July Plugin Sales : Leaf 395, Volt 1849, PIP 688, FFE 38

[GRA]

Leaf.
I'll say it. It's the price and it's the car. Cold, hard reality is difficult to accept but, there it is.

And I'll say it again.. It is still a supply issue. Maybe there are some lots in CA that have Leafs on them. But most of the country that is not the case. How many Prius's do you think Toyota would sell if people had to order them and wait several months.. especially if there wasn't even a demo that they could test-drive?

I'm with Train on this one (no surprise, given my past statements). Supply and the tedious ordering may put a few people off, but for the most part I think it's as Train stated; the early adopters have got their cars, the mainstream buyers don't see the value and will buy a Prius. I suspect that the Volt's sales for March and in the next month or two will also be a bubble, as the California buyers who would have bought a Volt regardless were holding off to get HOV-sticker cars. Once they get supplied the Volt's sales will likely drop back, as most people whose primary concern is the stickers will buy PiPs. Selling almost 900 of the latter in their first full month pretty much says it all.

It's not just that. It's quite an investment to buy a Leaf.

Usually you have to order online but the bigger thing is that in order to really be able to fully buy and enjoy a Leaf. You kind of NEED a charging station.

Only the truly dedicated will get one without one. And only the truly dedicated will go through the trouble of getting one installed in their home.

The Leaf is NOT an impulse buy.

Yes, that's the other big advantage of a PHEV, you don't NEED 240V, you can plug the thing in anywhere and get a full charge overnight. Indeed, as the batteries improve I think GM should keep the same capacity in the Volt rather than increasing it, lowering the price and the weight and improving mileage in CS mode.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Its not $38,000 its $31,000 and if in WA its another $3000+ not paid in sales tax and its not paying $100-150 a month more for gas over electricity... Ya a lot of people will lose itoverthe math but you are better than break even in5 years over a 50 MPG Prius...

It is a supply problem alongwith a support problem both ofwhichare being resolved....slowly albeit butstill making progress daily

 

[RegGuheert]

The Leaf is NOT an impulse buy.

It was for us since we bought it off the lot. If Nissan was smart they would simply put charger stuff in the big disclaimer they make you sign anyway.

 

[GRA]

Its not $38,000 its $31,000 and if in WA its another $3000+ not paid in sales tax and its not paying $100-150 a month more for gas over electricity... Ya a lot of people will lose itoverthe math but you are better than break even in5 years over a 50 MPG Prius...

It is a supply problem alongwith a support problem both ofwhichare being resolved....slowly albeit butstill making progress daily

Seems to me you're agreeing that the car is only affordable with lots of incentives, which the average potential customer may or may not qualify for. Here in California, I'd be paying 8.75% sales tax on the $38k (minus the $2500 Ca. rebate) and would have to lease since I can't get the $7,500 fed. credit any other way, plus I'd have to put in a 240V service and EVSE (in my rental, riiiggght) and so on. And then I'd be paying for a new battery in who knows how many years (I keep cars until they wear out), would have to borrow or rent an ICE for most trips, and so forth.

Or I could buy an ICE (or a Prius c) for half the cost, not have to worry about an EVSE, and be able to go anywhere I want. Sure my operating costs may be higher, but in the meantime I can invest the money I saved up front.

Given all the above, I can't imagine why most mainstream consumers would give BEVs a miss. :roll: Right now, the number of people who see a BEV as a reasonable option is limited, and until costs come down and range/infrastructure improves, that number will remain small. If it makes sense for you, terrific.

 

[RegGuheert]

Right now, the number of people who see a BEV as a reasonable option is limited, and until costs come down and range/infrastructure improves, that number will remain small.

I agree with you here. But I feel that limit of suitable buyers is so high, even with all the issues that you have explained, that the limited potential market is not what is hampering their sales today.

 

[cdub]

The Leaf is NOT an impulse buy.

It was for us since we bought it off the lot. If Nissan was smart they would simply put charger stuff in the big disclaimer they make you sign anyway.

If Nissan was smart they'd include the cost of the charger with the car and have nice people install them for you.

If Nissan was smart they'd get their arse over here and install Quick Chargers at all of their dealers.

 

[cwerdna]

Its not $38,000 its $31,000 and if in WA its another $3000+ not paid in sales tax and its not paying $100-150 a month more for gas over electricity... Ya a lot of people will lose itoverthe math but you are better than break even in5 years over a 50 MPG Prius...

It is a supply problem alongwith a support problem both ofwhichare being resolved....slowly albeit butstill making progress daily

Seems to me you're agreeing that the car is only affordable with lots of incentives, which the average potential customer may or may not qualify for. Here in California, I'd be paying 8.75% sales tax on the $38k (minus the $2500 Ca. rebate) and would have to lease since I can't get the $7,500 fed. credit any other way, plus I'd have to put in a 240V service and EVSE (in my rental, riiiggght) and so on. And then I'd be paying for a new battery in who knows how many years (I keep cars until they wear out), would have to borrow or rent an ICE for most trips, and so forth.

Or I could buy an ICE (or a Prius c) for half the cost, not have to worry about an EVSE, and be able to go anywhere I want. Sure my operating costs may be higher, but in the meantime I can invest the money I saved up front.

Given all the above, I can't imagine why most mainstream consumers would give BEVs a miss. :roll: Right now, the number of people who see a BEV as a reasonable option is limited, and until costs come down and range/infrastructure improves, that number will remain small. If it makes sense for you, terrific.

Agree... while home dwellers people won't need to "install" 240 volt service, unfortunately most won't realize that at 240V EVSE isn't actually required. There are more issues though.

For me, I don't have my Leaf yet (which I've said many times before) because I live (rent-free, long story) far from everything and I'm not working at the moment. If I lived in the Peninsula or say around Mountain View, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, I'd be closer to a potential future workplace.

I'd hate to limit my job search to place comfortably within the Leaf's range or to have to move (thus lose my rent-free housing) or end up with a weekend only EV. Most workplaces don't provide charging. If the Leaf's range were EPA rated at ~150 miles, then I'd be more than comfortable taking into account a buffer for battery degradation, high speeds, cold weather, how far I'm willing to commute, etc.

But, if I had to move, esp. back to an apartment, then charging might be difficult or impossible. Nissan's crappy lease transfer terms (http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=161834#p161834" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false don't help either, in the event I needed to transfer my lease.

And I'll say it again.. It is still a supply issue. Maybe there are some lots in CA that have Leafs on them. But most of the country that is not the case. How many Prius's do you think Toyota would sell if people had to order them and wait several months.. especially if there wasn't even a demo that they could test-drive?

That's the way the Prius was in the early days. I took a test drive of an 04 when the wait lists were months long and I had no interest in buying back then. Assuming http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius#Sales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; is accurate, they did reasonably well back then.

I had to wait a few months after putting down my deposit on my 06. The only test drive I had was of the above 04.

 

[Train]

Its not $38,000 its $31,000 and if in WA its another $3000+ not paid in sales tax and its not paying $100-150 a month more for gas over electricity... Ya a lot of people will lose itoverthe math but you are better than break even in5 years over a 50 MPG Prius...

It is a supply problem alongwith a support problem both ofwhichare being resolved....slowly albeit butstill making progress daily

That's great for Washington but not everywhere else.

You're assuming everyone will qualify for the full $7500 tax credit, they will not. Add $2000 for installation of a 220. Add the tax, add destination, you're right back up the MSRP. In five years, how much will the the battery degrade in the Leaf? 20 miles worth? 30 miles worth?

But even more important than that, the psychological jolt. A person looks at the sticker and sees $38,000..."Forget it" They're not going to want to hear that they could possibly get a $7500 credit next year.

The Leaf is available so the supply is there. QC's are not going to entice people to buy the car because if everyone's wildest dreams came true, there would still be dozens of cars waiting for just a handful of charge stations. So they would wait even longer.

As far as saving money, how does one possibly save money when you spend $5 for Starbucks and shop at the mall because that's where the QC is? There goes your gas savings for food, drink and products while waiting to charge.

Emotion is clouding the thinking of many who are EV enthusiasts. The drawbacks, at this point in time, because of the technology and its limits, are too many to the general public. That's why people aren't buying and choosing a hybrid that can go the extra distance if needed. It does both. Short and long distances, charges at home, can fuel up in less than five minutes on the road and another 400+ miles.

It's not even close.

 

[wcanl]

Well, bless all you Leafers for being so dedicated to electric driving. Me? I get to have one car and that's it. Even if there was a DC fast charge station in, say, Walnut Creek, and I used 41 miles range to get from here to sister's house in Concord, then 9 miles to the fast charger on the way home ...

I really wouldn't want to hang out in a store for 20 minutes to pick up 50 miles range with wife and mother in law in tow when i just want to get home on a Sunday night before work next day....

and that's assuming the fast charger is available.

But yeah, great 2nd commuter car if you limit your commute to about 30 miles one way.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

ok. lets just go straight cars. i have a 2010 Prius purchased on special priority program (2nd on West Coast to get one) for $2500 discount off MSRP delivered may 2009.

final price $28,584.

Leaf was bit different since it was leased to get full $7500 tax credit (they treat it as a down payment for the amount) got a bit of a discount on it as well. cost after discount $34,565 minus $7500 makes it 27,065

say what you want but the 2010 Prius and Leaf are nearly same size, features about the same. sure the Prius has a sunroof so i guess that is something.

now, the Leaf is more expensive now and getting the discount i got is not likely but that puts the Leaf after discount at under $31,000 which is what a Prius with similar features goes for sooooo, right back its the same initial cost...

BUT; after that, its not much of a contest

Prius; oil change about $70 every 10,000 miles. Leaf; 14,381 miles and not an oil change in sight not counting other misc filters and such for the Prius (easy DIY and got filters cheap online)

Prius; $120-$140 a month in gas to drive about 1300 miles a month.

Leaf; under $25 to drive about 1000 miles a month. now, my commute has changed from 12 miles RT 4 days a week to 45 miles RT 5 days a week. so the mileage will be same as Prius commute but the Leaf if pretty much used all the time, the Prius is not. so, guessing it will be around $30 a month for the Leaf

so, its $100 a month cheaper to drive the Leaf. or $1200 a year, or $6,000 in 5 years. now, we are not talking about a relatively expensive Hybrid. now, we are talking about TCO of a above average Compact like a Focus or Corolla. but neither of them get 50 mpg so actually they would be more money.

cut is anyway you want, but your options is to get a used car for $14-16,000 or not... shop around, you can find a better price but you will pay in other ways. higher maintenance, higher gas bills, etc.

now; it is worth mentioning again. the Leaf is the PERFECT 2nd car. although it will quickly become your first choice for all trips within the Leaf's range.

 

[smkettner]

Well, bless all you Leafers for being so dedicated to electric driving. Me? I get to have one car and that's it. Even if there was a DC fast charge station in, say, Walnut Creek, and I used 41 miles range to get from here to sister's house in Concord, then 9 miles to the fast charger on the way home ....

Your sister lives without electricity? Otherwise why would you need a QC?

 

[klapauzius]

Well, bless all you Leafers for being so dedicated to electric driving. Me? I get to have one car and that's it. Even if there was a DC fast charge station in, say, Walnut Creek, and I used 41 miles range to get from here to sister's house in Concord, then 9 miles to the fast charger on the way home ...

I really wouldn't want to hang out in a store for 20 minutes to pick up 50 miles range with wife and mother in law in tow when i just want to get home on a Sunday night before work next day....

and that's assuming the fast charger is available.

But yeah, great 2nd commuter car if you limit your commute to about 30 miles one way.

Yes, but for that it is perfect. We dont drive a lot, so only saved ~ $1000 in gas for 2011. Depending on your usage it can be more, add to that lower maintenance and you could easily have $1500 less cost per year (at current gas prices) over a regular gas car. If you dont need a new battery after 8 years, because your commute is well within even the reduced range, that is a significant amount. And you had a nicer ride all the time

 

[SanDust]

We can agree that if dealers had more inventory they'd sell more. I can't think anyone would dispute that. But this doesn't mean that low sales are a supply issue. It depends on why the dealers don't have inventory. Nissan can't force the dealers to order the car. I'm thinking that the dealers don't see the demand and therefore aren't ordering. Certainly from my interaction with the Nissan dealer I used I haven't gotten the impression that the Leaf is a priority at all.

I've always thought that the Volt would outsell the Leaf, but I also thought the Leaf would be doing better. It may be a combination of price and range. The loss of the CA rebates and the higher price has taken a toll. Last year we had a $5000 CARB rebate plus the car was $2000 less. Seven thousand dollars for a car that costs $30K or less is a big chunk. There is also no doubt that the limited range is a buzz kill. People ask me about the car and seem excited. Then they ask about the range. When I tell them they just stop and say "That won't work for me." You can try and explain that for many it will but they just can't seem to get their heads around a limited range.

Eventually people will figure it out but it may take longer than expected.

 

[Train]

so, its $100 a month cheaper to drive the Leaf. or $1200 a year, or $6,000 in 5 years. now, we are not talking about a relatively expensive Hybrid. now, we are talking about TCO of a above average Compact like a Focus or Corolla. but neither of them get 50 mpg so actually they would be more money.

Again, how much mileage is that battery going to give you? How much does that devalue the car in five years when (if someone purchased, not leased) the dealer states that because they have to put a new battery in it, he needs to give you $8000 less. Or $10,000 less. There goes any savings in fuel.

So a battery electric vehicle that has half the range is somehow more desirable in five years? What's the trade in value when BEV's are still niche vehicles?

So at MOST, a BEV is a wash and will not save any money and it still is far more inconvenient because of its lack of range and long charging times in public places.

To the general car buying public, it will not make any sense or save money in the long run to buy an EV over a hybrid or petrol powered car.

There's a price for inconvenience. There's also a dollar value for people's time and sitting at a charge station is wasting valuable time and money.

If the Leaf were $18,000, it would be the perfect commuter car, albeit still with one purpose-short range driving. At $38,000, even with incentives, it will not get past the novelty stage.

To those who are EV enthusiasts, objectivity can be a difficult thing. I guess it's going to take a few more months of 3 digit sales numbers to realize that Smyrna's going to have to find other plans for car production.

 

[cwerdna]

If the Leaf were $18,000, it would be the perfect commuter car, albeit still with one purpose-short range driving. At $38,000, even with incentives, it will not get past the novelty stage.

To those who are EV enthusiasts, objectivity can be a difficult thing. I guess it's going to take a few more months of 3 digit sales numbers to realize that Smyrna's going to have to find other plans for car production.

The '11 Leaf SV in CA when the CVRP was $5000 wasn't that far over $20K, except that you'd have to pay sales tax on the full price.

$38K with incentives is a serious exaggeration of the price. Unfortunately, '12 Leaf MSRPs have gone up and and the CVRP has become $2500, but it's still not $38K. (http://www.autoblog.com/2011/07/19/2012-nissan-leaf-higher-price-tag-standard-equipment/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://energycenter.org/index.php/incentive-programs/clean-vehicle-rebate-project/cvrp-eligible-vehicles" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false

I agree that it seem that new plant at Smryna will be producing way under capacity and Nissan will have to repurpose some/all of it unless they're able to really boost demand, open up new markets (esp. outside the US) or we have a huge oil price shock/shortage.

 

[Nekota]

Again, how much mileage is that battery going to give you? How much does that devalue the car in five years when (if someone purchased, not leased) the dealer states that because they have to put a new battery in it, he needs to give you $8000 less. Or $10,000 less. There goes any savings in fuel.

I sense a lot of opinions so here are my facts :
I paid $36K for a Lexus LS400 which is the same as the LEAF before rebates and going to the LEAF is saving $0.20 per mile. So at 9K miles I've saved $1800 or about $2000 per year.

So a battery electric vehicle that has half the range is somehow more desirable in five years? What's the trade in value when BEV's are still niche vehicles?

I still have the Lexus after 15 years and plan to keep the LEAF for a similar time. Half the range will work for me but why do you think the battery will degrade by 10% per year?

So at MOST, a BEV is a wash and will not save any money and it still is far more inconvenient because of its lack of range and long charging times in public places.

It's saving money for me, it's been very convenient to not have to go to the gas station, get smog checks, keep track of oil changes and have a warm car on cold mornings. Why should we waste petrol on short trips when BEV does it for less money.

To the general car buying public, it will not make any sense or save money in the long run to buy an EV over a hybrid or petrol powered car.

Works for me - I like long term investments that pay for themselves and simple solutions.

There's a price for inconvenience. There's also a dollar value for people's time and sitting at a charge station is wasting valuable time and money.

I've charged my LEAF every day for the past 11 months but not one minute have I spent waiting for it to charge. And speaking of inconvenience I miss going to the gas station, having gas smelly hands, keeping cash on hand to fill up, getting change for my fill up, finding the lower price gas station, and those less frequent oil changes and smog certificates. These days, going to a gas station is the epitome of wasting time and money.

If the Leaf were $18,000, it would be the perfect commuter car, albeit still with one purpose-short range driving. At $38,000, even with incentives, it will not get past the novelty stage.

So it's sour grapes for you?

To those who are EV enthusiasts, objectivity can be a difficult thing. I guess it's going to take a few more months of 3 digit sales numbers to realize that Smyrna's going to have to find other plans for car production.

Why do you assume technical folks have difficulty with objectivity?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I fear there is some validity to Train's naysaying. It's a leap of faith to get the average buyer to pay an extra $10k for a car on the promise of saving $1500 a year on fuel. When considering the opinions of people from CA on the matter you have to remember their price differential was a lot lower, because the 2011 price was lower and they got an extra $5k subsidy.

If you could get the post-subsidy price difference under $5k nationwide it would be a lot easier sale, just like it was a no-brainer for CA buyers. The argument that there are lots of people out there buying $40k+ cars anyway doesn't wash, because those people don't care about money or the environment, they are buying cars for image, and the Leaf doesn't provide the image they are looking for.

 

[mkjayakumar]

So much FUD here..

I don't understand the absolute insistence of an L2. There are very many who can get along perfectly well with an L1 and secondary ICE car.

 

[redLEAF]

Truth be told, we don't know what exactly the long term aspect of the life of the battery pack that also falls into play here --- I have another 'limited use' vehicle based on not wanting to expose it to salty roads here in the Midwest (a '99 Miata with about 57K miles on it). It's very cheap to insure and maintain it at this point and has probably peaked on the depreciation scale (as it's limited use, only my wife and I can drive it so costs $190/yr). We have an 'agreed value' policy in case it gets totaled as well; plan to keep it at least 2 more years when the youngest goes on his own auto policy after which I'll be looking to 'upgrade' it perhaps to whatever hybrid sports car that's available then --- anyway, my point is that our LEAF, which we bought outright 'cost' us about $18K after incentives and a $9K trade-in but before taxes and fees so after the battery warranty expires we'll see if it makes sense to simply put a new battery pack in it (depending on how it fares with our salty roads -- no exhaust system to worry about, etc. but we'll see how it does) or simply compare that to its 'residual' value with a reduced capacity battery post-warranty for a trade/sell. Even if it only has 'salvage' value when the battery warranty expires we think we still think we're doing as good or probably better than a comparable ICE that could need a new transmission or other major expense used during the same time frame (8 years/ 100K) --- remember, the electric motor won't 'wear out' like an ICE but they simply haven't been on the road long enough to see how many miles the car gets at say the 80% recommended charging versus total miles and time-in-service traveled. If the old Prius hybrids are any indication, the battery may well last up to 150K miles or more before it drops below 80 or 90% capacity; again in 'real world' tests not just lab tests.

These monthly sales numbers are interesting and I would have thought the LEAF numbers would be higher but lets see what their management has to say about it (if anything) before deciding its a negative trend -- as of yet, at least at a national level, Nissan is NOT offering any incentives on the LEAF versus their other cars so I don't think they see an issue unlike GM which reduced the supply of Volts in dealer inventory.


EDIT: Well there you go ... I would have said the same thing (of course wouldn't mind being a CEO as well)

http://green.autoblog.com/2012/04/04/carlos-ghosn-27-000-nissan-leafs-sold-worldwide-many-many-mor/

 

[lpickup]

I agree that it seem that new plant at Smryna will be producing way under capacity and Nissan will have to repurpose some/all of it unless they're able to really boost demand, open up new markets (esp. outside the US) or we have a huge oil price shock/shortage.

Well of course it will be producing under capacity. If you were to build a new plant, would you build it to CURRENT demand, or an anticipated FUTURE demand in the near future (less than 5 years out)? It wouldn't make much sense to me to build a plant that's already too small the day it opens. Build it large enough that you can grow into it over time.