Western USA drought worst in modern era

[WetEV]

wattsupwiththat

Curve comparing isn't prediction.

I'd suggest as a better source:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Despite this greater model consensus, there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become. This uncertainty is amplified by the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring.

Or this:

http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-tests-forecasters-1.14972" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

El Niño often emerges during the Northern Hemisphere summer and peaks around December; forecast models can do a reasonable job of predicting its eventual strength by July, when the changes in ocean circulation that give rise to the weather pattern have become pronounced.

 

[RegGuheert]

wattsupwiththat

Yet another ad hominem attack from WetEV. I suppose you may never understand that ad hominem attacks weaken your points rather than strengthen them.

Like it or not, Bob Tisdale is one of the best sources for El Nino analysis that you will find anywhere. Had you read his excellent piece, you would have found that he already has made the points which you provided:

A couple of things to keep in mind: First, there are subtle differences between El Niño events. It’s still very early in the evolution this year to make predictions of how strong the 2014/15 El Niño will eventually become.

Second, before you look at global surface temperature data and conclude that the 1982/83 El Niño had a very small effect on global surface temperatures, compared to the 1997/98 El Niño, keep in mind that the 1982/83 El Niño was counteracted by the eruption of El Chichon that year and there was no colossal explosive volcano in 1997 to offset the 1997/98 El Nino.

 

[WetEV]

ad hominem attack

Suggesting sources written by actual experts with actual PHD degrees in actual relevant fields isn't an example of an ad hominem attack.

An ad hominem (Latin for "to the man" or "to the person"[1]), short for argumentum ad hominem, is a general category of fallacies in which a claim or argument is rejected on the basis of some irrelevant fact about the author of or the person presenting the claim or argument.

I'd say education is relevant. Do you disagree?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

^ Not to be confused with the "Add homonym attack"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/magazine/2013/09/27/b5434fd2-8511-11e3-bbe5-6a2a3141e3a9_story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“Crumble bread sticks into a mixing bowl. Cover with warm water. Let soak two to three minutes or until soft. Drain. Stir in prostitute, provolone, pine nuts. … ”

 

[edatoakrun]

Back on-topic, full update is at the link.

Lake Shasta's level is already dropping, and with virtually no snowpack left in the Northern Sacramento river watershed, the reservoir might be at near-record low levels before the rains return next fall.

California Drought Update-May 2014

The water season (July 1-June 30) has, for all practical purposes, come to an end for California. Although May and June may see some additional precipitation (especially in the far north) it is unlikely that anything will happen to improve the prospect of a catastrophic drought this year for the state. Here is a monthly update.

The final snow survey in the Sierra Nevada was taken on May 1st and the statewide snowpack was just 18% of average for the date. This compares to 32% as of April 1st. The situation in the northern section of the survey area was just 7% of normal. This is the 2nd lowest snowpack figure for May 1st (May 1, 1977 being the lowest on record).

Snow-water content of the Sierra snow pack for each region compared to average (blue shaded area), maximum on record (purple line), lowest on record (red line) and this year (deep blue line)...

Although April rainfall was close to normal for most of the state, the snow that fell in the Sierra melted quickly following each storm due to the warm April sunshine. The California Department of water resources has set this year’s water allocation at 5% of requested amounts (requested by agricultural and other public water agencies). This is the smallest such allocation in the 54-year history of the State Water Project operated by the Department of Water Resources.

...The state’s reservoirs are at critically low levels for this time of the year.

State reservoir capacities as of May 1st. Overall, the total capacity of all the water in all the reservoirs is currently about 50% of normal for this time of year...

So far as actual drought conditions and precipitation amounts as of May 1st, the latest drought monitor report (below) shows that there has been further deterioration in conditions since the report that was issued on April 1st.

...The bottom line is that the rainy season is over and the next six months are going to be a severe test of the state’s ability to manage its meager water resources. We will probably see (and already are) clashes between agricultural concerns and urban consumers. The specter of an horrific fire season also looms over all this. It has been 37 years since a drought of this severity has affected the state and since the drought of 1975-1977 the population of California has almost doubled (from about 20 million to 38 million). The consumption of water resources by the agricultural industry has also dramatically increased. The only mitigating affect of these changes is that per capita water consumption has decreased thanks to a number of conservation innovations and regulations.

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=270" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[RegGuheert]

It has been 37 years since a drought of this severity has affected the state and since the drought of 1975-1977 the population of California has almost doubled (from about 20 million to 38 million). The consumption of water resources by the agricultural industry has also dramatically increased.

These seem to be the key points in the article. Having a drought almost as severe as the 1975-1977 drought with double the population will likely make this one much harder to manage.

 

[smkettner]

I wonder if the water management agency should have curtailed the allocation more last two years.
Might have to start thinking 3 to 5 years ahead instead of 18 months.

The snow pack and water reserves seem to fluctuate wildly from year to year. They can use the word average but there is no consistant normal.

 

[WetEV]

El Nino odds now estimated as exceeding 65% for summer, and 78% by late fall.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

Wichita Falls, TX is another in a line of cities feeding their treated waste water back into the drinking water supply.

Mayor Glenn Barham says three years of extreme drought have changed life for 104,000 people living in Wichita Falls, which is about 115 miles northwest of Fort Worth...water supplies are still expected to run out in two years, which is why the city has built a 13-mile pipeline that connects its wastewater plant to the plant where water is purified for drinking.

http://keranews.org/post/wichita-falls-sees-wastewater-recycling-solution-drinking-water-shortage

In the greater San Antonio area, the Edwards Aquifer Authority declared stage 3 water restrictions just before spring arrived. In this area we don't have defined requirements for stage 4. Many counties in west Texas are in stage 5.

 

[AndyH]

Yale Climate Forum - not "if" for El Nino but "how large"...

...official announcements from the weather service...have been very conservative on this front... There are things going on in the tropical Pacific ocean right now that we haven't seen since the 1997-98 El Nino Event...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9vQlsuhM8Q[/youtube]

 

[AndyH]

NWS 9 May Update

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmnwk3hpT6Q[/youtube]

 

[WetEV]

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=83653" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Data from ocean-observing satellites and other ocean sensors indicate that El Niño conditions appear to be developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Conditions in May 2014 bear some similarities to those of May 1997, a year that brought one of the most potent El Niño events of the 20th century.

Of course, far too early to say how strong, or even if an El Niño will develop this year.

 

[AndyH]

Of course, far too early to say how strong, or even if an El Niño will develop this year.

Sorry, no. Real climate scientists are already on the record making it clear: It's not "if" it's "how strong".

 

[DaveEV]

Of course, far too early to say how strong, or even if an El Niño will develop this year.

Sorry, no. Real climate scientists are already on the record making it clear: It's not "if" it's "how strong".

No, the "real climate scientists" estimate a 65% chance of El Nino occurring.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Is there some list that's kept somewhere of who all the climate scientists are and the predictions they made at various points in time?

One trick I've heard that gets played in the financial industry is fund managers assembling different portfolios such that one or the other turns out to be a winner, then it is held up as a sales tool for that manager or institution. If you assemble a large collection of roulette players, some bet on red and others on black, then select the group that chose the correct outcome after the fact, that doesn't mean they were the experts, nor will you have a better chance of winning on subsequent spins by betting with them.

 

[Stoaty]

No, the "real climate scientists" estimate a 65% chance of El Nino occurring.

Also, from the same link:

"On the other hand, there is a roughly 20% chance that the El Niño could fizzle. This happened in 2012 when an El Nino Watch was issued—chances became as high as 75%, but El Niño never formed. Importantly, we are still within the “spring barrier,” a time of year when ENSO conditions often are in transition, making it difficult to forecast."

 

[WetEV]

Is there some list that's kept somewhere of who all the climate scientists are and the predictions they made at various points in time?

For El Nino, the only forecasts I would trust come from the specialists in El Nino, such as:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And a few others.


I might note the opinion of, but not trust: Non-specialist in El Nino, but still climate scientist. While Andy didn't give a source, I am aware of several in this category that have made comments to the press over the past week.


I completely ignore non-scientists bloggers with degrees in physical massage therapy and similar. I'm fairly sure they know less than I do, and I don't know that much. They, on the other hand, are sure they know more than the specialists.

 

[Stoaty]

I completely ignore non-scientists bloggers with degrees in physical massage therapy and similar. I'm fairly sure they know less than I do, and I don't know that much. They, on the other hand, are sure they know more than the specialists.

Yes, it's called the Dunning-Kruger Effect:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Current example: Marco Rubio

 

[MikeinDenver]

I completely ignore non-scientists bloggers with degrees in physical massage therapy and similar. I'm fairly sure they know less than I do, and I don't know that much. They, on the other hand, are sure they know more than the specialists.

Yes, it's called the Dunning-Kruger Effect:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Current example: Marco Rubio

Haha :lol:

 

[AndyH]

Of course, far too early to say how strong, or even if an El Niño will develop this year.

Sorry, no. Real climate scientists are already on the record making it clear: It's not "if" it's "how strong".

No, the "real climate scientists" estimate a 65% chance of El Nino occurring.

While Andy didn't give a source...

Actually, I did give a source on page 17:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=366056#p366056

Dr. Kevin Trenberth from the National Center on Atmospheric Research - a specialist in global energy and water cycles. He's a real climate scientist that is in the center of El Nino research and modeling.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/trenbert/

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9vQlsuhM8Q[/youtube]

As a former analyst that's been involved in reporting at various levels, I understand how messages tend to become more conservative and somewhat watered-down as they move up the food chain. When I want to know what's happening 'on the ground in theater' I look for the lower-level message before the committee has consulted with their liability lawyers.