TSLA corporate outlook

[smkettner]

Does the $7,500 drop off or phase out? I thought there was a phase out period.

 

[Zythryn]

Does the $7,500 drop off or phase out? I thought there was a phase out period.

It gets phased out over, as Irecall, a couple of quarters.

Th trick is, Tesla will want to be building as many of the Model 3 as possible so that as many as possible get the rebate.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Thanks for posting this on every thread so we were sure not to miss it.

I did miss the autonomous LEAF thread, but edatoakrun picked it up and posted it there. I felt that an imminent safety issue required the widest possible distribution, at least in the Tesla threads which owners are more likely to read. If it prevents one Model S/X owner from doing some of the idiotic things while using Autopilot we've seen videos of, it's a win; at least owners will be able to decide for themselves if a change in behavior is called for. Also didn't post it in the Model 3 thread as there aren't any yet, and changes will undoubtedly be made before they are released to the public.

as much as I hate to admit it, GRA is right. this story deserves its own thread

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Does the $7,500 drop off or phase out? I thought there was a phase out period.

the $7500 starts its reduction the quarter AFTER the quarter the limit is reached.

This means you could go 6 months minus a day at $7500 after the limit is hit

 

[GRA]

Via IEVS:

Tesla Q2 Deliveries Miss Target By 15% at 14,370, “In Transit” EVs To Blame

http://insideevs.com/tesla-q2-deliveries-miss-target-by-15-at-14370-in-transit-evs-to-blame/

 

[lorenfb]

Via IEVS:

Tesla Q2 Deliveries Miss Target By 15% at 14,370, “In Transit” EVs To Blame

http://insideevs.com/tesla-q2-deliveries-miss-target-by-15-at-14370-in-transit-evs-to-blame/

Since the TSLA price and its movement are highly irrational, most likely no significant stock price change will
occur when the market opens on Tuesday. Just like in politics, if the story is negative, release it over the
weekend to have the least effect, i.e. the TSLA shareholders will be even more "out of touch" with reality.

The Numbers:

WW Q1 - 14.8K, Q2 - 14.4K, Total - 29.2K
U.S. Q1 + Q2 - 19K

Summary
1. The ROW (rest of world) sales typically equaled U.S., but now at about 30% of total.
2. Q2 sales less than Q1.
3. 2016 Guidance 80 - 90K now requires a minimum of 25K per Q3 & Q4 which is basically double
the present sales rate.
4. The WW 2016 YTD sales of 29.2K is ONLY slightly better than the average 2015 sales (half of 51K).

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Wouldn't you expect that whatever cars are in transit but not delivered at the end of the quarter would be offset by the cars that were in the same situation at the end of the preceding quarter?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Wouldn't you expect that whatever cars are in transit but not delivered at the end of the quarter would be offset by the cars that were in the same situation at the end of the preceding quarter?

no. there are a million different reasons for delayed, mislaid shipping issues. Holidays do play a part and most would think the 4th is plenty far enough into Q3 to not matter but that is not always the case. In fact; there are very few hard fast rules in the shipping business.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

So the assertion is that there was a disproportionate number of vehicles that just missed the cutoff for delivery to customers because of the holiday weekend?
IIRC a quarter or two ago the reason was people were on vacation. Seems like you need to pick a date and define a metric then let the chips fall where they may. Any cars that weren't delivered because of the holiday weekend will just fall into this quarter. It wasn't like there was an earthquake... fourth of July weekend was foreseeable.

 

[lorenfb]

So the assertion is that there was a disproportionate number of vehicles that just missed the cutoff for delivery to customers because of the holiday weekend?

Hardly, but it could be the Elon "speak" used in the next conference call.

 

[edatoakrun]

Tesla deliveries were down for two consecutive quarters, and it dropped its production estimate for 2016 to slightly below 80,000.

But IMO, the real challenge may be whether Tesla can drum up demand for S and X models in the second half of the year, in order to sell all the cars it can produce, without having to cut prices much more than it did (with the S60 reintroduction) earlier this year, pushing corporate profitability ever-further into the future.

Tesla Model S deliveries hit an almost two-year low globally, but Tesla is keeping its cards close to the chest

Tesla’s detractors have been claiming that the automaker reached the peak demand for its flagship sedan, the Model S, ever since its first full year of production in 2013. Tesla has proven them wrong over and over again with record-braking deliveries last year, but as evidenced by the company recent results, it will be more difficult to reject allegations of reaching peak demand.

The automaker released its production and delivery numbers yesterday and confirmed having delivered 9,745 Model S and 4,625 Model X.

It’s the first time ever that Tesla has its total quarterly deliveries go down two quarters in a row and the Model S deliveries are at their lowest point since Q3 2014...

While the second quarter delivery results are disappointing and it should reflect poorly on the company’s earnings set for release next month, it’s not all doom and gloom for Tesla, The company appears to be setting things up for an interesting second half of 2016 – both for production, as the company aims to produce 50,000 in the next 6 months, and on base on a product standpoint.

http://electrek.co/2016/07/04/tesla-model-s-deliveries-hit-an-almost-two-year-low-globally-but-tesla-is-keeping-its-cards-close-to-the-chest/

 

[edatoakrun]

A controversy of whether TSLA notified investors (not to mention Tesla owners?) of the May seventh autopilot crash fatality in a timely manor was started with a Fortune article last week.

TSLA has now replied, both articles linked below.

According to TSLA, autopilot is NOT designed to slow down your S or take any other actions to avoid a collision, if a semi truck is directly in your path?

Elon Musk Says Autopilot Death 'Not Material' to Tesla Shareholders
The company and its founder knew about the fatal crash when it sold $2B of stock in May.
When Joshua Brown crashed and died in Florida on May 7 in a Tesla that was operating on autopilot—that is, Brown’s hands were not on the wheel—the car company knew its duty. “Following our standard practice,” Tesla said in a statement issued last Thursday, it “immediately” informed the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration about the accident.

So much for immediacy. The NHTSA sat on that news—of possible interest to the driving public, wouldn’t you say?—until announcing it late last Thursday, June 30. That was almost eight weeks after the accident.

Tesla ( TSLA -1.73% ) did something even more astounding. On May 18, eleven days after Brown died, Tesla and CEO Elon Musk, in combination (roughly three parts Tesla, one part Musk), sold more than $2 billion of Tesla stock in a public offering at a price of $215 per share—and did it without ever having released a word about the crash.

To put things baldly, Tesla and Musk did not disclose the very material fact that a man had died while using an auto-pilot technology that Tesla had marketed vigorously as safe and important to its customers...

http://fortune.com/2016/07/05/elon-musk-tesla-autopilot-stock-sale/

Tesla blasts Fortune reports about fatal crash of Model S on autopilot

Company refutes that disclaimer acknowledged that crash would be material to shareholders


In a growing battle with Fortune, Tesla Motors Inc. published a blog post Wednesday that denied the company knowingly withheld material information from shareholders regarding a fatal collision of a Model S using semiautonomous features...

Tesla laid out the timeline of its investigation after the May 7 collision, which killed Tesla enthusiast Joshua Brown. According to the blog post, the company informed the NHTSA of the crash on May 16, but wasn’t able to actually inspect the car physically until May 18, the day of the $1.5 billion stock offering. The company said it did not finish its review of the car’s data until the end of May.

Tesla also boldly stated that the autopilot system was not at fault for the wreck, which the NHTSA is still investigating.

“To be clear, this accident was the result of a semi-tractor trailer crossing both lanes of a divided highway in front of an oncoming car,” the company’s bog post reads, later adding, “In the moments leading up to the collision, there is no evidence to suggest that Autopilot was not operating as designed and as described to users.”...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-blasts-fortune-reports-about-fatal-crash-of-model-s-on-autopilot-2016-07-06

 

[edatoakrun]

...IMO, the real challenge may be whether Tesla can drum up demand for S and X models in the second half of the year, in order to sell all the cars it can produce, without having to cut prices much more than it did (with the S60 reintroduction) earlier this year, pushing corporate profitability ever-further into the future...

And so it goes.

PCS (and others) are revising their TSLA earnings projections for 2016 to losses.

But still projecting large profits in years forward...from the vehicles TSLA is not actually manufacturing yet.

Tesla Motors 2016 EPS Could Turn Negative

Strong demand for a lower-margin car may hurt gross margins through 2020. Tesla could lose 66 cents a share in 2016.

By Pacific Crest Securities July 5, 2016

Checks indicate initial demand for Tesla Motors’ new, less-expensive car is strong, which would be dilutive to gross margin.

[We are lowering our 2016 EPS estimate to a loss of 66 cents, down from earnings of 44 cents; the 2017 EPS estimate goes to $1.99 from $3.21; the 2018 EPS estimate, to $3.80 from $5.03; the 2019 EPS estimate, to $8.34 from $9.65.]

Our checks with 15 sales centers around the U.S. indicate that demand for the recently launched, lower-priced 60 kilowatt hour (kWh) Model S has gotten off to a solid start, significantly better than the prior 70 kWh Model S that was upgradable to 75 kWh for an additional $2,500.

Specifically, we think that roughly half the demand for non-90 kWh Model S cars is skewing toward this lower-priced, lower-margin car, which we estimate could account for a bit over 10% of total units...

http://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-motors-2016-eps-could-turn-negative-1467824464

 

[GRA]

Via ABG:

Tesla facing SEC inquiry over fatal Autopilot crash
The investigation will determine whether Joshua Brown's death is a material event.

http://www.autoblog.com/2016/07/11/tesla-sec-inquiry-autopilot-death-report/

Sure seems to me that it is, and it shouldn't have been Tesla's decision to make.

 

[lorenfb]

Via ABG:

Tesla facing SEC inquiry over fatal Autopilot crash
The investigation will determine whether Joshua Brown's death is a material event.

http://www.autoblog.com/2016/07/11/tesla-sec-inquiry-autopilot-death-report/

Sure seems to me that it is, and it shouldn't have been Tesla's decision to make.

To again use a fairly well known quote, "What difference does it make?"; given that TSLA is a "cult" stock where irrational
shareholders ignore most all public data, e.g. missed sales guidance, continued increasing GAAP losses, the frequent need
to re-enter the equity markets to support negative cash flows, and the mis-representation of product technology. And most importantly, where stock analysts and brokerages "pump" the stock looking to be part of the next visit to the
"feeding trough".

Neither fundamental nor technical stock analysis has any correlation to the TSLA valuation.

 

[Nubo]

...why have a UI (user interface) touch screen that results in driver
distractions to make various simple mode changes, e.g. fan speeds, versus a simple knob or button that the
driver intuitively knows its location and requires no "eyes off the road". ...

Very much agreed. Technology should be bent to the task, not the other way around. Eyes-off tactile knobs and switches are not only safer, but far more user-effective.

 

[GRA]

...why have a UI (user interface) touch screen that results in driver
distractions to make various simple mode changes, e.g. fan speeds, versus a simple knob or button that the
driver intuitively knows its location and requires no "eyes off the road". ...

Very much agreed. Technology should be bent to the task, not the other way around. Eyes-off tactile knobs and switches are not only safer, but far more user-effective.

While I agree with the comments, it was lorenfb and not me who said them (in this case).

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Model X price cut

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tesla-cuts-starting-price-model-125851333.html

I finally saw one up close at the Tesla store in the mall. Not that what I think matters as I can't (or chose not to) afford a vehicle in that price range but I was pretty unimpressed. Not nearly as practical or versatile as a minivan that EM disdainfully compared it to in the announcement. The third row seat is useless, no place to put your feet, you're wedged in like a sardine. The second row wasn't much better. Those FW doors really do look like about the dumbest idea ever.

Hopefully they have a redesign in the works. It needs to be more of a cab forward configuration (which no doubt creates a styling challenge).

 

[edatoakrun]

Model X price cut

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tesla-cuts-starting-price-model-125851333.html...

...On Wednesday, Barclays analyst Brian Johnson gave Tesla a D grade - just above failing - for financial stewardship, noting that Musk's original 2006 masterplan "dug a $4.2 billion hole" for the company...

Tesla shares were down 1.8 percent in morning trading at $220.58...

And yet the share price remains ~steady.

Many of the faithful apparently still believe that Musk's secret masterplan, part two, will pull tesla out of its dive...

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I don't see any problems that aren't fixable, but the fixing takes time... for their fledgling status these are some costly missteps. The model 3 needs to be toyota camry of EVs or they will be toast, you can't afford these sorts of problems scaling to volumes.