Will you hold off for rumored 2014 LEAF?

[Yanquetino]

Hell it was all I could do to wait for the 2012 model to get here. None of the dealers here in Utah have any cars for sale yet, so a couple of weeks ago I bought an orphan from Fontana Nissan in CA.

Kudos to you, KJD! Congratulations! You must have the first Leaf here in Utah!

Where are you at? If you're in the SLC area, I understand that the mayor's office has installed some public charging around the city. I'd be curious to know what brand of L2 EVSE is at the downtown Library.

I am near St. George, myself, and am tempted to go looking for an orphan also, but... since we'll now be able to order "by March 2012," I guess I don't have too much longer to wait. I have my solar, and my EVSE... just need my Leaf!

Hey, did you see my letter in the Tribune a couple of weeks ago about our pitiful EV tax incentives here in Utah? You should write one also!

 

[Leafboy]

Nissan South in Morrow has three Nissan Leafs that Georgia Power was unable to acquire due to budget cuts. I told Ben Echols I would pass the information on to the EV Club in case someone was looking for a Leaf they could get right away.

Three Leafs available. Two silver and one gray. If interested, contact Dan Gotch at Nissan South.

Daniel Gotch
Sales Consultant
(770)866-4443
770.968.6936 Internet Sales
770.968.1360 Main
770.968.7905 Fax
[email protected]

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I doubt it.

Smyrna is supposed to start operations at the end of 2012 (making MY13 Leafs). My guess is, again there will be a slow rampup. I even wonder whether they may push the go live a few months and start with MY14.

In anycase, here is my guess.

MY11 : 8,000
MY12 : 10,000
MY 13 : 30,000

That still leaves over 150,000 cars before tax credit sunset will kickin. I think they will make about 50K cars for the domestic market for 3 more years befor the tax credit goes away.

MY 14 : 40,000
MY 15 : 50,000
MY 16 : 60,000

ya, TN online 4 th quarter 2012. but 10,000 for 2012??

i was thinking more like 20-30,000 for 2012 and 100-120,000 for 2013.

we are opening market all over and Nissan is just now starting to address corporate requests. there is a car rental place in Seattle that requested 40 Leafs and got 10.

i guess it really all boils down to what can Nissan provide thru their one plant. i am guessing they will try to push well beyond the what?? 50,000 capacity?

 

[evnow]

ya, TN online 4 th quarter 2012. but 10,000 for 2012??

i was thinking more like 20-30,000 for 2012 and 100-120,000 for 2013.

Yes - I don't think MY12 (not calendar 2012) will be much different from MY11. I don't see them cranking out Leafs.

Once Smyrna comes online (atleast after a few months of rampup) - Leaf production will be mainly demand constrained. That is why I think they will be making about 4K a month and slowly increasing every year - though, they may produce more for the export market.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

ya, TN online 4 th quarter 2012. but 10,000 for 2012??

i was thinking more like 20-30,000 for 2012 and 100-120,000 for 2013.

Yes - I don't think MY12 (not calendar 2012) will be much different from MY11. I don't see them cranking out Leafs.

Once Smyrna comes online (atleast after a few months of rampup) - Leaf production will be mainly demand constrained. That is why I think they will be making about 4K a month and slowly increasing every year - though, they may produce more for the export market.

i understand why you think what you think but we now have many more areas open to purchase releasing more pent up demand and i have to think that Japan will not (i hope) have another disaster impact their production #s either.

have to think we will nearly double the sales for 2012. but then again, my assumption does put the TN plant at full strength right out of the gate which is probably a mistake but not unusual for Japanese plants.

so maybe 2013 might be less like in the 50-75,000 range

 

[Yodrak]

Random thought: there are reasons why some states were in Tier 1 and others were in Tier 4, and it seems to me that one of those reasons deals with demand - or lack thereof. Whatever demand is pent up in the areas not yet open to purchase, it probably is not significant.

i understand why you think what you think but we now have many more areas open to purchase releasing more pent up demand

 

[Yanquetino]

Here's a bit of off-the-cuff conjecture.

It wouldn't surprise me if Nissan alters its delivery timeline when the last orders open up "by March 2012." They might be planning on filling those orders with 2013 Leafs built in Snyrna, TN, even though it will mean increasing the waiting period from four to six, eight, maybe even ten months.

Why? Well... I could imagine that they'd want to line up firm orders to better gauge the plant's initial production. It might also help boost the profit margin slightly, since it will likely be cheaper to transport those cars domestically than ship them from Japan. Besides, the demand worldwide just keeps growing, so it is not as if it would cause a drop in the number of customers for the Japanese Leafs. And Nissan might want to tout "made in America" sooner rather than later to deflect some of the criticisms that have been surfacing lately about government loans going to foreign companies.

Would those possible advantages outweigh the disadvantage of further trying the patience of the reservation holders in the "forgotten 22" states? As long as they could finally place their orders, would they be willing to wait a few months longer than in the past to take delivery from the U.S. plant? I would. But maybe that's just me... :?:

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Random thought: there are reasons why some states were in Tier 1 and others were in Tier 4, and it seems to me that one of those reasons deals with demand - or lack thereof. Whatever demand is pent up in the areas not yet open to purchase, it probably is not significant.

i understand why you think what you think but we now have many more areas open to purchase releasing more pent up demand

the plummeting price of gas may allow your statement to be correct. studies show that every 10 cent drop in gas increases large vehicle purchases by as much as 2%. the sad fact is that it doesnt matter what the price of gas is, only that the price went down.

i paid $3.539 on nov 30th and $3.309 yesterday. that probably equates to another 4,000 large vehicle purchases and probably a 10-15% decline in EV interest.

man! we are pathetic

 

[mitch672]

add to that that as new areas open, the Nissan dealers are totally unwilling to consider any discount from MSRP, even when sent a direct link to a California dealer who will give forum members $2,000 off list price. Even adding in shipping, there is still at least $750 in savings. I am rethinking my need for a Leaf at all, as I may be changing jobs and have to drive a lot further to get to the new job.

 

[Yodrak]

I've paid an average of $3.00 even since September 21, $2.925 for the past month. Even though electricity in my area is also well below the country average, there isn't much room for fuel saving at these gas prices.

I'm still interested in a Leaf because my employer has installed 9 chargers, presently going unused, in the headquarters parking lot, so I expect to be able to drive at no cost for fuel if Nissan ever opens up sales in my area.

i paid $3.539 on nov 30th and $3.309 yesterday. that probably equates to another 4,000 large vehicle purchases and probably a 10-15% decline in EV interest.

 

[abasile]

I am rethinking my need for a Leaf at all, as I may be changing jobs and have to drive a lot further to get to the new job.

Then what you really "need" is a 240 mile range Tesla Roadster! :lol: Seriously, I hope it somehow works out for you to become a LEAF owner. Perhaps the new job could allow you to charge? (I know it's probably quite hard to say.)

 

[evnow]

Would those possible advantages outweigh the disadvantage of further trying the patience of the reservation holders in the "forgotten 22" states? As long as they could finally place their orders, would they be willing to wait a few months longer than in the past to take delivery from the U.S. plant? I would. But maybe that's just me... :?:

I don't think the forgotten 22 states will tell Nissan what kind of demand to expect once Smyrna is online. They will fill out the March '12 orders with MY'12 Leafs.

To really market Leafs, Nissan might have to do unconventional things like opening marketing outlets in malls and have people checkout Leafs. They really need to "sell" the idea of EVs.

Recently Tesla opened a showroom in a mall nearby and they get continuous traffic. Something they wouldn't have got if it was just a dealership some other place.

 

[EricBayArea]

I didn't know where to put this and I didn't want to start a whole new thread, but this showed up in Car and Driver the other day with the title of:

2014 Infiniti Electric Vehicle Spy Photos


This clearly looks like a LEAF and not an Infiniti. Looks like they made the eyes bigger and gave it wheels from a Nissan Maxima.

 

[defiancecp]

Ugh that looks like somebody's bad photoshop.... (I can tell by the pixels... )

 

[TomT]

Same with the store that Coda opened about 6 months ago in Century City in the mall there. This is a high-end destination and they constantly have a lot of traffic through there. I'm there at least once a week for clients and the store is always busy, with the model parked out on the mall in front of it getting a lot of attention.

Recently Tesla opened a showroom in a mall nearby and they get continuous traffic. Something they wouldn't have got if it was just a dealership some other place.

 

[TomT]

Other than appearing as a very bad Photoshop, if true it could be classified as a study in how to make the Leaf much uglier...

I didn't know where to put this and I didn't want to start a whole new thread, but this showed up in Car and Driver the other day with the title of...

 

[EricBayArea]

I agree that it is hideously ugly. I looked at some of the other photos they had (some were enhancements and some were other angles) and it looks like they did a half-ass job of bolting on those headlights... but I don't think it's Photoshopped.

 

[Leafboy]

Looks like someone's Mad Max version of the Leaf! I can't even believe Car and Driver would even put a picture of that in their mag rag.

 

[TomT]

I've got to think that this was either someone's idea of a joke or an owner's mod attempt gone horribly wrong! It also has to be an aerodynamic nightmare!

Looks like someone's Mad Max version of the Leaf! I can't even believe Car and Driver would even put a picture of that in their mag rag.

 

[wsbca]

Regarding the supposed Infiniti photo - it looks not unlike other prototype disguises over the years..

Google "disguised car prototypes".


A few examples:

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/03/pl_motor_prototypes/

http://www.tflcar.com/2009/12/video...-whales-cars-and-now-pedestrians-as-well.html

'We use hard plastic cladding and body camouflage to try and disguise the final shape, so you don't know what it's like,' Dietsch told CAR. 'But we need to continue testing these prototypes and the disguise must not stop the car working normally.