EnvSciTeacher said:
One dealer had a "no haggle" price on a 2015 S + Charge Package for $27,410 + DMV charges. I'm sure I can get similar or better deals on 2014s. Nissan USA is offering 0% for 72 months + $3500 cash back on 2014 models. If I'm doing the math right, after 3 years with no downpayment I would have paid (assuming the "no haggle" price) $13,706, with the same amount yet to pay on the loan. I would have received the $7500 federal tax credit.
My guess is that the $3500 from Nissan is included in the "no haggle" price. Dealers like to play that game. If the $3500 is not included in that price, then it's a really great deal.
IMHO many people (I'm going to make gross generalizations) on this forum are reflexively opposed to purchasing (vs leasing) a Leaf due to a combination of 1) the battery chemistry was really bad in 2011 and 2012 models for places with very hot climates (like Phoenix, Texas, etc), 2) the Leaf was much more expensive then (like $7k), 3) Nissan took way too long to come out with the battery capacity warranty and battery replacement programs, and 4) dealers lied about the range capacity. So all of this bitterness and fear brewed and churned for a few years and they are very risk adverse.
But we know that the battery chemistry has improved in 2013 (some people are reporting much less than expected degradation), again in 2014, and again in 2015. And Nissan now guarantees that the battery capacity will be at least 67% through 60/60,000 and will replace it if it drops below that. And once the warranty is through you can still purchase a replacement battery--and this battery will have whatever advanced chemistry is available at that time, and probably be on the order of $3k or so (my guess for 7 years from now) since battery prices are falling pretty rapidly.
If you purchase you do take some risk. There are a number of uncertainties, such as a lack of 20 year maintenance histories for the Leaf, uncertain duration of the tax credits (which depress resale values while they are in effect), uncertain future gas prices (they will go up, but how much?), uncertain effect on resale values of future cars that have longer ranges (we don't know when those will be released, how long the ranges will be, and what the cars will cost), and advancements in EV technology that bring down prices in new cars (and will bring down resale values in the used market).
My guess is that in 3 years you will get more than $10k for it. In fact, the 2011's are selling wholesale at auction for more than that now, even with the tax credits and the lousy battery chemistry, etc. And since you have a limited commute and it's a second car and NJ doesn't get all that hot, I think it could be a really good option for you.
My choice was to purchase. I'm happy with that decision. If the battery degradation model people in the forum have used is accurate, my expected driving needs will still be satisfied with the original battery 10 years from now. If not, I can decide whether to replace it. And with what I paid for the car after tax credits and cash back and financing, it will still be cheaper than an ICE even if it completely dies and is worth $0 in year 5.1 when most of the warranties have expired.