not convenient to aftermarket upgrade locations.

 

[jbsocdelica]

@DaveinOlyWA

I think you're absolutely right... in the context of what you wrote.

Yet, I guess I got pretty lucky in terms of price and location to upgrade mine.

I will note though, that if one you read my posts carefully, the installation guy who did mine, will fly out to different locations to do the install. For example, he recently flew to Atlanta from LA to do the same job as mine.

If you contact him (and by no means am I getting anything for referring you to him), here's how it works (or worked for me)

1. He directs to you to battery sources that you buy on your own, shipped to your house. He's good about helping you get a good price (or at least he was for me)

2. He come to you with tools and the CANBUS (Thanks Muxan and Dala the Great) and installs the battery for between $1000 and $1300. My install cost was more ($1300) because the battery arrived with some exterior damage to the port and he then had to open it up -- a tedious process that involved regluing the seam (almost like auto window sealer) and the making it all work.

I believe what I'm getting at here are that there are several sweet spots with the Leaf that have their own cost / benefits that might work really, really well for some folks (that might only get better).

To reiterate, a used Leaf can be had for (well?) under $3k, and having first purchased the battery with the help of installer, could be an amazing investment (in my calculations, about $4k or less than a used Bolt). Each of course has their advantage.

For me today for example, it was awesome; strapped my long board on my Leaf and it was great to have no range anxiety going along Pacific Coast Highway. I just have this wonderful beater station wagon (2011 Leaf) that I hope to get 10+ years out of.

Also, let's say you buy a 12 Bar Leaf for about $8 - 9k that gets you your 110 city, 75 highway. Then when it degrades in several years, with battery availability, you just upgrade. So you're using the shell as long as you can stand being a little or a lot behind the times.


Let me know what you think, and thanks for taking the time to help all of us sort through this.

Aloha!

 

[GaleHawkins]

Just don't get totaled because book value is same as with old battery I found in our case.

 

[jbsocdelica]

Indeed that makes so much sense;

Or if that happens, if you're lucky in the total not being a total total (read: Rumsfeld English), keep the battery and throw it in another Leaf shell.

 

[goldbrick]

I think the biggest problem is the availability of good used packs. I doubt Nissan or any one else will produce new ones for the general public (shame that...) and as more people realize how easy it is to replace their pack and more packs wear down while the rest of the car is just fine, the demand will almost certainly go up. But the supply will stay constant or even vanish after the Gen 2 Leaf's go EOL.

 

[jbsocdelica]

@Goldbrick;

Under that scenario, variables that I can think of are:

a. by year, how many are on the road (the universe of Leafs / Leaves)

b. by year, what is the crash rate, and subset of salvageable batteries

c. what % of folks would even do that salvage / recycling of batteries?

If (c) is somewhat low for sort of obvious reasons, then a kind of arbitrage advantage exists, that is a kind of market condition that lets you get the battery for less than it's worth because of oversupply relative to the demands of "c." As the battery price hasn't yet been "adjusted" for the fluctuating value.

Conversely, the more people (to a point, with "c" limitations, e.g. at present it's not too 'normal' to do this) that purchase from "b" the price goes up, only limited by the low ceilings of alternatives like the Bolt.

And just read this: "According to a Moneyball report shared via Tesla Facts and Teslarati, the highly anticipated $25,000 Tesla compact car may be coming to market much sooner than previous information suggested." That pushes the value down that much more which could conversely make the price of batteries that much cheaper, again another kind of arbitrage opportunity for buying cheap, living cheap.

Thoughts?

Aloha

 

[GaleHawkins]

When looking to sources like IAA to pick up parts cars quickly one can pickup a nice 2015 10-11 bar Leaf off Craigslist with a clear title for little more with careful shopping.

Leaf cells are in demand for off grid solar systems. RV house batteries and other EV projects.

2020 new Leaf sales were down and Nissan Corp is dying.and no $20-$30K EV's in the pipeline. Today a $25K Tesla from China in 2022 was a hot topic.

If it wasn't for the February 2020 40 kilowatt hour battery in our 2016 SL I would have walked away from it plus I wanted the son to get some Hands-On EV experience. Older Leafs are just too expensive when it comes to parts in my experience to make it very workable.

The end of the line remark was dead on.

 

[cwerdna]

Indeed about US Leafs sales in 2020. I mentioned it when I posted about Bolt sales at https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=596931#p596931. Bolt sales were actually up in the US in 2020 vs. 2019 while Leafs were down. I wonder if it's intentional on the part of Nissan to preserve the Federal tax credit count for Ariya?

Anyway, Bolt outsold Leaf 2:1 in the US for 2020.

Judging by the lack of changes for 2021 Leafs, it feels like Nissan and many of the traditional automakers are moving rather slowly. https://insideevs.com/reviews/464148/2021-tesla-model-3-refresh-25-changes/ listed some changes on the refreshed Model 3, in comparison. This doesn't include the numerous OTA updates they've made over the years.

 

[SageBrush]

a. by year, how many are on the road (the universe of Leafs / Leaves)

b. by year, what is the crash rate, and subset of salvageable batteries

c. what % of folks would even do that salvage / recycling of batteries?

This link
https://cccis.com/news-and-insights/insurance-carriers/whats-driving-total-loss-frequency/

Says that of the damage claims in 1 year old cars, 7% result in total loss.
I've read elsewhere that ~ 1% of the fleet is totaled each year; that sounds ballpark with the above

----
I'm skeptical of this entire notion of private LEAF owners following in your footsteps in any appreciable numbers for a couple of obvious reasons:

1. Battery transport fees
2. MIddle-men fees
3. Installation fees
4. Adapter fees
5. Inability to compete with businesses that find value in the non-battery part of the wreck
6. Risk of damaged battery

All told, the battery is going to have to drop in price *considerably* to interest many people. I know you are happy with your transaction (for now, anyway.) I suspect that battery prices will have to fall to a point where the total installed cost is < $5k to entice more than a few people and that is just not realistic for what amounts to a custom job with all the above frictions.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

What was the cost of the Atlanta install?

 

[jbsocdelica]

@SageBrush
@DaveinOlyWa

@SageBrush

Sage... of course you raise good points, and I agree the less the battery is the more it makes sense....

Good thing, imho, is that Tesla's upcoming price point, pushes all these things cheaper and cheaper, that is they have less perceivable value -- this from the price of a used Leaf to that of a battery.

@DaveinOlyWa
Atlanta price, I think was less than mine $1000 install + $7500 62 kWh battery + roundtrip ticket for installer(?)

Look on ebay for:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Nissan-Leaf-Battery-Replacement-Service/293551898663?hash=item44590e8027:g:Z00AAOSwPKRenAPT

Sage... your points of course, are well taken.

In terms of:

1. Battery transport fees: --$7500 included transport and battery total with tax

2. MIddle-men fees: -- there were none, I paid directly with my credit card to have protection (that was very helpful I might add and I got cash back from card, just thought of that!).
3. Installation fees: from $1000 to $1300 (in my case the latter)
4. Adapter fees: (included, comes with Dala canbus and best of all, Dala updates -- such a cool guy)
5. Inability to compete with businesses that find value in the non-battery part of the wreck: I'm not quite sure what you mean with that exactly.
6. Risk of damaged battery -- yes! the first one that came had some dents, seller took it back and sent me another one rather quickly.

and miles after drive to beach for surf, board on top of car.... (2.5 miles freeway)

Aloha!

 

[SageBrush]

[/b]5. Inability to compete with businesses that find value in the non-battery part of the wreck: I'm not quite sure what you mean with that exactly.

I suppose I was stuck on Alozzy's thought of buying at auction, In that case we have to compete against other businesses that not only sell the LEAF battery, but presumably dismantle the car and also sell parts. I think it means that a wrecked LEAF will be more expensive than an isolated battery although that is pretty much all we want from the wreck.

Your point though is noted -- your battery cost included S&H and middle-man profit.

I'm glad to hear that the reseller treated you right when the first battery arrived damaged. That could have gone badly. And I want you to know that I hope you get a decade of outstanding use from your car. It is just my nature as a grump to not accept anecdotes as proof of a solution that Joe Average can jump into with confidence. I want the experience of a 100 cars and 3 years.
To be clear, I am not trying to dissuade anybody from going this route, but I would like to see people go into it well informed.

Speaking of Dala, I trust him about 1000x more than I trust Nissan. But who do you go to if the LEAF requires repair ? Is a dealership going to work on your car ?

Last point, I think Dala made my cost arguments best in a video he posted here. He +/- develops and works for free to advance a cause he cares about. Imagine if he was acting like a regular business.

 

[GaleHawkins]

Dala and a few others like him are very impressive. Their markets can very different however than the USA when it comes to used Nissan Leafs.

Many years ago when I lived in Spain while in the Navy I saw they would rebuild a car that went over the mountainside if they could find a VIN number because 100% import tax had already been paid on the car.

Used Nissan Leafs are dirt cheap in United states compared to Leafs imported by gray market or otherwise in other parts of the world. In those countries it makes sense to repair batteries replace batteries and things like that but that does not work in the USA financially speaking as well.

 

[jbsocdelica]

@SageBrush

Yes, to what you said about certain risks and how you're so right about knowing what you're getting into. The nature of this granular journey is not typical (at present / ever?). For the typical journey, I would think spend $4K to $7k more and get a used Bolt under warranty. This is just a different way to go which could pay off, and could go South. How South? That's the nature or strategic risk assessment.

@GaleHawkins: I'm suggesting that even in the United States (and maybe with a little love that we send upwards to our amazing neighbours), it could really make sense to have a car with 200+ mile range for well under $11k when managed well noting the risks.

1. Consumer Protection: I used a high quality credit card that would protect me and that gave me the confidence to do the first part of the gamble, the purchase of the battery itself.

2. Seller Confidence: The salvage yard that sold me the battery felt right after speaking the seller as he had two kind of overlapping warranties for me; the battery itself over a short period of time, and the offer to either refund or replace the battery if it arrived damaged.

3. Understanding the gamble parameters: Nonetheless, I knew this was an $8k or so gamble, that had two sorts of defining issues past the original purchase with it:

a. if -- the car gets totaled, I'm out most of that $8k because the value of a 2011 is quite low, unless,

b. the battery is salvageable in some way -- then it could be an even sort of exchange (minus labour costs, i.e., another $1000 to $1300 re-installation into another donor shell plus the hassle of finding that shell -- though craigslist in Ventura and Los Angeles County daily show pretty good deals on those).

4. Repair: Installer and my local mechanic can do most of the repairs for me; I'm not sure what a dealer could do at this point that he or my regular mechanic (brakes, fluid changes) couldn't do.

5. Value over time: Like you, I like to think about probability structures, and this one grocked right as every year the car lives (happy future birthday) its value sort of inversely grows to the risk (the ratio changes in your favour significantly). That is sort of the general formula of driving a car into the ground. So let's call this a data point, in an early stage that has no great 'n' (number of observations) behind it. That to me is a really strong argument you make; and one that sort of appreciates the distinctions and overlap between case study and large scale observations.

6. Overall risk in contexts of risks: I sort of like the cheapskate gamble structure that is well thought out; sometimes you lose; in this case though, you're the house, and you usually win when you've done your research. And to your point, you have to live with your losses in the scheme of your wins over time.

7. Business Model concerns for 1 stop shop: Dala is so thoughtful and if that's the video you were referring to where he explained that he was his price structure just wasn't cutting it to make it work, that really gets to the variables that sometimes change, i.e., price of 40 kWh + batteries). I think in someways Dala is a kind of ambassador into the future. I know I will keep supporting what he does in the hopes that that investment on his part will lead to significant financial rewards for him down the road.


Here are pictures of how my Leaf station wagon with cheapo racks functions on a daily basis. It's so fugly, and I love it!

Aloha and Mahalo!