jlv
Well-known member
Where do you see that it was "pulled"? The recall is being addressed by an OTA update.DougWantsALeaf said:
TSLA corporate outlook
- Thread starter edatoakrun
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DougWantsALeaf
Well-known member
My understanding of the article was that "full self driving" was being turned off from all users until the issue is fixed (over ota). Normal autopilot would still work I assume.
The question is whether the government will ask to review before it is relaunched.
The question is whether the government will ask to review before it is relaunched.
danrjones
Well-known member
So here is a question... Elon (and maybe Tesla) have this picture of the future where fleets of FSD robot taxi's are roaming around... where tesla basically won't "sell" cars anymore, and none of us will buy cars; we will be booking rides, or maybe have a subscription for rides.
Who here believes in that? I personally think Elon underestimates how much American's love cars, specifically, love owning cars.
While i do think FSD - eventually - will be successful, and hence robot taxi's will be a real thing, I don't believe he understands Americans.
My generation might use a robot taxi now and then, in leu of any other taxi or ride share, but I don't see us giving up the ownership aspect.
Elon would argue that we will, because it will be so much cheaper. I'm sure it will be cheaper, but that still may be a flawed argument.
Most people have passion for their cars. They WANT to own a car, or truck. Even if it costs more. The American dream isn't owning a house with a white picket fence and an empty garage. I could ride a bicycle and it would be even cheaper, but I don't want to. I *want* a car and a truck.
I even have asked my son if he cares about owning his own vehicle - he is 13 - and no surprise, he absolutely wants to own his own car / truck.
Maybe, someday, Elon will be right, but I think he is several generations away from people not wanting to own a car.
And If he's wrong, FSD is worth money, but a lot less... It means a 25k vehicle *IS* important for tesla, unlike Elon's latest comments. Consumers want to buy one, from Tesla, or someone else. I don't think he gets that.
Who here believes in that? I personally think Elon underestimates how much American's love cars, specifically, love owning cars.
While i do think FSD - eventually - will be successful, and hence robot taxi's will be a real thing, I don't believe he understands Americans.
My generation might use a robot taxi now and then, in leu of any other taxi or ride share, but I don't see us giving up the ownership aspect.
Elon would argue that we will, because it will be so much cheaper. I'm sure it will be cheaper, but that still may be a flawed argument.
Most people have passion for their cars. They WANT to own a car, or truck. Even if it costs more. The American dream isn't owning a house with a white picket fence and an empty garage. I could ride a bicycle and it would be even cheaper, but I don't want to. I *want* a car and a truck.
I even have asked my son if he cares about owning his own vehicle - he is 13 - and no surprise, he absolutely wants to own his own car / truck.
Maybe, someday, Elon will be right, but I think he is several generations away from people not wanting to own a car.
And If he's wrong, FSD is worth money, but a lot less... It means a 25k vehicle *IS* important for tesla, unlike Elon's latest comments. Consumers want to buy one, from Tesla, or someone else. I don't think he gets that.
WetEV
Well-known member
Part 573 Safety Recall Report 22V-037 said:
WetEV
Well-known member
If you have not read this, I suggest it.
https://www.consumerreports.org/automotive-industry/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-and-dangers-of-wishful-thinking-a8114459525/
If you like that, you will love this:
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/elon-musk-attacking-the-press-will-not-make-him-right-about-fsd-180637.html
https://www.consumerreports.org/automotive-industry/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-and-dangers-of-wishful-thinking-a8114459525/
If you like that, you will love this:
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/elon-musk-attacking-the-press-will-not-make-him-right-about-fsd-180637.html
danrjones said:
I think you're absolutely correct on both points. Vehicle ownership is going to be a behaviour pattern unless alternative becomes not only cheap but also near immediate in availability. Given the large distances and rural areas in the US I can't see a future where I can get a self driven taxi nearly as quickly as I can step into my car and drive. The convenience factor or lack there of will continue to kill this concept. There may be a higher adoption rate in high population density cities, countries etc.
25K car... yes he/she who gets this will win the market which currently remains untapped although LEAF comes pretty close after the incentives/rebates etc. Elon has his eyes on another segment. No right or wrong about this. Its simply a business call he & Tesla are making.
Look at China... A staggering 2.91 million EV put on the road just last year. Tesla makes cars there and affluent folks over there who can afford them are snapping them up. Still, growth in the majority of that market and the rest of Asia will come through those lower cost vehicles...
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electric-cars-in-China/China-EV-sales-more-than-doubled-to-record-2.9m-last-year2#:~:text=China%20is%20estimated%20to%20account,rose%2087%25%20to%20430%2C000%20units.
The Leaf S is, last I knew, more like a $22k car after rebates.
DougWantsALeaf
Well-known member
If NJ, CO, and other states with incentives, if you can buy for msrp and qualify for the fed rebate..the S is well under 20K before taxes.
jlv
Well-known member
That's not correct. The article just says "the function" (rolling stop) will be disabled via an OTA to be released this month.DougWantsALeaf said:
Of course, why they allowed such a stupid feature in the first place is just beyond understanding.
It's going to depend on where you live. If you live in a high density urban environment, it might make perfect sense to use a robotaxi. If you live in the rural Midwest or most of the west, you aren't going to be satisfied with waiting for your ride to show up. Urban sprawl works against the concept as well. It will also depend on just how cheap a robotaxi is. Even at a $1/mi, the cost adds up quickly, If the cost is down to $.50/mi, then you get into tossup territory. At $.25/mi. you could probably get a lot of takers. Buying and operating a new car might cost $.60-$.70/mi but the convenience factor weighs heavily. A used car would be cheaper and even the IRS allowance is .585/mi. so my guesstimates probably aren't too far off the mark. A robotaxi with a high utilization,rate, low enough build cost and low insurance costs due to automated operation might make it to $.25-$.30/mi operating cost. Tesla has it's own captive insurance for a reason. In any case, it's going to be an urban phenonium,danrjones said:
DougWantsALeaf said:
No
And "fixed" is a judgement call. Go outside and watch people drive. Are they all "broken" ?
I hate being the passenger when my wife drives, because she drives much "safer" than just about everybody else on the road. It causes no end of problems for her because other drivers misinterpret her intentions. She ends up getting cut off repeatedly when she tries to change lanes or cross 4-way stops.
Truly safe driving is not just slavishly following rules. The driver has to also (within an SD or so) drive like others on the road in terms of speed and behavior.
I'd say that at least 40% of them are "significantly damaged."
The argument here now seems to be, taking opinions from all Tesla fans, that self driving is a vast improvement over human driving, and thus safer, and that it is 'only human' and should be cut some slack.
The argument here now seems to be, taking opinions from all Tesla fans, that self driving is a vast improvement over human driving, and thus safer, and that it is 'only human' and should be cut some slack.
I'm not sure who that "dog whistle" would be directed toward, here. And yes, I do know what the term means. In any case, I was just poking a little fun.
The pertinent question is "When does FSD become better than 95% of all drivers?" It will probably eventually be better than that but that is what the insurance companies are waiting for. For miles while engaged, FSD is already twice as safe as the average driver. That currently includes a driver at the wheel who has been hand-picked by Tesla but it is only a matter of time before driver intervention is unnecessary. FSD doesn't need to be perfect, Just better than most people. Once that happens and insurance companies start giving discounts for cars with FSD capability because it lowers their costs then FSD will quickly become a standard option or even standard equipment.LeftieBiker said:
goldbrick
Well-known member
There are still open questions in my mind:
who pays when FSD fails? -- the car owner/driver, the car company, the insurance company?
what happens when FSD breaks? -- no mechanical or electrical part lasts forever. Eventually parts will fail. How is that handled?
And my biggest concern.....I write firmware that controls mechanical parts. It's like FSD for a product (not a car). I'd guess 90% of the code and development effort go into handling the <1% of cases when something goes wrong, Sensors fail and the code must be able to handle those conditions. Any engineer knows that the final 1% of improvement takes 90% of the effort on a lot of projects. I'd say FSD will certainly fit into this category.
who pays when FSD fails? -- the car owner/driver, the car company, the insurance company?
what happens when FSD breaks? -- no mechanical or electrical part lasts forever. Eventually parts will fail. How is that handled?
And my biggest concern.....I write firmware that controls mechanical parts. It's like FSD for a product (not a car). I'd guess 90% of the code and development effort go into handling the <1% of cases when something goes wrong, Sensors fail and the code must be able to handle those conditions. Any engineer knows that the final 1% of improvement takes 90% of the effort on a lot of projects. I'd say FSD will certainly fit into this category.
It will be the insurance companies paying. That's why the payoff for FSD will require it to be better than 95% of the drivers out there. Keep in mind that the worst 10% cause most of the accidents. Eliminating them reaps windfall profits for insurance companies. If there's a demonstrable flaw in the software then the manufacturer will be on the hook. Lots of money for the lawyers to fight over.goldbrick said:
WetEV
Well-known member
johnlocke said:
This probably isn't true.
The miles with FSD engaged tend to be safer than average miles for average drivers. So the comparison is at minimum misleading.
The question of "safe enough" is very complex, at minimum.
A "FSD" that isn't as safe as an average driver might be "safe enough" for a disabled driver, to improve their mobility. With limits on driving conditions, hours and speeds to keep the risk at a minimum.
WetEV said:
I agree with this. I compare FSD to overall highway driving stats. At least for now.
IIRC Tesla is able to compare similar roads in Tesla cars with and without FSD, but I'm not really convinced by the method since there must be heavy selection bias. Tesla probably has a big enough fleet of cars with and without FSD to reach statistically meaningful results that *to a degree* remove the selection bias.
Tesla's figures are for Teslas with and without FSD engaged. I would admit that there is a a bias in that Tesla only picks drivers for FSD that meet their standards. Esurance stats indicate that there is 1 accident per 366,000 miles driven The Tesla's stat's are 1,820,000 mi driven per accident without any active safety features engaged. With active safety features engaged but without FSD, it rises to 2,700,000 miles per accident. With FSD engaged it's 4,100,000 miles per accident. It appears that Teslas either have a much better class of drivers overall or they are inherently safer to start with. While the FSD miles are biased toward freeway miles which are safer overall, the general case stat's for Teslas are not. By the numbers it would appear that you are 5-10 times safer in a Tesla than your average car.SageBrush said:
