2 Years of Leaf : EV Activitists' Hopes and Reality

[DaveinOlyWA]

he was correct on the demand, wrong on the price. I know 3 different families struggling with that EXACT question right now. I tell them, lease! but they are hesitant having never leased before and they waited too long and I cant budge them on a LEAF although there is a LOT of interest from 2 of them...

 

[EVDrive]

I personally think that Nissan effectively addressed the 3.3 Kw charging with the quick charge port. this will be hard to understand except for the fact that with QC's 25 miles apart. there is no reason to spend more than 10-12 minutes charging. This works. Trust me, I did it and never came close to running out of charge

I love quick charging and I do it a few times a month. Quick charging was a brilliant idea, it just hasn't materialized. For most of the country it is not an option even after 2 years. And for the Bay Area which has thousands of Leafs, we have just a few Blinks and they are completely unreliable. Nissan promised to deploy 100's of QCers in the Bay Area and that would be a game changer. When they do they need to have multiple stations per location in case one is broken. Can you imagine if each gas station only had one pump. Same principal applies for EV charging. The situation now is terrible if you plan to use a QCer and it is dead when you arrive which is common with Blinks. Hopefully so new public charger installation companies will come on the market. Still waiting for Nissans 10k fast charger which is MIA. Having a fast onboard charger makes 100 sense especially as an add on option which will let the market decide.

 

[GRA]

Bob Lutz nails it:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/boblutz/2012/12/20/whats-gone-wrong-with-the-electric-vehicle-market-nothing/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Huh ? He was one of the leading cheerleaders for Plugins with highly exaggerated sales predictions. Apparently he thinks nobody can search the internet for his earlier statements.

http://insideevs.com/bob-lutz-electric-vehicle-market-is-just-fine-as-slow-as-it-is/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“My guess is the initial demand for the vehicle (Volt) will be so high that we will decide to expand capacity as fast as we can and as much as we can. The studies for this are starting, but we have to actually wait until the vehicle is on sale to see what the true world-wide demand is. But right now our production is being laid out for fifty to sixty thousand a year once we’re in full swing which will be the calendar year 2012.

I believe that’s at least fifty percent too low. I believe the true word-wide demand is more like one hundred to one hundred twenty thousand and that may not be enough.”

Oh, sure, when Lutz was acting in his official role at GM (head of worldwide sales or somesuch title), of course, he's going to exaggerate. Which is why I take most automaker's _public_ sales predictions with a grain of salt.

Now, though, he doesn't have to pimp for a particular car company (although he's still consulting), so he can make an objective evaluation. I think his current estimate of 10% BEV PHEV/HEV by 2020 is reasonable, although I expect most of it will be strong hybrids given our gas prices vis a vis the rest of the world; maybe 1% or at most 2% might be PHEV/BEV, assuming no major oil disruptions. Of course, we'll also likely see a lot more vehicles running on CNG in the U.S., especially trucks.

 

[tbleakne]

I personally think that Nissan effectively addressed the 3.3 Kw charging with the quick charge port. this will be hard to understand except for the fact that with QC's 25 miles apart. there is no reason to spend more than 10-12 minutes charging. This works. Trust me, I did it and never came close to running out of charge

I love quick charging and I do it a few times a month. Quick charging was a brilliant idea, it just hasn't materialized. For most of the country it is not an option even after 2 years. And for the Bay Area which has thousands of Leafs, we have just a few Blinks and they are completely unreliable. Nissan promised to deploy 100's of QCers in the Bay Area and that would be a game changer. When they do they need to have multiple stations per location in case one is broken. Can you imagine if each gas station only had one pump. Same principal applies for EV charging. The situation now is terrible if you plan to use a QCer and it is dead when you arrive which is common with Blinks. Hopefully so new public charger installation companies will come on the market. Still waiting for Nissans 10k fast charger which is MIA. Having a fast onboard charger makes 100 sense especially as an add on option which will let the market decide.

+1
In SoCal, with at least 2K LEAFs, only several working QCs. The installation cost is really high, the demand charges are high, and many LEAFers say they are unwilling to pay more than a few $ for a major charge that would enable true cross-town trips. EVOASIS plans to charge 15$ for 30 minutes of 22 net kW QC at San Juan Capistrano, and he still is taking a big risk. Well-located high-power L2 at places where you already are spending time, including overnight, should be an important part of the mix.

 

[cdh]

For the Leaf - so far, so good.
For the EV charging network - not good, not good at all.
Without a reliable, accessible network of reservable QC stations that drivers can count on, the EV is kept within very limited bounds.

But the non-existent charging network could have been foreseen.
After all - who benefits? Who wins, who loses?

With just a few thousand EV's on the road, how can a for-profit business build out a network of QC stations?
More bitter: Ecotality's lawsuit to block the ENRON settlement provision to fund thousands of charging stations in CA.

But the real issue is the trauma to our economy that will be created by the conversion from ICE to EV.
Not only the gas stations, nor the refineries.
Nor even the mechanics, the autoparts stores, the muffler and quick-lube shops.
How about the dealerships, whose only income comes from the Service Department?
The car makers get it. The dealerships (at least at Nissan) are getting it.
No one really wants the EV to work.

It is entirely possible that the ICE-cars&trucks (production, fuel, maintenance) represent nearly 10% of the US economy.

In many cases, as technology evolves (computers, music, television), nothing can stop it, and no one really tries to do so.
But in the case of the ICE, here is a truly dinosaur technology that is so deeply embedded in our economy and politics that change will come as slowly as possible.

Based on this analysis, the only question is this: What was Nissan thinking?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I am still upset over all the livery stations employees losing their jobs

 

[WetEV]

I think his current estimate of 10% BEV PHEV/HEV by 2020 is reasonable, although I expect most of it will be strong hybrids given our gas prices vis a vis the rest of the world; maybe 1% or at most 2% might be PHEV/BEV, assuming no major oil disruptions. Of course, we'll also likely see a lot more vehicles running on CNG in the U.S., especially trucks.

Trucks, especially larger ones, usually used liquified natural gas, not compressed natural gas.

"While CNG is primarily used in cars, buses and smaller trucks, the LNG that is getting rolled out at Clean Energy’s fueling stations is targeting long-haul, heavy-duty trucks, which will have the advantage of longer driving ranges while not impacting tractor weight and incremental costs, says the company’s release. In 2013, four major manufacturers will introduce a 12-liter LNG engine, which is the optimum size for heavy-duty 18-wheeler trucks."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2012/12/15/all-roads-lead-to-natural-gas-fueled-cars-and-trucks/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GRA]

I think his current estimate of 10% BEV PHEV/HEV by 2020 is reasonable, although I expect most of it will be strong hybrids given our gas prices vis a vis the rest of the world; maybe 1% or at most 2% might be PHEV/BEV, assuming no major oil disruptions. Of course, we'll also likely see a lot more vehicles running on CNG in the U.S., especially trucks.

Trucks, especially larger ones, usually used liquified natural gas, not compressed natural gas.

"While CNG is primarily used in cars, buses and smaller trucks, the LNG that is getting rolled out at Clean Energy’s fueling stations is targeting long-haul, heavy-duty trucks, which will have the advantage of longer driving ranges while not impacting tractor weight and incremental costs, says the company’s release. In 2013, four major manufacturers will introduce a 12-liter LNG engine, which is the optimum size for heavy-duty 18-wheeler trucks."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2012/12/15/all-roads-lead-to-natural-gas-fueled-cars-and-trucks/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You are correct, although I was primarily thinking of pickup/vans/delivery trucks rather than semis. Just think, the Ford F-150 has been the best selling LDV in the U.S. every year for the last 30 or so; if a significant number of those and their GM/Ram competition were to go CNG, we'd be getting somewhere on the energy security front - a small but important gain.

 

[tps]

But the real issue is the trauma to our economy that will be created by the conversion from ICE to EV.
Not only the gas stations, nor the refineries.
Nor even the mechanics, the autoparts stores, the muffler and quick-lube shops.
How about the dealerships, whose only income comes from the Service Department?
The car makers get it. The dealerships (at least at Nissan) are getting it.
No one really wants the EV to work.

Once consumers catch on, though. As a consumer, I love the fact that I don't have to go the gas station any more. I love the fact that my LEAF is hardly ever in the shop. We as the consumers are the people who stand to gain.

The EV has the potential to create jobs, too. Someone will have to install and maintain the charging network, even if the EV puts gas stations out of business.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

But the real issue is the trauma to our economy that will be created by the conversion from ICE to EV.
Not only the gas stations, nor the refineries.
Nor even the mechanics, the autoparts stores, the muffler and quick-lube shops.
How about the dealerships, whose only income comes from the Service Department?
The car makers get it. The dealerships (at least at Nissan) are getting it.
No one really wants the EV to work.

Once consumers catch on, though. As a consumer, I love the fact that I don't have to go the gas station any more. I love the fact that my LEAF is hardly ever in the shop. We as the consumers are the people who stand to gain.

The EV has the potential to create jobs, too. Someone will have to install and maintain the charging network, even if the EV puts gas stations out of business.

ya, my "livery station" comment went completely unnoticed i think. facts is, jobs go away all the time. that is how it is so get over it. i cant believe that anyone thinks we need to hold onto the current automotive industry to insure the "success" of our economy which btw, if you have not noticed is pretty much failing miserably.

we dont see that failure because we borrow our way out of it. but that debt is undermining our country's future financial foundation and that alliteration is not accidental because its a great representation of our grade in addressing the problem.

EVs allow us to more effectively utilize American resources. We have land, space, etc. but most of it is not benefiting us. In fact, most of it is costing us. We need to put that advantage to work for us. Electricity needs to take on a much much larger role in our energy package and that extra capacity must come from clean renewable sources. ROI formulas no longer work when we are so far in debt. We are lucky that anyone will even loan us any money and have to think that that time is getting short.

IOW; yes, we are big enough to drag down the entire world economy

 

[WetEV]

All Norway shows is that even if you provide virtually every possible perk and huge government incentives in the country with the largest share of hydropower in the world, you still can't sell many BEVs.

This comment hasn't aged well.

 

[GRA]

Gee, what's changed in 8.5 years of an immature technology's development? To update the original, it would now read "All Norway shows is that if you double, triple or quadruple the range of the cars, and offer them in a much wider selection at slightly lower prices while also undertaking a major buildout of charging infrastructure, you still have to provide virtually every possible perk and huge government incentives in the country with the largest share of hydropower in the world to sell many BEVs."

Now let's remove the subsidies and perks and see what happens to sales.

 

[WetEV]

Gee, what's changed in 8.5 years of an immature technology's development? To update the original, it would now read "All Norway shows is that if you double, triple or quadruple the range of the cars, and offer them in a much wider selection at slightly lower prices while also undertaking a major buildout of charging infrastructure, you still have to provide virtually every possible perk and huge government incentives in the country with the largest share of hydropower in the world to sell many BEVs."

Now let's remove the subsidies and perks and see what happens to sales.

Let's keep increasing the range and reducing the prices first.

 

[GRA]

Gee, what's changed in 8.5 years of an immature technology's development? To update the original, it would now read "All Norway shows is that if you double, triple or quadruple the range of the cars, and offer them in a much wider selections at slightly lower prices while also undertaking a major buildout of charging infrastructure, you still have to provide virtually every possible perk and huge government incentives in the country with the largest share of hydropower in the world to sell many BEVs."

Now let's remove the subsidies and perks and see what happens to sales.

Let's keep increasing the range and reducing the prices first.

So, I guess you're saying BEVs still can't meet the average customer's requirements, so they still need to be bribed. Glad you agree with me.. I don't expect they will until somewhere in the 2025-2030 timeframe.

 

[WetEV]

So, I guess you're saying BEVs still can't meet the average customer's requirements, so they still need to be bribed. Glad you agree with me.. I don't expect they will until somewhere in the 2025-2030 timeframe.

Sad.

 

[GRA]

So, I guess you're saying BEVs still can't meet the average customer's requirements, so they still need to be bribed. Glad you agree with me.. I don't expect they will until somewhere in the 2025-2030 timeframe.

Sad.

If it makes you feel any better there's this forecast, via ABG:

EVs will be the majority of sales by 2033, study says, faster than expected

Regulatory environment is a 'big contributor'

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/06/26/electric-vehicle-global-dominance-2033/

Global electric vehicle supremacy will arrive by 2033 — five years earlier than previously expected — as tougher regulations and rising interest drive demand for zero-emission transportation, according to a new study.

Consultant Ernst & Young LLP now sees EV sales outpacing fossil fuel-burners in 12 years in Europe, China and the U.S. — the world’s largest auto markets. And by 2045, non-EV sales are seen plummeting to less than 1% of the global car market, EY forecast using an AI-powered prediction tool.

Strict government mandates to combat climate change are driving demand in Europe and China, where automakers and consumers face rising financial penalties for selling and buying traditional gasoline and diesel-fueled cars. EY sees Europe leading the charge to electric, with zero-emission models outselling all other propulsion systems by 2028. That tipping point will arrive in China in 2033 and in the U.S. in 2036, EY predicts.

The U.S. lags the world’s other leading markets because fuel-economy regulations were eased during President Donald Trump’s administration. Since taking office in January, President Joe Biden has rejoined the Paris Climate Accord and proposed spending $174 billion to accelerate the shift to EVs, including installing a half-million charging stations across the country. . . .

There also is a growing consumer appetite for EVs, from Tesla Inc.’s hot-selling Model 3 to new electric models coming from legacy automakers, such as General Motors' battery-powered Hummer truck and Ford’s F-150 Lightning pickup. . . .

‘More appealing’

“Many more models that are much more appealing are coming out,” Miller said. “You factor that with the incentives, and those are the raw ingredients that are driving this more optimistic view.”

The EY study also sees the millennial generation, now in their late 20s and 30s, as helping to propel EV adoption. Those consumers, driven by a coronavirus-influenced rejection of ride-sharing and public transportation, are embracing car ownership. And 30% of them want to drive an EV, Miller said. . . .

Additionally, the combination of government purchase incentives for EVs and proposed bans on internal combustion engines in cities and states are accelerating the adoption of battery-powered vehicles. . . .

Of course, such forecasts are a dime a dozen and it's easy to find one that agrees with someone's personal opinions, given the wide spread in predicted dates in these forecasts. But I do seem to recall I've mentioned, just a few times, _my_ opinion that PEV sales are still primarily driven by government subsidies and mandates rather than natural customer demand - perhaps you remember this?

 

[WetEV]

Of course, such forecasts are a dime a dozen and it's easy to find one that agrees with someone's personal opinions, given the wide spread in predicted dates in these forecasts. But I do seem to recall I've mentioned, just a few times, _my_ opinion that PEV sales are still primarily driven by government subsidies and mandates rather than natural customer demand - perhaps you remember this?

Reality is different, of course. At least more complex. At least in the USA, performance electric cars are the majority of the market.

People don't buy Taycans because of any subsidy. Same with Tesla, perhaps even more so, as there is no Federal subsidy.

Is there any mandate for a high performance sports car? Really?

The highest selling non-Tesla is the Chevy Bolt, no Federal subsidy.

For the majority of the BEV market, subsidies and mandates are no longer large factors.

Sure, some states have subsidies. Washington has a sales tax reduction. But again, not a large factor.

Washington registration taxes on EVs are higher.

The world has changed. Will you?

 

[GRA]

Of course, such forecasts are a dime a dozen and it's easy to find one that agrees with someone's personal opinions, given the wide spread in predicted dates in these forecasts. But I do seem to recall I've mentioned, just a few times, _my_ opinion that PEV sales are still primarily driven by government subsidies and mandates rather than natural customer demand - perhaps you remember this?

Reality is different, of course. At least more complex. At least in the USA, performance electric cars are the majority of the market.

People don't buy Taycans because of any subsidy. Same with Tesla, perhaps even more so, as there is no Federal subsidy.

Is there any mandate for a high performance sports car? Really?

The highest selling non-Tesla is the Chevy Bolt, no Federal subsidy.

For the majority of the BEV market, subsidies and mandates are no longer large factors.

Sure, some states have subsidies. Washington has a sales tax reduction. But again, not a large factor.

Washington registration taxes on EVs are higher.

The world has changed. Will you?

The world has changed, but nowhere near enough. 10 years ago, the major reasons people weren't buying BEVs were price, range and infrastructure. All have improved, yet mass market buyers still aren't buying them for the same three reasons. Last year, when lower-income people dropped out of the new car market, the median sales price of cars in the U.S. rose by about $2k to something over $41k, which is well beyond mass market consumers' price range. And BEVs? Their median sales price was $52k. Do you think people who can't afford a $41k car will be able to afford one costing$11k more, without subsidies?

You mention the Bolt. Does the fact that GM is incentivizing sales by several thousands, plus state government incentives in California and other high-PEV sales states, and dropping the MSRP even more for the 2022 model affect sales? Of course it does. The Bolt is the first BEV here to have semi-adequate range at a high but still-reachable, un-subsidized (by the feds) price. We need more BEVs priced like that, because lots of people don't qualify for anywhere near the full $7.5k fed. subsidy.

The wealthy continue to have more options, just as they always have, and one of those options is to ignore more practical considerations; they can just buy another car. The Lucid will be the first BEV to offer a guaranteed, repeatable 300 mile road trip range (with an 80% charge), something that any ICE costing $15k or more can do. But the Lucid starts at $139k, not $15k. When we get to 300 miles Hwy for $30k, I think the mass market will start to pay attention. Alternatively, if gas prices stay high for a year or so (San Francisco has an average price of $4.42/gal. Reg. at the moment), then maybe mass market consumers will accept the limitations of current BEVs (that they can afford) and begin to switch. More likely, they'll just buy an HEV or maybe a PHEV instead. Which is what they're doing, isn't it?

 

[WetEV]

The world has changed. Will you?

The world has changed, but nowhere near enough. 10 years ago, the major reasons people weren't buying BEVs were price, range and infrastructure. All have improved, yet mass market buyers still aren't buying them for the same three reasons.

Yet more people are buying them. Ten times as many. The "mass market" is last, not first.


Exponential growth.

0.125% 0.25% 0.5% 1% 2% 4% 8% 16% 32% 64%(aka "mass market")

Looks tiny, at first. Gets huge later. There are at least three reasons why growth is exponential.

Social, people take time to adapt new technologies. Look at Norway: the government committed to making EVs cheaper than competing gasoline cars by tax reductions and subsidies. Still took over 10 years for new sales of PHEVs to exceed 50% of total sales.

Manufacturing. Takes time to build factories to make batteries, and even harder to see, time to build factories to make the machines to make the batteries. As technology is improving, no one wants to build too much high cost today's technology when lower cost technology is on the way.

Infrastructure. There is a curve of people's infrastructure needs and wants. A small fraction can live with just L1 charging in the garage, requiring almost zero infrastructure. Another small fraction might want 350kW chargers everywhere, and has no economic "at home" charging. As market share expands, so will infrastructure. As infrastructure expands, so will market share.

 

[GRA]

The world has changed. Will you?

The world has changed, but nowhere near enough. 10 years ago, the major reasons people weren't buying BEVs were price, range and infrastructure. All have improved, yet mass market buyers still aren't buying them for the same three reasons.

Yet more people are buying them. Ten times as many. The "mass market" is last, not first.

Of course more people are buying them, They've improved considerably but not enough to compete head to head without subsidies, they're available in a wider variety of types, and the mandates are getting stricter.

Exponential growth.

0.125% 0.25% 0.5% 1% 2% 4% 8% 16% 32% 64%(aka "mass market")

Looks tiny, at first. Gets huge later. There are at least three reasons why growth is exponential.

Social, people take time to adapt new technologies. Look at Norway: the government committed to making EVs cheaper than competing gasoline cars by tax reductions and subsidies. Still took over 10 years for new sales of PHEVs to exceed 50% of total sales.

Uh huh, which kind of blows the whole "BEVs are so superior to ICEs that everyone will want one" claim out of the water.

Manufacturing. Takes time to build factories to make batteries, and even harder to see, time to build factories to make the machines to make the batteries. As technology is improving, no one wants to build too much high cost today's technology when lower cost technology is on the way.

Infrastructure. There is a curve of people's infrastructure needs and wants. A small fraction can live with just L1 charging in the garage, requiring almost zero infrastructure. Another small fraction might want 350kW chargers everywhere, and has no economic "at home" charging. As market share expands, so will infrastructure. As infrastructure expands, so will market share.

As has been pointed out to you before, growth hasn't been exponential here, a country with some of the longest range needs, generally lower subsidies and minimal mandates. Once the price, range and infrastructure have improved to the point that mass market consumers can seriously consider them, then we'll see exponential growth. Always assuming mandates don't force people to switch before then.