TSLA corporate outlook

[johnlocke]

GCR:

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...al-funds-open-tesla-supercharger-to-other-evs

Don't expect Chademo connectors at Supercharger sites. Expect to see a few CCS stations at one end of the lot. Musk will install just enough CCS cables to qualify for funding. Later on Tesla will go back and expand the footprint and add more superchargers after federal funding has paid for the infrastructure and hard costs. They buy a big lot and only pave enough for a few stations but install high capacity grid connections. Later they pave over more of the lot and install prefabricated Superchargers.

I don 't expect CHAdeMO, as I consider that a dying standard in the US, and the infrastructure bill as well as the EA settlement 3rd and 4th increments only require CCS. What I expect is that Tesla will, once they no longer make up the majority of U.S. BEV sales and public chargers, switch over their new cars to CCS, and gradually replace Tesla connectors with CCS at existing stations. It seems they may already be making provision for that in the Model S/X update, redesigning the charge door and making it bigger. IEVS:

In addition to the matrix headlights and redesigned taillights, you can see that the Model S has a new charge port. It's bigger, and there's no more LED lighted ring. According to Teslarati, the port seems to have enough space for a CCD [Sic.] adapter.

https://insideevs.com/news/571179/tesla-model-s-plaid-refresh-deliveries/

If you've got room for a CCS to Tesla adapter, then you've also got room to install a CCS receptacle itself. It seems that's already the case in Europe with CCS-2, and I anticipate them doing so here once their first mover advantage with the SC network loses its value:

See Refreshed Tesla Model X With CCS2 Port Spotted In Norway
Both the refreshed Model S and Model X will be natively compatible with the CCS2 charging standard in Europe.

https://insideevs.com/news/562309/tesla-modelx-ccs2-spotted-norway/

Tesla has a major advantage in North America with the Supercharger system. Don't expect Tesla to give in and go to CCS anytime soon in North America. They did it in Europe only because they were forced by regulations to do so. Tesla could market a CCS adaptor for North America if they wanted to. The CCS to Tesla adaptor for European models uses a different style CCS plug than than the one used in North America. IF CCS does become commonplace in the US, then Tesla could throw in a CCS to Tesla adaptor designed for the US and have the best of both worlds. I expect that Tesla will simply add CCS chargers to it's current locations and charge non-Tesla vehicles at a higher rate then Tesla cars. Musk has said that Tesla wouldn't turn the Superchargers into a profit center but nothing says he won't use non-Tesla chargers to defray costs.

 

[GRA]

Tesla has a major advantage in North America with the Supercharger system. Don't expect Tesla to give in and go to CCS anytime soon in North America. They did it in Europe only because they were forced by regulations to do so. Tesla could market a CCS adaptor for North America if they wanted to. The CCS to Tesla adaptor for European models uses a different style CCS plug than than the one used in North America. IF CCS does become commonplace in the US, then Tesla could throw in a CCS to Tesla adaptor designed for the US and have the best of both worlds. I expect that Tesla will simply add CCS chargers to it's current locations and charge non-Tesla vehicles at a higher rate then Tesla cars. Musk has said that Tesla wouldn't turn the Superchargers into a profit center but nothing says he won't use non-Tesla chargers to defray costs.

I agree that the SC network gives them a major advantage NOW, but as I noted that advantage will sharply wane once they no longer make up the majority of BEVs sold, and most cars and chargers here are CCS. It's not a matter of if but when CCS chargers and cars become commonplace, and shortly thereafter dominant here.

I'm aware that the CCS-2 plug is different in Europe, but as both CCS-1 and -2 are just the local AC plug-receptacle with a couple of extra pins added below for DC, and CCS-2 is larger than CCS-1, giving U.S. market cars CCS-1 receptacles shouldn't be an issue; if the same door can admit CCS-2 it should admit CCS-1: https://images.app.goo.gl/mAdb7nZPKgFWzypLA

 

[johnlocke]

Tesla has a major advantage in North America with the Supercharger system. Don't expect Tesla to give in and go to CCS anytime soon in North America. They did it in Europe only because they were forced by regulations to do so. Tesla could market a CCS adaptor for North America if they wanted to. The CCS to Tesla adaptor for European models uses a different style CCS plug than than the one used in North America. IF CCS does become commonplace in the US, then Tesla could throw in a CCS to Tesla adaptor designed for the US and have the best of both worlds. I expect that Tesla will simply add CCS chargers to it's current locations and charge non-Tesla vehicles at a higher rate then Tesla cars. Musk has said that Tesla wouldn't turn the Superchargers into a profit center but nothing says he won't use non-Tesla chargers to defray costs.

I agree that the SC network gives them a major advantage NOW, but as I noted that advantage will sharply wane once they no longer make up the majority of BEVs sold, and most cars and chargers here are CCS. It's not a matter of if but when CCS chargers and cars become commonplace, and shortly thereafter dominant here.

I'm aware that the CCS-2 plug is different in Europe, but as both CCS-1 and -2 are just the local AC plug-receptacle with a couple of extra pins added below for DC, and CCS-2 is larger than CCS-1, giving U.S. market cars CCS-1 receptacles shouldn't be an issue; if the same door can admit CCS-2 it should admit CCS-1: https://images.app.goo.gl/mAdb7nZPKgFWzypLA

It will take 10 years or more before the majority of cars sold will be electric. Even with mandates that all cars sold are zero emission, it will take 20-25 years to get all the gasser's off the road. If CCS does become the preferred solution, all Tesla has to do is throw in an adaptor. There will still be millions of Tesla's on the road and their drivers may still prefer Superchargers over a CCS station even if the adaptor is available. Not having to wait for an open CCS by going to a less used Supercharger reserved for Tesla owners could remain an incentive. I don't see any real incentive for Tesla to switch to CCS unless it becomes a mandated regulatory change.

 

[GRA]

Tesla has a major advantage in North America with the Supercharger system. Don't expect Tesla to give in and go to CCS anytime soon in North America. They did it in Europe only because they were forced by regulations to do so. Tesla could market a CCS adaptor for North America if they wanted to. The CCS to Tesla adaptor for European models uses a different style CCS plug than than the one used in North America. IF CCS does become commonplace in the US, then Tesla could throw in a CCS to Tesla adaptor designed for the US and have the best of both worlds. I expect that Tesla will simply add CCS chargers to it's current locations and charge non-Tesla vehicles at a higher rate then Tesla cars. Musk has said that Tesla wouldn't turn the Superchargers into a profit center but nothing says he won't use non-Tesla chargers to defray costs.

I agree that the SC network gives them a major advantage NOW, but as I noted that advantage will sharply wane once they no longer make up the majority of BEVs sold, and most cars and chargers here are CCS. It's not a matter of if but when CCS chargers and cars become commonplace, and shortly thereafter dominant here.

I'm aware that the CCS-2 plug is different in Europe, but as both CCS-1 and -2 are just the local AC plug-receptacle with a couple of extra pins added below for DC, and CCS-2 is larger than CCS-1, giving U.S. market cars CCS-1 receptacles shouldn't be an issue; if the same door can admit CCS-2 it should admit CCS-1: https://images.app.goo.gl/mAdb7nZPKgFWzypLA

It will take 10 years or more before the majority of cars sold will be electric. Even with mandates that all cars sold are zero emission, it will take 20-25 years to get all the gasser's off the road. If CCS does become the preferred solution, all Tesla has to do is throw in an adaptor. There will still be millions of Tesla's on the road and their drivers may still prefer Superchargers over a CCS station even if the adaptor is available. Not having to wait for an open CCS by going to a less used Supercharger reserved for Tesla owners could remain an incentive. I don't see any real incentive for Tesla to switch to CCS unless it becomes a mandated regulatory change.

Then we disagree. It isn't a matter of when the majority of cars become electric, it's when the majority of BEV sales here are equipped with CCS, and that's a much closer timeline. CCS is the preferred solution NOW for all non-Tesla BEVs (the remaining CHAdeMO-equipped cars sales are too small to matter), so it's just a question of when all those CCS-equipped car's annual sales overtake Tesla's, and with the Big Three's BEV pickups likely appearing around the same time if not before the Cybertruck does, I expect the sales ratios to start a rapid shift.

Tesla's #1 because they've largely had the market to themselves for expensive, minimal compromise vs. an ICE BEVs, but that's no longer the case. If they convert them gradually to CCS the SCs can become a profit-making sideline for Tesla, or they could just sell them to someone else to operate. Remember the justification for building the SC network: "We can't afford to wait for someone else to do it". Now, lots of someone else(s) are doing it, backed by the U.S. government, so why would they want to devote money and time to keep operating them, when they will provide an ever-diminishing advantage?

 

[danrjones]

Tesla quality woes continue...

https://www.carscoops.com/2022/03/tesla-tried-to-deliver-a-brand-new-131k-model-x-plaid-with-mismatched-tires/

 

[OldManCan]

honestly... sigh... the tire thing is just dumb. citing supply issues and sending out a 1000HP monster with mismatching tires is asking for trouble. All the while they could have sent someone out to the neighborhood tire rack and gotten a matching set... What worries me more is the continued overall build quality issues. first couple years they got a pass on these but after so many years in the line and especially with their top of the line flagship vehicle these are not excusable anymore.

Edit - I see Tesla Berlin just got approved (conditional) for commercial production. It will be interesting to see the quality difference between a US made Tesla vs German made Tesla...

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/04/tesla-factory-in-germany-gains-approval-to-start-commercial-production.html

 

[danrjones]

Overnight Tesla raised prices, another $1k on the long range model 3 and model y.

I wouldn't consider either of them affordable for an average family.

 

[frontrangeleaf]

Although I've gotten pushback from various Tesla fans on other boards saying this, all Teslas today are luxury vehicles, competing in a different space from "mainstream" cars.

I would cross-shop a model 3 against the BMW 3/4 series and similar, not a Mazda 3 hatchback. The Mazda 3 I cross-shopped against the Leaf. They're different markets.

Agree regarding Tesla's on-going quality woes. At some point, being the technical leader, which they are on many fronts, will not matter enough, and they will crater if they don't improve. But they have a substantial lead on the technical side of things for now. Remains to be seen if the other major manufacturers can catch up quickly.

Tesla is changing the terms of competition to some extent. So yes, I wouldn't buy a Tesla today given their quality concerns, but then, the major manufacturers also need to prove that they can do BEVs well. That data point is still out in my book. We bought the Leaf for many reasons, and the above observations played a role.

 

[OldManCan]

Although I've gotten pushback from various Tesla fans on other boards saying this, all Teslas today are luxury vehicles, competing in a different space from "mainstream" cars.

I would cross-shop a model 3 against the BMW 3/4 series and similar, not a Mazda 3 hatchback. The Mazda 3 I cross-shopped against the Leaf. They're different markets.

Agree regarding Tesla's on-going quality woes. At some point, being the technical leader, which they are on many fronts, will not matter enough, and they will crater if they don't improve. But they have a substantial lead on the technical side of things for now. Remains to be seen if the other major manufacturers can catch up quickly.

Tesla is changing the terms of competition to some extent. So yes, I wouldn't buy a Tesla today given their quality concerns, but then, the major manufacturers also need to prove that they can do BEVs well. That data point is still out in my book. We bought the Leaf for many reasons, and the above observations played a role.

Completely agree on all points. Very well said.

All new-comers to the BEV market will have their teething pains and learnings. Would not want to buy a gen 1 car right now. I look at next 3-4 years as the time I will reevaluate where I am and my 2022 LEAF by then will be ready to be passed down to one of my kids etc. Perhaps the only exception could be the Ariya considering the vast experience Nissan has behind it. Will be curious to see if they can hit the ball out the park with Ariya coming in as a gen 1 car but with LEAF experience and learnings.

 

[Nubo]

Tesla quality woes continue...

https://www.carscoops.com/2022/03/tesla-tried-to-deliver-a-brand-new-131k-model-x-plaid-with-mismatched-tires/

Mistakes happen, but the biggest part of this is that nobody at Tesla seems empowered to make things right once they do. Guy is buying your top end vehicle! I would have gotten him a set of matching appropriate tires, whether that means taking them off the production line, off a showroom car, or the local tire shop. "Not in stock", my ass.

 

[jlv]

Mistakes happen, but the biggest part of this is that nobody at Tesla seems empowered to make things right once they do.

If you go beyond the negatively focused article, you'll see that Tesla made things right if you look at the tweets of the actual person who bought the car.

https://twitter.com/EZebroni/status/1502441374645465093

Ethan Joseph @EZebroni · Mar 11
As most of you know, we rejected delivery on March 3rd. The haters said we would be waiting months for a new VIN…well, the wait is over!
@tesla was able to match me with a brand new Model X Plaid straight from Fremont in under 10 days…great team you have
@elonmusk #plaidarmy

 

[danrjones]

A 279 mile model Y?

I would think it would either have to be the new long range version with the 4680s
Or, using 4680's they have a new standard range that they felt was long enough to warrant introduction.

Hopefully the latter, as the former would mean someone was wrong in regards to 4680 improvements.



https://electrek.co/2022/03/13/tesla-launch-model-y-279-mile-range/

 

[Nubo]

Mistakes happen, but the biggest part of this is that nobody at Tesla seems empowered to make things right once they do.

If you go beyond the negatively focused article, you'll see that Tesla made things right if you look at the tweets of the actual person who bought the car.

https://twitter.com/EZebroni/status/1502441374645465093

Ethan Joseph @EZebroni · Mar 11
As most of you know, we rejected delivery on March 3rd. The haters said we would be waiting months for a new VIN…well, the wait is over!
@tesla was able to match me with a brand new Model X Plaid straight from Fremont in under 10 days…great team you have
@elonmusk #plaidarmy

Glad he got his car, but he was still sent home to stew with no assurances beyond a July date. There's a difference between front-line reps being empowered to make things right at the point of contact, and an internal firestorm that makes things right after an embarrassing story goes public.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Then we disagree. It isn't a matter of when the majority of cars become electric, it's when the majority of BEV sales here are equipped with CCS, and that's a much closer timeline. CCS is the preferred solution NOW for all non-Tesla BEVs (the remaining CHAdeMO-equipped cars sales are too small to matter), so it's just a question of when all those CCS-equipped car's annual sales overtake Tesla's, and with the Big Three's BEV pickups likely appearing around the same time if not before the Cybertruck does, I expect the sales ratios to start a rapid shift.

Tesla's #1 because they've largely had the market to themselves for expensive, minimal compromise vs. an ICE BEVs, but that's no longer the case. If they convert them gradually to CCS the SCs can become a profit-making sideline for Tesla, or they could just sell them to someone else to operate. Remember the justification for building the SC network: "We can't afford to wait for someone else to do it". Now, lots of someone else(s) are doing it, backed by the U.S. government, so why would they want to devote money and time to keep operating them, when they will provide an ever-diminishing advantage?

There are several differences between the Supercharger network and the other DCFC stations and networks. One is that the Superchargers are seamless: plug-in, charge, go. No fussing with signing in, cards, payment or the like.
Another is that the Supercharger Stations are integrated into the navigation system. The car knows where they all are and gives real time info on the status of the stations, including how many stalls are available and a rough idea of the line length if all the stalls are in use.

It is hard to overstate how easy it is to use the Supercharger network, compared to the hodge-podge of other DCFC stations. I don't see the CCS networks ever becoming unified, integrated into nav, and as seamless to use as the Superchargers. That may give Tesla an advantage for some time to come, among car buyers in-the-know.

I worry that the frustrations of those trying to use other DCFC stations to travel, and finding them full, broken, or difficult to turn on, will give EVs a bad reputation among those switching from ICE cars and the ubiquitous gas stations. We shall see.

 

[jlv]

Another is that the Supercharger Stations are integrated into the navigation system. The car knows where they all are and gives real time info on the status of the stations, including how many stalls are available and a rough idea of the line length if all the stalls are in use.

That was part of my testing when I drove several EVs back in December. They all badly failed at plotting long distance trips of 400 miles, giving results like 17 hours for the trip, including hours on a level 2 (which was in an ID.4 -- you'd think it would have good data on EA stations).

 

[danrjones]

More Tesla price hikes over night.


I remember just a year or two ago how the curve of $/Kwh was still on a nice decline, and the idea EVs would reach price parity with ICE vehicles was soon to be. Not anymore. Sure, Tesla's are considered a premium brand - except myself, I don't consider them premium, which is why I've refused to buy one. YMMV. But now even the Bolts and Leafs are hard to come by. The idea of a mass market EV with price parity to ICE doesn't seem to be getting closer right now, and that's discouraging.


https://electrek.co/2022/03/14/tesla-increases-prices-whole-lineup-cheapest-electric-csr/

 

[WetEV]

More Tesla price hikes over night.


I remember just a year or two ago how the curve of $/Kwh was still on a nice decline, and the idea EVs would reach price parity with ICE vehicles was soon to be. Not anymore. Sure, Tesla's are considered a premium brand - except myself, I don't consider them premium, which is why I've refused to buy one. YMMV. But now even the Bolts and Leafs are hard to come by. The idea of a mass market EV with price parity to ICE doesn't seem to be getting closer right now, and that's discouraging.


https://electrek.co/2022/03/14/tesla-increases-prices-whole-lineup-cheapest-electric-csr/

Orders have doubled. Like it or not, Tesla is doing the correct thing. Raise prices to keep the order to delivery time from growing too much.

Once production has increased, Tesla will be able to drop prices to sell all that new capacity.

Do note that raw material prices have spiked as well. Especially nickle.

 

[danrjones]

Or, they could turn off orders for awhile instead of being greedy?

Anyway, my issue isn't really with tesla as much as just being discouraged as far as EVs progressing toward mass adoption. This just reinforces the idea EVs are rich people's toys. It (might) be the right thing for Tesla, but in general, more expensive EVs are not the right thing.

I just don't see us getting closer to a $25k 300+ mile EV.

 

[frontrangeleaf]

There are several differences between the Supercharger network and the other DCFC stations and networks. One is that the Superchargers are seamless: plug-in, charge, go. No fussing with signing in, cards, payment or the like.
Another is that the Supercharger Stations are integrated into the navigation system. The car knows where they all are and gives real time info on the status of the stations, including how many stalls are available and a rough idea of the line length if all the stalls are in use.

It is hard to overstate how easy it is to use the Supercharger network, compared to the hodge-podge of other DCFC stations. I don't see the CCS networks ever becoming unified, integrated into nav, and as seamless to use as the Superchargers. That may give Tesla an advantage for some time to come, among car buyers in-the-know.

I worry that the frustrations of those trying to use other DCFC stations to travel, and finding them full, broken, or difficult to turn on, will give EVs a bad reputation among those switching from ICE cars and the ubiquitous gas stations. We shall see.

This.

Not a Tesla fan boy by any measure, although I do appreciate their goals and accomplishments thus far. I'm not inclined to turn driving my car into a video game. Others may feel differently, but that's how the whole "find a charger" thing feels to me.

 

[WetEV]

Or, they could turn off orders for awhile instead of being greedy?

Anyway, my issue isn't really with tesla as much as just being discouraged as far as EVs progressing toward mass adoption. This just reinforces the idea EVs are rich people's toys. It (might) be the right thing for Tesla, but in general, more expensive EVs are not the right thing.

I just don't see us getting closer to a $25k 300+ mile EV.

Turning off orders would be setting the price infinitely high. Isn't that what you don't want?


The solution to high prices and high profits is: high prices and high profits.

High profits will be at least partly spent on new factories and equipment, not only for the actual car assembly but also for the whole supply chain. This will increase capacity, eventually lowering prices and profits.