What is the demand level for Leaf now ?

[evnow]

Now that we are at one year mark since Leaf deliveries started, where do you think the demand is at ?

- We know 2 SoCal dealers have a couple of dozen unsold "orphans". But rest of the country seems to still sell orphans at a premium.
- Though Nissan has monthly order quotas for each dealer, I've not seen any reports that say people haven't been able to order because a certain dealer didn't have open quota. Have you seen any dealer's quota for a month completed, so they couldn't order the car for you ?

This tells me - the demand under current system of ordering is perhaps about 1,000 a month. Nissan would have to do things differently to drum up the demand when the TN plant goes online.

 

[charlestonleafer]

I think just having inventory will bring more sales. Some people just don't want to order a car and have to wait. I think when people can go to a dealer, pick the model and color they like, and drive home in a few hours we will see more being sold. I think the more there are on the road, the more they will sell as well. I still run into people who don't even know what a Nissan Leaf is. I really believe Nissan is going to sell plenty, especially if they continue to improve.

 

[evnow]

I think just having inventory will bring more sales. Some people just don't want to order a car and have to wait. I think when people can go to a dealer, pick the model and color they like, and drive home in a few hours we will see more being sold.

True - but the question is - given the current ordering system, what is the "demand" ?

Put another way - is the low number of deliveries a reflection of
- low number of orders or
- Nissan has allocated a certain number to US and even though more people want to order, they aren't being allowed to order (not talking about states from which you can't order now)

 

[coqui]

For what it's worth, demand seems high in NC. According to the dealer I used, there were people trying to buy mine out from under me (don't know if that's just a sales tactic or not though). :shock:

 

[mitch672]

Well, I hate to say this, but the more issues I read about not using the heater in the winter, and the temperature affecting the battery packs ability to retain charge (50 mile winter range issues), the more I am thinking about just orphaning my Leaf, which is due to be in next week. I have had some PM's with some other New England reservationists on this forum, and we are all thinking the same thing: Why do we want to trade in perfectly good Prius's, for a car with such limited winter range, and give up creature comforts (like using the heater), the answer is, many of us just don't, and won't be. In my case, the Leaf would be a signifigant downgrade from my 2 year old 2010 Prius Model 5... Might just have to wait until 2013/2014 for the Tesla Model S 240 mile pack version. I need a 1 car solution...

 

[Weatherman]

It really depends on where you are.

Along the southeast Florida coast the demand is very low. But South Floridians were very slow to adopt hybrids and that seems to be extending to EVs, also (there's no excuse about being concerned about limited winter range for EVs, down here).

My guess is that less than two dozen LEAFs have been ordered and sold since the RAQ process was opened up last summer. That's for a metropolitan area of about six million people.

 

[redLEAF]

Well, I hate to say this, but the more issues I read about not using the heater in the winter, and the temperature affecting the battery packs ability to retain charge (50 mile winter range issues), the more I am thinking about just orphaning my Leaf, which is due to be in next week. I have had some PM's with some other New England reservationists on this forum, and we are all thinking the same thing: Why do we want to trade in perfectly good Prius's, for a car with such limited winter range, and give up creature comforts (like using the heater), the answer is, many of us just don't, and won't be. In my case, the Leaf would be a signifigant downgrade from my 2 year old 2010 Prius Model 5... Might just have to wait until 2013/2014 for the Tesla Model S 240 mile pack version. I need a 1 car solution...

Here in a similar climate out in the midwest, we've had both moderately cold and mild days but as I've only had my LEAF for 12 days (about 330 total miles) can only speak of our limited experience. I've only gotten 'concerned' on one trip (35 mile R/T to the airport and back; had 14 miles of range left) but now I've tried driving using ECO versus normal D mode and have seen a significant difference in range -- some folks are getting more like 60 to 75 mile range in colder climates but if you expect/need closer to 75 to 80 on a daily basis I would not (personally) depend on just a LEAF. I won't forgo being 'cold' in the car either but then I have other cars I can use if needed. As to trading a 2 year old car in any case -- I'd wait until at least 3 years unless I really hated the car as that's when you get the most depreciation but that's just me. Some folks are using the LEAF as their sole vehicle and then renting when they need something with longer range -- you could rationalize it that way that during the coldest days you may need to do that as well and see what the extra costs would be based on what the winter season looks for your area. In our case even with 3 driver's; the longest work commute is 44 R/T so even with a lower winter range we were not worried.

 

[adric22]

The Leaf still doesn't have much visibility to the mainstream. There aren't that many on the roads. The dealerships don't usually have any on the lot or in the showroom. If they do, it is just one and it is not for sale because it is a demo. I still run into people all of the time who I talk to about my car and they didn't even know the car was electric until I told them.

While we do see a lot of negativity online (which I've mentioned before) 99% of the people I speak to in person are very excited about the prospect of an EV.

I did write up a whole long list of issues affecting demand in this thread: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=6905

but to re-iterate those:

• Leaf is still not available in all Markets. So current sales are still only a portion of worldwide demand.
  The Leaf has sold over 8,000 units in the USA this year, despite the restricted supply chain, and the year isn't over yet. By comparison, the Toyota Prius only sold 5,600 units in the USA the first year it went on sale, and only 15,600 the next year.
• Just one vehicle sitting on a lot is not an indication of poor sales. How many Toyota Camry's are sitting on your local Toyota dealer's lot?
• The general public is still mostly unaware that such a vehicle exists.
• Many buyers are hesitant to buy a first-year model, much less a first-of-its-kind. The Prius is a good example. Once it became well known and trusted and the myths of the batteries finally were busted, people began to buy the car like crazy.
• The economy is slow for all car sales right now.
• Sales of the Leaf will be affected by gasoline prices. Right now gasoline isn't at $4.00 anymore, but it will eventually return.
• I've heard that while some dealers may have a Leaf on the lot, they are jacking up the sticker price, meaning people would have to choose to pay the extra money, or wait several months to get one. Again, making the Leaf less attractive.
• Nissan is still building the new production plant in the USA with plans to build 150,000 Leafs per year. Surely they wouldn't have these plans if they didn't believe that the demand would be there for it.
• Charging infrastructure is still in its infancy. Most mainstream buyers will hold off until more public charging stations are available.

 

[abasile]

Well, I hate to say this, but the more issues I read about not using the heater in the winter, and the temperature affecting the battery packs ability to retain charge (50 mile winter range issues), the more I am thinking about just orphaning my Leaf, which is due to be in next week. I have had some PM's with some other New England reservationists on this forum, and we are all thinking the same thing: Why do we want to trade in perfectly good Prius's, for a car with such limited winter range, and give up creature comforts (like using the heater), the answer is, many of us just don't, and won't be. In my case, the Leaf would be a signifigant downgrade from my 2 year old 2010 Prius Model 5... Might just have to wait until 2013/2014 for the Tesla Model S 240 mile pack version. I need a 1 car solution...

Assuming the LEAF's range could be adequate for your driving needs, I personally would consider any LEAF to be an upgrade over any Prius, even the most optioned-out model. The LEAF is definitely more fun to drive, and not having that ICE fire up is priceless.

The only time you'd need to consider not running the heater is if you're "stretching" the range, and even then, there are the heated seats and steering wheel. Thankfully, Boston is generally not bitter cold like Chicago or Minneapolis. Garaging the LEAF would make a significant difference in the battery temperature, particularly if the garage has some basic insulation. And then there's the helpful pre-heat feature. (Our 2011 LEAF does not have the Cold Weather Package, we park outdoors, and we're still doing fine up here in the mountains at 6100'.)

However, the Tesla Model S would be great if you don't mind a bit more waiting and more money. For what it is, the Model S seems to be a great value. It's more than we'd personally want to spend on any car, though.

 

[mitch672]

Assuming the LEAF's range could be adequate for your driving needs, I personally would consider any LEAF to be an upgrade over any Prius, even the most optioned-out model. The LEAF is definitely more fun to drive, and not having that ICE fire up is priceless.

The only time you'd need to consider not running the heater is if you're "stretching" the range, and even then, there are the heated seats and steering wheel. Thankfully, Boston is generally not bitter cold like Chicago or Minneapolis. Garaging the LEAF would make a significant difference in the battery temperature, particularly if the garage has some basic insulation. And then there's the helpful pre-heat feature. (Our 2011 LEAF does not have the Cold Weather Package, we park outdoors, and we're still doing fine up here in the mountains at 6100'.)

However, the Tesla Model S would be great if you don't mind a bit more waiting and more money. For what it is, the Model S seems to be a great value. It's more than we'd personally want to spend on any car, though.

Well, I'm in general an "early adopter", but in this case, I don't feel that is the best use of my money, sure I signed up and sent in my $99 deposit, in April of 2010, but given so long to make this decision was not good on Nissan's part, as I have now come to my "senses".

I spend less than $1,000/year on gasoline (Driving 15K miles/year, Prius gets nearly 50mpg most of the time), so even a 3 year lease of a Leaf is going to cost me more than $15K. My 2010 Prius was paid for in cash, no loan... So from an economic standpoint it makes zero sense as well, spend $15K, so I can save $3k in gasoline over the same time period? nope. Even if gasoline doubles, it would be $6K in gas... The other issues just make the decision easier to delay or put off commiting, as I don't need to consider range or not using my heater currently. The fact is, there are better EVs and more choices due out in the next several years, and even though I had my electrical service upgraded, and already have the EVSE (good thing to, as I will be able to get the %30 credit on my 2011 tax filing), I don't feel the need to go out and buy the first production EV, I just don't any longer.

 

[smkettner]

People don't know LEAF is available to sign and drive. JMHO.
Proper advertising probably will not start until ALL dealers have a few.

 

[davewill]

... My 2010 Prius was paid for in cash, no loan... So from an economic standpoint it makes zero sense as well, spend $15K, so I can save $3k in gasoline over the same time period? nope. ...

Makes sense to me. I wouldn't have traded a late model Prius for my LEAF and taken a bath on the depreciation, either. I was driving a gas guzzler not of my own choosing*, and wanted a new car anyway. Wait until you're ready for a new car.

* My wife's commute changed to become really long, and mine was miniscule. So when gas prices spiked in 2008, it just made too much sense (like $300 a month worth) to hand my 2005 Prius over to her and for me to drive the 2003 Pilot she had chosen (over my pleading for her to choose a sedan, ANY sedan). Was I glad to get my LEAF!

 

[earther]

from an economic standpoint it makes zero sense as well, spend $15K, so I can save $3k in gasoline over the same time period? nope.

Opinions on how much this counts for certainly vary, but for me personally, in the gasoline vs electricity issue, it wasn't a factor of the magnitude of the money so much as a concern about *where* the money was going.

 

[Boomer23]

Assuming the LEAF's range could be adequate for your driving needs, I personally would consider any LEAF to be an upgrade over any Prius, even the most optioned-out model. The LEAF is definitely more fun to drive, and not having that ICE fire up is priceless.

The only time you'd need to consider not running the heater is if you're "stretching" the range, and even then, there are the heated seats and steering wheel. Thankfully, Boston is generally not bitter cold like Chicago or Minneapolis. Garaging the LEAF would make a significant difference in the battery temperature, particularly if the garage has some basic insulation. And then there's the helpful pre-heat feature. (Our 2011 LEAF does not have the Cold Weather Package, we park outdoors, and we're still doing fine up here in the mountains at 6100'.)

However, the Tesla Model S would be great if you don't mind a bit more waiting and more money. For what it is, the Model S seems to be a great value. It's more than we'd personally want to spend on any car, though.

Well, I'm in general an "early adopter", but in this case, I don't feel that is the best use of my money, sure I signed up and sent in my $99 deposit, in April of 2010, but given so long to make this decision was not good on Nissan's part, as I have now come to my "senses".

I spend less than $1,000/year on gasoline (Driving 15K miles/year, Prius gets nearly 50mpg most of the time), so even a 3 year lease of a Leaf is going to cost me more than $15K. My 2010 Prius was paid for in cash, no loan... So from an economic standpoint it makes zero sense as well, spend $15K, so I can save $3k in gasoline over the same time period? nope. Even if gasoline doubles, it would be $6K in gas... The other issues just make the decision easier to delay or put off commiting, as I don't need to consider range or not using my heater currently. The fact is, there are better EVs and more choices due out in the next several years, and even though I had my electrical service upgraded, and already have the EVSE (good thing to, as I will be able to get the %30 credit on my 2011 tax filing), I don't feel the need to go out and buy the first production EV, I just don't any longer.

Sorry to hear it, Mitch, after all these months of waiting. I have to agree with abasile, you'll be missing out on a lot of fun driving and being an early EV advocate in your region.

But these are always personal decisions and I wish you the all the best.

 

[zarwin]

Well, I hate to say this, but the more issues I read about not using the heater in the winter, and the temperature affecting the battery packs ability to retain charge (50 mile winter range issues), the more I am thinking about just orphaning my Leaf, which is due to be in next week. I have had some PM's with some other New England reservationists on this forum, and we are all thinking the same thing: Why do we want to trade in perfectly good Prius's, for a car with such limited winter range, and give up creature comforts (like using the heater), the answer is, many of us just don't, and won't be. In my case, the Leaf would be a signifigant downgrade from my 2 year old 2010 Prius Model 5... Might just have to wait until 2013/2014 for the Tesla Model S 240 mile pack version. I need a 1 car solution...

Hate to say it, but if I were you I would certainly not trade in a 2010 Prius for a Leaf. I happen to have both a 2010 Prius and just got a 2012 Leaf, now the wife drives the Prius and I the Leaf. Before that I drove the Prius and she drove a rolling junkyard. The Leaf is an amazingly fun car that I look forward to driving every day, much more than the Prius, but not worth the economic sacrifice to trade one for the other. Even losing the $7500 tax credit by holding out a few years would probably be the better choice.

Also if anyone is interested, some trivial things I notice going back and forth between a 2010 Prius and 2012 Leaf are:

-First the obvious. The acceleration in the Leaf is far better than the Prius...

-Prius steering has MUCH more resistance. This is neither good nor bad, just very noticeable.

-Leaf feels tighter on the road, but not by a huge margin

-While the R-N-D shifters are laid out the same way, I would kill to have the Prius shifter in the Leaf. Love the Prius shifter.

-Prius has a very cold steering wheel on a cold day LOVE the heated wheel in the Leaf!

-Center console in the Prius (behind the shifter) was designed by a complete utter idiot that has no concept of functional design. Trivial, but the Leaf is much better here as are almost all other cars, I would guess.

-Prius has a crappy horn that is 10000X better than the Leaf horn.

Those are just some of the mostly insignificant things I notice.

 

[Ingineer]

I'm a happy Prius owner, but there is no comparison between the two for me. The Leaf is a much better driving car and is way more fun, but the main reason I bought a Leaf is to support the burgeoning EV movement. Even if it costs me more, I am happy to be buying my transportation fuel locally and somewhat more sustainably than if I were continue to support foreign oil.

If everyone decides to base their decisions just on the cost analysis, you have to take into account the future as well, which admittedly is hard to do. If you continue to sink all your money into foreign and non-sustainable oil now, eventually you (and we all) will be screwed when oil gets harder and harder to extract/purchase and the costs suddenly spiral out of control causing unprecedented economic devastation. If we make better choices now and do all we can to support alternatives, even if it means spending more, then the future will pay dividends to us all!

We must show the world that we can have a viable alternative now, even if we have to sacrifice a little!

-Phil

 

[Drivesolo]

I'm a happy Prius owner, but there is no comparison between the two for me. The Leaf is a much better driving car and is way more fun, but the main reason I bought a Leaf is to support the burgeoning EV movement. Even if it costs me more, I am happy to be buying my transportation fuel locally and somewhat more sustainably than if I were continue to support foreign oil.

If everyone decides to base their decisions just on the cost analysis, you have to take into account the future as well, which admittedly is hard to do. If you continue to sink all your money into foreign and non-sustainable oil now, eventually you (and we all) will be screwed when oil gets harder and harder to extract/purchase and the costs suddenly spiral out of control causing unprecedented economic devastation. If we make better choices now and do all we can to support alternatives, even if it means spending more, then the future will pay dividends to us all!

We must show the world that we can have a viable alternative now, even if we have to sacrifice a little!

-Phil

+1

 

[coqui]

Ingineer,
+1 on everything you've said....well said btw.

What amazes me is how many of us have Prius's as a second car.

Hard to tell the future of course and everything will probably be fine, but if certain middle eastern countries and their saber rattling ever escalates, how valuable would a Leaf be then?

 

[edatoakrun]

I think that future BEV demand will strongly correlate with operating costs vs ICEVs.

IMO, you are taking a huge risk of very high costs of ownership, when you buy an ICEV today, due not only to variable gas costs, but also uncertain (and possibly extreme) future depreciation, as the mass market slowly comes to appreciate the many advantages of gas-free BEV driving.

In the shorter term, I expect the number of LEAF "orphans" will decline rapidly, if the usual seasonal gas spike occurs this Spring. I think the article below, gives an accurate outlook of likely short-term gas prices.

..In California, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.666 on Thursday, up 8.1 cents from a week earlier and up 33.1 cents from a year earlier, which had been a record price for this time of year, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report. Nationally, a gallon of regular was averaging $3.319, up 6.5 cents from a week earlier. That topped 2011's record-setting start by 24.2 cents a gallon....

"Somewhere between the Grammys and the Oscars, the gasoline market and perhaps the crude market will trend considerably higher," Kloza wrote in his blog, Speaking of Oil.

Kloza cited three potential causes: "International worries about a second Arab Spring will combine with domestic concerns about U.S. refinery maintenance and the closure of at least two critical East Coast refineries" to push prices higher.

In addition, U.S. refiners have been exporting record amounts of diesel fuel as they pursue profits from foreign buyers, causing an increase in diesel production at the expense of gasoline production. Tighter gasoline supplies mean higher prices.

History isn't on the side of U.S. consumers. Kloza said that U.S. average gasoline prices have jumped in 11 of the last 12 years, to the record-high average of $3.514 a gallon for all of 2011. Oil prices are also starting the year on the move, another discouraging signal for gasoline prices, Kloza said...

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-gas-prices-20120106,0,2326955.story" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[mitch672]

I'm a happy Prius owner, but there is no comparison between the two for me. The Leaf is a much better driving car and is way more fun, but the main reason I bought a Leaf is to support the burgeoning EV movement. Even if it costs me more, I am happy to be buying my transportation fuel locally and somewhat more sustainably than if I were continue to support foreign oil.

If everyone decides to base their decisions just on the cost analysis, you have to take into account the future as well, which admittedly is hard to do. If you continue to sink all your money into foreign and non-sustainable oil now, eventually you (and we all) will be screwed when oil gets harder and harder to extract/purchase and the costs suddenly spiral out of control causing unprecedented economic devastation. If we make better choices now and do all we can to support alternatives, even if it means spending more, then the future will pay dividends to us all!

We must show the world that we can have a viable alternative now, even if we have to sacrifice a little!

-Phil

Thats all well and good for California, Florida, and other "warm/temperate" areas of the country, in the "cold weather" Northern and Northeast states, we have issues with battery pack capacity reduction (due to low tempatures), usage of the cabin heater (further reducing range). I have none of these issues with my 2 year old 2010 Prius, so its more than just wanting to "support" the EV movement, which is obvious I do, since I signed up on 4/20/2010, and have been waiting nearly 2 years. I just think after reading about all of the cold weather related issues, perhaps waiting for a Tesla Model S 240 mile pack version, with a larger, thermaly managed battery pack would probably be a better choice for me in the Northeast, rather than buying the very fist BEV availble (which I gladly would have done, had nearly 2 years not passed, and I've had considerably more time to ponder this decision). I am not married, and already have 2 vehicles, the 2010 Prius, and a 1994 Suburban that gets 12MPG I plow the 200' driveway and parking lot with.. adding a third vehicle is out of the question, using the 94 Suburban that gets 12MPG as a backup to the Leaf is possible, but that has over 200K miles on it, and I'd rather not use it for anything other than plowing... A 2012 Leaf cannot replace my Prius, so I'm probably just going to wait it out for a few years.