TSLA corporate outlook

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
Moderators, aren't most of the last ~20 post off-topic?

As to the many comments on the subject of this thread:

Business model of TSLA "free...forever" charge network

garsh said:
... I can't see Tesla wanting to deal with the added overhead of billing & customer service of some kind of pay-per-use option.

="edatoakrun"
Tesla has always understood that it will have to have pay-per-use for charge stations, that "free...forever" charging was a marketing gimmick, and that would only be available for a limited number of buyers.

Where TSLA was delusional, IMO, was in it's contention that electricity would remain cheap, and it could afford to subsidize "free...forever" charging until it sold ~ a million BEVs, both of which you can hear about at ~13 minute into this Video of JB Straubel, Chief Technology Officer, Tesla Motors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnQs1k_0Yys
...
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=19617&start=60
 
GetOffYourGas said:
...It is my opinion that a pay-as-you-go system, at least for the cheaper cars, will lead to the best outcome overall in terms of adoption of EVs in the market. I want to see EVs survive and thrive but on-the-go charging is a real problem and hindrance to widespread adoption today.
Perhaps pay-as-you-go will work. My guess, however, is that it will be something closer to a limited subscription model to avoid the hassles of "pay-at-the-pump". One advantage of the current system is the lack of hassle, which in turn leads to the idea that EVs can be as practical as the ICEVs already so familiar.

Prior to the paradigm shift in EV utility brought about by Tesla's introduction of Supercharging-capable cars and the Supercharger network, it was hard to see EVs as anything but local or regional cars: useful to be sure, but still fundamentally limited. Now all that has changed. But there is still a long way to go in persuading car drivers that a BEV can be a reasonable substitute for an ICEV and the easy-to-use (and inexpensive-to-use) Supercharger network figures to be crucial to achieve that goal.

I must say that I find the current plethora of pay-for-use charge station networks difficult to navigate and a nuisance to use (Chargepoint is my favorite because their website and app are superb). The simplicity of Tesla's network is a considerable attraction: navigate to Supercharger Station (the car knows where they all are), plug-in, set nav to next station, charge until nav says you have enough, drive to next station. No worries about cards or phone calls or access being denied, it just works. Perhaps one needs to try it for a thousand miles to truly appreciate it, I don't know.

If Tesla doesn't survive I have my doubts whether other car companies will take the long distance travel ball and run with it; they just don't have enough "vision" to do so. But the proof-of-concept has already been accomplished I think.
 
dgpcolorado said:
GetOffYourGas said:
...It is my opinion that a pay-as-you-go system, at least for the cheaper cars, will lead to the best outcome overall in terms of adoption of EVs in the market. I want to see EVs survive and thrive but on-the-go charging is a real problem and hindrance to widespread adoption today.
Perhaps pay-as-you-go will work. My guess, however, is that it will be something closer to a limited subscription model to avoid the hassles of "pay-at-the-pump". One advantage of the current system is the lack of hassle, which in turn leads to the idea that EVs can be as practical as the ICEVs already so familiar.

Prior to the paradigm shift in EV utility brought about by Tesla's introduction of Supercharging-capable cars and the Supercharger network, it was hard to see EVs as anything but local or regional cars: useful to be sure, but still fundamentally limited. Now all that has changed. But there is still a long way to go in persuading car drivers that a BEV can be a reasonable substitute for an ICEV and the easy-to-use (and inexpensive-to-use) Supercharger network figures to be crucial to achieve that goal.

I must say that I find the current plethora of pay-for-use charge station networks difficult to navigate and a nuisance to use (Chargepoint is my favorite because their website and app are superb). The simplicity of Tesla's network is a considerable attraction: navigate to Supercharger Station (the car knows where they all are), plug-in, set nav to next station, charge until nav says you have enough, drive to next station. No worries about cards or phone calls or access being denied, it just works. Perhaps one needs to try it for a thousand miles to truly appreciate it, I don't know.

If Tesla doesn't survive I have my doubts whether other car companies will take the long distance travel ball and run with it; they just don't have enough "vision" to do so. But the proof-of-concept has already been accomplished I think.

We have strayed from the original topic here, but I'm enjoying your thoughts. Might I recommend we move this to a more appropriate thread, maybe http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=19617
 
In a move likely to pay for a lot of M&A attorneys' second (and third) homes, TSLA announces it is bailing out Solar City:


Elon Musk has massive conflict of interest in Tesla-SolarCity deal, but that won’t stop it


As top shareholder of both companies, Musk recuses himself, but other investors could block deal

Chief Executive Elon Musk offered to buy Chairman Elon Musk’s company on Tuesday, but investor Elon Musk is sitting out the decision-making process.

Such is the convoluted path of a complicated deal, in which Tesla Motors Inc. has offered to buy SolarCity Corp. with Tesla stock in a deal that values SolarCity at roughly $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion, a premium of up to 34.4% from SolarCity’s closing price on Tuesday. Musk is CEO of Tesla TSLA, -0.04% and chairman of SolarCity SCTY, -3.15% , while being the top shareholder for both: He owns a 21.3% stake in Tesla and 22.2% of SolarCity.

Those stakes are part of a complicated web of Musk investments in his own companies, as The Wall Street Journal has reported, which includes Musk taking on debt to buy more shares and using shares already owned as collateral...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-has-massive-conflict-of-interest-in-tesla-solarcity-deal-but-that-wont-stop-it-2016-06-21

TSLA is down ~12%, in after hours trading:

http://quotes.wsj.com/TSLA
 
As a long time, long horizon shareholder, I'm not a fan of this move either.

https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/tesla-makes-offer-to-acquire-solarcity

This is Tesla's view of what/why for the buyout.
 
It could leverage Tesla's brand recognition and bring more of a cool factor to the idea of owning your own gas station. Seems iffy though. Maybe the powerwall goes nowhere without it though.

If it goes badly from here I wonder is Tesla too big to fail? There's over 100k cars on the road right? Some pretty big donors in that group I'll bet. Would be hypocritical to bail out GM and Chrysler but not the company bringing us a carbon neutral future.
 
guess I am confused as to why Musk wants to bring both under the same name. brand recognition?

I thought the original plan of a close mutually beneficial relationship between the two was a better idea but maybe Musk's control over the two companies is not as comprehensive as I think it is?
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
guess I am confused as to why Musk wants to bring both under the same name. brand recognition?

I thought the original plan of a close mutually beneficial relationship between the two was a better idea but maybe Musk's control over the two companies is not as comprehensive as I think it is?

As I understand it, Musk has less direct control over Sol;ar City than he does over Tesla.
There is a lot of synergy between Tesla Energy and Solar City and a tone of easy cross selling.

Tesla is also a really big customer of Solar City, I would expect some cost savings for Tesla if this goes through.

I could also see some restructuring of Solar City's business model if they become a part of Tesla.

In any event, it is an inflection point.; Lots of money will change hands and it is a very good time to sell, or buy on the dip.
Me, I'm holding pat.
 
Tesla Shares Hit Hard After Offer to Buy SolarCity

Investors unhappy with Elon Musk’s plan to merge the electric-car and solar-energy companies he backs


Tesla Motors Inc. ’s plan to acquire SolarCity Corp. got a cold reception from investors and analysts, who raised concerns the takeover could prove a diversion for the electric-car maker and worsen both companies’ strained finances.

Tesla shares plunged by more than 10% on Wednesday, a day after it proposed an all-stock deal valuing the solar-power company at up to $2.8 billion. Both firms are unprofitable, and SolarCity lost more than 60% of its value over the past 12 months...


“The market obviously hates this,” said Shawn Kravetz, a fund manager at Esplanade Capital LLC in Boston who invests in solar companies and until recently owned SolarCity shares. “There are symbiotic relationships here, but cousins should not get married.”...

Tesla, burning cash in a race to meet ambitious production targets for a more affordable Model 3 electric car and build a Nevada battery factory, isn’t expected to be profitable until 2020 at the earliest. A deal could force the Palo Alto, Calif., auto maker to once again seek cash with no guarantees that capital markets will remain hospitable, analysts said....
http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-shares-hit-hard-after-offer-to-buy-solarcity-1466610884
 
A soft market triggered by the brexit boogeyman could be their worst enemy if the capital markets become less adventurous. High flyers tend to lose the most altitude in such scenarios.
 
Via IEVS:
Fatal Accident Of Tesla Model S In AutoPilot Mode Opens NHTSA Investigation
http://insideevs.com/fatal-accident-tesla-model-s-autopilot-opens-nhtsa-investigation/

After hours trading as of 6:46 EDT, down $5.28 (2.49%) to $207.00; it had been up $2.09 (0.99%) on the day.

Also, via ABG:
Investors pushing Elon Musk to loosen control of Tesla board
http://www.autoblog.com/2016/06/30/investor-group-pushing-elon-musk-to-loosen-control-tesla-board/

CtW Investments Group, which holds over 200,000 shares in Tesla – over $42 million worth of stock as of this writing – as part of its management of union-based pension funds, wants to make a number of changes to the company's governance. Automotive News reports that includes adding two independent directors to the automaker's board, divorcing the roles of chairman and CEO, allowing shareholders to have a say in the annual election of board members, and banning immediate family of board members from serving concurrently on the board. CtW also wants two independent directors to form a committee to analyze the Solar City deal. . . .

CtW's anger, or indeed the furor of every opponent to Tesla's Solar City purchase, isn't difficult to understand. It all seems remarkably shady when you realize that Musk is Solar City's largest shareholder and its chairman, or that the company's CEO is Elon's first cousin. Also damning? Six of Solar City's seven board members have direct ties to the Tesla CEO. . . .

Nepotism and self-serving moves aside, as CNBC explains, Musk's desire for Tesla to purchase Solar City is just bad business. The company is a walking disaster.

"[Solar City] is a company that Goldman Sachs said is the single weakest competitor in its entire sector," Crossing Wall Street editor Eddy Elfenbein said on CNBC's Power Lunch on Wednesday. "The company is burning tons of cash. . . ."
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Thanks for posting this on every thread so we were sure not to miss it.
I did miss the autonomous LEAF thread, but edatoakrun picked it up and posted it there. I felt that an imminent safety issue required the widest possible distribution, at least in the Tesla threads which owners are more likely to read. If it prevents one Model S/X owner from doing some of the idiotic things while using Autopilot we've seen videos of, it's a win; at least owners will be able to decide for themselves if a change in behavior is called for. Also didn't post it in the Model 3 thread as there aren't any yet, and changes will undoubtedly be made before they are released to the public.
 
GRA said:
I felt that an imminent safety issue required the widest possible distribution, at least in the Tesla threads which owners are more likely to read. If it prevents one Model S/X owner from doing some of the idiotic things while using Autopilot we've seen videos of, it's a win; at least owners will be able to decide for themselves if a change in behavior is called for..

Actually, combining that Tesla 17" laptop touch screen with all its functionality and an "autopilot" mode just
"asks for" driver irresponsibility. Besides, why have a UI (user interface) touch screen that results in driver
distractions to make various simple mode changes, e.g. fan speeds, versus a simple knob or button that the
driver intuitively knows its location and requires no "eyes off the road". A good example is the Leaf's radio UI
which limits some modes of operations when the vehicle is moving. The Tesla's UI is analogous to having a
huge cell phone fixed to dash. If cell phone interactions are considered a safety hazard and a vehicle code violation, Tesla's UI surely should be a safety hazard even without autopilot, e.g. the video watching Tesla
fatality. A UI and an autopilot system needs to protect idiots from themselves and others.
 
lorenfb said:
GRA said:
I felt that an imminent safety issue required the widest possible distribution, at least in the Tesla threads which owners are more likely to read. If it prevents one Model S/X owner from doing some of the idiotic things while using Autopilot we've seen videos of, it's a win; at least owners will be able to decide for themselves if a change in behavior is called for..
Actually, combining that Tesla 17" laptop touch screen with all its functionality and an "autopilot" mode just
"asks for" driver irresponsibility. Besides, why have a UI (user interface) touch screen that results in driver
distractions to make various simple mode changes, e.g. fan speeds, versus a simple knob or button that the
driver intuitively knows its location and requires no "eyes off the road". A good example is the Leaf's radio UI
which limits some modes of operations when the vehicle is moving. The Tesla's UI is analogous to having a
huge cell phone fixed to dash. If cell phone interactions are considered a safety hazard and a vehicle code violation, Tesla's UI surely should be a safety hazard even without autopilot, e.g. the video watching Tesla
fatality. A UI and an autopilot system needs to protect idiots from themselves and others.
I've previously made my views known as to the distraction effect of touch screens vs. physical knobs/buttons, so didn't feel the need to belabor the point again. My position is that any control that can be used while driving, and which requires a driver to take their eyes off the road to operate it while doing so should be illegal, but I don't write the regs.
 
Personally, I think TSLA corporate outlook is good, but not great for a number of reasons. The Model 3 announcement appears to have created a bit of an Osborne effect with Model S sales. I suspect that's why TSLA needed to re introduce the lower priced 60kWh entry level Model S.

TSLA track record of meeting delivery dates is not good, so the lack of Model 3 revenue could get serious.

The great news is TSLA is sitting on ~400K reservations for the Model 3. However, unless the federal $7,500 tax credit is modified most of the Model 3 reservation holders won't be eligible. There's a risk some (a lot?) of the reservation holders would drop out. Hopefully the tax law can be modified by then.

My gut tells me TSLA will outsource a portion of the production of the Model 3 in order to satisfy demand ASAP. Mazda is a likely OEM for them to contract with. Mazda does this sort of automobile contract manufacturing. I know Mazda has built cars for FCA and Nissan previously. It appears to be a part of Mazda's business model.

So, if TSLA can get the Model 3 to market on time, scale production, and get the tax credit extended they'll be in great shape!
 
Back
Top