Wholesale value of the 2011 Leaf @Auction March 2018

[caffeinekid]

Thanks for the info! Exactly what I wanted to know. Bad news for owners, but good news for me as a leasee looking to buy used shortly. Seems like 16 grand is where market is heading on a '13 SL. That's crazy!

Not so crazy, actually.

The other factor depressing prices for used LEAFs, is the amazing deals some buyers can get on new LEAFs, and other BEVs.

IIRC, last month, with all the incentives factored in, I could have bought a new 2015 SL for ~$19k net in California.

I believe there are places with higher local incentives, bringing the cost of a new LEAF S, base Ford Focus E or Chevy spark to well under $15,000, for the lucky few.

Agreed. The Leaf for any purpose other than being an EV is nowhere near a $35K car. $20K?...maybe for an SL. So right from the get-go you have a $20K car one way or another. After 2 model years, what would you expect a $20K car to be worth? About $16K retail seems about right, but with the Leaf you have the deficient traction battery that should further reduce its value. Now, we'll have to see what happens with the 2014 models given that Nissan appears to have addressed the defective battery issue of the 2011-2013 models. Frankly, being educated on the vehicle, I personally would have no interest in buying used until the retail value of the car could be achieved by INCLUDING the cost of a traction battery replacement. For a 2011, that means well under $10K. Go ahead and try to find one under that price though. This in a nutshell is why some of us think the (artificially inflated) "market" is even now higher than it should be.

 

[dhanson865]

Thanks for the info! Exactly what I wanted to know. Bad news for owners, but good news for me as a leasee looking to buy used shortly. Seems like 16 grand is where market is heading on a '13 SL. That's crazy!

Not so crazy, actually.

The other factor depressing prices for used LEAFs, is the amazing deals some buyers can get on new LEAFs, and other BEVs.

IIRC, last month, with all the incentives factored in, I could have bought a new 2015 SL for ~$19k net in California.

I believe there are places with higher local incentives, bringing the cost of a new LEAF S, base Ford Focus E or Chevy spark to well under $15,000, for the lucky few.

Agreed. The Leaf for any purpose other than being an EV is nowhere near a $35K car. $20K?...maybe for an SL. So right from the get-go you have a $20K car one way or another. After 2 model years, what would you expect a $20K car to be worth? About $16K retail seems about right, but with the Leaf you have the deficient traction battery that should further reduce its value. Now, we'll have to see what happens with the 2014 models given that Nissan appears to have addressed the defective battery issue of the 2011-2013 models. Frankly, being educated on the vehicle, I personally would have no interest in buying used until the retail value of the car could be achieved by INCLUDING the cost of a traction battery replacement. For a 2011, that means well under $10K. Go ahead and try to find one under that price though. This in a nutshell is why some of us think the (artificially inflated) "market" is even now higher than it should be.

OK, it's not under $10K but it's close

Dealer in Santa Ana has one for $10,500 SL with 38,871 miles
I see 7 cars listed at $10,999 (6 Sls and 1 SV) between 27,554 and 48,854 miles

and all of those are retail ask prices, no telling if you could get them to drop the price any.

 

[desiv]

This in a nutshell is why some of us think the (artificially inflated) "market" is even now higher than it should be.

I agree for new cars, as that market is inflated because of the incentives..

But the used market is the used market. (Unless there are government incentives for buying used?)

It is what people are willing to pay for the cars used.

If people are willing to pay $13k when other people think it's worth $11k, then the market is $13k.

Maybe the people who think it's only worth $11k are missing something. Maybe the people buying the cars are.. Either way, it is what it is..

That's the funny thing about markets..

desiv

 

[caffeinekid]

This in a nutshell is why some of us think the (artificially inflated) "market" is even now higher than it should be.

I agree for new cars, as that market is inflated because of the incentives..

But the used market is the used market. (Unless there are government incentives for buying used?)

It is what people are willing to pay for the cars used.

If people are willing to pay $13k when other people think it's worth $11k, then the market is $13k.

Maybe the people who think it's only worth $11k are missing something. Maybe the people buying the cars are.. Either way, it is what it is..

That's the funny thing about markets..

desiv

OK. Going with that- So where are the no-reserve auctions? Reserve = artificial floor. If a manufacturer can set a minimum bid, then how is that too NOT inflating values? BTW, I will take the bait and admit that I don't believe in the existence of "free markets" anymore than I believe in purple unicorns. This being the case, I would bet good money that people would be willing to pay less than the current inflated wholesale plus dealer markup given the opportunity.

 

[desiv]

This being the case, I would bet good money that people would be willing to pay less than the current inflated wholesale plus dealer markup given the opportunity.

Hmm
Not sure I can think of a situation where people would just be "willing to pay more"...
I think people are always "willing" to pay less.. ;-)

The lack of a reserve is probably more about the dealers not sure whether the market is just soft for now (seasonal, etc) or really lower..
Dealers can afford to wait some months to find that out.

desiv

 

[Roadburner440]

I wouldn't have bought my 2012 without the $5000 off that is for sure. I mean I don't think it is only worth $11,838.40, but I wasn't going to give them $16,838.40 for it either. Really hard to judge I suppose as I think this is new territory for all of us. At $12k is a steal in my opinion. There was one around here at Charles Barker Nissan that sold in the $9k range and was a 2011. It keeps popping up for sale every few months, and the last time it did a few weeks ago looked at the carfax and see it had 7 or 8 owners. There is a 2013 SL that is used at Pomoco Nissan and they want $23,000 for it for the last year. Needless to say I think it will be there for a long long time to come.

 

[hill]

This in a nutshell is why some of us think the (artificially inflated) "market" is even now higher than it should be.

I agree for new cars, as that market is inflated because of the incentives..

But the used market is the used market. (Unless there are government incentives for buying used?) ........snip.......

yes there are, in some states .... I know CO being one of them.
.

 

[edatoakrun]

The problem with looking at on-line listing prices of any model car, is that the low prices generally reflect the fact that you are looking at a selection of total dogs.

New cars prices reflect ~the same vehicles, but used car prices are highly variable with condition.

There are enough used LEAF transactions completed now (another advantage of buying a mass-market BEV) so that you can find pretty good pricing data from the usual sources.

KBB shows the Current SF Bay area private party price for a 2011 SL, ~50k miles with DC port at $10.4k to $12.7k Depending on condition.

Middle-range trade-in value for the same LEAF $9.4k to $11.2k, depending on condition.

http://www.kbb.com/nissan/leaf/2011-nissan-leaf/sl-hatchback-4d/?condition=excellent&vehicleid=352716&intent=trade-in-sell&mileage=50500&options=5821567%7ctrue&pricetype=trade-in&persistedcondition=excellent" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

KBB prices may be a few percent high, IMO, but that may depend on your own condition categorization, for any individual car.

I used to consider NADA prices better than KBB, and the higher spreads between trade-in and retail, ~$2,400 rather than only ~$1,500 (mid-range, excellent condition) from KBB above, might be more realistic.

But NADA's full retail price for the same clean car is ~12,100, is about the same, if you add in KBB's valuation of the DC port option, which NADA does not allow.

http://www.nadaguides.com/Cars/2011/Nissan/Leaf-Electric/Hatchback-5D-SL/Values" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The part of the KBB price estimates that I have the hardest time believing (especially in the SF bay area, which already has rudimentary DC charging infrastructure available) is that missing the DC port only subtracts ~$600 from the resale price.

 

[evnow]

Even though Leaf has served us well all these years - I still find it difficult to actually buy one at any price - knowing better cars are less than 2 years away. I'm sure I'm not alone. This naturally depresses the used car price.

 

[TomT]

I concur. I would never buy one for the foreseeable future..

Even though Leaf has served us well all these years - I still find it difficult to actually buy one at any price - knowing better cars are less than 2 years away. I'm sure I'm not alone. This naturally depresses the used car price.

 

[Reddy]

I concur. I would never buy one for the foreseeable future..

Even though Leaf has served us well all these years - I still find it difficult to actually buy one at any price - knowing better cars are less than 2 years away. I'm sure I'm not alone. This naturally depresses the used car price.

It's tough agreeing with you guys, but you are exactly right. I don't recommend buying to anyone any more, just leasing. If I hadn't bought, I would be leasing a new 2015, with a faster L2 and heat pump. Although, I might have been enticed into buying a used 2011 for $8-10K, but only if I was "new" to the EV market, and only because my round trip in-town driving needs are typically less than 20 mi. Still, these are great deals for folks who are looking for a 2nd grocery cart.

 

[subleaf]

I just bought a 2012 SL with less than 2,400 miles for $16,000 from CarMax. It came off a 24 month lease and was registered in North Carolina. I have no idea how it was treated/driven, but it has 12 capacity bars and looks like new, inside and out. It is still covered by the "new" battery capacity warranty (per Nissan USA), even though it has never had the required annual battery checks. I'm taking it in soon for it's first one.

I did a ton of research before making this purchase. I've had hybrids, but never a total electric vehicle. I feel pretty comfortable that I'm aware of the problems, both real and potential, I will or may have with it. This forum and the members who contribute to it have my heartfelt gratitude for all the great knowledge and help provided!

 

[evnow]

To compare to the ICE world - what would it do to Prius used prices if it is known that Toyota will have a Prius with double the mpg in 2 years ?

 

[TimLee]

... It is still covered by the "new" battery capacity warranty (per Nissan USA), even though it has never had the required annual battery checks. I'm taking it in soon for it's first one.
...

That is questionable.
Did you get it in writing from Nissan :?:

 

[subleaf]

... It is still covered by the "new" battery capacity warranty (per Nissan USA), even though it has never had the required annual battery checks. I'm taking it in soon for it's first one.
...

That is questionable.
Did you get it in writing from Nissan :?:

No. I'm just taking that to mean the previous owner didn't opt out of the lawsuit. Like many of us, I have no idea how Nissan would respond to a major battery issue with my Leaf.

 

[OrientExpress]

The Jan '15 wholesale auction actuals for a 2011 LEAF SL show very little movement from the Dec '14 numbers, and continue on a normal depreciation curve. January is always a relatively slow month for used car sales, with dealers having lower than average inventories in January because of inventory tax considerations.

The price drop of gas has had absolutely no impact on the price of used EVs, and January sales of new EVs are still very robust. With that said, because a 2011 LEAF is still a 4 year old car, and its depreciation curve from its net MSRP when new has followed industry averages, a high mileage (below-average) 2011 can now be had for around $10-$11K.

 

[mwalsh]

No. I'm just taking that to mean the previous owner didn't opt out of the lawsuit. Like many of us, I have no idea how Nissan would respond to a major battery issue with my Leaf.

If recent history is our guide, they will probably tell you that you are SOL:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=18949" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Turnover]

This is a list of several lease returns that will be auctioned off 3/26/15 in Troutdale, OR:

Troutdale, OR (A1)
Thu, Mar 26 2012 Nissan Leaf 4D Hatchback SL
AT AC RW WA 5
$11,049 Black
4DHB 16,695
Actual Miles 0060
3965







Troutdale, OR (A1)
Thu, Mar 26 2012 Nissan Leaf 4D Hatchback SL
AT AC RW WA 5
$10,913 Silver
4DHB 21,264
Actual Miles 0066
5863







Troutdale, OR (A1)
Thu, Mar 26 2012 Nissan Leaf 4D Hatchback SV
AT AC RW WA 5
$10,365 Red
4DHB 24,036
Actual Miles 0026
5013







Troutdale, OR (A1)
Thu, Mar 26 2012 Nissan Leaf 4D Hatchback SV
AT AC RW WA 5
$9,719 Silver
4DHB 30,027
Actual Miles 0038
5389







Troutdale, OR (A1)
Thu, Mar 26 2012 Nissan Leaf 4D Hatchback SV
AT AC RW WA 5
$9,829 Silver
4DHB 29,011
Actual Miles 0068
8236







Troutdale, OR (A1)
Thu, Mar 26 2012 Nissan Leaf 4D Hatchback SV
AT AC RW WA 4
$12,210 Silver
4DHB 6,905
Actual Miles 0031
9300







Troutdale, OR (A1)
Thu, Mar 26 2011 Nissan Leaf 4D Hatchback SL
AT AC RW WA 5
Black
4DHB 23,319
Actual Miles 0046
5481

 

[tractioninc]

The info in this thread has been really interesting, so thanks for keeping it updated. Do you have any plans to track wholesale values of 2012 and 2013 models now that so many are now coming off lease? Looking at market prices here in Atlanta, it seems that '11s are a much less compelling value than the '12s and '13s which are priced only slightly higher.

 

[OrientExpress]

I'm thinking that I might start a 2013 auction wholesale thread. 2011/12 cars are about the same value at this time.