2 Years of Leaf : EV Activitists' Hopes and Reality

[Nubo]

Simply pointing out that even the most phenomenal of successes start modestly.

Yes - but every company that starts modestly (don't every new company start modestly ?) doesn't end up as the largest company on the stock market. Just as every dropout doesn't become Bill Gates.

So, pointing out such things are not useful to figuring out where Tesla is headed.

It is useful to me, in context of two companies that were in debt and widely believed to be ultimate losers, yet had unique IP and stayed true to a vision of a way of doing things that ultimately resonated with the user.

Now you may say this also doesn't guarantee success and that's entirely true. But neither does the fact that they're currently not profitable guarantee failure. My point is that they have a great idea and are beginning to execute and I admire them in very much the same way I admired Apple in '96/'97.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I don't see Leaf sales really taking off unless there some global or national oil shock/shortage (e.g. gas going to $8+/gal, shortages like the 70s oil crises). Or, there are some massive incentives in the US or massive disincentives to buy ICEVs (almost no chance of either of these, IMHO). I think Leaf sales will stay about level w/where they are, unless it becomes much cheaper and/or has more range.

we already have massive disincentives for ICE ownership. its called buying fuel and maintaining vehicle. Word of Mouth advertising will be the main driver just like it was for the Prius.

Unlike the Prius, the LEAF does not (despite what most people think) have effective nationwide distribution as of yet. Can only think that the TN plant will change that to where even the most remote Nissan dealership will have at least one of each color to choose from

We thought, if only a highway capable car with a decent amount of range, priced affordably from a major automaker was available, the car would find a lot of buyers. Infact we thought, until the TN factory opened, Leaf would always be a special order in short supply. We thought, people will see Leafs on the road and that will motivate them to buy EVs.

and that will be true. word of mouth in the here is much greater than say Sioux City Iowa but that is because LEAFs have been here more than a year and a half. we also have to look at the word of mouth being complicated by several buyers who were simply unaware of what they were buying despite Nissan's "best" effort to provide the information.

we all know that Nissan posted charts on estimated range and it was pretty clear that the only chance at getting 100 miles was to drive pretty slowly.

but when it gets down to it; the price is still an obstacle.

We thought we would have a wide Quick Charging network - what with the $500 Million EVProject. The reality has been so different, with DCQC barely there. Infact I'm yet to use one (though probably a minority in the Seattle area). Poor business judgement of Ecotality combined with various regulatory hurdles has hampered deployement of a QC network.

like Nissan, Uncle Sam said "ya, thats a good idea!, let me help you" and flipped them a few bucks and said "there ya go!"

there is no real governmental support here which makes it nearly impossible to establish any kind of support. the huge differences in the # of public charging facilities from one area to the next should be more than enough to tell us that.

We thought Nissan would have done the needed studies. Infact, a Leaf was supposed to have been continuously running in AZ to test the longevity of the battery. The chemistry of the battery was such that active cooling wasn't needed. But the reality has been that in warmer places, the battery has degraded - at least according to Leaf's instruments - faster than anyone had imagined.

this requires the most speculation of all. Nothing makes sense other than that Nissan rushed the vehicle to market knowing its limitations and hoped to have a sufficient battery supply and better chemistry available from TN before the issues were noticed.

that did not happen. why they miscalculated? hard to say but definitely makes the reason for that "acceptance" agreement we all signed, a bit clearer.

If I were Nissan and I had a better battery in the works and just needed more time to develop and produce it, how would I handle current customers?

well, cant say "we knew your car had problems in the heat but we needed to get the product out there to study a few processes. hope you dont mind?"

but all this has been rehashed a dozen times. Nissan's inaction on what is a grave situation in the SW is a mistake. Not providing battery purchase prices is a mistake. these are all very obvious PR nightmares and all seem to be an indication that Nissan is hiding something. something big.

I think that what we are seeing as far as cheap leases will continue into 2013 but slightly higher. What I paid for my LEAF is a price that will never be that high again. Might not be the $199 lease deal but betting it wont be over $250

This reminds me of a CD sale about 15 years ago (or more...) it was buy 2 at the regular price, get another one ½ off. at $20 a pop, i thought i was making out like a bandit.

there are two BIG things to look forward to in the next 4 weeks. the Nissan Announcement and the decision on the fiscal cliff. hope they are happy with each other

 

[Train]

I've been talking about reality for a couple years here. Looks like it's just as I stated it would be.

You were just cheerleading for Volt. That hasn't done too well either ...

I did no such thing.

I said most people would prefer a Volt to a Leaf if they had to buy either and that it would be more attractive to the average car buyer because of the extended range.

I stated long ago that the Leaf should be leased, not purchased.
I stated long ago that there was no way Nissan was going to sell Leaf's in the numbers they forecasted.
I stated long ago that Leafs would end up on dealer lots aplenty after EV enthusiasts got theirs.
I stated long ago that EV's and the Leaf are a tough sell because of the many limitations.

 

[tbleakne]

In the SoCal area the deployment of L2 charging over the last two years has been fairly impressive in terms of raw quantity of stations, but the lack of quality L2 locations has been one of my biggest disappointments.

We still don't have a single restaurant chain or movie chain in our area committed to installing L2 charging. Kudos to Walgreens and Kohls, who are installing L2 on multiple properties, but most of us don't need to spend enough time in either of these to get a substantial charge. The utility of these stations depends upon their proximity to other establishments.

After a slow start, a few stations are appearing at some upscale malls where there are multiple ways to spend time during a charge, but these represent a small fraction of the total, and there are usually too few stations.

One can fill the Pip's battery completely in 1.5 hrs of L2, so their location is not too critical, but the problem gets worse for larger battery sizes. L2 charging at current levels above 30A is extremely rare. Right now only Teslas and RAV4 EVs can use levels about 30A, but I believe larger on-board chargers need not be cost-prohibitive for other brands as well.

At the high end of the scale, consider the utility of the 60 kWh and 85 kWh Tesla Model-S for out-of-town trips. Right now they will be totally dependent upon the deployment of SuperChargers, because they do not support CHAdeMO and filling their batteries with L2 would take many hours. They could replenish their batteries on an overnight 30A L2 charge, but the number of motels, hotels, and lodges that offer L2 appears extremely limited and hard to find. As with restaurants, we need a major motel chain to commit to L2 installations.

 

[Caracalover]

So in December of 2011, 954 Leaf's were sold. ( http://www.hybridcars.com/december-2011-dashboard-sales-still-climbing-35093/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )

In November of 2012, 1539 Leaf's were sold. ( http://www.hybridcars.com/november-2012-dashboard-65420" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; )

December should be a better month for car sales overall than November. Nissan just upped the cash back on a Leaf lease to $10k, so this December's numbers will likely double last years. So sales are better this year than last, and next year if this is an exponential trend (Which I believe it is) next year we will see the Leaf start to turn heads with its sales figures. Cutting into that market are other offerings, but Nissan has the factory now, and the price is only going lower while the others are still priced too high.

A car that is simple, requires no mechanic for years on end?

People just haven't heard about it yet.

Every one that is sold, sells at least one more, often two.

 

[Train]

If the only way to sell these cars is to give massive incentives, then reality has another surprise for you.

 

[hill]

If the only way to sell these cars is to give massive incentives, then reality has another surprise for you.

You forget - the standard "ICE" benefits via "massive incentives" vis a vis half price gasoline. If one factors into gasoline acquisition all of the military costs, environmental, oil company tax breaks, health issues, etc we'd be paying prices like much of the rest of the world. Heck, even smokes cost a ton now because society grasps the health issues ... but not toxic liquid explosive fuel. Yes, don't EVEN talk massive incentives.

 

[Caracalover]

If the only way to sell these cars is to give massive incentives, then reality has another surprise for you.

We have over 50,000 plug-in cars on U.S. roads today, up from about 3,000 just two years ago. There are at least 12 plug-in models available for purchase or lease today, and this time next year, there will be close to 20.

http://www.newsherald.com/news/business/electric-vehicles-proving-popular-1.68215" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"For the second year in a row, Consumer Reports’ ranked the Chevy Volt as the most-loved car by its owners. Also ranking high atop the magazine’s findings was Toyota’s Camry Hybrid, Prius, Prius C and Nissan’s Leaf."

Incentives helped get the rock rolling, but once customer satisfaction statistics start to come in, no moss will grow. I do hope the incentives continue, but even without them a market is growing. People afford what they want to afford, if they want to afford it bad enough. Most people that know about electric cars know they are a better way to get around, they just can't justify a new car right now, or have no easy way to plug in. It will take a little time, two years is barely starting, but a 1000%+ increase in the number of electric vehicles on the road is not to be sneezed at.

 

[Train]

You forget - the standard "ICE" benefits via "massive incentives" vis a vis half price gasoline. If one factors into gasoline acquisition all of the military costs, environmental, oil company tax breaks, health issues, etc we'd be paying prices like much of the rest of the world. Heck, even smokes cost a ton now because society grasps the health issues ... but not toxic liquid explosive fuel. Yes, don't EVEN talk massive incentives

:roll:

You forgot Fox news, Haliburton, MIHOP, Carl Rove, Diebold...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Incentives?
Average MSRP of Ford trucks on lot $52,000
Average selling price 42,700

 

[TomT]

There is one big difference, however. The Prius did not require any change in driving habits. You just put gas in it and drove it like any other car. It simply used less of it... This is not true of the Leaf and that is a dramatic shift in paradigm...

Word of Mouth advertising will be the main driver just like it was for the Prius.

 

[GRA]

Word of Mouth advertising will be the main driver just like it was for the Prius.

There is one big difference, however. The Prius did not require any change in driving habits. You just put gas in it and drove it like any other car. It simply used less of it... This is not true of the Leaf and that is a dramatic shift in paradigm...

Right, and that's why PHEVs will be far more acceptable to the masses than limited-range BEVs. Less of a paradigm shift, more utility and convenience, minimal uncertainty about long-term viability.

 

[GRA]

Bob Lutz nails it:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/boblutz/2012/12/20/whats-gone-wrong-with-the-electric-vehicle-market-nothing/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Bazooka]

One issue Nissan has to solve is how well their dealers communicate with the public. In my recent shopping for a Leaf:

One dealer's salesman could barely manage to grin like an idiot and keep saying, "And it doesn't need gas!" repeatedly. It was like watching a cave man play with a flashlight.

A second dealer's salesman was utterly clueless about the current NMAC leasing offers, which were listed on the dealer's own web site. I pointed this out to him repeatedly, and he refused to look at the site or ask anyone about it. Finally he said that if I could "find any additional monies" they would honor the deal, while never admitting that the deal listed on their web site was really there.

A third dealer's salesman tried to impress me with the claim that the Leaf is the only car (not EV, but car) in the world to use a lithium battery. He also seemed in love with the fact(?) that the Leaf has the only modular battery in the world, so that individual cells could be replaced when (not if) they failed. He seemed oblivious to the fact that telling a prospective EV buyer/leaser that the battery would suffer such failures wasn't exactly a good idea.

To be clear: I don't expect every salesperson in a dealership to be a stone-cold expert on every detail of every model they sell. But when I walk into a dealership I do expect the sales people to sound like they know roughly as much as I do (or more, preferably) about a vehicle they're trying to sell me. And with something new on the market, like an EV, this is more critical than ever, as most people asking about it are likely have done their early-adopter-style homework.

(I'm in Western NY. Anyone who wants to know which dealers I'm talking about -- message me.)

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

There is one big difference, however. The Prius did not require any change in driving habits. You just put gas in it and drove it like any other car. It simply used less of it... This is not true of the Leaf and that is a dramatic shift in paradigm...

Word of Mouth advertising will be the main driver just like it was for the Prius.

as a sole source of transportation i b guessing u mean?? well wont get that word from this mouth.

several people here have found the true benefit of the EV and that is for errands, short commutes or about 90% of their daily driving need. If the LEAF only had 65 miles of range, it would still cover more than 93% of all trips made every day.

"that" is the word I am referring to.

case in point; my Prius averages about 52-53 MPG in the Summer, about 47-48 in Winter. For anyone here who drives a Prius, the first thing that will come from their mouth is "why is the range so narrow?"

its nothing to average 48 mpg in Winter but those people average 58+ mpg in Summer. Well the reason is that the Prius does not do 50% of the short errand trips like it used to before I started driving EV. Right now, it does about 9-19% of them.

People will catch on to this because we will tell them. they will think about it, observe us from across the yard. it will take a bit. they will come back and ask further questions but they will get more from their neighbor than they ever will from a 30 second ad on the TV

 

[EdmondLeaf]

Very encouraging - CNG truck deliver gasoline to gas station - things are changing. In the future we will not need those trucks, and already more and more stations of different kind, just wait

 

[EVDrive]

2 years in, and we are making great progress in the EV movement. Nissan sold 50,000 Leaf EV's worldwide, the Volt is selling well and the fact that the Model S is in production is an amazing accomplishment. Many critics said none of those things would happen.

Nissan is hitting some bumps in the road like their battery not holding up in the extreme heat, and an organized campaign against the chademo standard from GM and their minions at the SAE . No single fast charge standard is hurting all the EV sales worldwide and slowing adoption. The Focus, the Fit and the RAV 4 EV will never sell in number without fast charging. I wouldn't pay $40 - 50,000 for a car that takes 4-8 hours to fill up and obviously not many others are willing either.

As Phil pointed out the L2 standard onboard chargers for EV's should be 10 KWh at a minimum. 3.3 kWh onboard the Leaf was a huge mistake in the US. The L2 infrastructure being built out now is going to be outdated in a few years which considering the cost to deploy is a huge shame. Future proofing to 10 or 20 KWh is a much better idea.

The fact that I can't go 100 miles on the freeway on a single charge like Nissan initially implied and the fact that it takes 8 hours to charge at home are my 2 biggest complaints about the Leaf. I drive 100 miles a day to work and back, charge at work and when I get home I have to wait 4 hours until I have enough charge to drive the Leaf into town for an evening out. People who don't have social commitments and a long commute don't worry about this but in the Bay Area my needs are pretty standard.

I'm excited about the BMW i3 which will have fast charging and the 2013 Leaf which if rumors hold will be a good improvement over the Leaf gen1 with faster onboard charging and hopefully some good battery improvements. If we could get a 150 mile pack option in the Leaf with thermal management, that would be amazing. Not yet on the pack size options my friends at Nissan have told me but maybe in a few years. I can't wait. We are making good progress.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I personally think that Nissan effectively addressed the 3.3 Kw charging with the quick charge port. this will be hard to understand except for the fact that with QC's 25 miles apart. there is no reason to spend more than 10-12 minutes charging. This works. Trust me, I did it and never came close to running out of charge, being bored sitting at the charging station, or being able to meet a widely spread out rigid time demand.

If we look at a 10 Kwh charger, first thing we see is that you pretty much have to do something when you charge. one thing I found that if the weather sucks, or i am tired or simply not in the mood, 10 minutes is about all the time I can stand to just sit there watching the station work.

now my routine is plug in. head to business at charging location (I always spend money there since charging is free and its easy to do) my options at the various locations near me

gas station; lottery tickets, coffee (of which i have an addiction too... in WA a common problem. Starbucks knew what they were doing when they based their company here...) and sometimes food.

Fast Food; lunch and the best part is that I have had time constraints where I had minimal time to charge but as we all know, a 5 year old has a small stomach and therefore a small window of viability. so, i would get charging going. walk in, order food to go. get back out. answer a few texts, emails, and eat and by then it was time to go (eating while car is moving is something I do but prefer not to with Son who tends to make a mess and we both eat fast, so it good)

Grocery Store; by far the best option. I always have something I need to buy and if I can grab a 15 minute charge while grocery shopping, its its its... ah you already know what I mean!

 

[thankyouOB]

Bob Lutz nails it:
and part of what he says is:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/boblutz/2012/12/20/whats-gone-wrong-with-the-electric-vehicle-market-nothing/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I have steadfastly maintained that, by 2020, EVs, EREVs and strong hybrids might account for 10% of the U.S. market, or about 1.5 million units. We’re a long way from that now.

Ultimately, of course, the world will be populated by EVs only, and I make that prediction frequently. Trouble is, nobody quite seems to hear “ultimately,” or can’t or won’t understand it.[/i]

 

[evnow]

Bob Lutz nails it:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/boblutz/2012/12/20/whats-gone-wrong-with-the-electric-vehicle-market-nothing/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Huh ? He was one of the leading cheerleaders for Plugins with highly exaggerated sales predictions. Apparently he thinks nobody can search the internet for his earlier statements.

http://insideevs.com/bob-lutz-electric-vehicle-market-is-just-fine-as-slow-as-it-is/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“My guess is the initial demand for the vehicle (Volt) will be so high that we will decide to expand capacity as fast as we can and as much as we can. The studies for this are starting, but we have to actually wait until the vehicle is on sale to see what the true world-wide demand is. But right now our production is being laid out for fifty to sixty thousand a year once we’re in full swing which will be the calendar year 2012.

I believe that’s at least fifty percent too low. I believe the true word-wide demand is more like one hundred to one hundred twenty thousand and that may not be enough.”