Close out 2012 or new spec. 2013

[brg2290]

Hello all.

I have funds freed up for a Leaf purchase ( or sweetheart lease if terms are right ). I've been actively searching, and have seen 2012 SL's right at the $30,000 price point. I live in Eastern Washington (20's an 30's with occasional plunges into the teens and single digits in winter, summer's mostly 70's and 80's with a week or two up into the 90's). Because of my location, an efficient heater is important, and my assumption is that battery life wont be too negatively impacted by the generally mild summer temps. My city commute is probably less than 20 miles daily, but every other Saturday I do 70 miles total driving to an out of town relative's house and back.

From reading about the 2013 Japan Leaf release, there are some assumptions being made about the 2013 US model. An "S" model (base) is rumored to be in the mix, and also may be at about that $30,000 price point, with all the Japan Leaf improvements likely. Lower weight, slightly improved range, 6.6 charger, improved cabin heater, etc. (for full list, see http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=10687.

So, I'd like to hear pros and cons on the close out 2012 SL or SV vs. the 2013 based on what's been reported. I'd like to keep my price point at or below $30,000, but would like as much utility as possible. Lastly, I realize that the US MY 2013 Leaf is still all conjecture and speculation, which makes this exercise difficult. Still, thoughts and opinions may help me make a decision. (At this point in time I'm more inclined to wait, but there's that old adage...A bird in the hand...)

Gary

 

[KJD]

That is a tough question to answer. In view of all the new goodies on the 2013 I would be inclined to wait also.

On the other hand it looks like the 2012's on the lot are getting some pretty steep discounts that you need to look at.
http://www.fontananissan.com/inventory/2012_2012-Nissan-Leaf-Fontana.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I bought my car from Fontana last year and had it shipped to Utah. The shipping cost was less than I expected.

 

[brg2290]

Thanks for this. The Fontana offer is a little misleading, as the price advertised is for a lease with a $2995 drive off. Here's the fine print:

"Only $185 plus tax per month - 2012 Nissan Leaf SL - Only $26044 plus fees - Stop by today and test drive the 100% Electric Nissan Leaf - No Gas, No Tailpipe, No Emissions, Just lots of fun .. MSRP $38819 - $12775 TOTAL SAVINGS BASED ON $3000 DEALER DISCOUNT AND $9775 NMAC LEASE CASH - Lease offer only - Lease payment based on $2995 drive off - 39 months - 12000 miles per year - on approved credit - STOP BY TODAY!"

But yes, I've looked at the price differential locally vs. Spokane, and I'd be willing to transport a car for the savings.

 

[edatoakrun]

Hello all.
... My city commute is probably less than 20 miles daily, but every other Saturday I do 70 miles total driving to an out of town relative's house and back...

(At this point in time I'm more inclined to wait, but there's that old adage...A bird in the hand...)
Gary

And I'd ask you, how much you really need the proverbial "two birds" that might be available when the USA prices and specs are announced?

I think that waiting for the 2013's makes the most sense for those whom the relatively slight increases in range promised by the cumulative improvements, are likely to outweigh what will likely be a considerably higher final sales/lease price.

Given your short commute, and the occasional 70 mile trip you state (assuming your relative will let you plug in, if required) it doesn't sound like ~5 more miles of high-speed range in the Summer (and a few miles more in the Winter, from the heat pump) that the 2013 might provide, will be a critical benefit to you.

If you don't want to have to plan to keep a "back-up" ICEV, and/or want to make frequent longer trips without buying gas, the slightly longer range and/or 6.6 kWh option (for routes without DC chargers) the 2013 might provide a huge benefit.

The latter is pretty much my reality in the decision I will face in terms of my decision on whether or not to upgrade from my 2011, to a 2013.

But I'm also already thinking of the 2014 Infiniti, (hopefully) with a slightly longer range than the 2013 LEAF...

How do you know the next bush won't have three birds in it?

 

[MrIanB]

You can always charge at 110 when you get to the destination on that 70 mile drive. I am sure you are there couple of hours and that should help guarantee you get back home with reasonable charge left. If this is the case, buy the 2012 and you will save a lot of money compare to the 2013 which may not have that high of discount.

Just a thought.

Do it,

Ian B

 

[bradbissell]

I've gone back and forth a couple of times with either leasing a 12 or waiting for the 13. I have a 54 mile commute with the potential for the occasional 70 mile trip. In the end I have decided that the more efficient heater (a must in New England winters) and faster 6.6kWh charger outweigh the potential lower cost lease at the moment. We really don't know what the price will be and hopefully Nissan has learned that a high price will not sell the car. The faster charger will allow me to "quick" charge (~24 miles in 1hr) if needed. In the North East we have 0 DCFCs and none on the horizon.

 

[LEAFfan]

I'm going to wait and order in Jan. and lease (24 mos.) in Feb. a 2013 because of the significant changes/improvements which will be worth the extra cost. Then for 2015, they will definitely have a much better pack with a different chemistry, then may lease a 2015.

 

[DaveHanson]

Hi Gary,

Brand new Seattle-based leaf lessee here, who happens to be born and raised in Spokane (still have property and family there). A few thoughts:

-In terms of value for dollar, the lease deals currently smoke the purchase deals IMO, just by the numbers.

We just got our Red 2012 SL from Campbell Nelson Nissan in Seattle for 0 down, $199.65/mo, 24 months, with first month rolled into the lease. That's $4591.95 to use the car for two years, with a residual value / option to purchase price at $21,512.40 in November 2014 (plus a possible $300 Purchase Option Fee that we are told may likely be waived).

So if we do choose to keep it, right there, we're getting a high-end 2012 for less than $26K of present value. As I'm sure you know, you won't find a new 2012 SL for $26K, even if you qualify for the full $7,500 federal tax credit. But IMO the value of *not* exercising that option is huge. Who knows what options will exist by end of 2014? And the odds are good that if the used market for current LEAFs collapses given likely 2013-15 advances, I'm betting Nissan will forgive a chunk of that residual to get owners to keep their vehicles.

These lease deals won't be available on the 2013s anytime soon, if ever.

-Spokane is a still a marginal region for EVs.

You've already mentioned the more extreme climate compared to the coast. Will you keep the car in a (heated?) garage? That will help, but the need for heat will be an issue with range both for 2102 and 2013 models. There are still no quickcharge stations anywhere near Spokane, and AFAIK no ETA on them either. If there were one en route to the city you visit (which city?), that would help make the car more versatile. None of this means you shouldn't get an EV if you're motivated...but it does mean that if you want one soon, I think the option to lease one cheap becomes all the more valuable.

-I don't think you need to act right away.

Dealers tell me there is still significant stock on the 2102 SLs. There should be a window in the next couple months where 2012 deals will be smoking, but 2013 lease deals will become clearer. I would be tempted to inform myself with a mind to picking either a 2012 or 2013 to lease in the next 90-180 days, depending in part on how inventory looks.

FWIW...

 

[DaveHanson]

I'm going to wait and order in Jan. and lease (24 mos.) in Feb. a 2013 because of the significant changes/improvements which will be worth the extra cost. Then for 2015, they will definitely have a much better pack with a different chemistry, then may lease a 2015.

That's a good strategy IMO. I'd only add that by Feb, 2012s, if they remain, might be so attractive pricewise compared to the 2013s that forgoing the new features for just two years of leasing might be worth it. But LEAFfan, like you, can make those choices as circumstances become clearer then.

 

[LEAFfan]

That's a smoking deal Dave! All the SLs around here are at least $249 + tax for 24 mos. The SVs are at least $199 +tax. They leased you an SL for the cost of an SV. If I were you, I definitely wouldn't buy the car later because the 2015 MY will have a MUCH improved pack (different chemistry). I was told that every two years, Nissan will make major improvements/changes. Despite what some people have posted about no battery pack improvement for 2013, there WILL be an improved pack (no chemistry change) and along with all the other improvements is why I've turned down the great 2012 deals.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I would not expect to have the 2013 S model with the needed heat pump. So, for me, depending on how far autonomously you need to drive in cold weather, that would be the determining factor.

So, both cars you are considering are likely 6kW resistance heaters, therefore I would probably be inclined to get the 2012 at the smoking lease deals that are out there, than pay a "premium" for a 2013 with the same heater.

All the other model 2013s with heat pump are well above your price point.

It's the same battery on all the cars (if there was a difference, they'd be singing that all they way from Japan) and I don't believe that 80kg of weight reduction and some motor effienciencies will be much difference in range for average consumer. Plus, the batteries will degrade at the same rate for any model or year.

The things that are important to me for a future EV in the LEAF class is temperature control of the battery and REAL 100 mile range. The other stuff is fluff, EXCEPT that heat pump.

How far do you plan to drive?

20 miles weekday, get the 2012
70 miles weekend, AND CAN PLUG IN, get the 2012

Edit: if you're doing 70 miles in the cold, and can't plug in at your destination 35 miles away, then I do NOT recommend any LEAF for this trip.

Nissan can't give these things away forever, and now is the best deals and selection. It will get a bit sparse in Jan / Feb.

 

[eHelmholtz]

I'm going to wait and order in Jan. and lease (24 mos.) in Feb. a 2013 because of the significant changes/improvements which will be worth the extra cost. Then for 2015, they will definitely have a much better pack with a different chemistry, then may lease a 2015.

LEAFfan,
Do you no longer drive a LEAF?

 

[Stoaty]

Despite what some people have posted about no battery pack improvement for 2013, there WILL be an improved pack (no chemistry change) and along with all the other improvements is why I've turned down the great 2012 deals.

You know this how? Improved in what way?

 

[TonyWilliams]

Despite what some people have posted about no battery pack improvement for 2013, there WILL be an improved pack (no chemistry change) and along with all the other improvements is why I've turned down the great 2012 deals.

You know this how? Improved in what way?

Nissan Japan said nothing about ANY battery changes, and went to great detail about all "other" changes. Nissan USA engineers have privately told us that there won't be a new battery.

Any improvement is cost savings from building the batteries in a US government financed factory.

 

[planet4ever]

You guys dreaming of a faster charger need to remember that we've been told for months that will be an option on the 2013. My guess is that it won't be available at all on the low end S model. Extra range? That's just smoke and mirrors; mostly due to the improved heating. And if Tony is right that the S model will still have the old heater, ...

I'd say go for the lease now. (But, of course, WITHOUT that ripoff maintenance add on.)

Ray

 

[davewill]

You guys dreaming of a faster charger need to remember that we've been told for months that will be an option on the 2013. My guess is that it won't be available at all on the low end S model. Extra range? That's just smoke and mirrors; mostly due to the improved heating. And if Tony is right that the S model will still have the old heater, ...

I'd say go for the lease now. (But, of course, WITHOUT that ripoff maintenance add on.)

Ray

Plus the faster charger won't have much added utility for overnight charging. The number of times when it would have be helpful for me are probably well under 10 over the last 18 months...and since the charge rate has to slow down as you approach the end of the charge, it might not have helped as much as I'd've liked even then.

 

[brg2290]

Wow, this is what happens when I post before work and then can't join the conversation throughout the day. Thanks to all who posted, I'll try and play catch up here.

I think that waiting for the 2013's makes the most sense for those whom the relatively slight increases in range promised by the cumulative improvements, are likely to outweigh what will likely be a considerably higher final sales/lease price.

Given your short commute, and the occasional 70 mile trip you state (assuming your relative will let you plug in, if required) it doesn't sound like ~5 more miles of high-speed range in the Summer (and a few miles more in the Winter, from the heat pump) that the 2013 might provide, will be a critical benefit to you.

I'd love to get one of the zero down, 169 or 199 / month leases, but that's not what they are offering here locally (apparently NMAC has different lease programs for different regions?). I will be able to opportunity charge at my relative's house.

If you don't want to have to plan to keep a "back-up" ICEV, and/or want to make frequent longer trips without buying gas, the slightly longer range and/or 6.6 kWh option (for routes without DC chargers) the 2013 might provide a huge benefit.

My wife has a 2002 Jetta that she intends to keep for a few more years, and I have a '96 Nissan Pickup, so we have options. The 6.6 kWh would add utility, probably making that 70 mile round trip more doable in the winter with some heat / defrost. BTW, this trip that I make every two weeks is about 50% in town, 50% highway.

But I'm also already thinking of the 2014 Infiniti, (hopefully) with a slightly longer range than the 2013 LEAF...

How do you know the next bush won't have three birds in it?

I haven't thought too much about the Infiniti, mostly because I believe it will be more than I want to pay for a vehicle, but your'e right, hopefully there will be several new choices in the EV arena over the next couple of years.

Hi Gary,

Brand new Seattle-based leaf lessee here, who happens to be born and raised in Spokane (still have property and family there). A few thoughts:

-In terms of value for dollar, the lease deals currently smoke the purchase deals IMO, just by the numbers

Hi DaveHanson. I pm'd you for some more details on the lease - but this is exactly the kind of deal I have been looking for! I could justify the lease payment largely on fuel savings. Dave, you make some other really great points. Your buyout is good, but having the option to just walk is also good. And your bet on a lower residual / buyout may be correct as well

You've already mentioned the more extreme climate compared to the coast. Will you keep the car in a (heated?) garage? That will help, but the need for heat will be an issue with range both for 2102 and 2013 models. There are still no quickcharge stations anywhere near Spokane, and AFAIK no ETA on them either. If there were one en route to the city you visit (which city?)

The "city" I travel to is Elk, WA. Yes, the car will be parked in a heated garage during the winter. The EV infrastructure is pretty poor here - even the Nissan dealers only have level 2, no quick charge anywhere.

Dealers tell me there is still significant stock on the 2102 SLs. There should be a window in the next couple months where 2012 deals will be smoking, but 2013 lease deals will become clearer. I would be tempted to inform myself with a mind to picking either a 2012 or 2013 to lease in the next 90-180 days, depending in part on how inventory looks.

FWIW...

Actually worth quite a bit. This would seem like a prudent plan of action. As Leaffan wrote, leasing a 2013 is also an interesting proposition, but for me only if the terms are great like DaveHanson's. I'm guessing they won't be.

... there WILL be an improved pack (no chemistry change) and along with all the other improvements is why I've turned down the great 2012 deals.

Yes, please do tell!

I would not expect to have the 2013 S model with the needed heat pump. So, for me, depending on how far autonomously you need to drive in cold weather, that would be the determining factor.

So, both cars you are considering are likely 6kW resistance heaters, therefore I would probably be inclined to get the 2012 at the smoking lease deals that are out there, than pay a "premium" for a 2013 with the same heater.

All the other model 2013s with heat pump are well above your price point.

Damn, really. Is this what is meant by decontented? Seems to me this should be standard across the board. Then again, will a heat pump really work for cabin heat / defrost when temps. are 20 degrees F or below?

The things that are important to me for a future EV in the LEAF class is temperature control of the battery and REAL 100 mile range. The other stuff is fluff, EXCEPT that heat pump.[

How far do you plan to drive? 20 miles weekday, get the 2012. 70 miles weekend, AND CAN PLUG IN, get the 2012

Edit: if you're doing 70 miles in the cold, and can't plug in at your destination 35 miles away, then I do NOT recommend any LEAF for this trip.

Nissan can't give these things away forever, and now is the best deals and selection. It will get a bit sparse in Jan / Feb.

Tony, I assume from what you wrote that you think the heat pump is a desirable feature (along with batt. temp. control and greater range). I know nothing about how effective / efficient this device supposedly will be - please elaborate. And as far as temp. management, I'm finding it hard to push the financial envelope to purchase the existing options, i.e. Volt, Focus EV, Tesla. Even the leases for the first two are currently higher than I'm comfortable spending. I know you own a RAV EV, so from what you have written, I'm guessing you believe the battery thermal management is worth the premium. (Yes, I've been following the AZ batt. capacity threads). You mention Nissan's current giveaway pricing, but the lease quotes I got here in Spokane are nowhere near as attractive as DaveHanson's deal at Nelson Campbell. Is there any rhyme or reason to what lease pricing is offered where?

I'd say go for the lease now. (But, of course, WITHOUT that ripoff maintenance add on.)

Ray

Hi Ray. I'll look into this, unless you care to elaborate. I'm going to assume that come paper signing time someone from the dealership strongly suggests that X maintenance plan is recommended, and lessee should decline. But what about in the event of a purchase? I've read that someone (Stevens Creek Nissan) offered / offers a reasonably priced extended warranty. Anyone have any experience with this?

Plus the faster charger won't have much added utility for overnight charging. The number of times when it would have be helpful for me are probably well under 10 over the last 18 months...and since the charge rate has to slow down as you approach the end of the charge, it might not have helped as much as I'd've liked even then.

Yup, at least where I live, the fast charger network is currently non-existent. But, a 6.6 kWh charger would be a nice improvement over 3.3

 

[surfingslovak]

But what about in the event of a purchase? I've read that someone (Stevens Creek Nissan) offered / offers a reasonably priced extended warranty. Anyone have any experience with this?

Please, whatever you do, don't purchase, lease instead if you can help it. I'm not entirely familiar with your situation, but you have obviously done a lot of homework, and listened to some great advice already. That said, EVs are evolving fairly quickly, and I believe that you would enjoy the car a lot more if you didn't own it outright. The 2015 or 2016 model year could be quite interesting.

 

[planet4ever]

Hi Ray. I'll look into this, unless you care to elaborate. I'm going to assume that come paper signing time someone from the dealership strongly suggests that X maintenance plan is recommended, and lessee should decline. But what about in the event of a purchase? I've read that someone (Stevens Creek Nissan) offered / offers a reasonably priced extended warranty. Anyone have any experience with this?

Actually, two threads got crossed in my brain. Someone else was talking about a lease with an included maintenance plan, but the advice stands. On the extended warranty, I would never throw my money away on one.

• It will not cover battery capacity loss over time.
• It won't cover much of anything until the standard warranty ends. That's 96/100K on the battery, 60/60K on the power train and other EV components, 36/36K on most everything else.
• Those extended warranties are filled with fine print that often lets them get out of anything really expensive.

Ray

 

[cwerdna]

Any improvement is cost savings from building the batteries in a US government financed factory.

That and also not having to deal w/the exchange rate that has been killing Japanese manufacturers.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1+us+dollar+in+yen+from+january+1%2C+2001+to+today" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1+us+dollar+in+yen+from+january+1%2C+2008+to+today" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

From http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-12/yen-strength-seen-costing-toyota-more-than-record-earthquake-impact-cars" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;:

Every one-yen advance against the dollar cuts Toyota’s operating income by 34 billion yen, while a gain versus the euro reduces operating income by 6 billion yen, according to the company’s full-year forecast in August. Toyota is basing this year’s forecast on 80 yen to the dollar and 116 yen to the euro.

It doesn't list impact to Nissan, but 34 billion yen = ~412 million USD.

Nissan can likely source some/many components and raw materials from US suppliers instead of from Japanese ones.