minispeed said:
To get this post back on topic I'll say it'll be worth $3000 if the battery is in good shape.
I've found that $3000 is the level off price of most cars that earn a reputation of being reliable...
Not an entirely unreasonable rule of thumb...
for cars that need gas to run... and also have the higher maintenance and repair costs of ICEVs.
Certainly, the relatively low gas prices have reduced used BEV prices today, and will continue do the same if low gas prices persist in the future.
I'd say the rule of thumb for BEVs prices will be the price of a comparable ICEV, plus ~2 years of expected average operating costs savings, which in turn depends largely on future gas prices.
For example, if we have ~$5 per gallon gas prices in 2019, resulting ~$1,000 per year BEV advantage in operating costs, $3,000 = 2 x $1,000 = $5,000 retail price for a 2011 LEAF with ~16 to 18 kWh capacity.
$2 a gallon gas? then the prices of the BEV and the ICEV will be comparable.
If car buyers acted rationally, the BEV price premium would be larger, and required payback period would be longer.
But if car buyers were rational, there would never be so many money-pit ICEVs on the road in the first place.
Used car buyers tend to be far more sensitive to operating costs, especially for low-priced vehicles where the annual operating costs can exceed the purchase price.
Which is why a ten year old civic may cost more than ten year old Jaguar that costs several times as much when new.
And why, a ten year old 2012 LEAF,
may sell for more than a ten year old 2012 Tesla S, in another ~seven years.
