Tesla Model X

[TonyWilliams]

And you realize in the low end Tesla HAS to succeed wildly with the Model 3 in order to survive long term. So to dismiss the potential success of a Rex type approach is a little bit like whistling past the graveyard for a company like Tesla. The i3 has not been a success so far, but I wonder if there will be other options with similar approach.

Tesla isn't going to make a hydrogen or a hybrid car. Sorry if that's what you think they need to make. They did look carefully at both from the earliest days of Tesla (2003):

"Why instead of competing based on price, why not compete based on other factors such as performance and design so that an alternative fuel car could exist that people actually wanted. As Martin Eberhard and his friend Marc Tarpenning explored this, they even looked at celluosic ethanol and hydrogen fuel cells before ultimately deciding to work on the electric car."

http://teslarumors.com/HowTeslaBegan


The GM Volt appears to be that successful plug-in serial hybrid you're looking for:

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099350_2016-chevy-volt-epa-ratings-53-mile-electric-range-42-mpg-on-gas

GM Volt
53 EPA miles of electric-only range
367 miles of gasoline only range
42 MPG in gasoline only operation
MPGe combined of 106
Total range of 420 miles


vs

BMW i3 REx
72 miles of electric-only range
39 MPG in gasoline only operation
MPGe combined of 117
Total range of 150 miles

 

[TonyWilliams]

This can't be right. I am not being snarky but they can't possibly think they can raise the cost of the Model X by this much over Model S and get significant adoption. Maybe I am wrong, I guess we will see.

How much did people (you) pay for a teeny tiny 2 seat EV car? $140,000?

 

[scottf200]

This was not my backfitting on the price to the 70D (black lower right). I apologize to whoever did this effort. (update: user MassX1317) I should have saved it in the file name.

Image: http://i.imgur.com/mwfSSQH.png

Image: http://i.imgur.com/KOkdsd7.png

Image: http://i.imgur.com/bsIodS9.png

 

[edatoakrun]

="scottf200" This was not my backfitting on the price to the 70D...

Well, as soon as Tesla runs out of suckers... I mean high-end fashion leaders... we'll know what the stripper X price starts at.

Do you really believe that the X will be offered with a pack smaller than ~85 - 90 kWh, other than perhaps as a low-volume loss-leader?

 

[dgpcolorado]

...A point in fact, the Model S-70D actually is EPA rated at 250, not 240. Tesla advertises it as 240 for now quite obvious reasons. The flagship Model X can't have the lowest range.

Yes, I'm very confident that a 100+ kWh Model X is just around the corner, in a year or two.

Seems likely. It was apparent that the 90 kWh battery pack was needed for the X and it also appears — to me, at least — that the 90 (or 85?) will be the base model for X. An X70D would have an EPA range of about 190 miles. Would Tesla even bother with that? Musk has said that an EV should have at least 200 miles of "real world" range.

 

[scottf200]

My spreadsheet to see if there is a premium for a Signature version of the X (vs general production)
or for the X over the S.
Not much difference.

Image: http://i.imgur.com/UKDtkkv.png
<snip> old missed included 3rd row

 

[scottf200]

="scottf200" This was not my backfitting on the price to the 70D...

Well, as soon as Tesla runs out of suckers... I mean high-end fashion leaders... we'll know what the stripper X price starts at.

Do you really believe that the X will be offered with a pack smaller than ~85 - 90 kWh, other than perhaps as a low-volume loss-leader?

As long as it is over 200 miles then I think yes. May see a 75kWh like the (85->90) change, tho. How much do you need on a long day "around town or suburbs"?!?

Below is with a radius/range of 125 miles.
Image: http://i.imgur.com/BQRuKpB.jpg

 

[GRA]

Via ievs:

Tesla CEO Musk On Model X Pricing (via Twitter of course)

http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/musk-Model-x-pricing-tweet.jpg

@elonmusk: With same options, Model X is $5k more than an S due to greater size and body complexity

 

[scottf200]

Someone pointed out that the 3rd row is included in the Model X signature version so the "equivalent" configured X is less than the S.

Image: http://i.imgur.com/KQSIoWG.png

 

[edatoakrun]

First delivery date reported, to meet the "third quarter deadline, with a whole day to spare!

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -- Tesla Motors will begin delivering its luxury electric crossover, the Model X, on Sept. 29 to customers in the U.S. who have already reserved the SUV.

The Model X, eagerly awaited since it was announced in early 2012, will launch with a premium-priced special version called the Signature series that will cost between $132,000 and $144,000, a Tesla spokeswoman said.

It is customary for automakers to debut higher-priced versions of their cars before introducing standard models.

CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the first cars would be handed over Sept. 29 at the company's factory in Fremont, Calif...

http://www.autonews.com/article/20150903/COPY01/309039990/tesla-will-begin-deliveries-of-model-x-on-sept-29

So within a month (if not before) we should get some actual numbers on X90 range and efficiency.

I am curious about how much this whale will weigh.

I do expect the GVWR to exceed three tons, since that should meet the Section 179 deduction, and history shows Tesla in not a corporation given to passing on an available tax subsidy.

I'm sure there are many dentists and accountants out there, who really need an X, to do their jobs...

 

[RegGuheert]

Does anyone else think the pricing for the X might indicate that Tesla will struggle to get the 3 pricing into the ballpark of a Nissan LEAF, even a MY2017 with a significantly-larger battery?

To date, it seems the Tesla product pricing has come out ABOVE the high end of expectations.

(And I am not saying this is all bad. A big part of Tesla's mystique is the "exclusive" aspect of their products. I think they will price the 3 about 1/3 more than the LEAF so that potential LEAF buyers will need to stretch to get one.)

 

[keydiver]

No. The X was initially expected/promised to be 10% more expensive than an S, but if you read any of the previous posts, or Elon's Twitter post, it appears to be only $5000 more than an equivalent S. We will find out the REAL price of an X when they start shipping/selling NON-Signature versions.

 

[RegGuheert]

No. The X was initially expected/promised to be 10% more expensive than an S, but if you read any of the previous posts, or Elon's Twitter post, it appears to be only $5000 more than an equivalent S. We will find out the REAL price of an X when they start shipping/selling NON-Signature versions.

O.K. Thanks for the correction!

 

[scottf200]

So the (P)erformance version gets you the larger rear 503 hp motor and 259 hp front ... but the non-performance version still gets you a front *and* rear of 259 hp.

The 3.8 second 0-60 mph is faster than the P85 Model S from just a year ago.

This is just a small piece of the effort put into this vehicle and shows how they are moving forward. Arguably Tesla's made EVs much more aware than to the masses than any other manufacturer. They really should get a lot of credit and not the 3rd grade snide remarks from some here. Yes, it is very expensive but early adopters pay premiums all the time. I did with the Volt back in 2011. Glad they have a Gen II and that they made real battery (etc) improvements every year until that came out.

Image: http://i.imgur.com/avaRznA.png

 

[GRA]

They're definitely going to have to boost the X's range for serious road-tripping with bike/ski/snowboard hitch racks (especially in cold weather), or trailer hauling in hot weather. I'll be interested to see how much more range a regular X90D has compared to the P version, but I think they're going to need at least 100kWh at the earliest opportunity. And as dgpcolorado points out, an X70D is out of the question - a minimum of 75 kWh and maybe 80 kWh would be needed to cross the 200 mile mark.

 

[TonyWilliams]

They're definitely going to have to boost the X's range for serious road-tripping with bike/ski/snowboard hitch racks (especially in cold weather), or trailer hauling in hot weather. I'll be interested to see how much more range a regular X90D has compared to the P version, but I think they're going to need at least 100kWh at the earliest opportunity. And as dgpcolorado points out, an X70D is out of the question - a minimum of 75 kWh and maybe 80 kWh would be needed to cross the 200 mile mark.

I suspect that they will offer a 70kWh version, merely because the comparison of X-P90D to S-P90D is not more than 40 miles.

The S-70D is EPA 250 miles (240 advertised), therefore a X-70D will be around 205-215. Plenty for soccer moms.

 

[edatoakrun]

...The S-70D is EPA 250 miles (240 advertised), therefore a X-70D will be around 205-215. Plenty for soccer moms.

The S-70D is, in fact, EPA rated at "240 miles total range", combining city and highway cycles:

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=36126&id=34918&id=36786

But, unless I'm mistaken, even the highway component is based on low speed (relative to the actual speed on many freeways) driving cycle:

...Highway Fuel Economy Driving Schedule (HWFET) ...makes no stops, averaging 48 mph (77 km/h) with a top speed of 60 mph...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTP-75

More at
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fe_test_schedules.shtml

Like all BEVs, the X's range will be reduced by low temperatures, high speeds, and large ascents.

These factors will be particularly significant in a vehicle as heavy and as large as the X.

for example, even an X-90D (with a brand-new battery pack charged to "100%") will probably not make the ~170 mile trip from Berkeley to Donner Summit on I-80, if carrying a full load, and driven at left lane speeds, on a cold Winter day (no guess as to how much more range will be lost to a ski rack) but a single relatively short DC charge will allow it to make this trip.

If it is built, an X-70 D would requires a much longer period of DC recharging, to make the same trip.

Both hypothetical trips assume "supercharger" stalls are immediately available at optimum locations.

And of course, after a few years of capacity loss, the same trip will be more difficult for either X.

Yes, the X should be a great ~$100k minivan "for Soccer moms".

But maybe only for Ski Moms who have some patience.

 

[scottf200]

Really? Are you that near-sighted? It can't be an evolution to cheaper EVs? We haven't started to see that. Mass production cars require a lot of batteries. You can't build 100s of inexpensive EVs without deep pockets. Nissan, as one example, has deep pockets because it sells a ton of ICE cars ... Tesla does not have that option.

Adding you to my foe list so as not to see your childish jealous drivel anymore.

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)
Elon Musk, Co-Founder & CEO of Tesla Motors August 2, 2006
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me

* Build sports car
* Use that money to build an affordable car
* Use that money to build an even more affordable car
* While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
Don't tell anyone.

 

[GRA]

I think I just saw my first Model X, on the street in front of my place. I was waiting at the intersection to cross (walking), and looked up to see a rear 3/4 to tail view of a dark blue or black CUV with a high tail after it had crossed in front of me, and what appeared to be the Tesla emblem on the rear hatch. After a moment or two, my brain ID'd it as similar to the photos I've seen. If that's what it was, I've got to say it looks a lot less nice than the S. Expected to a certain extent in a CUV, but the rear contours of the hatch reminded me more of the current gen CR-V, which I really dislike. Edit: Checking photos, I'm virtually certain that's what it was. Judging by the lack of images of the X from directly to the rear on any official site, Tesla knows that's its least attractive angle.

 

[evnow]

Expected to a certain extent in a CUV, but the rear contours of the hatch reminded me more of the current gen CR-V...

Ouch ... That's got to hurt.