July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[scottf200]

In that interview Ghosn says these things:

Strong Yen is keeping US LEAF sales down - Nissan is holding back cars because of it.
In August battery production will start in Smyrma.
LEAF production will start by the end of the year.
In September Nissan will switch to a US cost basis and the price of the LEAF will go down which dramatically changes Nissan's cost basis for the LEAF.
Expect to see sales up dramatically starting in September as a result.

Essentially what Ghosn is saying is that Nissan is not interested in increasing the Leaf sales before Smyrna goes online. They have allocated some 600 Leafs to Nissan dealers and they will deliver them. Thats about it.

After September Leaf will be available on the dealer lots and Nissan will aggressively push the sales. I also expect them to spend more money & energy on QC.

So 6 more months of < 1000/month LEAF sales?!?!?! That will not be good in the press articles it seems.

I agree with comments that the CA HOV option has boosted Volt sales but I would have thought the LEAF sales would have been very big as well when they were eligible ... yet the Volt and LEAF were very similar in sales in 2011. None-the-less the cars (ignore the companies) are very different in many many ways but they came out at the same time so the comparison is ingrained.

 

[smkettner]

Don't panic I doubt Volt has gone exponential. I give it three months and it will taper off. Just pent up demand for the HOV stickers I say.

 

[evnow]

By that time they would have lost the market leadership (whatever they had) in this segment to Volt and PiPH

They are not in the same segment. They are hybrids.

FFE is MIA.

 

[spike09]

By that time they would have lost the market leadership (whatever they had) in this segment to Volt and PiPH

They are not in the same segment. They are hybrids.

FFE is MIA.

I Agree. The Nissan Leaf is the market leader in the Electric Car segment. There are no other EVs that will have any market penetration by September. The Mitsubishi i might start selling in the 100's by summmer and by the time the Ford Focus EV and Honda Fit EV have any real market penetation it will be 2013. By then the Leaf will be the dominant segment leader. Who knows who will have the best EV sales figures in 2014 or 2015. I just hope the Toyota RAV4 EV II will be avaiable in Florida by then.

 

[SanDust]

The Nissan Leaf is the market leader in the Electric Car segment.

That's absolutely true, which raises the question of what these low numbers mean for the segment.

 

[Train]

First he starts with the most expensive trim and adds $750 to the cost just for the heck of it. $38000-$7500 = $30500. Add $2000 for installation of L2 EVSE. Admittedly I don't have data here, but that definitely seems like it's on the high side, even for AV units. But fine, let's say Nissan advertises that as a typical cost. $32500. Destination: $850 (?) $33350. Tax? That's going to vary quite a bit state by state. Let's go with 8% though. That's $2668, for a total of $36018, or almost $2000 below the originally stated $38000. That's the naysayers way of thinking though, keep rounding the bad stuff up and the good stuff down. Plus I'm not sure why the average Joe would think that a gas car was exempt from all these fees. The only one in there that is truly extra is the EVSE cost.

Okay, so the other part of that statement was 5 year battery degradation. Again, the hint of truth in there is the 20-30 miles worth of degradation. Yes, there will be degradation. But the generally accepted estimate is 70% (30 miles) after 8 years / 100K miles, not 5 years. I'll grant you that battery longevity was one of my biggest concerns, but after learning of the length of the warranty period I was sold right away. So I doubt that is getting in the way of an educated buyer.

I could go on with many of the rest of Train's points and refute or at least expose the exaggerations, but maybe that's not his point. Maybe his point is, as LTLFT said, is that the general impression of those things are causing a lack of demand, vs. a supply shortage. And that's where the cherry picking comes into play. If that's true, then why did Volt sales rebound so dramatically in March? I know that it's not apples to apples, but if the focus of the average buyer is so much on cost (I think the example given was a $19K Prius C hybrid?) and batteries, then why in the world are people paying MORE than the cost of a LEAF for the Volt? And why don't we see any LEAFs on dealer lots in many areas?

Sorry, I'm not buying the lack of demand argument. I do agree that there are a LOT of people for which the LEAF is definitely not an appropriate vehicle choice. I also agree that there are a LOT of people that haven't done their homework to actually research the issues they are worried about (cost, range, charging time, etc.) But that's fine because I think even if you take those people away there are still enough left over worldwide to soak up the current production capacity of Nissan.

Then make it the base $36,000 model. Indeed, a petrol powered vehicle has destination, tax and the like. But a comparable petrol powered vehicle can be had for $10,000 less, perhaps $12,000. Plus the $2000 (Leaf owners here have paid that much so I don't think I'm exaggerating at all) for 220 hookup.

Again, telling a prospective buyer about possibly getting back $7500 next year (if they qualify for the entire amount) is not something they're going to be yippee skippie about. Seeing a sticker that is $36,00 or $38,000 and then the dealer telling you that reastically, "you will get a 75 mile driving range." "Oh, and the battery degrades over time, too."

It's going to be a deal breaker.

Volt sales "rebounded" because A) It's March, always a high sales month. B) It's not limited to an electric outlet. C) incentives. Like the Prius, it can drive with electric and can drive on petrol. So range is not an issue. But the Volt is still a tough sell simply because it's $41,000. I wouldn't look for 2000 sold next month.

Look, range is going to be and continue to be the biggest bugaboo with EV's. Some don't want to hear that but it's a fact. QC stations will not change that because again, you cannot get the continous range you can with a petrol powered vehicle. Like it or not, your average Joe and Joanne are going to hold that against BEV's. They don't have time nor desire to plan trips so precisely because of the lack of range. They want to get in, go, and think about refueling in 300-400 miles.

We'll only know more about the battery life when five years actually goes by but judging by previous experience with batteries (I know the battery type in the Leaf is different than typical Lithium batteries), I'd guess to say there would be enough difference in reduced range to make me think twice about spending $36,000-$38,000 for a car that's only propulsion system is by stored electricity.

There are plenty of Leafs on dealer lots in CA where EV enthusiasts have already bought their Leaf. The Nissan lots located in the eastern portion of the U.S. that don't have them will sell a handful to, again, enthusiasts. Like they did in CA only there won't be as many people buying them as in CA.

EV sales will continue to trickle. And that's what sales will be in the next few years. Until technology develops to the point where the EV's achilles heel can be addressed, their limited range, they will sell in limited numbers.

The issue I see, is many car buyers HAVE done their homework. The cons outweigh the pros at this point in time. That's not to say it won't change 20 years from now.

 

[Herm]

A limited, medium range electric like the Leaf is very suitable for many places.. the UK, Israel, Japan etc.. a short range electric like the Volt opens up the possibilities to anywhere due to the range extender.. and if GM can lower the cost a couple thousand then it can match a Leaf dollar for dollar. If you dont think of the Volt as an electric just dont fill up the gas tank.. it will work fine without gas.

Volt has a much wider marketing potential, dont be surprised by the sales numbers.

 

[DaveEV]

There are plenty of Leafs on dealer lots in CA where EV enthusiasts have already bought their Leaf. The Nissan lots located in the eastern portion of the U.S. that don't have them will sell a handful to, again, enthusiasts. Like they did in CA only there won't be as many people buying them as in CA.

I'm not sure where you are seeing "plenty" of LEAFs. Checking cars.com, I see approximately this many in stock in these metropolitan areas:

San Diego: 2 (50 mile radius from 92121)
Los Angeles: 51 (75 mile radius from 90001)
San Francisco: 49 (75 mile radius from 94131)

Wow. 101 LEAFs and most of those are probably demo cars. I'd bet that of the 600 Nissan sold last month, 200 of them were sold in California leaving dealers with a 2 week supply. That's very, very tight in the car business.

Let's compare to a higher volume car like the Prius which moves 15k a month

San Diego / Los Angeles / San Francisco / Total
364 / 1415 / 917 / 2696

And the Volt which moved 2k+ last month?
San Diego / Los Angeles / San Francisco / Total
25 / 83 / 64 / 172

Wow - there is like no supply left for the Volt in CA. I suspect that people snatched them up here as quickly as possible now that you can get them AT-PZEV compliant and drive in the carpool lanes.

Judging by the low supply of the Volt in CA, I'm guessing that CA sold a clear majority of the 2000+ that sold last month.

Just for fun, let's look at country wide inventory totals - LEAF / Prius / Volt
723 / 8534 / 4193

Interesting - country wide Prius inventories are very low nationwide - they only have a 2 week supply of them. Typical inventory levels are 60 days worth.

I think I should have picked a more "normal" selling car to compare inventory levels to!

 

[RegGuheert]

EV sales will continue to trickle. And that's what sales will be in the next few years. Until technology develops to the point where the EV's achilles heel can be addressed, their limited range, they will sell in limited numbers.

The issue I see, is many car buyers HAVE done their homework. The cons outweigh the pros at this point in time. That's not to say it won't change 20 years from now.

I agree with your points up until this part. Specifically, I feel you are completely ignoring the supply side of the issue and I don't expect it will take anywhere near 20 years for enough people to change their perceptions to create a massive demand for EVs. Since we've already hashed through the supply issue, let's talk about what will change perceptions.

1) An oil shock. If there is ANY disruption in the supply of gasoline, U.S. drivers will suddenly realize that their choice of vehicle is causing them a lot of inconvenience. Nissan will be there to soak up the demand just like they were in the 1970s as Datsun.

2) Continued or higher gasoline prices. Many don't seem to think it can stay this high or go even higher. It can and it will. Once they realize this is permanent, they will be open to thinking differently.

3) Experience with the Nissan LEAF. One thing I have never liked about most EVs is that they look like tiny little underpowered death traps on wheels. Not safe here in the land of pickup trucks and SUVs. But read LEAF reviews. Nearly every one says, "The LEAF is a real car!". When people experience that first hand, they will start to determine if this car might fit into their situation.

Yes, for many people, today's EVs do not fit. But I can easily see 1% or so of the population every 6 months coming to the realization that these same EVs can and do suit their needs. All without ANY changes to the technology or infrastructure. Of course those will improve, as well.

 

[kmp647]

You can bet many drivers think that these prices MUST be temporary (gas)

mostly people will just choose a newer more efficient version of the car/suv they had before

electric is a large mental jump for 99% of the car buyers. it will take a long long time and many experiences and exposure to the cars before people commit.

I think too a suv cuv electric could help buyers mentally , maybe
RAV4 2 ? EV ?

 

[adric22]

A lot of common folk are not aware of the lease option. That was the only way I could afford the Leaf. The Volt can be had for similar pricing. Sure that is just for 3 years, but you do get the rebate up front which helps a lot. I am not sure if you can Lease the "i" in the same manner. So what I explain to people when they ask about the price of my car, is I do it just like a car salesman does. I don't concentrate on the sticker price. I say the car payment can be under $400 per month, and there will be no gas bill. That is actually a very reasonable cost for most people.

I have a feeling when Nissan is ready to actually sell more of these cars from the TN plant, they will start advertising this fact on TV commercials.

 

[lpickup]

Look, range is going to be and continue to be the biggest bugaboo with EV's. Some don't want to hear that but it's a fact. QC stations will not change that because again, you cannot get the continous range you can with a petrol powered vehicle. Like it or not, your average Joe and Joanne are going to hold that against BEV's. They don't have time nor desire to plan trips so precisely because of the lack of range. They want to get in, go, and think about refueling in 300-400 miles.

If you're talking about John and Joanne's PERCEPTION of range limitations, then I agree. There are certainly many people out there that perceive the LEAFs range to be limiting. I would not say that's everyone though. If this was THE reason (and I know you listed others) for people not buying the LEAF, that would be like saying that 99.998 percent of people felt this way, and there is no way I'm buying that. Even if 75% of people felt that way, 25% of the driving population times the number of those in the market for a new car times those with adequate income to afford the LEAF and qualify for the credit, etc. still accounts for more than the 579 LEAFs sold in March. So again, I'm buying the demand argument here. And as time goes on and word spreads about how appropriate the LEAFs range is for people, the picture only gets better.

If you're talking about the ACTUAL range limitations, then I'm definitely not buying it. We're all aware of the studies that show that 90% of drivers drive fewer than 40 miles / day, and while I think there may be some room for that figure to actually be a little lower, we're still talking about a huge number here. The LEAF is perfect for the average urban or suburanite, multi-car owning family, and potentially perfect for even people that don't quite fit into that segment (although less so of course). I don't see this as a limiting factor at all, and again, certainly not one that gets us all the way down to 579 vehicles sold in a month nationwide, even with your other reasons factored in.

Not that your other reasons don't have any merit. Yes, it's an expensive car (at least up-front cost-wise). Yes, it would be nice to have longer range. Yes, not everyone is going to be able to take advantage of the tax credit, or at least have to wait for it (there are leasing alternatives though that nicely get around this). Yes, the EVSE expense appears to be a significant cost adder (although again, there are far less expensive alternatives--it's too bad Nissan doesn't make people more aware of these, but they are probably contractually bound to only push AV). I think you're taking liberties with your battery argument, but yes, the unknown of the battery lifetime and replacement cost is an issue. And yes, these issues, if not addressed (and I think every one of them will be addressed in the near to 5-years from now future) will certainly limit demand to an extent. But I think I feel that the extent is far less than what you're thinking.

 

[BlueSL]

Look, range is going to be and continue to be the biggest bugaboo with EV's. Some don't want to hear that but it's a fact. QC stations will not change that because again, you cannot get the continous range you can with a petrol powered vehicle. Like it or not, your average Joe and Joanne are going to hold that against BEV's. They don't have time nor desire to plan trips so precisely because of the lack of range. They want to get in, go, and think about refueling in 300-400 miles.

If you're talking about the ACTUAL range limitations, then I'm definitely not buying it. We're all aware of the studies that show that 90% of drivers drive fewer than 40 miles / day, and while I think there may be some room for that figure to actually be a little lower, we're still talking about a huge number here. The LEAF is perfect for the average urban or suburanite, multi-car owning family, and potentially perfect for even people that don't quite fit into that segment (although less so of course). I don't see this as a limiting factor at all, and again, certainly not one that gets us all the way down to 579 vehicles sold in a month nationwide, even with your other reasons factored in.

How many people in the Bay Area own an SUV with 4WD because they go skiing in Tahoe twice a year? LOTS. Some years, chains and/or 4WD are not even needed -- it just depends on the weekend you choose to go. Yet people keep driving their inefficient SUVs because they like knowing they will not get stranded. If people buy 4WD vehicles just to avoid the chance that they would need to put on chains twice a year, imagine what the Leaf must overcome to entice a buyer who has range in mind.

Train is right about the range issue. You can tell yourself that you got over the mental hurdle and therefore it should not exist, but many people cannot. For me, I need the car to go 100 miles at freeway speeds without a second charge. I will not get another Leaf when my lease expires if it cannot meet this threshold.

 

[adric22]

I made a new chart, a little easier to read if wanting to compare monthly sales between vehicles.

 

[kmp647]

what gets me is evrything plugs in today, and I mean everything in the average joe publics life, but your car, you PLUG IN your car.......... how? I mean in the wall or what? duh........... where does the gas go?????????? Can you drive it at night?
so how do you get to work?

I am serious , these are the responses I get. I call it gas on the brain. same senario 5 years ago at the R/C airplane park/field.

Me : 3 planes all electric lipo power, great power ,3 minutes from arriving I am in the air, nearly silent beautiful performance(pattern ship)
multiple flights no issues. no smell no greasy planes, no dead stick landings

typical r/c guy: 1 or 2 old school nitro or gas powered planes, leaky fuel tanks, smelled up car, lots of time spent in the pits
starting and tuning engines , less performance , smaller prop size, less thrust, more noise(complaints) engine dies, dead stick landing , bent gear or worse. Less overall air time , more clean up time.

today electric power is most common at most fields, although some stick to nitro
on the cars and rc trucks electric was once shunned... no more, they have 100mph rc electric cars , because of lipo/brushless tech


took awhile and will take longer for real cars , and planes to be lipo and accepted

 

[lpickup]

How many people in the Bay Area own an SUV with 4WD because they go skiing in Tahoe twice a year? LOTS.

That's fine. How many of those people is the SUV their ONLY car (maybe it is, I really don't know, I am asking this as a legitimate question, not a rhetorical one). The point I'm getting at is if it's a 2 (or more) car household, can ONE of the cars be replaced with a LEAF? Next, just do an informal survey of the cars driving around the Bay area. Are they ALL 4WD SUVs? For those that are not, could those vehicles conceivably be replaced by a LEAF or other BEV100 vehicle?

I don't deny it's a huge hurdle for people. But I think that (a) it's mainly a mental (as opposed to actual) hurdle and (b) it's not as widespread as it's being made out to be. Sure, practically EVERYONE I've talked to about my LEAF has asked about its range, but once I explain that you start each day out with a full charge and a typically daily drive is XX miles (well within that range) and then they start calculating what their ACTUAL daily use is, they usually admit that it would be workable for them. I rarely get the response that it just won't work at all.

So sure, it takes a sales pitch to get them over that hurdle. But on the other hand they have to ask what the range is anyway, so hopefully wherever they are getting that information they are also being supplied with said sales pitch.

I just don't think the mental hurdle is so widespread that it alone accounts for such a dramatic lack of LEAF sales.

And now that we've seen the various videos of Ghosn from the NY auto show I'm even more convinced that they're simply allocating more LEAFs to Japan because they are going to make more profit in that market, and they are waiting for Sept to increase allocations to the US. This would also explain why they are not being as tight-lipped about new features in the 2013 model that could potentially hurt 2012 sales.

 

[SanDust]

I rarely get the response that it just won't work at all.

Different experience. This is the response I always get. Most people seem to think they need to go 500 miles or something.

After a year of driving the Leaf my thinking is going in a different direction. Range hasn't been an issue for me. There have been a couple of times when I've been concerned that I wouldn't be able to make it home, but once you're familiar with the car that disappears. You know what will work and what won't, and you act accordingly.

But you do have to think about it. You have to make sure it's plugged in and sometimes I find myself on Google Maps figuring out how far some place is. That's doable but I'm coming to the conclusion that I don't want to always be so concerned about charging and range. A larger capacity batter would help, but I'm not sure I'll replace the Leaf with another BEV when the lease runs out.

 

[tps]

While range is an important issue for some, it's mostly an imagined issue for others. That's just the way the human mind works: fear of the unknown. As more and more electric cars take to the road, the average person will become more comfortable about it. Right now many people have never seen an electric car, it's way out of their comfort zone. Anytime anyone does something new, the first step is not actually doing it, but forming a mental picture of themselves doing it. I didn't really completely form that picture in my mind until last April when I drove the Hertz rental LEAF the first time. Once I drove the LEAF for more than the few minutes I'd done at the drive electric event a couple weeks earlier, I not only had no problem picturing myself in the LEAF, but I "got it" regarding the many advantages of an EV over an ICE car. I have the utmost respect for those of you who were able to form the mental image well enough to actually order the car with only the tour drive or even less...

After 2 months of driving my own LEAF, I don't have any more range anxiety than I would with an ICE. Both require proper planning to ensure that one makes it to a refueling point before running out of fuel. Maybe this requires a little more thought with an EV than with an ICE due to the lack of infrastructure. However, with the ICE, it always seemed that the day I had to go to the gas station was the day I had the least time to do it. With an EV, it's so nice to know that I won't have to make a side trip to the gas station on the way to work...

 

[lpickup]

Well, if you were to tell me that the reason demand is so low is because people don't want to spend $36,000 on a car that doesn't have a certain "status" attached to it, I'd probably be more inclined to believe it (and actually, I think this may be the case with many, even though nobody EVER says that).

 

[TRONZ]

I believe the average transaction price on new car sales for March 2012 was $30,700. It was a great month but clearly people have been taking their tax refunds and plowing them straight into gas vehicles that they are familiar with. Its not hard or unique to sell cars that have tailpipes.