Tesla Model X

Decided to put this here rather than the Model S thread, but it could go in either. Via ievs:

Tesla Now Pays $1,000 For Referral Sales, First To Refer Ten Gets Free Model X

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http://insideevs.com/tesla-now-pays-1000-referral-sales-first-ten-gets-free-model-x/

javan said:

We have reserved a model X. We will be all electric, keeping our 2012 Leaf, and having the X for hauling and trips. I'm excited about it.

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I had an early-ish reservation (sub 8k), but I finally gave up. Honestly I just decided between being able to get an i3 w/Rex at less than 1/2 the cost, the fact that it is not clear when the Model X will really come out, and some of the styling queues from car shows it just didn't seem worth waiting any more.

As for the post about other car makers "just getting a clue." I think they have a very good clue, they just have chosen not to play in the market. Some of it is probably because they have much bigger fish to fry with traditional ICE, the other is because they sense there is not a long term profitable market in 250 mile >$70K car market. It competes with too many more compelling products that sell many many more units and are probably much more profitable.

Keep in mind that to date Tesla is not anywhere near profitable even with the very high pricing. Yes, a lot of it has gone into infrastructure in the past. But I am guessing that even accounting for that Tesla as is is not a compelling business case without a mass market Model 3.

http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=TSLA

I had an early-ish reservation (sub 8k), but I finally gave up.

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I'm expecting my model X to appear early next summer (perfect for us) given the history of the model S production. We want to pull a travel trailer with it and it looks like the latest numbers show about a 10,000 lb capacity. Will Tesla make it as a company? I don't know, but I hope so. We have never purchased a vehicle for anywhere near this price, but I haven't seen anything else as compelling in the all-electric range that will do what this Model X is supposed to do.

epirali said:

Some of it is probably because they have much bigger fish to fry with traditional ICE, the other is because they sense there is not a long term profitable market in 250 mile >$70K car market. It competes with too many more compelling products that sell many many more units and are probably much more profitable.

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Like which ones ? I thought S had a pretty good market share of the >$70k market.

evnow said:

epirali said:

Some of it is probably because they have much bigger fish to fry with traditional ICE, the other is because they sense there is not a long term profitable market in 250 mile >$70K car market. It competes with too many more compelling products that sell many many more units and are probably much more profitable.

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Like which ones ? I thought S had a pretty good market share of the >$70k market.

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You are absolutely correct, at least last year or so it has managed to outsell the top model of the luxury brand vehicles. But this represents a very small portion of those manufacturers sales/income. For example Audi sells many more A3/A4/A5s than A8s. So unless and until Tesla has a Model 3 and sells large numbers they are smartly focused on the lower unit/larger margin sub-segment. But the overall size of the sub-market is not big enough for big manufacturers to build a business around.

Audi sold around 1.6 million vehicles worldwide last year. Compare that to 35,000 for Tesla. That is why big manufacturers don't care to compete.

javan said:

I had an early-ish reservation (sub 8k), but I finally gave up.

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I'm expecting my model X to appear early next summer (perfect for us) given the history of the model S production. We want to pull a travel trailer with it and it looks like the latest numbers show about a 10,000 lb capacity. Will Tesla make it as a company? I don't know, but I hope so. We have never purchased a vehicle for anywhere near this price, but I haven't seen anything else as compelling in the all-electric range that will do what this Model X is supposed to do.

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I think you will absolutely love it. I am hoping Tesla gets the Model 3 out and does very well. I already have 3 other electric cars and I guess am too immature to keep waiting! :mrgreen:

epirali said:

Audi sold around 1.6 mi makes senSeOR worldwide last year. Compare that to 35,000 for Tesla. That is why big manufacturers don't care to compete.

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But if you just look at A8 & S - if they are selling in comparable numbers - it makes sense for Audi to compete with its own EV. Better your EV taking away sales from A8 than some else's.

evnow said:

epirali said:

Audi sold around 1.6 mi makes senSeOR worldwide last year. Compare that to 35,000 for Tesla. That is why big manufacturers don't care to compete.

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But if you just look at A8 & S - if they are selling in comparable numbers - it makes sense for Audi to compete with its own EV. Better your EV taking away sales from A8 than some else's.

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Except A8 is a link in a production chain, there are commonalities and efficiencies. And it appeals to ICE drivers.

I think what German luxury brands are planning (reading tea leaves here) is that they would rather start with plug in hybrids with 40 mile electric range, then introduce all electric variants but at lower models. Essentially entering mid-market not high end. Which I believe it is imperative for Tesla to get entrenched in 40k market (model 3) very soon.

Until Teslas or other top-end BEVs have the battery capacity and cooling ability to drive for two or more hours at autobahn speeds, I very much doubt that they'll be much competition to high end luxo/performance sedans or CUVs _in Germany_, whether ICE or PHEV.

epirali said:

Except A8 is a link in a production chain, there are commonalities and efficiencies. And it appeals to ICE drivers.

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Similarly they can start a EV production chain - which ICE can also benefit (like the BMW i series).

I think what German luxury brands are planning (reading tea leaves here) is that they would rather start with plug in hybrids with 40 mile electric range, then introduce all electric variants but at lower models. Essentially entering mid-market not high end. Which I believe it is imperative for Tesla to get entrenched in 40k market (model 3) very soon.

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This is more for compliance than any grand strategy.

Let us assume Apple also comes to the market with its own EVs. In a decade or so German car makers will be in the same spot their well known Finnish phone maker counterpart was a couple of years back.

evnow said:

epirali said:

Except A8 is a link in a production chain, there are commonalities and efficiencies. And it appeals to ICE drivers.

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Similarly they can start a EV production chain - which ICE can also benefit (like the BMW i series).

I think what German luxury brands are planning (reading tea leaves here) is that they would rather start with plug in hybrids with 40 mile electric range, then introduce all electric variants but at lower models. Essentially entering mid-market not high end. Which I believe it is imperative for Tesla to get entrenched in 40k market (model 3) very soon.

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This is more for compliance than any grand strategy.

Let us assume Apple also comes to the market with its own EVs. In a decade or so German car makers will be in the same spot their well known Finnish phone maker counterpart was a couple of years back.

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True about once there are multiple models parts and lines can be reused. But tesla has one model, with a second model now in almost 3 year delay, and the hardest to make 3rd variant still with no fixed release date.

As for compliance: I don't agree. BMW and Audi are now making various drive trains for deployment into main lines, not just making compliance cars. Tesla no longer has the luxury of having no competitor and being the only game in town, specially because by 2017 there should be multiple mid-range cars with 200 mile range. Audi already has announced a Q6 and Q8 with 250-300 mile range. And guess is it will be priced lower than a Tesla.

And I hate to say it but a primary BEV with a range extender is probably a much more compelling solution.

epirali said:

As for compliance: I don't agree.

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One of the execs actually said it. EU regulations call mainly for PHEVs - and that is what they are building.

Audi already has announced a Q6 and Q8 with 250-300 mile range. And guess is it will be priced lower than a Tesla.

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We all agree Audi is the world leader in making plugin announcements

There is no reason why these plugins by German OEMs will be anymore successful than PHEVs by Porsche.

And I hate to say it but a primary BEV with a range extender is probably a much more compelling solution.

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I think this will be a compelling solution for lower end PHEVs. Not sure about highend - where the status counts for more than anything else. Definitely hybrids (even plugin variety) have lower status than pure BEV, thanks to Tesla.

evnow said:

epirali said:

As for compliance: I don't agree.

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One of the execs actually said it. EU regulations call mainly for PHEVs - and that is what they are building.

Audi already has announced a Q6 and Q8 with 250-300 mile range. And guess is it will be priced lower than a Tesla.

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We all agree Audi is the world leader in making plugin announcements

There is no reason why these plugins by German OEMs will be anymore successful than PHEVs by Porsche.

And I hate to say it but a primary BEV with a range extender is probably a much more compelling solution.

Click to expand...

I think this will be a compelling solution for lower end PHEVs. Not sure about highend - where the status counts for more than anything else. Definitely hybrids (even plugin variety) have lower status than pure BEV, thanks to Tesla.

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Well, I mean to say Audi is making announcements can be flipped into Audi is making a BUNCH of PHEVs and BEVs. At this point they have given release dates for the BEV drive train (where they had not before), so I guess we can stick our head in the sand, but I think these cars are coming.

I think BEVs will be as successful, if not more so, than Teslas offering. If I can get an SUV with similar range, lower price and backed by Audi I think it would tilt easily in Audis favor. I would expect much higher quality interior than Tesla, and would be sure the car will be backed for years to come.

I am not sure about the status argument. Not that Tesla is not riding on status, it obviously is. The car is not worth the price it is going for if it was not for status. But I think that market is pretty saturated at this point, and I assume this is a market large car makers find too small. On the other hand to offer a BEV variant of a platform makes perfect sense. It has advantages Tesla does not: major cost portions are paid for by the "cousins" in the line. And I think it is hard to argue that an Audi or BMW BEV won't have enough "status" compared to Tesla.

And you realize in the low end Tesla HAS to succeed wildly with the Model 3 in order to survive long term. So to dismiss the potential success of a Rex type approach is a little bit like whistling past the graveyard for a company like Tesla. The i3 has not been a success so far, but I wonder if there will be other options with similar approach.

epirali said:

I had an early-ish reservation (sub 8k), but I finally gave up. Honestly I just decided between being able to get an i3 w/Rex at less than 1/2 the cost, the fact that it is not clear when the Model X will really come out, and some of the styling queues from car shows it just didn't seem worth waiting any more.
http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=TSLA

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Wise move! Elon just can't get that rear seat "right", or so he says. Besides the 3X loses for Q2, down adjusted
2015 sales guidance (now 50K - 55K units vs 55K), the Model X is possibly a "maybe" Q3 delivery. But I'm sure
many Model X reservations received a delivery promise (again) and a "thank you" for the deposit to help
with Tesla's huge negative cash flow.

Still promising. though, 200K units for 2017. What a guy that Elon, have to love him, i.e. he's kinda like Trump
(a joke) with his followers.

~30% more kWh in the battery pack, and ~50% more $ (assuming the non-sig base price is ~$107k) required, to get the same EPA range as an S70D.

Of course, the X90 will never get 240 EPA miles at the actual left-lane -speed of most California (and other state) freeways, when towing, and only get it at lower speeds in Winter or when in mountain use.

Looks to me like 90 kWh might wind up being the smallest battery pack offered in the X.

Or maybe a 70 kWh sub-$100k X will be announced, then cancelled, due to lack of interest...

Tesla Model X Signature Series: 240 Miles Range, 60 in 3.8 seconds, $132,000

The Tesla Model X design studio opened today for early Signature reservation holders. And with it, a good bulk of the unknown information surrounding the X was revealed.

For now, there is a single option, 90 kWh Tesla X, that has an estimated 240 miles (EPA) range, that will zip to 60 mph in 3.8 seconds and has a top speed of 155 mph.

A new Signature series Model X will set owners back anywhere from $132,000 (+1,200 DOC) to $144,000. A Signature Model X required a $40,000 deposit, as opposed to a $5,000 security for a ‘regular’ X. Tesla has estimated that the signature series comes with about a $25,000 premium over similar non-exclusive editions...

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http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-x-signature-series-240-miles-range-60-3-8-seconds-132000/

edatoakrun said:

~30% more kWh in the battery pack, and ~50% more $ (assuming the non-sig base price is ~$107k) required, to get the same EPA range as an S70D.

Of course, the X90 will never get 240 EPA miles at the actual left-lane -speed of most California (and other state) freeways, when towing, and only get it at lower speeds in Winter or when in mountain use.

Looks to me like 90 kWh might wind up being the smallest battery pack offered in the X.

Or maybe a 70 kWh sub-$100k X will be announced, then cancelled, due to lack of interest...

Tesla Model X Signature Series: 240 Miles Range, 60 in 3.8 seconds, $132,000

The Tesla Model X design studio opened today for early Signature reservation holders. And with it, a good bulk of the unknown information surrounding the X was revealed.

For now, there is a single option, 90 kWh Tesla X, that has an estimated 240 miles (EPA) range, that will zip to 60 mph in 3.8 seconds and has a top speed of 155 mph.

A new Signature series Model X will set owners back anywhere from $132,000 (+1,200 DOC) to $144,000. A Signature Model X required a $40,000 deposit, as opposed to a $5,000 security for a ‘regular’ X. Tesla has estimated that the signature series comes with about a $25,000 premium over similar non-exclusive editions...

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http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-x-signature-series-240-miles-range-60-3-8-seconds-132000/

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This can't be right. I am not being snarky but they can't possibly think they can raise the cost of the Model X by this much over Model S and get significant adoption. Maybe I am wrong, I guess we will see.

Well, these are the "Signature" version, which people seem to be willing to pay a premium for. I surely hope the standard production version is more reasonably priced.

~30% more kWh in the battery pack, and ~50% more $ (assuming the non-sig base price is ~$107k) required, to get the same EPA range as an S70D.

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You're right! I hadn't noticed that the X90D range is exactly the same as my S70D (which will be here within the week!) That's a much bigger hit than I expected (about 10%). The S90D is probably about 285 mile range, so that's more like a 15% hit. It looks like they need an X120D.

epirali said:

This can't be right. I am not being snarky but they can't possibly think they can raise the cost of the Model X by this much over Model S and get significant adoption. Maybe I am wrong, I guess we will see.

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I'm guessing you are wrong
The signatures are the performance versions and should be compared with a P90D (without the ludicrous speed update).
That comes to $118k.

Signature Ss had a $12,000 premium, adding that takes the price to $130k.

So no, the cost increase from Model S to Model X (at least the Sig version) is actually less than I thought it would be.

Some will likely drop their Sig reservation to regular production, or even all together now that they have seen some of the specs. I don't think they will have any trouble selling every one they can make.

keydiver said:

Well, these are the "Signature" version, which people seem to be willing to pay a premium for. I surely hope the standard production version is more reasonably priced.

~30% more kWh in the battery pack, and ~50% more $ (assuming the non-sig base price is ~$107k) required, to get the same EPA range as an S70D.

Click to expand...

You're right! I hadn't noticed that the X90D range is exactly the same as my S70D (which will be here within the week!) That's a much bigger hit than I expected (about 10%). The S90D is probably about 285 mile range, so that's more like a 15% hit. It looks like they need an X120D.

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A point in fact, the Model S-70D actually is EPA rated at 250, not 240. Tesla advertises it as 240 for now quite obvious reasons. The flagship Model X can't have the lowest range.

Yes, I'm very confident that a 100+ kWh Model X is just around the corner, in a year or two.

It'll be real interesting to see how the drive units hold up on these or if they end up w/lots of people getting them replaced for noise every ~15K miles or less...