Why Tesla Model X Electric SUV Is Late: Range, Towing, 'Falcon Doors'
By John Voelcker
...what follows is thus largely speculation, though we'd suggest it's informed speculation.
For many, that will dilute its credibility. Still, we thought our various discussion would be worth summarizing.
Here are the three reasons we think the Model X schedule lagged significantly from its originally announced launch date of late 2013.
(1) RANGE RATINGS
EPA range ratings for the various Tesla Model S versions range from 208 miles (with the 60-kilowatt-hour battery pack) to 270 miles (the 85-kWh "D" all-wheel-drive variant).
The Model X crossover utility will have all-wheel drive as standard equipment--but it's larger and heavier, and has a greater cross-sectional area, than the lower, lighter, sleeker Model S.
A 60-kWh version could well be rated under 200 miles, likely making it a non-starter at a price of $70,000 or higher. The 85-kWh Model X would likely hit about 225 miles of range...
That means that Tesla is likely working furiously to get every single additional mile of rated range out of the Model X...
(2) STRUCTURAL IMPACT OF FALCON DOORS
...There may remain two issues: Side-impact protection, and the effect of the complicated torsion springs on the aluminum roof structure...
3) TOWING CAPABILITY
...sustaining the maximum output of electric motors in continuous use puts huge thermal loads on them--just as racing does...
But even the glycol-based coolant system in the Model S P85D may not suffice to protect the Model X motors while towing at capacity, especially if going from, say, San Francisco to Reno, a 5,000-foot increase in elevation.
Tesla may now be testing a thermal-conditioning system that uses refrigerant, like an air-conditioning system that actively removes heat from the coolant rather than simply shedding it via radiators...
The big worry for more than one of our sources is this: Has the Model X team managed to solve all of these problems to the point that the electric SUV can go into mass production six month hence?
"I personally think we are 18-24 months away from a general Model X release right now," said the most pessimistic of our sources.
"I am just not seeing a company ramping up tooling and equipment to deliver a new vehicle in less than four or five months from now."...
Tesla affirmed just last week, however, that in fact it is "on track for a Q3 launch."
The company is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings this Wednesday after the stock market closes.
It may offer further details on the Model X schedule at that time.
