Western USA drought worst in modern era

[mwalsh]

Looks like it may be legal. Anyone know for sure?

Completey legal to set up a rain barrel system without a permit. Permits may still be required for a cistern-based system (and possibly subject to quantity limits). Systems need to be setup so any overflow discharges safely; be resistant to mosquito breeding; and must be installed with regard for child safety. Barrels must be marked as non-potable water, and the water may not be used for indoor purposes.

 

[AndyH]

http://scienceblogs.com/significant...-about-california-drought-and-climate-change/

In the last few months, as the severe California drought has garnered attention among scientists, policymakers, and media, there has been a growing debate about the links between the drought and climate change. The debate has been marked by considerable controversy, confusion, and opaqueness.

The confusion stems from the failure of some scientists, bloggers, reporters, and others to distinguish among three separate questions. All three questions are scientifically interesting. But the three are different in their nuance, their importance to policy, and their interest to politicians and water managers. Here are the three different questions:

Is the California drought caused by climate change?
Is the California drought, no matter the cause, influenced or affected by climate changes already occurring?
How will climate changes affect future drought risks in California?

These questions are not the same thing.

 

[edatoakrun]

Updates after ~2 weeks of ~normal rain, see the links below.

CA snowpack is now up to 31% of normal.

MT Shasta Skipark never re-opened this season, and with a heat wave with ~80 F temps forecast for the North Valley next week...better luck next year.

See their webcam of rain today at ~6,000 ft elevation.

Well, ~10 days of ~normal North California winter weather, but the outlook is fairly dry for the next ~10 days.

Want to see the drought in images from NASA?

The first was captured on Feb. 15, 2013, when the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains (which run from upper middle to lower right) was 72 percent of normal for the date. That was low and worrisome.

On that date, a little less than 50 percent of California overall was suffering from some degree of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. None of the state was in extreme or exceptional drought, the highest two categories.

Fed in large measure by irrigation water, the vast Central Valley just to the west of the mountains — one of the prime agricultural regions of the nation — was still relatively green.

Flash forward a year to this past weekend — Feb. 16. That’s the second image in the animation. The snowpack in the Sierra is visibly diminished. As of today, measurements show that it stands at just 26 percent of normal. This is despite recent storms. (If you’d like to check on current and past California snowpack conditions, go here.)

And as of Feb. 11 of the current year, the Drought Monitor found 95 percent of California to be drought, with 70 percent the state categorized as in extreme or exceptional drought.

As a result, vegetation throughout the state is suffering, including in the Central Valley. NASA scientists have used data from the MODIS instrument on the Terra and Aqua satellites to map where greening from plant growth is below normal for this time of year...

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2014/02/17/california-drought-bad-to-worse-in-satellite-images/#.UwJ-Jnnbg5w" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Current sierra Snowpack percentages are here:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You can see the lower-altitude North region is farther below normal than the rest of the State.

Take a look At Mt Shasta Ski park's webcams showing a lot of dirt from ~5,500 to ~7,000 ft.

http://skipark.com/the-mountain/cams" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

MSSP states it historically recieves ''275 inches of annual snowfall".

Other than a few days of operation in late December (on mostly artificial snow) it never opened this season, and is unlikely to re-open until (at least) next December.

If you read "The End of Snow" in the NYT earlier this month, you know how dismal the future looks for California's downhill ski industry, and Shasta, being the lowest altitude resort, may be the first one to close permanently.

 

[mwalsh]

Hey kids. Thought you might like to see my rain barrel, now that I've built my first flush diverter and plumbed it all in. The only thing I may still do is build some kind of support structure for the first flush, so that when it's full of water the dead weight doesn't hang on the flange screwed into the barrel.

Oh, and in the rain we had a week or so ago, it took under 3 hours to fill to overflowing!

 

[DaveEV]

Oh, and in the rain we had a week or so ago, it took under 3 hours to fill to overflowing!

Nice setup! I do think you found one of the issues with rain barrels - you always want more water storage for when it does rain!

I've thought about installing my own, but have decided that it's probably most cost effective and easier to simply design my landscape to minimize runoff and encourage water to soak in to the landscape instead of run off (think rain garden).

 

[mwalsh]

^ You're right. And I may do a second setup on another downspout.

We already have a low water garden, with no lawn and plantings that, while not "native", mimic a woodland environment - birch and evergreen trees, ferns, daisies, and day lilies.

 

[edatoakrun]

The latest pathetic effort to delay the inevitable extinction, moving Salmon fry in ICEVs as their streams are dewatered to meet our demands.

The current low water levels on the Sacramento are not primarily due to drought, but caused by our water management policies, limiting outflows to retain the limited supplies behind Shasta Dam for later delivery, and for the use of Central and Southern California interests.

...The first of three tanker trucks carrying Chinook salmon is loaded and ready this morning to head toward the Bay Area from the Coleman National Fish Hatchery in Anderson.

Once the other two are loaded, the trucks will carry some 420,000 salmon.

The fall-run salmon usually swim the Sacramento River on their trek from Anderson to the Pacific Ocean, but this year the drought has forced wildlife officials to give the fish a ride.

With low water levels in the Sacramento River due to the drought, wildlife officials were worried the salmon would be easy pickings for predators along the way.

The fish will be released in the Sacramento River at Rio Vista. Tuesday’s load of salmon was the kickoff of a two-month operation to transport more than 30 million salmon from the hatchery to the downstream location...

http://www.redding.com/news/2014/mar/25/young-salmon-loaded-trucks-trip-anderson-bay-area/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[RegGuheert]

Perhaps a glimmer of hope: There is a Kelvin wave moving east in the tropical pacific right now:

NOAA is predicting a 50% chance of El Nino developing by summer or fall this year.

Does El Nino typically bring rain to the southwest?

 

[WetEV]

Does El Nino typically bring rain to the southwest?

To an extent, yes:

 

[smkettner]

50% chance is not much of a prediction.
Best I know El Nino tends to enhance the rainfall but still it needs to rain. So it can still be a 50% prediction even if we get El Nino.

 

[Weatherman]

Does El Nino typically bring rain to the southwest?

Not always, but most of the time it does. The weather becomes very active during the winter months all the way from California, across the southern U.S. to Florida. The only wrinkle, this time, is the anomalously warm sea surface temps in the northeast Pacific. This may decrease the temperature gradient enough to slow storms down a bit.

1983 (an El Nino year) is well known as one of the wettest in recent history for California. 1998 (an El Nino year) is well known for lots of severe storms and tornadoes in Florida (especially remarkable since they occurred during what is normally Florida's dry season).

It should be interesting to see how global average temperatures respond to a large El Nino. Might bring a rather abrupt end to the recent pause, or it may do nothing but spike things up for a year before returning back to the recent average.

 

[WetEV]

There is a Kelvin wave moving east in the tropical pacific right now

Oh, and maybe not. Monitoring system maintenance has been outsourced. Data isn't as reliable anymore.

to save a few million dollars, NOAA has left the world partially blind to a phenomenon that can cause tens of billions of dollars in damage.

http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-monitoring-system-in-failure-mode-1.14582" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[WetEV]

50% chance is not much of a prediction.
Best I know El Nino tends to enhance the rainfall but still it needs to rain. So it can still be a 50% prediction even if we get El Nino.

All forecasts are fallible(!). In the Southwest, not all El Ninos bring wet winters, and in the Northwest, not all El Ninos bring dry winters. The most appropriate way to use these forecasts is to "hedge one's bets" in the indicated direction. In the Southwest, typically the likelihood of a wet winter is increased from 50 percent (a coin toss) to about 65-75 percent likely.

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/ensofaq.html#14" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[RegGuheert]

50% chance is not much of a prediction.

Perhaps. But since El Ninos begin with an equatorial Kelvin wave, without it there will be no El Nino. I suppose the low forecast percentage indicates that not all Kelvin waves result in an El Nino.

So it sounds like El Nino may or may not bring wet weather to the southwest. Here's hoping it does.

Since we are on the topic, I highly recommend these videos from Duke University explaining details of how El Ninos work:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjlIeQFxdlE[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbeWmP0FQOg[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvtTARitSQo[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgWVxk4kdLo[/youtube]

 

[edatoakrun]

Those interested in El Nino potential might want to follow the recent post and comments following on the California Weather Blog:

Modest late-season rain headed for California; powerful El Nino event may be brewing in the Pacific

Posted on March 23, 2014

Weather West Mod • 6 hours ago

This is pretty incredible. Special update late this weekend/early next week. I'm almost suspicious of the data quality, given how extreme these values are, but if these are accurate then the implications for an extremely strong El Nino event are major. This Kelvin wave is now literally of the charts.

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/1282#disqus_thread" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

BTW, we had a tornado in North CA yesterday...

EF-1 tornado touched down several times in Glenn County

http://www.krcrtv.com/news/local/ef1-tornado-touched-down-several-times-in-glenn-county/25189206" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[smkettner]

Can't be too awful bad if we are keeping with our agreement to send this water to MX.

http://news.yahoo.com/colorado-river-begins-flooding-mexican-delta-061452323.html

I think this is good for the environment so I am glad this program was not stopped.

 

[edatoakrun]

It was nice to see snow low on the hills around the valley today, for the first time since December.

But dry and warm weather (close to 80F) will be back by this weekend.

And California's snowpack, which usually reaches it's maximum this time of year, is still only ~ a third of normal.

Provided by the California Cooperative Snow Surveys


Data For: 02-Apr-2014


California Snow Region Map

Change Date : Calendar Icon





Northern Sierra / Trinity

Central Sierra

Southern Sierra


% Apr 1 Avg. / % Normal for this Date



25%/25%


39%/39%


32%/32%


NORTH

Data For: 02-Apr-2014

Number of Stations Reporting 27
Average snow water equivalent 7.2"
Percent of April 1 Average 25%
Percent of normal for this date 25%




CENTRAL

Data For: 02-Apr-2014

Number of Stations Reporting 42
Average snow water equivalent 11.7"
Percent of April 1 Average 39%
Percent of normal for this date 39%




SOUTH

Data For: 02-Apr-2014

Number of Stations Reporting 29
Average snow water equivalent 8.6"
Percent of April 1 Average 32%
Percent of normal for this date 32%




STATEWIDE SUMMARY

Data For: 02-Apr-2014

Number of Stations Reporting 98
Average snow water equivalent 9.5"
Percent of April 1 Average 33%
Percent of normal for this date 33%

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Nubo]

It was nice to see snow low on the hills around the valley today, for the first time since December.

But dry and warm weather (close to 80F) will be back by this weekend.

And California's snowpack, which usually reaches it's maximum this time of year, is still only ~ a third of normal.

Californians place too much emphasis on weather "norms", imho. I recall one of my early trips to So. Cal., and a friend and I decided to go golfing. We got paired with a couple of young women. When they learned I was a visitor from the midwest, they immediately and repeatedly apologized about the weather.

There wasn't a cloud in the sky; the gentlest of breezes, and the temperature was about 75F. I finally had to ask why they were apologizing for the weather in the Garden of Eden. The response was "Oh, it's normally 80... 75 is too cold to go to the beach". :lol:

While it's obviously been a couple of dry years, I think "normal" is not a very useful concept regarding CA precipitation. "Normal" is the product of very many "abnormal" years.

 

[Weatherman]

California's rainy season is about over with the seven-month-long dry season beginning.

It's almost too bad that next rainy season may be very wet due to the developing El Nino. California's farmers and water managers really need a kick in the seat of the pants to manage their limited resources better. From what I've read, most of the major cities (especially those in Southern California) are doing ok in spite of the dry weather.

 

[RegGuheert]

So far, this season in the tropical pacific is tracking the 1982/83 El Nino very closely: 2014/15 El Niño – Part 3 – Early Evolution – Comparison with 1982/83 & 1997/98 El Niño Events. It's still very early, so we will have to see if it shapes up to be as powerful as that one was.